Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company is positioned to benefit significantly from the growing demand for advanced packaging equipment driven by global AI and HPC trends, with a complete equipment matrix covering key processes [1] - The company holds the largest global market share in TCB and has successfully upgraded and mass-produced HB equipment, indicating strong competitive positioning in the advanced packaging sector [1] - The company has seen a continuous increase in new orders for six consecutive quarters, driven by the resonance of AI server demand and domestic market recovery, suggesting a positive outlook for revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in advanced packaging revenue and global market share due to structural expansion in the industry, particularly with the ramp-up of HBM production and ongoing equipment procurement cycles [1] - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products, structural enhancements in SMT, and cost optimization, indicating a turning point in profitability [1] - The geopolitical landscape and domestic substitution trends are expected to enhance the company's market share in China, as it is the only packaging equipment manufacturer capable of supplying ECD, benefiting from local supply chain policies [1] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve revenue of HKD 141.14 billion, 165.73 billion, and 189.05 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% respectively [2] - The expected net profit for the same period is HKD 4.19 billion, 11.13 billion, and 17.15 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 85, 32, and 21 times, indicating a clear growth trajectory [2] - The investment recommendation is to "overweight" the stock based on the company's long-term growth logic, order recovery, and profit structure improvement [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT is experiencing accelerated recovery in its SMT business driven by the resonance of AI server demand and domestic market needs, entering a new upcycle alongside HBM capacity expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: Advanced Packaging Equipment - The global AI and HPC markets are driving rapid penetration of advanced packaging processes such as TCB and Hybrid Bonding, leading to a sustained increase in equipment demand [1] - The company has a comprehensive equipment matrix in advanced packaging, covering key processes including deposition, TCB, HB, Fan-out, and SiP, with the highest global market share in TCB [1] - With the initiation of HBM capacity expansion and the continuation of advanced logic equipment procurement cycles, the company is expected to gain significant incremental growth during the structural expansion of the industry [1] Group 2: Orders and Profitability - The company has seen a continuous year-on-year increase in new orders for six consecutive quarters, with AI server and domestic demand driving the accelerated recovery of SMT [2] - The improvement in the proportion of advanced packaging, structural enhancements in SMT, and cost optimization have led to a turning point in gross margin and profitability, with significant earnings elasticity expected from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 3: Market Share and Geopolitical Factors - In the context of U.S. export controls and accelerated domestic substitution, capital expenditure among domestic packaging and testing firms remains high, benefiting the company as the only vendor capable of supplying ECD in packaging equipment [3] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from supply chain autonomy and domestic policy dividends due to its deep local network and leading customer resources [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from long-term trends in advanced packaging, order recovery, and improvements in profitability structure, with clear growth logic [3] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at HKD 141.14 billion, 165.73 billion, and 189.05 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 4.19 billion, 11.13 billion, and 17.15 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT is experiencing accelerated recovery in its SMT business due to the resonance of AI server demand and domestic market needs, while the SEMI sector is entering a new upcycle with the expansion of HBM capacity. The company is rated "Buy" for the first time [1]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Equipment - The global AI and HPC markets are driving rapid penetration of advanced packaging processes such as TCB and Hybrid Bonding, leading to a sustained increase in equipment demand. The company has a complete equipment matrix in advanced packaging, covering key areas such as deposition, TCB, HB, Fan-out, and SiP, with the highest global market share in TCB. The HB equipment has undergone generational upgrades and is now in mass production. As HBM expansion begins and the equipment procurement cycle for advanced logic continues, the company is expected to gain significant incremental growth during the industry's structural expansion, with increasing revenue and global market share in advanced packaging [2]. Group 2: Orders and Profitability - The company has seen a continuous year-on-year increase in new orders for six consecutive quarters, driven by the resonance of AI server demand and domestic needs, leading to a recovery in SMT. The SEMI sector is also entering a new upcycle with HBM expansion. The increase in the proportion of advanced packaging, improvements in SMT structure, and cost optimization are contributing to a turning point in gross margin and profitability, with significant earnings elasticity expected from 2025 to 2027 [3]. Group 3: Market Share and Geopolitical Factors - In the context of U.S. export controls and accelerated domestic substitution, capital expenditure among domestic packaging and testing companies remains high. As the only packaging equipment manufacturer with ECD supply capabilities, the company is expected to benefit from supply chain autonomy and domestic policy dividends, leveraging its deep local network and leading customer resources [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from long-term trends in advanced packaging, order recovery, and improvements in profitability structure. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 141.14 billion, 165.73 billion, and 189.05 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07%, respectively. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is HKD 4.19 billion, 11.13 billion, and 17.15 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 85, 32, and 21 times for 2025-2027. The company is rated "Buy" for the first time [4].