Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is likely to be bullish, and the short - term situation is mainly controlled by bulls. London gold is expected to continue to rise, with support at 3340 and resistance at 3400 and 3450. London silver has support at 37.2 and resistance at 38 and 38.3. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market fluctuated strongly. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, down 0.08%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.19%. The main reason for the price increase is the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September due to poor US economic data and government pressure on the Fed. Fed's Kashkari said on Wednesday that a rate cut may come soon and still believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. b) This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. In terms of events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy online. On Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. c) Precious Metals Price and Spread - **Price**: SHFE gold main contract is 783.68 yuan/gram, up 0.15%; SGX gold TD is 779.2 yuan/gram, down 0.09%; CME gold main contract is 3431.8 dollars/ounce, down 0.09%. SHFE silver main contract is 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.18%; SGX silver TD is 9148 yuan/kilogram, up 1.06%; CME silver main contract is 37.935 dollars/ounce, up 0.26% [5]. - **Spread**: SHFE - TD gold is 4.48 yuan/gram, up 73.64%; SHFE - TD silver is 34 yuan/kilogram, down 42.5%; CME gold - silver ratio is 90.4653, down 0.36% [5]. d) Inventory and Position - **Gold**: SHFE gold inventory is 36045 kilograms, up 0.1%; CME gold inventory is 1203.0742 tons, down 0.31%; SHFE gold position is 215212 lots, down 1.57%; SPDR gold position is 952.79 tons, down 0.33% [12]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory is 1161.844 tons, up 0.39%; CME silver inventory is 15737.8769 tons, down 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1368.945 tons, up 0.04%; SHFE silver position is 373376 lots, up 1.59%; SLV silver position is 15112.276129 tons, up 0.45% [12]. e) Other Market Data - The US dollar index is 98.2263, down 0.54%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1848, down 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44193.12 points, up 0.18%; WTI crude oil spot is 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 1.24%; LmeS copper 03 is 9674 dollars/ton, up 0.41%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.22%, unchanged; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.88%, up 1.08%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.53%, up 6% [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that the medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals may be bullish. For the short - term, the volatility of London gold is continuously narrowing, and attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the short - term direction choice. The support level for London silver is around 37.3. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally volatile. The market fluctuated sharply due to the news that Trump might fire Powell in advance. The US dollar index is facing key resistance at 99 (60 - day moving average) and 100. The 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed, which may have a negative impact on precious metals in the short term. The influence of the US dollar's appreciation on RMB - denominated precious metals is relatively limited. The surrounding US stocks fluctuated slightly higher, Bitcoin rose, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated [2]. - COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3354.2 per ounce, up 0.52%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.125 per ounce, up 0.04%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.2%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9152 yuan per kilogram, down 0.35% [2]. - Fed's permanent voting member Williams said that the US economy is expected to grow by about 1% this year, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. The overall inflation rate in June may be 2.5%, and the core inflation rate may be 2.75%. Tariffs are in the "initial stage" of affecting the economy and are expected to push up the inflation rate by one percentage point in the remaining time of 2025 and in 2026 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that from the end of May to the beginning of July, economic activity increased slightly, and the economic outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic. Only two regions expected economic activity to grow, while other regions expected it to remain flat or decline slightly [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.3% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.15 tons to 950.79 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14819.29 tons. For inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1212.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. At 22:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the housing market and the outlook for the US economy [4]. 4. Price and Inventory Tables - The precious metals' futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.48% [6]. - The inventory and holding table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and holdings, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kilograms, with no change [14]. 5. Other Market Data - The stock - bond - commodity summary table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, copper, US Treasury yields, etc. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.3222, down 0.31% [20].