评论 零售环境有所波动，4Q25 主品牌运营稳健。4Q25 特步主品牌零售流水同比持平，其中线上渠道尤其是 直播电商表现较好。逐月来看，10-11 月受黄金周及双十一促销影响表现稳健，但12 月受天气影响表现 相对一般。虽然零售环境有所波动，特步主品牌零售折扣维持七至七五折，环比保持稳定。12 月末公 司渠道库存周转 4.5 个月，仍保持健康水平。功能性品类延续较好表现，全年来看，跑步品类零售额同 比实现双位数增长。 机构：中金公司 研究员：林骥川/宋习缘/杨润渤 公司动态 公司近况 公司公布2025 年第四季度营运情况：特步主品牌零售流水同比持平，零售折扣七至七五折，12 月末渠 道库存周转4.5 个月；Saucony品牌零售流水同比增长超30%。 盈利预测与估值 基本维持公司2025/26 年EPS预测0.49/0.55 元不变，引入27 年EPS预测0.61 元，当前股价对应8 倍 2026 年市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑行业估值中枢下移，下调目标价11%至6.47港元，对应26 年11x P/E，较当前股价有27%的上行空间。 风险 行业竞争加剧，终端零售环境不及预期，渠道转型不及预期。 Sauco ...

公司公布2025年第四季度营运情况：特步主品牌零售流水同比持平，零售折扣七至七五折，12月末渠道 库存周转4.5个月；Saucony品牌零售流水同比增长超30%。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基本维持特步国际(01368)2025/26年EPS预测0.49/0.55元不变，引 入27年EPS预测0.61元，当前股价对应8倍 2026 年市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑行业估值中枢下 移，下调目标价11%至6.47港元，对应26年11x P/E，较当前股价有27%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 公司近况 26年主品牌注重提升线下店效，索康尼品牌高端化 特步主品牌线下渠道逐步优化提升，管理层表示4Q25已回收200家门店转为DTC模式，26年继续按计划 推进。新店型方面，2H25公司分别在西安、上海南翔开设金标领跑店，截至目前表现符合公司预期， 26年计划新开设20-30家金标领跑店。公司继续加快精选奥莱门店布局，25年已开出20+门店，规划在26 年开设70-100家精选奥莱店，已有门店月店效超100万元。索康尼方面，管理层规划2026年线下加强高 端运动形象，切入高端消费群体，渠道升级以提升店效，产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady operational performance in Q3 2025 despite fluctuations in the retail environment, with the main brand's retail revenue showing low single-digit growth year-on-year, driven by functional products and strong sales in running and outdoor categories [1][2]. Group 1: Main Brand Performance - The main brand's retail revenue grew low single digits year-on-year, primarily driven by functional products, with double-digit growth in running and outdoor categories [1]. - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, indicating a consistent pricing strategy [1]. - Channel inventory turnover at the end of September was healthy, ranging from 4 to 4.5 months [1]. Group 2: Saucony Brand Growth - The Saucony brand experienced over 20% year-on-year growth in retail revenue, with offline sales increasing by over 30% and average store efficiency exceeding 400,000 yuan per month [2]. - The management plans to continue expanding offline channels and capitalize on online promotional events in Q4 2025, aiming for a 30%+ year-on-year revenue increase for Saucony [2]. - The brand opened 16 new stores in key commercial areas, bringing the total to over 170 stores by the end of September [2]. Group 3: Channel Transformation and Future Plans - The company is actively optimizing its offline channel strategy, planning to convert over 100 stores to a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The company is accelerating its presence in shopping malls and outlet channels, with plans to open 70-100 selected outlet stores between 2025 and 2026 [2]. - Current monthly sales for opened outlet stores have reached over 1 million yuan [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.50 and 0.55 yuan, respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to 11 and 10 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios, with a target price of 7.23 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that Xtep International (01368) reported its operational performance for Q3 2025, with core brand Xtep retail sales growth meeting expectations, while Saucony brand growth exceeded 20%, slightly below expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xtep International's full-year performance guidance was reaffirmed, with Xtep brand achieving positive growth and Saucony brand growth exceeding 30%, alongside a net profit increase of over 10% [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted the net profit forecast for Xtep International for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 down by 2% to 3%, primarily reflecting a decline in the profitability of the Bubugao brand and a slowdown in Saucony's growth [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The target price for Xtep International was reduced from HKD 7.1 to HKD 6.8, reflecting overall industry demand weakness and short-term market sentiment under discount trends [1] - The current expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 is 9 times, which is considered reasonable, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Xtep International (01368) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 6.77, with a trading volume of HKD 65.27 million [1] - Xtep International reported a revenue of RMB 6.838 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.14% [1] - The profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 914 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.47% [1] Group 2 - The interim dividend declared is HKD 0.18 per share, compared to HKD 0.156 in the same period last year [1] - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the mass sports segment, which saw a 4.5% increase to RMB 6.1 billion, attributed to strong online channel performance and increased consumer engagement [1] - Goldman Sachs noted that Xtep's net profit for the first half of the year exceeded their forecast by 12%, mainly due to higher-than-expected other income and earnings, while core business revenue met expectations [1] Group 3 - The management indicated that the retail sales growth rate for the core Xtep brand and Saucony brand accelerated in July compared to the previous year [1] - CMB International believes that Xtep's performance in the first half of the year surpassed expectations, and the retail sales growth trend for the third quarter is promising [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the long-term sales and profitability of the Saucony brand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has set a new target price of HKD 7.1 for Xtep International (01368), up from HKD 7, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to attractive risk-reward dynamics [1] Financial Performance - Xtep International's net profit for the first half of the year exceeded Goldman Sachs' forecast by 12%, driven by higher-than-expected other income and revenue, while core business revenue met expectations [1] - The company has reiterated its guidance, expecting a net profit growth of over 10% year-on-year for 2025, supported by positive sales growth and a cautiously optimistic outlook for the consumer environment in the second half of 2025 [1] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs remains encouraged by the robust growth in Xtep's core business, particularly in the running market, despite uncertainties related to non-functional products and the macroeconomic environment [1] - The firm holds a constructive view on the long-term sales and profitability of the Saucony brand [1] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Following the better-than-expected net profit in the first half of the year, Goldman Sachs has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 0% to 1.5%, reflecting minor downward adjustments in sales forecasts for the Xtep brand due to macroeconomic factors and direct sales transformation [1] - Increased sales and management expenses for both brands in the second half of the year are expected to be offset by higher-than-expected other income and revenue [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has set a new target price of HKD 7.1 for Xtep International (01368), up from the previous HKD 7, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025 [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep International, citing attractive risk-reward dynamics [1] - Xtep International's net profit for the first half of the year exceeded Goldman Sachs' forecast by 12%, driven by higher-than-expected other income and revenue, while core business revenue met expectations [1] Group 2 - The company reiterated its guidance, expecting a net profit growth of over 10% year-on-year for 2025, supported by positive sales growth and a cautiously optimistic outlook for the consumption environment in the second half of 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs remains encouraged by the robust growth in the running market for Xtep's core business, despite uncertainties in non-functional products and the macro environment [1] - The firm holds a constructive view on the long-term sales and profitability of the Saucony brand [1] Group 3 - Following the positive earnings report, Goldman Sachs has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for Xtep International for 2025 to 2027 by 0% to 1.5%, reflecting minor downward adjustments in brand sales forecasts due to macroeconomic factors and direct sales transformation [1] - Increased sales and management expenses for both brands in the second half of the year are expected, but these are offset by higher-than-expected other income and revenue [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that Xtep International's net profit for the first half exceeded their forecast by 12%, primarily due to higher-than-expected other income and revenue, while core business revenue met expectations [1] - The company reaffirmed its guidance, expecting net profit to grow by over 10% year-on-year by 2025, based on positive sales growth and a cautiously optimistic outlook for the consumer environment in the second half of 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs maintained its view after listening to Xtep International's earnings briefing, expressing encouragement regarding the robust growth in the running market and a constructive outlook on the long-term sales and profitability of the Saucony brand [1] - The target price for Xtep was slightly raised from HKD 7 to HKD 7.1, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025, with an attractive risk-reward profile leading to a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep's FY25E guidance remains intact despite a slight miss in 2Q25, with expectations for sales growth to sustain into 2H25E due to low inventory levels and undemanding valuation, maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of HK$ 7.20 based on 14x FY25E P/E [1][4] Sales Performance - Retail sales growth for Xtep slowed in 2Q25 but remained on track for 1H25, with management maintaining FY25E guidance of positive group-level sales growth and 10%+ net profit growth [2][4] - Xtep's core brand is expected to achieve FY25E guidance, driven by robust growth in the running segment, which saw a 30%+ YoY increase in 1H25E [3][4] Inventory and Discounts - Xtep's inventory to sales ratio was about 4 to 4.5 months in 2Q25, indicating a healthy inventory level, while retail discounts remained stable at 25% to 30% off [5][4] - Management expects inventory and discount conditions to remain stable for FY25E, with the inventory to sales ratio projected to stay around 4 to 4.5 months [5][4] E-commerce and Offline Growth - E-commerce sales growth was around 10% in 2Q25, with offline sales growth lagging, but retail sales growth improved in July 2025, driven by increased summer demand and promotional activities [6][4] - Saucony brand is experiencing a re-acceleration in growth supported by offline SSSG and new store openings, despite a temporary slowdown in e-commerce [6][4] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - The DTC transformation is ongoing, with plans to repurchase 100 to 200 stores in 4Q25E and 300 to 400 stores in FY26E, funded by internal cash flow [7][8] - The company is also set to upgrade its management system for products and members to enhance efficiency under the DTC model [8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Xtep International at 0.50/0.55 HKD for 2025/26, with a target price of 6.90 HKD, indicating a 29% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Xtep Brand Performance - In Q2 2025, Xtep's main brand retail revenue grew by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, driven by professional categories [2] - The running and outdoor categories led overall growth, with running sales in the first half of 2025 increasing by double digits [2] - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with channel inventory turnover at 4-4.5 months by the end of June [2] Group 2: Saucony and Merrell Growth - Saucony brand saw retail revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, focusing on high-end urban consumers and running categories [3] - The brand plans to accelerate offline channel expansion in the second half of 2025, targeting a 30-40% year-on-year revenue growth for the full year [3] - Merrell brand experienced over 50% retail revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on online channel development [3] Group 3: Channel Transformation - The company plans to gradually reclaim 100-200 Xtep main brand stores for DTC transformation in Q4 2025, with a capital expenditure of approximately 400 million HKD [4] - The number of stores involved in the DTC transformation is relatively low, and the management expects limited impact on overall revenue for 2025-2026 [4] - Future plans include accelerating the layout of Xtep main brand in shopping centers and outlet channels, which currently account for about 30% [4]