如今在回归千亿美元市值的路上起起伏伏。 被称为东南亚 "腾讯+阿里"的 Sea Limited（冬海集团） ，在经历了 2021年股市高光时刻、市值超过 2000亿美元之后进入狂跌，在2023年8月甚至被腰斩到1成。 其实2025年9月11日， Sea的ADR价格曾一度摸高至199美元，总市值超过1100亿美元。但三个月后又跌 去37%，如今最新在720亿美元附近。当然，比起22年23年谷底时已经明媚很多。 在这几年的股价爬升又跌宕的过程中， "超长期投资者" Baillie Gifford 不离不弃，在大跌后的 2022年上 半年开始持续加仓，直到2023年9月底成为二级市场的第一大机构持有人。 这 是一家让国内外顶级机构都 "重注"过的公司。早年，腾讯是其最大股东，曾持有超过20%的股份，并为 其核心游戏《Free Fire》提供了初期的产品和技术支持。 公开信息显示，腾讯 2022年 初 大幅减持后，转为长期财务投资者，影响力和控制权明显下降，目前持股 比例 18. 7 %。 Sea 的股东中不乏 挪威央行主权基金 、普信集团、 景林资产等 知名机构， 值得一提的是，张坤 管理的易 方达 亚洲精选 基金 ...

Core Insights - Deep-pocketed investors have adopted a bearish approach towards Sea, indicating potential significant market movements ahead [1] - The options activity for Sea shows a divided sentiment among investors, with 53% bearish and 26% bullish [2] Options Activity - A total of 15 extraordinary options activities were recorded for Sea, with puts totaling $724,206 and calls amounting to $864,295 [2] - The major market movers are focusing on a price range between $72.5 and $180.0 for Sea over the last three months [3] Volume and Open Interest - Insights into volume and open interest reveal key trends in liquidity and interest levels for Sea's options at specific strike prices [4] - A snapshot of the trends in volume and open interest for calls and puts indicates significant trading activity within the strike price range of $72.5 to $180.0 over the past month [4] Largest Options Trades - Notable options trades include a bearish put trade with a total price of $493.5K at a strike price of $115.00, and several call trades with varying sentiments and strike prices [8] Company Overview - Sea operates Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platform, Shopee, and has expanded from its origins in gaming with Garena [9] - As of March 31, 2024, the founder, Forrest Xiaodong Li, holds 59.8% of voting power, while Tencent owns 18.2% of issued shares [9] Analyst Opinions - Industry analysts propose an average target price of $185.0 for Sea, with varying ratings and target prices from different firms, including a Hold rating from TD Cowen and a Buy rating from Deutsche Bank [11][12] Current Market Status - Trading volume for Sea stands at 2,204,228, with the stock price at $138.2, reflecting a 1.4% increase [14] - Earnings announcement is expected in 97 days, indicating a potential catalyst for future price movements [14]

Core Insights - Sea Ltd. announced a buyback plan of up to $1 billion for its American shares, reflecting the company's confidence in its long-term prospects [1][2] - Sea's stock rose over 3% to $145.49 in morning trades following the announcement [2] - The company operates the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia, Shopee, and has expanded into Latin America, alongside other holdings like SeaMoney and Garena [3] Financial Performance - Sea reported third-quarter sales growth of 38% year-over-year, reaching $5.99 billion, which exceeded estimates [5] - Earnings per share increased by 146% to 59 cents, although this was below the expected 72 cents [5] - Year-to-date, Sea's stock is up approximately 33%, despite a more than 25% decline from its 52-week high of $199.30 reached on September 11 [6] Market Position and Competition - The stock has faced pressure due to rising competition in the e-commerce sector, particularly in Latin America and Southeast Asia [4][5] - Sea's Relative Strength score has decreased to 31 out of 99, down from 93 three months ago, indicating a weakening position in the market [7] - The overall e-commerce sector has seen a pullback after a strong performance in the first nine months of the year, with the cumulative Relative Strength rating for the Retail-Internet industry group dropping from 98 to 76 [7] Ratings and Analyst Insights - Sea holds an IBD Composite Rating of 70 out of 99, which combines five proprietary ratings [8] - Analyst Scott Devitt from Wedbush maintains an outperform rating for Sea stock despite concerns over near-term e-commerce margins due to increased competition [5]

Core Insights - Financial giants have shown a bullish sentiment towards Sea, with 47% of traders being bullish and 23% bearish, indicating a positive outlook on the stock [1] - The predicted price range for Sea over the last three months has been targeted between $120.0 and $200.0 by large investors [2] - Analysts have set an average price target of $188.0 for Sea, with various firms providing differing ratings and targets [10][11] Options Analysis - A total of 17 unusual trades were identified for Sea, with 11 puts valued at $550,337 and 6 calls valued at $334,090 [1] - The analysis of volume and open interest reveals significant liquidity and interest in Sea's options, particularly within the strike price range of $120.0 to $200.0 [3] - The snapshot of options trading indicates a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with notable trades including a bearish call and several puts with varying sentiments [8] Company Overview - Sea operates Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platform, Shopee, and has expanded from its origins in gaming with Garena [9] - The company also provides financial services through SeaMoney, which includes lending, payment, digital banking, and insurance [9] - As of March 31, 2024, the founder, Forrest Xiaodong Li, holds 59.8% of voting power, while Tencent owns 18.2% of issued shares without voting power [9] Current Market Position - Sea's current trading volume stands at 3,519,593, with the stock price at $139.69, reflecting a slight decrease of -0.25% [13] - The stock is approaching oversold conditions according to RSI indicators, suggesting potential for price movement [13] - An earnings announcement is expected in 109 days, which could impact future trading and investor sentiment [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue reached $6 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 68% to $874 million [4][34] - Shopee's GMV increased by over 28% year-on-year, with gross orders rising by 28% to 3.6 billion [4][34] - Digital financial services revenue grew by 61% year-on-year to $990 million, with adjusted EBITDA up by 37% to $258 million [20][34] - Digital entertainment bookings increased by 51% year-on-year to $841 million, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 48% [26][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce: Shopee achieved record highs in GMV, gross order volume, and revenue, with a GAAP marketplace revenue of $3.8 billion, up 37% year-on-year [5][34] - Digital Financial Services: The loan book expanded to $7.9 billion, up 70% year-on-year, with a stable 90-day NPL ratio of 1.1% [21][36] - Digital Entertainment: Garena's bookings were up 51% year-on-year, driven by successful campaigns for Free Fire [27][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, Shopee's GMV growth outpaced the market, with significant improvements in delivery speed and reliability [19][20] - In Taiwan, GMV showed double-digit growth year-on-year, with a strong logistics network supporting growth [11][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue delivering high and profitable growth across all three business lines, focusing on enhancing logistics capabilities and buyer engagement [4][5] - Investments in logistics and fulfillment are seen as critical for long-term competitiveness and profitability [7][12] - The company is leveraging AI to improve consumer retail experiences, enhancing product discovery and seller engagement [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining growth momentum, with expectations for Shopee's full-year 2025 GMV growth to exceed 25% [20][34] - The competitive landscape is viewed as stable, with no significant changes noted in market dynamics [54] - The company is optimistic about the future, particularly in expanding its digital financial services and enhancing user engagement through programs like Shopee VIP [15][19] Other Important Information - The Shopee VIP membership program has seen a 75% increase in members, indicating strong user engagement [15][71] - The company is focused on a capital-efficient approach to logistics, primarily leasing rather than purchasing land and warehouses [14][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth guidance for 2025 and margin trends - Management indicated that the growth guidance reflects current market momentum and competitive landscape, with expectations for a 2-3% EBITDA margin improvement [40][41] Question: Investment areas affecting margins - Management noted that investments in logistics and fulfillment are contributing to margin fluctuations, but overall improvements are expected [40][42] Question: New market entry strategy and Argentina - The rationale for entering Argentina is to leverage existing capabilities from Brazil, with a focus on operational synergies [46][47] Question: Market shares in ASEAN and Taiwan - Management believes they are gaining market share in South Asia and are confident in their position in Taiwan despite competition [49][50] Question: Competitive landscape in Southeast Asia - The competitive landscape is stable, with no significant changes noted, and management does not foresee a major impact from live streaming peers [52][54] Question: Logistics fulfillment percentage and cost outlook - More than half of orders are fulfilled by SPX, with continuous improvements in cost per order and delivery speed [59][60] Question: Outlook for Free Fire in 2026 - Management remains optimistic about Free Fire's growth, with plans for new IP collaborations and game launches [63][64] Question: VIP membership unit economics - The VIP program is still in early stages, with a focus on improving retention and ensuring benefits for both users and partners [71][72] Question: AI investments and applications - Management is excited about AI's potential to enhance user experience and operational efficiency, focusing on practical applications rather than large-scale infrastructure investments [74][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue reached $6 billion, representing a 38% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 68% to $874 million [4][33] - Shopee's GMV increased by over 28% year-on-year, with gross orders rising by 28% to $3.6 billion [4][33] - Digital financial services revenue grew by 61% year-on-year to $990 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 37% to $258 million [20][34] - Digital entertainment bookings rose by 51% year-on-year to $841 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 48% to $466 million [27][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce: Shopee achieved record highs in GMV, gross order volume, and revenue, with a significant increase in ad revenue by over 70% [5][34] - Digital Financial Services: The loan book expanded by 70% year-on-year to $7.9 billion, with a stable 90-day NPL ratio at 1.1% [21][36] - Digital Entertainment: Garena's performance was bolstered by successful campaigns, leading to a 51% increase in bookings [27][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, Shopee's GMV growth outpaced the market, with delivery speed improving significantly, allowing for expansion into higher-value product categories [19][20] - In Taiwan, Shopee's GMV showed double-digit growth year-on-year, with a strong logistics network enhancing delivery capabilities [10][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance logistics and fulfillment capabilities as core pillars of its strategy, focusing on improving service quality and price competitiveness [6][11] - Continued investment in AI to enhance consumer retail experiences and improve monetization through smarter search and personalized content [15][16] - The Shopee VIP membership program has gained traction, with a 75% increase in members, indicating strong user engagement [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitable growth across all business lines, with expectations for Shopee's full-year GMV growth to exceed 25% [20][32] - The competitive landscape remains stable, with the company gaining market share in Southeast Asia and Taiwan [53][54] - Future investments will focus on logistics and fulfillment to strengthen competitive advantages without significant capital expenditure [62][64] Other Important Information - The company is exploring opportunities in Argentina while winding down operations in Chile and Colombia to focus resources on key priorities [52] - The standalone ShopeePay app is gaining traction, with over 20% of monthly transacting users utilizing it [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth guidance for 2025 and margin trends - Management indicated that the growth guidance reflects current market momentum and competitive landscape, with expectations for a 2-3% EBITDA margin improvement over time [41][42] Question: New market entry strategy and market shares - The rationale for closing cross-border operations in some regions was to focus on key business priorities, with confidence in gaining market share in ASEAN and Taiwan [46][53] Question: Competitive landscape in Southeast Asia - Management noted a stable competitive landscape, with no significant changes in market dynamics impacting growth [56][60] Question: Logistics fulfillment and Garena's outlook - More than half of orders are fulfilled by SPX, with continuous improvements in delivery speed and cost contributing to growth [67][68] - Garena remains optimistic about Free Fire's growth, with plans for new IP collaborations and game launches [71][76] Question: VIP membership unit economics and AI investments - The VIP program is in early stages, with strong growth in user sign-ups and retention rates being closely monitored [80][81] - AI investments will focus on practical applications to enhance user experience and operational efficiency, avoiding large capital expenditures [89][90]

Core Insights - Sea Limited is a significant player in the digital economy, operating through three main segments: Shopee, SeaMoney, and Garena [1] - The company is preparing to release its third-quarter earnings on November 11, 2025, with analysts expecting an EPS of $1.03, a 90.7% increase from the previous year, and projected revenue of $5.97 billion, reflecting a 39.9% year-over-year growth [2][6] Shopee Segment - Shopee has achieved a 25% increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and maintains market leadership in Brazil, contributing significantly to the company's growth [2][6] SeaMoney Segment - SeaMoney's loan book has expanded by 90%, with stable credit quality, which is expected to drive a 60% year-over-year revenue increase for this segment [3][6] Garena Segment - Garena continues to contribute to revenue momentum with over 100 million daily users, although it faces margin pressure and risks related to user stability, particularly due to reliance on the game Free Fire [4] Historical Performance - Sea Limited has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 12.14%, and the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downwards by 1.4% over the past 30 days [5]

Core Insights - Sea Limited (SE) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on November 11, with earnings estimated at $1.03 per share, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous 30 days, compared to 54 cents per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected at $5.97 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 39.90% [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - Shopee's sustained momentum is anticipated to positively impact Sea Limited's performance, with Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growing 25% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, and continued growth expected into the third quarter. Shopee has achieved record quarters and remains the market leader in Brazil, marking its fifth anniversary with significant growth and profitability [3][8]. - SeaMoney's rapid loan book expansion, reaching approximately $6.9 billion with a nearly 90% year-over-year growth, is expected to support performance. The fintech arm maintains a stable 90-day non-performing loan ratio of around 1.0%, reflecting disciplined risk management and robust portfolio health [4][8]. - Garena's strong gaming performance, driven by multiple titles achieving double-digit growth and a massive global player base exceeding 100 million daily active users, is likely to enhance Sea Limited's results. Management has raised full-year bookings guidance to over 30% year-over-year, indicating confidence in sustained engagement and monetization [5][8]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Sea Limited's focus on expansion in e-commerce and fintech has led to significantly higher operating expenditures, with sales and marketing expenses increasing nearly 30% year-over-year to about $1.0 billion. This aggressive investment strategy may pressure profitability in the upcoming quarter [6]. - The company's current Earnings ESP stands at -6.5% with a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating that the model does not predict an earnings beat this time [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Sea Limited has reached a $40 million settlement to resolve a federal securities class action alleging misleading information to investors regarding its secondary offering of American Depositary Shares and Notes in September 2021 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Sea's 2023 full-year results showed total GAAP revenue of $13.06 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, with net income of $162.7 million compared to a loss of $1.65 billion in 2022 [5]. - By fiscal 2024, revenue surged 28.8% to $16.82 billion, and net income tripled to $447.8 million, reflecting a successful pivot toward profitability [5][6]. - The settlement represents 0.306% of 2023 revenue, 1.42% of cash and equivalents, and 24.58% of net income, indicating it is manageable given Sea's cash cushion of $2.81 billion and positive operating cash flow of $934.7 million [6][7]. Business Risks and Challenges - The case highlighted concentration risk in Sea's digital entertainment business, particularly with Free Fire, which was a significant revenue driver before its ban in India [2][3]. - The company faces intensified competition from TikTok Shop and Lazada, which are investing heavily in Southeast Asia [14]. Strategic Initiatives - Sea is restructuring operations, reducing sales and marketing costs from 26.3% of revenue in 2022 to 20.8% by 2024 while achieving revenue growth [12]. - The company has built SPX Express, its logistics network, which now handles 50% of deliveries in Asia and 70% in Brazil, reducing delivery costs significantly [12]. - Leadership changes include adding two independent directors to enhance governance and focus on AI innovation [13]. Market Response - Following the August 2023 disclosure that triggered litigation, Sea's shares rebounded sharply from a low of $40.58 to around $154–160 by late October 2025, reflecting renewed investor confidence [8][9]. - The stock surged over 195% in 2024, indicating potential for sustained turnaround if the company successfully executes its strategic plans [14].

Core Insights - Matthews International Capital Management sold 106,055 shares of Sea Limited in Q3 2025, valued at approximately $18.17 million, reducing its stake to 8.87% of its 13F AUM, while maintaining it as the second-largest holding [1][2][3] Company Overview - Sea Limited's stock price as of October 16, 2025, was $162.65, with a market capitalization of $95.24 billion, revenue of $19.42 billion, and net income of $1.20 billion for the trailing twelve months [4] - The company operates in three main segments: digital entertainment (Garena), e-commerce (Shopee), and digital financial services (SeaMoney), serving consumers and small-to-medium businesses primarily in Southeast Asia and Latin America [5][6] Performance Metrics - Sea Limited's shares increased by 63.68% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 54 percentage points during the same period [3] - The company has shown a sales growth of 29% over the last year and is now consistently generating positive net income and free cash flow [11] Investment Context - Matthews International Capital Management initially acquired Sea Limited shares in early 2024 when the stock was priced between $50 and $70, and despite selling two-thirds of its holdings, Sea still represents 9% of Matthews' portfolio [9][10] - The stock is currently trading at 41 times forward earnings, which is considered slightly expensive, but the company's growth potential may justify this valuation [12]