盛科通信-U（688702） 2025 年业绩快报点评：研发驱动短期承压， 继续看好 Switch 芯片产业趋势 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·半导体 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,037 | 1,082 | 1,151 | 1,783 | 2,294 | | 同比（%） | 35.17 | 4.28 | 6.39 | 54.91 | 28.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (19.53) | (68.26) | (149.91) | 52.07 | 131.49 | | 同比（%） | 33.62 | (249.52) | (119.59) | 134.73 | 152.53 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.05) | (0.17) | (0.37) | 0.13 | 0.32 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (3,864.72) | (1,105.71) | (5 ...

【东吴电子陈海进】持续看好Switch芯片稀缺标的盛科通信！ 国产超节点方案从0到1，看好以太网路径&第三方芯片卡位 #AI算力-存力-运力三阶段逻辑次第演绎，当前是"AI运力"最佳布局点，"让整个超节点的GPU共同组成一个大的 GPU，实现互联互通无损耗"是下一轮AI超节点核心逻辑！而以太网凭借简单易用、生态优势、带宽容量领先，有 望成为更优技术路径。 #盛科通信在国产Switch环节的稀缺 【东吴电子陈海进】持续看好Switch芯片稀缺标的盛科通信！ 国产超节点方案从0到1，看好以太网路径&第三方芯片卡位 #AI算力-存力-运力三阶段逻辑次第演绎，当前是"AI运力"最佳布局点，"让整个超节点的GPU共同组成一个大的 GPU，实现互联互通无损耗"是下一轮AI超节点核心逻辑！而以太网凭借简单易用、生态优势、带宽容量领先，有 望成为更优技术路径。 #盛科通信在国产Switch环节的稀缺性凸显。 早先英伟达时代，NVGPU+ NVLink Switch共同掌握AI"霸权"。 不同于训练时代NVIDIA独占的封闭体系，推理市场的加速芯片更加多样，"第三方"的市场有望走向繁荣。 尤其是国产端，以寒武纪为代表的第三方A ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **2026 Electronic Industry Predictions**, particularly in the **cloud computing** and **AI** sectors, highlighting significant trends and developments expected in the coming years [2][3][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Cloud Computing Sector - The **domestic cloud computing** sector, especially **domestic computing power**, is anticipated to experience substantial growth by the end of 2026, with major wafer fabs expected to release ample capacity, alleviating previous supply constraints [2][3]. - **ByteDance's** data consumption has shown remarkable growth, increasing from approximately **15-16 trillion** in May 2025 to over **50 trillion** by December 2025, indicating strong demand for domestic computing power [2]. - The **demand for domestic computing power** is projected to exceed **100 trillion** by mid-2026, setting a solid foundation for the performance of domestic computing companies [2][3]. - Leading companies like **Cambricon** and **Hygon** are expected to dominate in capacity supply and local government bidding, benefiting from the rising demand for inference chips, with **ASIC chips** likely to become as significant as **GPU** chips [2][3]. - The **domestic CS market** is under increasing pressure for localization, with local suppliers like **Shenghe Jingwei** expected to capture more market share in supercomputing nodes [2][3]. Edge Computing Sector - The **edge computing (SOC)** sector is set to benefit from the AI innovation wave, with smart hardware products such as glasses and robots expected to see significant development opportunities [4]. - The emergence of **multi-modal applications** (e.g., smart assistants) is anticipated to drive adjustments in app developers' permission management, leading to a diverse market landscape in 2026 [4]. 3D DRAM Technology - Despite slower-than-expected progress in the **3D DRAM** supply chain in 2025, optimism remains for 2026, with collaborations between **Zhaoyi Innovation** and leading companies indicating potential breakthroughs and new application scenarios [5]. Upcoming Trends and Technologies - Several key technology and product trends are expected in the second half of 2025, including the launch of specialized 3D hardware for mobile and automotive applications, which will enhance edge computing and storage capabilities [6][7]. - The **AI terminal devices** market is projected to gain traction, with major North American clients like **OpenAI** planning to introduce smart terminal products, potentially driving hardware sales and a replacement wave [7]. - The **domestic wafer foundry industry** is also highlighted, with leading companies like **SMIC** and **Huahong** expanding capacity, ensuring that the N2 process will no longer be a bottleneck for computing power development by 2026 [7]. Power Supply and Infrastructure - The **power density** in data centers is rapidly increasing, with **HVDC** (High Voltage Direct Current) expected to become a core focus in 2026, facilitating electrification upgrades and creating new growth opportunities [8][9]. - Upgrades in server power supply technology are anticipated to enhance the value of embedded modules and advanced cooling technologies, with companies like **Oulutong** and **Weiergao** positioned to benefit [9]. New Infrastructure and Advanced Packaging - The **new infrastructure** sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026, particularly in the **PCB** segment, with new products like **CO2 laser drilling** and advanced packaging set to achieve full-scale production [10][11]. - Advanced packaging products are expected to gradually achieve mass production among leading packaging and testing manufacturers, indicating a shift from demo machines to essential products in the next two years [11]. Additional Important Insights - The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in the electronic industry, particularly in cloud computing, edge computing, and new infrastructure, as these areas are poised for significant growth and investment opportunities in the near future [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape of Switch chip manufacturers, with NVIDIA dominating the market through proprietary protocols, while Broadcom is gaining traction with its open-source SUE architecture [6][13] - It emphasizes the potential for domestic manufacturers to replace imported Switch chips, with companies like Shengke Communication leading the way in Ethernet chip production [35] - The report suggests investment in key players such as Haiguang Information and Shengke Communication, while also recommending attention to companies like ZTE and Lanke Technology [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Switch Chip Manufacturers - NVIDIA's NVSwitch is noted as the highest bandwidth and most mature private solution in the Scale-Up segment [11] - Broadcom holds a 90% market share in cloud data center switches and has introduced the SUE architecture for open Ethernet interconnects [13] - Astera Labs is recognized for its complete product chain, being the only company that integrates switch chips, extension lines, and software management platforms [20] 2. Achieving Domestic Replacement of Switch Chips - Shengke Communication is identified as a leading domestic Ethernet switch chip manufacturer, with 12.8T and 25.6T chips entering customer promotion stages [35] - Other domestic players like Shudao Technology and Lanke Technology are making strides in the PCIe segment, with Shudao expected to achieve breakthroughs in domestic replacement by the end of 2025 [41] - Major manufacturers such as Haiguang, Huawei, and ZTE are also developing self-researched chips to support domestic replacement efforts [43][45][50] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Haiguang Information and Shengke Communication for investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on ZTE, Wantong Development, and Lanke Technology [6][35]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The domestic computing power sector is benefiting from policy implementation and overseas market trends, with an overall positive outlook for the second half of the year. There is potential for significant price increases from late August to the end of the year as major companies provide KPI guidance and mid-year financial reports [1][2][19]. Key Companies and Recommendations - **Cambricon (寒武纪)**: Recommended as a key player in the domestic GPU and ASIC segments. If the n+2 expansion proceeds smoothly by the second half of 2025, the expected capacity could reach over 600 billion, supporting a substantial market valuation [1][5]. - **New Yuan Co. (新元股份)**: Still presents investment opportunities in the second half of the year, particularly due to its collaboration with Alibaba and potential overperformance in film progress, which could lead to a strong stock price reaction [1][8]. - **Switch Chip Sector**: Expected to grow significantly, with domestic companies like Shenghe Communication (盛和通信) likely to see major catalysts. The market for non-NVIDIA computing chips is projected to reach approximately $3.8 billion by 2026 [1][10][11]. - **ZTE and Hua Hong Semiconductor**: Both companies have positive expectations for Q3 and Q4, with ZTE launching new technologies and products, indicating strategic importance [1][14]. Market Dynamics - The domestic computing power sector has shown significant market performance since June, driven by supply and demand changes and chip testing progress. The overall trend remains positive despite some fluctuations [2][19]. - The relationship between GPU and ASIC segments is characterized by shared growth opportunities, with both experiencing high demand and tight supply [6]. Financial Projections and Market Size - The market for PCIe switch chips is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of approximately $3.8 billion by 2026, potentially doubling by 2027 as technology upgrades occur [11]. - **Yongxin Electronics (永新电子)**: Expected to benefit from advanced manufacturing and domestic GPU client integration, with projections indicating a potential market valuation of up to 400 billion if certain sales targets are met [18][21]. Investment Opportunities - The recent adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market provides a good opportunity for investors to reposition, particularly in companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor, which is expected to have significant future developments [15][16]. - The domestic advanced packaging sector, including companies like Yuxi Electronics (有锡电子) and Yongxin Electronics, is highlighted as having substantial growth potential due to their roles as suppliers to major GPU clients [20][21]. Conclusion - The domestic computing power sector is poised for growth, with several key players and segments showing promise. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong strategic positions and potential catalysts for growth in the coming months [19].

Core Viewpoint - The global AI server market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.2% from 2022 to 2029, with significant market size projections for 2025 and 2027 [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The shift in performance bottlenecks in the inference era is moving from "computing power" to "transport capacity," necessitating a transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up network architectures to reduce communication latency and enhance throughput [1][2]. - The internal switch chips in AI servers can be categorized into CPU-GPU connections and GPU-GPU interconnections, which are crucial for high bandwidth and low latency communication within GPU clusters [2]. Competitive Landscape - The AI inference market is diversifying with various acceleration chips, moving away from NVIDIA's dominance, as open standards like PCIe6/7 and UALink create opportunities for third-party interconnect vendors [3]. - Astera Lab is emerging as a key player in the non-NVIDIA ecosystem, actively participating in AMD's UALink and AWS's Trainium NeuronLink, positioning itself for growth alongside AI infrastructure expansion [3]. Market Size Projections - The AI server market is projected to reach approximately 49.139 billion yuan by 2025 and expand to about 102.223 billion yuan by 2027, driven by increasing demand for GPU interconnect switches and CPU-GPU interconnect switches [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as 盛科通信-U (688702.SH) and 海光信息 (688041.SH) are highlighted for their advancements in high-spec Ethernet switch chips and Chiplet interconnect technologies, respectively, with 澜起科技 (688008.SH) also recommended for its PCIe and CXL products [5].

Core Insights - The report from GF Securities highlights that the demand for single-node computing density, bandwidth, and low-latency interconnects is rising due to AI training and inference, making the enhancement of single-machine performance a priority for data center investments [1] - The rapid development of Scale up networks is directly driving the demand for Scale up switches, switch chips, interconnect chips, PCBs, and ODMs [1] - The transition from "AI's iPhone moment" to "AI's fission moment" and then to "AI's offensive moment" suggests a focus on core beneficiaries within the industry chain [1] Industry Trends - Scale up has become the core trend for computing power expansion in the AI era, with three main interconnects surrounding GPUs: business network interconnect, Scale out network interconnect, and Scale up network interconnect [1] - Scale up enhances computing density and data access efficiency, with GPU interconnects first focusing on Scale up before Scale out, indicating its importance for future AI scalability [1] Protocol Development - The Scale up protocol is diversifying, with various manufacturers launching self-developed or deeply customized switch chips and interconnect protocols, including PCIe, NVLINK, UALINK, and SUE [2] - There are two main paths for Scale up: high-density single-cabinet GPU solutions and multi-cabinet optical interconnects, with NVIDIA and Google being key representatives in these developments [2] - As GPU interconnects extend beyond single cabinets, optical interconnects are becoming essential for achieving efficient connections, benefiting upstream components like Scale up switches, switch chips, interconnect chips, PCBs, and ODMs [2]