Financial Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, Miniso reported total revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 18.9% year-on-year [1] - Miniso brand revenue grew by 16.5% year-on-year to 4.086 billion yuan, with domestic market revenue increasing by 9.1% to 2.494 billion yuan, while overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [1] - Despite revenue growth, net profit fell sharply by 28.8% to 416.5 million yuan, with adjusted net profit down approximately 4.8% to 587 million yuan, reflecting increased sales and distribution expenses [4] Business Development Insights - The domestic market is undergoing channel upgrades, with a net closure of 111 stores in Q1 2025, resulting in a total of 4,275 stores, a net increase of 241 stores year-on-year [4] - The MINISO LAND flagship store opened in October 2024, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within nine months, with IP series products contributing 79.6% of sales [5] - Miniso's overseas expansion strategy has led to a total of 3,213 overseas stores, an increase of 617 stores year-on-year, with a focus on North America and Europe [6] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross profit increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with gross margin rising by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, driven by a higher proportion of direct-operated stores and improved product competitiveness [2] - However, operating expenses surged by 46.7% year-on-year to 1.021 billion yuan, primarily due to the expansion of direct-operated stores overseas [4] - The company faces challenges in controlling costs, as the shift towards a direct-operated model incurs higher rent and depreciation expenses [10] Growth Opportunities and Challenges - The domestic consumption market is recovering, with interest consumption and IP economy thriving, aligning with Miniso's large store strategy and diverse product offerings [10] - The company is also expanding its TOP TOY brand, which saw a revenue increase of 58.9% to 340 million yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from strategic market positioning and product quality improvements [7] - However, the competitive landscape in retail is intensifying, and the company must address the risks associated with overseas expansion, including tariffs and cultural differences [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [4][10] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the closing price was HKD 42.25, with a year-to-date high of HKD 55.00 and a low of HKD 20.00. The total market capitalization was HKD 52.869 billion [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an average store count increase of 16.5% [6]. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and distribution expenses [6][8]. Business Segments - Domestic revenue for MINISO China in Q1 2025 was 2.494 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, a 30.3% increase year-on-year. The average store count in overseas markets grew by 24.6% [7][10]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and distribution expense ratio rose to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to direct investments in overseas stores [8][10]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [10][12]. The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 13.9, and 11.8, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Insights - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, although adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% [5][7][11] - The company is focusing on optimizing low-efficiency stores while emphasizing the establishment of flagship stores and IP Land stores to enhance brand strength [8] - The overseas market continues to expand rapidly, with a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue growth exceeded market expectations, driven by a 16.5% year-on-year increase in average store count. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year due to rising sales and distribution expenses [7][9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin overseas direct sales and an optimized product mix [9] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to direct investments in overseas stores [9] Future Outlook - For the years 2025 to 2027, the projected revenues are 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [11][13] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic same-store sales and improvement in sales performance, particularly in overseas markets like Mexico and the United States [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][15] Core Insights - MINISO's overseas expansion and IP strategy are accelerating, contributing to revenue growth and improved profitability [3][15] - The company reported slightly below expectations for its 4Q24 and FY24 results, with a revenue of Rmb4.71 billion, a gross margin of 47.0%, and an adjusted net profit of Rmb793 million [7][9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, MINISO achieved a revenue of Rmb16.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of Rmb2.72 billion, up 15.4% [7][9] - The company forecasts revenue growth to Rmb21.13 billion in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of Rmb3.11 billion [8][15] Revenue Growth Drivers - Domestic store expansion and TOP TOY's strong sales contributed to revenue growth, with MINISO's domestic revenue reaching Rmb2.30 billion, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [10] - Overseas store count reached 3,118, with a revenue increase of 65.5% year-on-year in 4Q24, contributing significantly to overall revenue [11][12] Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin reached a record high of 47.0%, driven by an increased proportion of direct-operated stores and improved execution of the IP strategy [12][15] - Adjusted net margin for 4Q24 was 16.8%, reflecting healthy profitability despite increased selling expenses [12] Strategic Partnerships and Future Outlook - MINISO is enhancing its partnership with Yonghui to accelerate retail transformation and is collaborating with IPs to support global brand expansion [13][14] - The company aims to assist 100 Chinese IPs in going global over the next decade, which is expected to drive long-term sales growth [14]