来源：金吾财讯 金吾财讯 | 名创优品(MNSO)盘前涨超1%，截至发稿，报22.37美元。 消息面上，西部证券发研报指，名创优品25H1中国内地收入同比增长11.4%，其中第二季度同店销售额 实现四个季度以来首次正增长，显示运营优化与客流改善初见成效。公司战略重心已从数量扩张转向质 量提升，通过关闭低效小店、优化网络结构，截至25H1，门店总数达4,305 家，净增190 家。以 MINISO LAND和旗舰店为代表的大店业态，凭借沉浸式IP 场景与丰富SKU，显著提升客单价与坪效， 成为增长与品牌升级的核心动力。未来，国内市场将聚焦同店增长与大店拓展，计划净增100-150家门 店。 该机构表示，海外业务与TOP TOY 构成双增长引擎。25H1 海外业务收入同比大增29.4%，截至期末门 店数达3,307 家。北美市场为核心驱动力，门店数增至394 家，GMV 激增67.5%至14.1 亿元，同店销售 在第二季度取得个位数增长，得益于集群化布局与深度本地化运营。未来海外市场将转向精细化运营， 美国重点打磨大店模型，计划全年开店80 家，并依托本土化团队深耕加拿大、澳洲等高增长区域，目 标全年净增海外门店 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for MINISO (09896), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its global expansion and optimization of operations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, MINISO's revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, an increase of 10.6% [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO's domestic store count increased by 30, with a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year growth of 190 stores [2] - The same-store sales in Q2 2025 showed a low single-digit growth, indicating a positive trend in performance, with an estimated average revenue per store of 611,000 yuan, up 7.87% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for MINISO are set at 21.32 billion yuan for 2025, 25.45 billion yuan for 2026, and 30.00 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.59 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.91 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MINISO (09896) maintains a "buy" rating, with projected revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 21.32 billion, 25.45 billion, and 30.00 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.59 billion, 3.40 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in daily goods retail, leveraging its advantages in channels and supply chains to expand rapidly worldwide [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 690 million yuan, up 10.6% [2] - The domestic store count increased by 30 in Q2 2025, reaching a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year increase of 190 stores [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and positive adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, exceeding previous guidance, indicating a potential operational turnaround [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 0.692 billion, up 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.393 billion, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.6%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q2 2025, it was 13.9%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Domestic same-store sales for MINISO turned positive in Q2 2025, with H1 revenue of 5.115 billion, an 11.4% year-on-year increase [2]. - Overseas, MINISO achieved H1 revenue of 3.534 billion, a 29.4% year-on-year increase, with a net addition of 189 stores [2]. - TOP TOY reported H1 revenue of 0.742 billion, a significant 73.0% year-on-year increase [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 44.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin overseas direct sales [3]. - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 1.014 billion, aligning closely with net profit, indicating healthy cash generation [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its store network and expects revenue growth to reach 21.216 billion, 25.799 billion, and 30.633 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 2.606 billion, 3.464 billion, and 4.239 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.0, 12.8, and 10.4 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [5] Core Views - MINISO's same-store sales in China showed significant improvement in Q2 2025, indicating a turning point in operations [6][14] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 0.692 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year [7][9] - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, growing 3.0% year-on-year [9] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO's adjusted net profit margin was 13.9%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the first half of 2025 saw a net profit margin of 13.6%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [9][11] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 44.3%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.014 billion yuan, aligning closely with net profit [13] Business Segmentation - Domestic revenue for MINISO in H1 2025 was 5.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with same-store sales showing low single-digit growth in Q2 2025 [10] - Internationally, MINISO's revenue reached 3.534 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 29.4% increase year-on-year, although same-store sales declined slightly in Q2 2025 [10] - The TOP TOY segment reported H1 2025 revenue of 742 million yuan, a remarkable 73.0% increase year-on-year [10] Future Projections - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 21.216 billion, 25.799 billion, and 30.633 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.606 billion, 3.464 billion, and 4.239 billion yuan [14][16] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 17.0, 12.8, and 10.4 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [14][16]

Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, exceeding previous guidance, with an expected annual GMV of over 38 billion yuan and revenue of over 21 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.67%. After adjustments, the net profit was 691 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 44.28%, a year-on-year increase of 0.33 percentage points, while the adjusted net profit margin was 13.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.56 percentage points [1] Group 2: Domestic and International Expansion - Domestic revenue for MINISO in Q2 2025 was 2.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, with a total of 4,305 stores by the end of the quarter, net adding 30 stores [2] - Overseas revenue for MINISO in Q2 2025 was 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, with 94 new stores added, totaling 3,307 stores [2] - TOP TOY achieved revenue of 402 million yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87%, with a net addition of 13 stores, reaching a total of 293 stores [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - MINISO plans to add over 500 overseas stores in 2025 while focusing on store quality rather than quantity [2] - TOP TOY has signed contracts with 9 toy artists and aims to develop its own IP strategy alongside international IP [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 2.94 billion, 3.39 billion, and 3.86 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by improvements in same-store sales domestically and continued rapid growth overseas [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 661 million yuan, primarily due to ongoing overseas store expansion and increased financial expenses [1] - Domestic revenue for MINISO reached 2.494 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 9.1% year-on-year, with same-store sales showing improvement [2] - Overseas revenue for MINISO was 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, although growth rates slowed due to high base effects [3] - TOP TOY achieved domestic revenue of 340 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.9% [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 20.565 billion yuan, 24.425 billion yuan, and 28.915 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.0%, 18.8%, and 18.4% [5] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is projected to be 2.737 billion yuan, 3.332 billion yuan, and 4.152 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 21.8%, and 24.6% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 14.7x, 12.0x, and 9.7x, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [6] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, with a focus on operational efficiency [1] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in North America, with a significant increase in store count [2] - The gross margin remains stable, but profits are under pressure due to increased operational costs [3] - The company is positioned as a global leader in the retail sector, leveraging its supply chain and light asset model for rapid expansion [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 416 million yuan, a decrease of 28.52% [1] - The number of domestic stores decreased by 111, totaling 4,275 stores, but same-store sales showed a slight decline in the single digits, indicating improved performance [1] Overseas Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO added 95 overseas stores, bringing the total to 3,213, a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, with an average store revenue growth of 4.6% [2] - The overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3] - Operating expenses increased significantly, with sales expenses rising by 71.4% due to investments in direct stores and related costs [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.012 billion yuan, 24.608 billion yuan, and 28.044 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.951 billion yuan, 3.653 billion yuan, and 4.325 billion yuan [4][5] - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory with a focus on optimizing various business segments and supply chains [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][6] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, with a net decrease of 111 stores in Q1 2025, but a year-on-year increase of 241 stores, leading to a revenue of 24.94 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - The overseas market remains a focus, with a total of 3,213 stores as of Q1 2025, an increase of 617 stores year-on-year, and overseas revenue reaching 15.92 billion yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by a higher proportion of overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 210.1 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit projected at 29.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory despite current challenges [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue was 24.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, with same-store sales decline narrowing to low single digits [1] Overseas Expansion - The overseas store count reached 3,213, with a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, and average store revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year [2] Financial Metrics - Q1 2025 adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, down 4.81% year-on-year, with gross margin at 44.2% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 210.1 billion yuan, 246.1 billion yuan, and 280.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 29.5 billion yuan, 36.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.89%, slightly above the company's guidance. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 416 million yuan, down 28.9% year-on-year, primarily due to increased short-term financing costs related to the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [7] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.23%, up 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 13.26%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. This was mainly due to the higher revenue share from overseas direct sales, which typically has lower profit margins during the off-season [7] - Domestic MINISO revenue reached 2.49 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 9.15% year-on-year, with a net reduction of 111 stores to 4,275 stores as the company focused on optimizing store structure and upgrading the brand [7] - Overseas revenue for MINISO was 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, with a net addition of 95 stores, bringing the total to 3,213 stores [7] - The TOP TOY brand achieved revenue of 340 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 58.9% year-on-year, with a net increase of 4 stores to 280 stores [7] - The company expects continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 13.838 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.42%. For 2024A, the forecast is 16.994 billion yuan, representing a 22.80% increase, and for 2025E, it is 20.664 billion yuan, a 21.59% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is forecasted at 2.253 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 111.48%. For 2024A, it is 2.618 billion yuan, a 16.17% increase, and for 2025E, it is 2.544 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% [1] - The Non-IFRS net profit for 2023A is projected at 2.357 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 109.65%. For 2024A, it is 2.721 billion yuan, a 15.44% increase, and for 2025E, it is 2.919 billion yuan, a 7.30% increase [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 1.79 yuan per share, with a forecast of 2.09 yuan for 2024A and 2.04 yuan for 2025E [1] - The P/E ratio for the current price and latest diluted EPS is 18.51 for 2023A, 15.81 for 2024A, and 16.27 for 2025E [1]