Core Insights - MINISO successfully held its first global MINI TALK value story sharing conference in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme of "Faith, Belief, Confidence" [1][3] - The event showcased MINISO's commitment to corporate culture and its strong internal cohesion, reflecting the proactive exploration of Chinese brands in the globalization process [1][3] Group 1: Corporate Vision and Cultural Significance - The CEO of MINISO, Ye Guofu, emphasized the layered logic of "Faith, Belief, Confidence" and their deep impact on driving corporate development, stating these elements are the foundation of MINISO's growth [3] - Ye also aligned MINISO's vision with the national cultural strategy, aiming to become a leading global IP operation platform and promote Chinese IP in the global market [3][5] - The corporate culture is viewed as a shared belief among MINISO employees, which is crucial for uniting global efforts and supporting long-term development [3] Group 2: Leadership Insights and Brand Mission - Executives shared personal stories and insights to clarify the meanings of "Faith, Belief, Confidence," providing motivation for employees [5] - The brand mission has evolved to "Born for Happiness," focusing on the well-being of employees, consumers, and partners, while promoting Chinese IP globally [5][10] - The confidence of MINISO's team is rooted in its business model, globalization strategy, and core competitiveness, with a commitment to creating a warm and engaging global brand [10] Group 3: Globalization and Market Recognition - MINISO's belief in its globalization strategy is reflected in its expansion into over 100 countries, overcoming cultural differences and market barriers [7][8] - The company has received widespread market recognition, demonstrating the strength of its commitment to its direction and the courage to innovate [8] Group 4: Cultural Export and Future Aspirations - The MINI TALK competition attracted nearly 100 participants globally, with 14 finalists sharing authentic stories that embody the values of "Faith, Belief, Confidence" [12][13] - MINISO's mission of "Born for Happiness" continues to guide its product offerings, aiming to transition from "product export" to "cultural export" [19] - The company aspires to invigorate Chinese culture through its IP-centric approach, moving towards its vision of becoming a leading global IP operation platform [19]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll data have significantly reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December, with a likelihood of a pause rather than a cancellation of rate cuts [1][12][14] - The report suggests that the overall economic pressure is increasing, with the ECI supply index at 49.94% and the demand index at 49.87%, indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with a macro timing model scoring -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the entire A-share index [2][10] - The report highlights that small-cap stocks may perform relatively better, while the sentiment in the small-cap sector has been negatively impacted by the suspension of high-profile stocks [2][10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the Chinese economy's main theme for 2025 as responding to changes, with external factors like fluctuating tariffs and internal factors such as asset revaluation and investment growth turning negative [3][4][15] - It emphasizes five key areas for 2026: policy continuity, AI-driven supply changes, consumer subsidy adjustments, asset liability repair, and price stability through anti-involution measures, projecting a GDP growth rate of around 4.9% [4][15] Fixed Income - The report notes that the yield on 10-year government bonds has shown slight upward movement, indicating a cautious market outlook as investors await year-end allocation opportunities [5][16][18] - It highlights that the issuance of green bonds has decreased, with a total issuance of approximately 24.619 billion yuan this week, down from the previous week [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a strong same-store revenue growth of 28% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.8 billion yuan, exceeding the company's guidance of 25-28% [7] - The overseas segment showed significant growth, with overseas revenue increasing by 28.6% year-on-year, and the company plans to slow down the opening of new stores to focus on quality [7] - The TOP TOY division experienced remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 111.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue growth to be in the range of 25-30%, with same-store growth in both China and the U.S. projected to accelerate [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 11,473 million yuan, 2024A: 16,994 million yuan, 2025E: 21,305 million yuan, 2026E: 25,961 million yuan, and 2027E: 30,963 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.76%, 48.12%, 25.37%, 21.85%, and 19.27% respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 2,901 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.61% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.83 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 18.58 based on the latest diluted earnings [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that MINISO's Q3 2025 revenue reached 5.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, exceeding the company's previous guidance of 25%-28% [7] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 767 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, MINISO achieved a total revenue of 15.190 billion, up 23.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.045 billion, a 6.1% increase [7] Market Performance - Domestic same-store sales growth accelerated in Q3 2025, with October showing further improvement to low double digits [7] - The company opened 102 new stores in Q3 2025, bringing the total domestic store count to 4,407 by the end of the quarter [7] - Internationally, MINISO's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.846 billion, a 28.7% increase, with same-store sales turning positive in Q3 [7][8] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 44.4%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 1.230 billion, with a ratio of operating cash flow to adjusted net profit of 1.7, indicating strong profitability [8] - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 13.2%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [8] Future Projections - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 21.216 billion, 25.799 billion, and 30.633 billion respectively, with net profits of 2.400 billion, 3.398 billion, and 4.160 billion [9] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.4, 13.0, and 10.6 respectively, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and maintained double-digit adjusted net profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding previous guidance Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.190 billion, up 23.7% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 767 million, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth [1] - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 13.2%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 44.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 2: Business Segments - Domestic revenue for MINISO in the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.024 billion, a 14.1% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales growth in Q3 showing high single digits [2] - Overseas revenue for MINISO reached 5.846 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.7% year-on-year, with same-store sales turning positive in Q3 [2] - TOP TOY achieved revenue of 1.317 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a significant growth of 87.9% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The company opened 102 new stores in Q3 2025, bringing the total domestic store count to 4,407 by the end of Q3 [2] - The overseas store count reached 3,424 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net increase of 306 stores since the beginning of the year [2] - The company maintained healthy operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.230 billion in Q3 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, reflecting confidence in its growth potential and operational efficiency [4][6]. Core Insights - MINISO has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 28.2% year-on-year increase in revenue to 5.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, alongside an adjusted net profit growth of 11.7% to 767 million RMB [1]. - The company is expanding its store network, adding 102 new stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 4,407, while overseas operations also saw a net increase of 117 stores, totaling 3,424 [2]. - The operational efficiency of overseas direct sales has improved, with a profit margin increase, particularly in strategic markets like North America and Europe [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - In Q3 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue reached 2.91 billion RMB, marking a 19.3% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales showing high single-digit growth [1]. - The company anticipates low double-digit same-store growth in mainland China by October 2025, projecting a full-year same-store growth in the mid-single digits [1]. Overseas Operations - The overseas business generated 2.31 billion RMB in revenue, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, accounting for 44.3% of total revenue [2]. - Same-store sales in overseas markets have shown improvement, particularly in strategic regions, contributing to the overall growth of the company [2]. Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 2.59 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%, slightly down from the previous year [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.3 billion RMB, 25.4 billion RMB, and 29.6 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 2.94 billion RMB, 3.48 billion RMB, and 4.08 billion RMB [4][5]. - The report indicates a continuous optimization of various business segments, products, and supply chains, supporting the company's growth trajectory [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, MINISO's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, reaching 5.797 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was 767 million yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year [4][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, MINISO achieved a revenue of 15.190 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.045 billion yuan, growing 6.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has seen a significant improvement in same-store sales in China, with a high single-digit growth in Q3 2025 and a further acceleration to low double-digit growth in October 2025 [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, MINISO's adjusted net profit margin was 13.2%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall adjusted net profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.5%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [5][9] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 44.4%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 saw a gross margin of 44.7%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][9] - The company reported a healthy operating cash flow of 1.230 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a ratio of operating cash flow to adjusted net profit of 1.7, indicating strong profitability [9] Business Segment Performance - Domestic operations in China generated 8.024 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a 14.1% year-on-year increase, with a net addition of 102 stores in Q3 [6][10] - Internationally, MINISO's overseas revenue reached 5.846 billion yuan, growing 28.7% year-on-year, with same-store sales turning positive in Q3 2025 [6][10] - The TOP TOY segment achieved a remarkable revenue growth of 87.9% year-on-year, reaching 1.317 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 21.216 billion yuan, 25.799 billion yuan, and 30.633 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.400 billion yuan, 3.398 billion yuan, and 4.160 billion yuan [10][12]

Core Insights - MINISO's stock rose over 1% pre-market, reaching $22.37, driven by positive financial performance and strategic shifts [1] Group 1: Domestic Performance - In H1 2025, MINISO's revenue in mainland China increased by 11.4% year-on-year, with same-store sales achieving positive growth for the first time in four quarters, indicating effective operational optimization and improved customer traffic [1] - The company's strategic focus has shifted from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, closing inefficient small stores and optimizing its network structure, resulting in a total of 4,305 stores by the end of H1 2025, with a net increase of 190 stores [1] - Large store formats, represented by MINISO LAND and flagship stores, have significantly boosted average transaction value and sales per square meter, becoming the core drivers of growth and brand upgrade [1] Group 2: International Expansion - MINISO's overseas business saw a substantial revenue increase of 29.4% in H1 2025, with the total number of international stores reaching 3,307 [2] - The North American market is a key growth driver, with store count rising to 394 and GMV surging by 67.5% to 1.41 billion yuan, supported by cluster-based layouts and localized operations [2] - Future plans for the overseas market include refined operations, with a focus on developing large store models in the U.S. and aiming to open 80 new stores throughout the year, while also targeting high-growth regions like Canada and Australia with a goal of adding over 500 international stores [2] - TOP TOY's business continues to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 73% and a total of 293 stores, serving as a strong secondary growth curve for the group [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for MINISO (09896), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its global expansion and optimization of operations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, MINISO's revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, an increase of 10.6% [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO's domestic store count increased by 30, with a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year growth of 190 stores [2] - The same-store sales in Q2 2025 showed a low single-digit growth, indicating a positive trend in performance, with an estimated average revenue per store of 611,000 yuan, up 7.87% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for MINISO are set at 21.32 billion yuan for 2025, 25.45 billion yuan for 2026, and 30.00 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.59 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.91 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MINISO (09896) maintains a "buy" rating, with projected revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 21.32 billion, 25.45 billion, and 30.00 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.59 billion, 3.40 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in daily goods retail, leveraging its advantages in channels and supply chains to expand rapidly worldwide [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 690 million yuan, up 10.6% [2] - The domestic store count increased by 30 in Q2 2025, reaching a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year increase of 190 stores [2]