三菱、三井、瑞穗三个大银行，10月17号一块儿搞了个大动作，决定联合出了个"稳定币"——说白了， 就是区块链上的数字钱，跟日元美元绑在一起，第一批用在大公司结算上，别小看，这背后盘子大着 呢，三家银行加起来客户企业三十多万家，生意量大得吓人。 这玩意儿看着挺新鲜，谁不爱方便快捷，转账秒到账，成本还低——但这其实是美国又一招金融套路， 美元靠着稳定币这套系统，想把钱从全球吸回来，撑起那堆天文数字的国债，生怕没人买了债务崩盘。 你看现在市场上最火的稳定币，大多是法币抵押型，像USDT、USDC，这两家就是收到一美元，存一 美元，或者买短期美债，保证背后金银实实在在的撑着，安全感爆棚。 另一个模式是用加密货币抵押，比如存150美元的以太币，才能换100个稳定币，多出来的部分是留给波 动的缓冲，风险稍大；还有纯算法控制的，没抵押物靠程序调节，之前有个UST崩盘了，吓得一大堆人 跑。 稳定币在加密市场占了八成以上份额，成了硬通货，谁敢说这只是金融科技进步？这是美国在全球金融 体系上拉的网，谁进谁就得给美国买债，钱就这么转来转去，绕回去美国怀抱。 美国几十年头疼的特里芬悖论又活过来了，美元要做全球通用货币，得撒出去，别人 ...

A bankruptcy court in the U.S. has approved a settlement between Terraform Labs and the bankrupt hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) regarding a $1.3 billion claim tied to the 2022 collapse of the Terra/LUNA cryptocurrency. Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a cryptocurrency hedge fund based in Singapore and founded by Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, filed for court-ordered liquidation in June 2022 after suffering billions in losses — much of it linked to the Terra/LUNA crash. The ruling, issued by Judge Brendan L. S ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of stablecoins in the digital finance landscape, highlighting their advantages over traditional cryptocurrencies due to their price stability and regulatory compliance, which makes them increasingly integrated into the mainstream financial system [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Current Status and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are digital assets based on blockchain technology that maintain price stability through a "anchoring mechanism" to fiat currencies. They have evolved from being used primarily in cryptocurrency exchanges to being integral in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities such as lending and staking, as well as in cross-border payments and trade settlements due to their fast settlement speeds and low transaction costs [5][6]. Development History of Stablecoins - The development of stablecoins has transitioned from exploration to regulation. The launch of USDT in 2014 marked the introduction of fiat-collateralized stablecoins, which quickly gained traction. The introduction of DAI in 2017 pioneered decentralized stablecoins. The demand for stablecoins surged during the DeFi boom in 2020, but the collapse of algorithmic stablecoin UST in 2022 raised regulatory concerns. Recent regulations, such as the U.S. GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, have laid a foundation for compliant development [6][7]. Market Characteristics - The stablecoin market is characterized by concentration, with the total market cap exceeding $280 billion as of August 2025, where USDT holds about 60% market share. The majority of stablecoin transactions occur on major public blockchains like Ethereum, Tron, and Solana, with Ethereum alone accounting for over $137 billion in stablecoin market cap [7]. Technical Principles of Stablecoins - The stability and security of stablecoins rely on blockchain and smart contract technologies. They can be categorized into three types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins. Each type has distinct technical implementations, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins like USDT and USDC relying on off-chain reserves, while crypto-collateralized stablecoins like DAI use over-collateralization and automated liquidation mechanisms [10][11]. Trust Logic of Stablecoins - The core competitive advantage of stablecoins lies in trust, which is built on reliable anchoring and reserve mechanisms, verifiable technology, and regulatory frameworks. The trust in fiat-collateralized stablecoins is derived from the transparency and liquidity of their reserves, while crypto-collateralized stablecoins depend on over-collateralization and automated liquidation for stability. Algorithmic stablecoins face structural challenges due to their reliance on supply-demand algorithms without actual asset backing [15][16]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Stablecoins face challenges in regulatory technology, price stability, and governance. The lack of a global regulatory framework for stablecoins and blockchain transactions complicates compliance. Additionally, past incidents of reserve opacity have led to market instability. However, the future of stablecoins looks promising, with potential growth in cross-border payments and tokenization of real-world assets, supported by evolving regulatory environments and technological innovations [17][18][19].

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that the international status of the Renminbi (RMB) determines the strategic space for China's stablecoin, rather than technology alone [1][3] - Blockchain technology is viewed as a tool that cannot create currency credit on its own; stablecoins are a digital extension of sovereign credit [1][2] - The essence of Real World Assets (RWA) is the digital representation of asset credit, not the creation of credit through tokenization [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the evolution of blockchain from a utopian ideal to a pragmatic tool in finance, highlighting its role in reducing trust costs and improving collaboration efficiency [4][5] - It identifies the need for a balanced blockchain architecture that combines centralized efficiency with decentralized trust [6][11] - The future of stablecoins is framed as a digital battleground for sovereign currency dominance, with the U.S. aiming to establish a "digital dollar hegemony" through regulatory frameworks [12][16] Group 3 - Stablecoins are categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each facing unique challenges and market dynamics [12][13][14] - The article notes that the market for stablecoins is projected to grow significantly, driven by speculative trading rather than everyday payment use [15][19] - The potential for RWA to bridge the gap between real-world assets and blockchain technology is emphasized, marking a shift towards the digitization of tangible assets [21][23] Group 4 - The challenges facing RWA include legal ambiguities, cross-jurisdictional conflicts, and high compliance costs, which hinder its widespread adoption [27][28][29] - The article concludes that the integration of stablecoins and RWA is essential for the development of a sustainable Web3 economy, where both elements work together to enhance capital allocation and financial inclusivity [30][31]

Core Insights - The article published by the authoritative media "Learning Times" on September 11, 2025, discusses the technical principles and trust logic of stablecoins, reflecting a potential shift in China's strategic thinking in the digital finance sector [1][4]. Group 1: Definition and Market Role - Stablecoins are defined as digital assets based on blockchain technology, pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar to maintain price stability, combining the efficiency of blockchain with the stability of traditional currencies [4]. - The global market size for stablecoins has surpassed $280 billion, highlighting their extensive applications in transaction settlements, cross-border payments, and asset tokenization [4]. Group 2: Development History and Global Regulatory Trends - The article reviews the evolution of stablecoins from the inception of USDT in 2014, through the DeFi boom in 2020, to the regulatory responses following the collapse of algorithmic stablecoin UST in 2022 [4]. - It notes significant global regulatory developments, including the US GENIUS Act, the EU's MiCA, and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, which lay the groundwork for the compliant development of stablecoins [4]. Group 3: Technical Principles and Trust Building - Stablecoins are categorized into three types: off-chain asset-backed (e.g., USDT, USDC), on-chain asset-backed (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic stablecoins, with their stability relying on blockchain's immutability and smart contract automation [5]. - Trust in stablecoins is derived from the reliability of their anchoring mechanisms, the transparency of the technology, and the improving regulatory frameworks, while also acknowledging the inherent risks of different types of stablecoins [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The article presents an optimistic outlook for stablecoins, predicting market expansion to several trillion dollars with potential integration into supply chain finance and real estate tokenization, possibly becoming a foundational infrastructure in mainstream finance [6]. Group 5: Strategic Signals - The publication of this article signals a strategic shift in China's approach to digital finance, moving from a stance of rejection to one of pragmatic research and strategic planning [9]. - It indicates that Chinese policymakers are closely monitoring global stablecoin regulatory frameworks, potentially preparing for domestic regulatory policies and pilot programs [10]. - The article suggests that the exploration of stablecoins may serve to enhance the internationalization of the digital yuan (e-CNY) and improve its design by learning from successful stablecoin models [10]. - It emphasizes China's intention to assert its position in global digital finance governance, with Hong Kong potentially serving as a testing ground for regulatory experiences [10]. - The article also aims to educate the public and financial institutions about the risks associated with stablecoins, fostering a better understanding of digital finance [10].

Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment, particularly regarding the US dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and emerging markets (EM) currencies. It reflects the views of 42 fund managers with a total of USD 573 billion in assets under management (AUM) [7][9]. Core Insights 1. **Short USD Thesis**: The short USD remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year, despite being challenged by rising global growth concerns [1][3][20]. 2. **Global Growth Concerns**: There is a significant concern regarding a potential global growth slowdown, which could impact the short USD thesis [3][25]. 3. **US Exceptionalism**: The fading of US exceptionalism is a recurring theme, with expectations that both US equities and the USD may decline [1][32][33]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: A strong majority of respondents expect the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair to be more dovish, impacting market expectations [44][46]. 5. **FX Hedge Ratios**: Many investors prefer to increase their FX hedge ratios, indicating a cautious approach towards US assets [49][50]. Additional Insights 1. **Emerging Markets (EM) Sentiment**: EM FX and duration sentiment appears to have peaked, with a slight decline in positioning and views noted in August [15][94]. 2. **European Investment Push**: There is muted conviction regarding a broad-based European investment push, with concerns about EU defense spending and fiscal policies [22][61]. 3. **Tariff Expectations**: Most respondents expect tariffs against China to remain between 30-40% by the end of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [17][34]. 4. **Oil Price Expectations**: Expectations for oil prices are that they will remain range-bound between $60-69 per barrel, with some upside risks anticipated [36][37]. 5. **UK and Eurozone Sentiment**: GBP sentiment has turned neutral with bearish levels, while EUR sentiment remains bullish despite lighter positioning [110][103]. Potential Risks and Opportunities 1. **Fed Independence Risks**: Nearly half of the respondents expect risks to Fed independence to manifest as a steeper US Treasury (UST) curve and a weaker USD [46][39]. 2. **Global Risk Appetite**: The appetite for risk-taking in portfolios remains lower than normal, with average cash levels reported at 3.3% [77][78]. 3. **Duration Exposure**: Global duration exposure has fallen relative to the previous month, indicating a cautious stance among investors [78][80]. Conclusion The survey indicates a complex landscape for FX and rates, with significant concerns about global growth, US fiscal policy, and the evolving dynamics of the Fed. Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with a notable shift towards hedging and cautious positioning in the face of potential risks.

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins provide a stable digital currency option that is pegged to fiat currencies, primarily the US dollar, to facilitate transactions in a volatile cryptocurrency market [2][15]. Group 1: Emergence of Stablecoins - Stablecoins emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are unsuitable for daily transactions [2]. - The core principle of stablecoins is that one stablecoin equals one US dollar, providing a reliable medium of exchange [2]. Group 2: Types of Stablecoin Issuance Mechanisms - There are three main types of stablecoin issuance mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic [3][6]. - Fiat-collateralized stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC, are backed by bank deposits or government bonds, generating interest income for the issuing platform [3][8]. - Crypto-collateralized stablecoins, like DAI, require users to over-collateralize their assets, which can lead to high liquidation risks [5][10]. - Algorithmic stablecoins, such as UST, rely on market mechanisms to maintain their peg but have shown vulnerabilities, as seen in the collapse of UST [6][11]. Group 3: Profit Models of Stablecoins - The profit model for fiat-collateralized stablecoins involves earning interest on the reserve assets, with USDT projected to generate over $10 billion in revenue in 2024 [9][8]. - Crypto-collateralized stablecoins charge users a stability fee for minting, which funds the operational costs of the protocol [10]. - Algorithmic stablecoins previously offered high yields to attract users but ultimately relied on continuous new investments, leading to unsustainable practices [11]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments and Applications - Hong Kong is exploring a government-regulated approach to stablecoins, focusing on real asset backing and rapid redemption capabilities [12][14]. - Institutions like JD.com and Standard Chartered are participating in pilot programs to issue stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar [13]. - Practical applications of stablecoins include cross-border B2B settlements, supply chain payments, and interactions with digital currencies like the digital yuan [15].

Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are designed to maintain a price peg to the US dollar, functioning similarly to a prepaid supermarket card, ensuring a consistent value around $1 regardless of market fluctuations [1][2] - The mechanism behind maintaining the $1 peg involves real asset reserves or algorithmic adjustments, ensuring that each stablecoin is backed by $1 or equivalent assets [2] - Arbitrage opportunities arise when stablecoin prices deviate from the peg, allowing traders to buy low and sell high, thus helping to stabilize the price [3] Group 2: Types of Collateralization - There are three main types of stablecoin collateralization: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic mechanisms (e.g., UST) [4][5] - Fiat-collateralized stablecoins operate by locking in user deposits of dollars, issuing equivalent stablecoins, relying on trust in the issuing company [5] - Crypto-collateralized stablecoins require users to over-collateralize with cryptocurrencies, which can lead to forced liquidation during market downturns [6] - Algorithmic stablecoins attempt to control supply and demand through code without reserves, but have faced significant failures, leading to a loss of market confidence [7] Group 3: Business Model - Stablecoin companies generate revenue by investing user deposits in low-risk assets like US Treasury bonds, earning interest without paying interest to users [9][10] - The business model relies on the concept of using user funds for investment while providing no returns to the users, effectively treating user deposits as loans [11] Group 4: Use Cases - Stablecoins serve practical purposes beyond speculation, such as facilitating fast and low-cost cross-border payments, significantly improving the user experience compared to traditional banking [12][13] - In high-inflation countries, stablecoins act as a hedge against currency devaluation, allowing residents to preserve value [14] - In decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins are essential as a base currency for various financial activities, including lending and insurance [15] Group 5: Global Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. is proposing the "Genius Act," which mandates stablecoin companies to maintain high-quality reserves and prioritize user redemption rights [17] - The European Union's MiCA regulation focuses on comprehensive oversight of stablecoins, prohibiting interest payments and enhancing anti-money laundering measures [18] - In Asia, regions like Hong Kong are exploring stablecoin use in controlled environments to promote efficient cross-border payments and digital clearing [19] Group 6: Hong Kong's Stablecoin Initiatives - Hong Kong is testing multiple stablecoin projects, including HKD and offshore RMB stablecoins, aimed at enhancing cross-border trade settlements and small payments [21][22] - The initiative seeks to reduce traditional payment costs and delays, establishing a transparent and efficient digital payment network in Asia [22]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins, regarded as the "digital dollar" of the crypto world, are currently at the forefront of regulatory reform, particularly following the signing of the Genius Act by President Trump, which establishes clear federal standards for stablecoin issuance and regulation [1][12]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The Genius Act mandates that only entities with federal licenses or those regulated by the Federal Reserve and FDIC can issue "payment stablecoins," requiring issuers to hold high-quality reserve assets such as cash or U.S. Treasury bonds [1][12]. Market Overview - As of July 22, 2025, the total market capitalization of global stablecoins is approximately $268 billion, with Tether (USDT) being the largest at around $161 billion, followed by USDC at about $65 billion [2][3]. Tether (USDT) - USDT is the most liquid stablecoin but has faced transparency issues regarding its reserves, leading to past controversies and fines from regulatory bodies [2]. USDC - USDC is the second-largest stablecoin, known for its transparent asset disclosures and public audits, but it faced a significant price drop during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023 [3][8]. Case Studies - The UST collapse in 2022 exemplified the risks of algorithmic stablecoins, where a failure in the underlying asset led to massive market losses [5][7]. - The USDC crisis in March 2023, triggered by the Silicon Valley Bank's insolvency, resulted in a 12% price drop, highlighting the importance of reliable asset backing and federal guarantees [8][9]. Key Insights - Stablecoins require real, liquid, and low-risk assets for stability, with U.S. dollars or Treasury bonds being the most trusted collateral [9]. - For stablecoins to become mainstream payment tools, they must integrate into traditional financial regulatory frameworks, ensuring compliance and security [9][12]. - The design of stablecoins should include fair redemption mechanisms and liquidity stress testing to prevent panic-induced runs [10][11]. Regulatory Developments - The Genius Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoins Ordinance aim to enhance transparency and risk control in stablecoin issuance, with different focuses on compliance and innovation [12][13]. - Both regulations emphasize the need for stablecoins to be treated as "digital cash" with regulatory oversight, aiming for a balance between safety, transparency, and efficiency [14]. Future Outlook - The U.S. and Hong Kong are likely to engage in a competitive yet complementary relationship regarding stablecoin internationalization, with U.S. stablecoins potentially integrating into global payment systems and Hong Kong serving as a bridge for digital RMB [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry Core Insights - Stablecoins are viewed as a new type of financial infrastructure with the potential to simplify payment processes and enhance the efficiency of financial markets [2][26] - The development of offshore RMB stablecoins is suggested as a priority for China to participate in the stablecoin evolution, while emphasizing that stablecoins are merely a tool for advancing RMB internationalization [1][5] Summary by Sections What are Stablecoins? - Stablecoins are defined as a bridge between the crypto world and the traditional financial system, characterized by a balance of centralization in operation and decentralization in technology [8][9] - They are not considered currency but rather tokens that derive their value from fiat currency reserves [11][12] Recent Attention on Stablecoins - Recent legislative advancements in the US and Hong Kong have heightened interest in stablecoins, alongside significant market events such as Circle's IPO [16][17] - The total market size of stablecoins has surpassed $260 billion, with transaction volumes projected to exceed $15.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing traditional payment platforms like Visa [17][21] Applications and Potential Impact in Financial Markets - Stablecoins enhance payment efficiency, particularly in cross-border transactions, by reducing costs and transaction times compared to traditional systems like SWIFT [40][45] - They also promote financial inclusion, especially in high-inflation economies, by providing a stable asset for savings and transactions [44][46] Impact on the International Monetary System - Stablecoins can increase the penetration of the US dollar while also posing challenges to capital controls in various countries due to their inherent anonymity [4][30] - The rise of stablecoins may lead to increased competition from non-USD stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [4][5] China's Participation in Stablecoin Development - The report suggests that China should focus on developing offshore RMB stablecoins and creating real-world applications to build a robust ecosystem [5][6] - It emphasizes that the success of RMB as a trusted international currency depends on its legal and functional anchors, rather than solely on stablecoin technology [5][6] Mechanisms and Incentives in the Stablecoin Industry - The stablecoin ecosystem operates on a trust mechanism where the backing of fiat reserves is crucial for maintaining stability and transparency [30][31] - Participants in the stablecoin market, including users, issuers, and custodians, have aligned incentives that drive the ecosystem's growth [31][35] The "Impossible Triangle" of Stablecoins - Stablecoins face a trade-off between price stability, decentralization, and capital efficiency, with most successful stablecoins prioritizing price stability [37][39] - The report highlights that current leading stablecoins are primarily centralized, relying on institutional trust to maintain their value [37][39] Conclusion on Stablecoins as Financial Infrastructure - Stablecoins are positioned as a critical component of the next generation of cross-border digital finance, with the potential to reshape traditional financial systems [26][27] - The report concludes that while stablecoins offer significant advantages, they also introduce new risks and challenges that need to be managed [48][49]