格隆汇8月22日｜东方证券研报指出，花园生物上半年实现归母净利润1.62亿元（同比+13.67%），扣非 归母净利润1.50亿元（同比+37.36%），利润端增长更快主要系费用端控制良好。公司业绩与维生素价 格密切相关，考虑到维生素从去年下半年开始迅速涨价，而25H1后半段维生素价格略有回落，认为公 司全年营收端增长较为平稳，但得益于费用控制及业务结构，利润端表现仍然值得期待。"一纵一横"战 略效果显现，看好长期发展。公司是全球唯一的VD3全产业链生产企业，NF级胆固醇（生产VD3唯一 的合法原料）全球市场份额已达70%，在VD3价格回落的情况下成本优势突出（25H1维生素产品毛利率 62.99%，同比+8.12pct），VD3行业新产能投产也能带动公司NF级胆固醇销售。此外，年产6,000吨VA 粉项目已完成建设，年产5,000吨VB6项目和年产200吨生物素项目已处于试生产准备阶段，其他维生素 产品即将贡献业绩增量。药品方面，公司目前拥有7个在审评品种，5个在研品种，集采影响消除后有望 重新进入上升区间。根据可比公司，给予公司2025年30倍市盈率，对应目标价为18.90元，维持"增 持"评级。 ...

Vitamin Sector - The vitamin sector is expected to benefit from price increases in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue projected to grow by 22.5% and net profit by 162.6% year-on-year in 2024 [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are anticipated to continue their upward trend, with increases of 10.8% and 110.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The demand for feed-grade vitamins remains rigid, and certain concentrated supply structures are expected to support price increases for products like Vitamin E, D3, and folic acid [1] Fine Chemicals Sector - The fine chemicals sector is projected to outperform the basic chemicals sector in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a decline of only 4.2% in 2024 compared to a 5.1% drop in basic chemicals [2] - By the end of Q1 2025, the fine chemicals index is expected to rebound to 6905.55 points, reflecting an 8.5% increase year-to-date, surpassing basic chemicals by 2.4 percentage points [2] - The fine chemicals industry benefits from relatively inelastic downstream demand and high production barriers, making it more resilient during downturns and more elastic during recoveries [2] Amino Acids Sector - The amino acids sector is forecasted to see revenue growth of 8.9% and net profit growth of 55.0% in 2024, driven by recovering demand and lower raw material costs [3] - In Q1 2025, the sector is expected to continue benefiting from lower corn prices and increased export demand, with revenue and net profit projected to rise by 9.0% and 74.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Notably, methionine prices are anticipated to rise due to low channel inventory and market expectations, presenting potential opportunities for price increases [3] Pesticides Sector - The pesticides sector is showing signs of a cyclical rebound from 2024 to Q1 2025, despite an overall oversupply in 2024 leading to a revenue decline of 2.3% and a net profit drop of 73% [4] - In Q1 2025, certain pesticide products are expected to experience rapid price increases due to temporary supply-demand imbalances, resulting in a revenue increase of 4.5% and a net profit increase of 57.2% year-on-year [4] - Future price increases may be driven by strong demand for specific crops and supply constraints due to uncontrollable factors [4] Sweeteners Sector - The sweeteners sector is projected to show resilience in revenue with a 2.1% increase in 2024, although net profit is expected to decline by 32.5% due to price drops in core products [5] - In Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to grow by 7.1% and net profit by 81.1%, benefiting from price increases initiated in late 2024 and ongoing demand for functional sugars [5] - The sector may see further price increases for sucralose and potential growth opportunities following the approval of natural sweetener allulose in the domestic market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][20][6] Core Views - The company's first-quarter net profit reached a historical high, with a revenue of 5.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.91% and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up 116.18% year-on-year [1][9] - The profitability is supported by a decrease in expense ratios and a sustained high level of R&D investment, with a gross margin of 46.70% and a net margin of 34.70% in the first quarter [1][9] - The methionine market is experiencing price increases, with the average price in 2024 rising by 14.01% compared to 2023, positively impacting the company's performance [2][11] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a total methionine capacity expected to reach 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest globally [2][16] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 116.18% and a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05% [1][9] - The R&D expense ratio was 4.72%, indicating a commitment to innovation and development [1][9] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.49 billion, 7.09 billion, and 7.62 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.11, 2.31, and 2.48 yuan [4][20] Market Trends - The prices of vitamins A and E are under pressure, while vitamin D3 prices are on the rise, contributing to the overall performance of the company [3][18] - The methionine market is expected to continue benefiting from rising prices and increased production capacity, supporting the company's growth trajectory [2][16]