12月31日刷到条新闻，美联储说未来12个月要搞超过2000亿美元的"准备金管理购买"——简单讲就是通过买短期国库券给市场"补点现金"，因为最近短期利 率涨得太快，货币市场有点"紧"。身边不少朋友问我："这事会不会影响我们手里的股票？"其实我想说，新闻只是个"引子"，真正决定股价涨跌的，从来不 是新闻本身，而是机构大资金有没有在里面"真的动起来"——去年维生素涨价那波，我算彻底看清这点了。 一、美联储的动作，不如看机构的"行动" 去年维生素D3从56元/公斤涨到265元，涨幅360%，按理说相关73只股票都该涨吧？结果23只在跌，近3成没吃到利好，有的涨翻倍有的跌腰斩。差别在哪？ 其实就一个答案：机构大资金有没有"积极交易"。 很多人以为"机构持有股票就会涨"，但其实错了——机构要是拿着股票不动，对股价一点影响都没有；只有他们真金白银地买买卖卖、积极交易的时候，才 会推动股价。就像维生素那波里的两只股票，一个机构早早就"动起来"，一个直到利好出来才短暂参与，结果完全不一样。 二、机构"动得早"，比利好更实在 有只维生素股我印象特深：2024年二季度开始，图里橙色的"机构库存"数据就一直活跃（看图2）——这数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights the peak of domestic silicon production capacity, the exit of overseas manufacturers, and the potential recovery of the polyester chain's prosperity due to concentrated production capacity in the polyester filament sector [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Domestic silicon production capacity has reached its peak, while leading companies are driving industry recovery as overseas manufacturers continue to exit [1][3]. - The PTA production capacity expansion is nearing its end, leading to a concentration in polyester filament production capacity, which is expected to improve the prosperity of the polyester chain [1][3]. - The price of caprolactam has dropped to a low point, prompting the industry to initiate self-driven anti-involution measures [3]. - The raw material price index has rebounded after hitting a bottom, with frequent safety incidents causing significant risks to the global supply chain of key pesticides [3]. - The price of spandex has remained below the cost line, leading to widespread industry losses, but a slowdown in new capacity releases may optimize the supply structure and drive price recovery [3]. - The vitamin market is expected to see significant price increases in 2024 due to a tightening global supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: anti-involution and domestic substitution, particularly in the context of global macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditures [2][4]. - The biobased materials sector is receiving strong support from national policies, with companies accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization [4][6]. - The lubricating oil additive sector is witnessing rapid technological advancements among domestic companies, with several high-end products achieving international certification [4][6]. - The electronic ceramics market is seeing strong demand driven by AI and automotive sectors, with domestic manufacturers making breakthroughs in MLCC production [4][6]. - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquids market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share [4][6]. - The explosive growth of AI servers is driving demand for electronic-grade polyphenylene ether, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering key supply chains [4][6].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

Group 1 - The vitamin sector experienced a decline of 0.39%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with companies like Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Guangji Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit down [1][2] - Notable gainers in the vitamin sector included Haiwang Biological, *ST Zhongji, and Zhenhua Co., which rose by 10.03%, 5.01%, and 4.99% respectively [1][4] - The vitamin sector saw a net outflow of 706 million yuan from major funds, with 43 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 10 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, with a net outflow of 684 million yuan, followed by Xinhua Pharmaceutical and Guangji Pharmaceutical with net outflows of 58.33 million yuan and 50.49 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflow included Haiwang Biological, Zhenhua Co., and Xinhecheng, with net inflows of 145 million yuan, 67.37 million yuan, and 24.76 million yuan respectively [2][4] - The trading volume for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical was notably high, with a turnover rate of 18.78% despite a price drop of 10% [3][4]

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the focus on chemical new materials and fine chemicals as key investment areas in the context of China's dual carbon goals, with a series of top-level designs and policies to accelerate the industry's transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [4][21][49] - The Shenyuan Basic Chemical Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index, rising by 31.7% year-to-date as of November 19, 2023, surpassing the CSI 300 by 15.1 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 Shenyuan industries [4][11] - The report suggests that the demand for modified plastics is expected to grow significantly, with production increasing from 22.5 million tons in 2020 to 33.2 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10% [4][24][30] Group 2 - The vitamin industry is expected to see improvements in supply-demand structure due to restrictions on new production capacities for various vitamins, which will help stabilize prices and enhance market conditions [4][38][50] - China is the largest producer of vitamins globally, with an expected production of 491,000 tons in 2025, accounting for 89% of global output, and the country has implemented restrictions on new capacity for several vitamins [34][38][50] - The report highlights that the demand for vitamins is anticipated to grow, driven by global population growth and increasing life expectancy, which will enhance the need for nutritional products [42][48][50] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as Kingfa Technology, Yinhai Technology, and Guoen Co., which are expected to benefit from the growth in modified plastics [4][49][51] - For the vitamin sector, companies like Wanhua Chemical, New Hope Liuhe, and Tianxin Pharmaceutical are highlighted as key players to watch due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4][49][51] - The report indicates that modified plastics are recognized as a strategic emerging industry in China, supported by various policies aimed at promoting technological innovation and application [4][21][24]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Chemical Industry - The CCPI price index for the chemical industry increased slightly to 3,868 points, up 1% from the previous week, indicating a stabilization in prices [7][8] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and products sector decreased to -7.9% in October, down from -5.6% previously, signaling a slowdown in investment [7][8] - Improvement in liquidity and anti-dumping policies are seen as catalysts for a potential recovery in the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on chemical fiber, nickel-chromium, agricultural chemicals, and lithium battery materials [8] Oil Shipping Industry - Oil shipping rates reached a five-year high of $126,000, driven by OPEC production cuts and increased demand, with supply tightness expected in 2025 [3][4] - The U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets have further tightened compliant shipping capacity [3] - Recommendations include招商轮船 (Zhongshan Shipping) and 海南港股 (Hainan Port Stocks) due to favorable market conditions [4] Express Delivery Industry - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, 极兔速递 (Jitu Express) reported a global average daily package volume of 94.59 million, a 15% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and new markets [5] - The average daily package volume in Brazil exceeded 1 million, confirming the company's expansion potential in new markets [5] - The overall growth rate of express delivery volume slowed to less than 10% due to price increases, particularly in Guangdong where prices rose by approximately 0.5 yuan [6] Lithium Battery Materials - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 50,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market demand [9][10] - The price of additives like vinyl carbonate (VC) increased significantly due to supply disruptions, with VC prices rising from 77,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan [9][10] - Recommendations include 新宙邦 (New Zobon) and关注莲花科技 (Lianhua Technology) for their strong positions in the lithium battery supply chain [10] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has seen a price increase for DMC to 13,000 yuan, driven by a consensus to reduce production by 30% [11] - No new production capacity is expected from 2025 to 2026, while demand is projected to grow by 8-10%, indicating a potential supply-demand improvement by 2026 [11] Vitamin Market - The vitamin market is showing signs of seasonal demand, with prices for vitamin E and A recovering due to low inventory levels [12][13] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies like 新和成 (New Hecheng) and 花园生物 (Garden Bio) for investment opportunities [13] Metal Sector - The metal sector has performed strongly, with expectations for continued interest in aluminum and energy metals [14] - Recommendations include 盛新锂能 (Shengxin Lithium) and 雅化集团 (Yahua Group) as key players in the market [14] Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with port coal prices rising but at a slower rate [15][16] - Anticipated increases in demand due to colder weather could drive prices higher, presenting a good investment opportunity in coal stocks [16] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted various sectors with distinct trends and investment opportunities, particularly in the chemical, oil shipping, express delivery, lithium battery materials, organic silicon, vitamin, metal, and coal industries. Each sector presents unique dynamics influenced by market conditions, regulatory changes, and consumer demand.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]