Key Insights - The report focuses on the sportswear industry, particularly analyzing the product cycles of major brands like Nike, Adidas, and Asics, highlighting the significant performance divergence among these brands post-pandemic [7][11] - The sportswear market is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth trend despite varying brand performances [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of product cycles in driving brand performance, suggesting that investment strategies should focus on identifying key marketing events that signal new product cycles [11] Industry and Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price experienced a significant increase from 2019 to 2021 due to steady performance driven by technological innovation and popular products, but faced a downturn in 2022-2023 due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues [8] - The brand's over-reliance on classic models and slow commercialization of new technologies has raised concerns about its future performance, with a notable decline in Google search interest indicating potential challenges ahead [8][11] - Nike is expected to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches, showing early signs of recovery [8] Adidas - Adidas has successfully navigated challenges post-pandemic, with a strategic shift in product offerings leading to a significant stock price recovery, particularly through the introduction of retro styles and localized strategies [9] - The brand's marketing expenditure is planned to remain at 12%, focusing on optimizing regional advertising efficiency [9] - The successful transition from Yeezy to other product lines has been pivotal in driving growth, with a notable increase in consumer interest preceding stock price recovery [9] Asics - Asics has seen a remarkable stock price increase, driven by strong revenue growth and improved profit margins, with expectations of doubling revenue from 2019 to 2025 [10] - The brand's focus on professional running shoes and the establishment of a running ecosystem have contributed to its profitability, alongside successful product launches that resonate with current trends [10] - Asics has maintained a lower marketing spend compared to its competitors while effectively leveraging sponsorships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor the product cycles of these sportswear brands closely, particularly looking for signs of new product introductions and marketing strategies that could drive future performance [11] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for domestic brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, which are positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer preferences [12] - The analysis highlights the potential of brands like Xtep International and the positive impact of celebrity endorsements on brand visibility and sales [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sports brand industry [6][10]. Core Insights - The sports outdoor industry is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth phase post-pandemic, but with significant brand performance differentiation [1][17]. - Nike, Adidas, and Asics have shown distinct stock price trends since 2019, with Nike experiencing a V-shaped recovery, Adidas an N-shaped reversal, and Asics achieving nearly a tenfold increase [1][25][28]. - The underlying performance of these brands is driven more by their operational results than by valuation fluctuations [1][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The global sports outdoor industry is entering a stable growth phase post-pandemic, with a notable shift in competitive dynamics and brand performance differentiation [17]. - The market share of leading brands like Nike and Adidas has declined, while local brands such as Li Ning and FILA have gained traction [18]. Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price has shown a downward trend due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues, with a significant drop of 50% from its peak in early 2023 to April 2025 [2][47]. - The company is facing challenges with over-reliance on classic models and a decline in consumer interest, as indicated by a drop in Google search index since Q2 2023 [2][47]. - Nike plans to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches [2]. Adidas - Adidas has successfully pivoted its product strategy, focusing on fashion and running categories, leading to a significant stock price recovery [3][27]. - The new CEO has driven a turnaround by optimizing inventory and enhancing brand performance, with a notable increase in marketing efficiency [3][27]. - The brand's focus on localized strategies and retro product lines has contributed to its resurgence [3]. Asics - Asics has experienced a remarkable stock price increase, driven by a strong product cycle and a focus on high-end professional running shoes [4][28]. - The brand has successfully capitalized on the running trend and has built a robust ecosystem around running events [4][28]. - Asics' marketing expenditures are lower than its competitors, yet it has effectively built brand strength through strategic sponsorships and collaborations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to track the product cycles of sports brands, focusing on key marketing events and the subsequent commercial performance [5]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying new product opportunities and adjusting supply strategies as brands transition through different product cycle phases [5]. - Specific recommendations include monitoring Nike's new product cycles and Adidas' ongoing product strategy, while also considering local brands like Anta and Li Ning for their growth potential [9].