Key Takeaways NIKE's Q4 revenues fell 12% as inventory levels stayed flat despite aggressive discounting efforts. NIKE aims for clean inventory by the first half of FY26, but digital traffic dropped 26% in Q4. NKE faces brand pressure from markdowns, with China lagging and a $1B tariff headwind ahead.NIKE Inc.’s (NKE) ongoing efforts to streamline inventory and reset the marketplace remain central to its turnaround strategy. However, concerns linger about whether these moves are coming too late to reverse ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月22日 运动品牌行业专题 优于大市 如何看待产品周期——以耐克、阿迪达斯、亚瑟士为例 行业趋势：疫情后品牌分化的基本面趋势带来截然不同的行情走势。运动户 外行业 2024 年规模约 4000 亿美元，同比增长 3.8%，行业稳健增长背后品牌 表现显著分化，股价走势差距更为悬殊。观察代表性的国际品牌耐克、阿迪 达斯和亚瑟士股价，以 2019 年初价格为基准，耐克走势呈倒 V 型，前半程 翻倍上涨而后半程全部回吐；阿迪达斯 N 型反转，前期大涨近 80%而后大幅 下跌至-45%水位，再反转至累计上涨 20%；亚瑟士持续新高，累计大涨近 11 倍。剖析三家公司股价成因，估值仅阶段性推波助澜，业绩则是底层驱动力。 耐克：不进则退，产品战略错失良机，心智下滑早于业绩拐点。2019-2021 年耐克股价大幅上涨阶段，业绩稳健增长来自科技引领和大众产品驱动； 2022-2023 年股价下跌后短暂反弹，因供应链紊乱及库存问题初步解决，但 产品端过度依赖经典款（DUNK/AF1）、ZoomX 科技商业化进度不理想埋下隐 忧；2024-2025 年业绩大幅走弱，股价持续大跌后近日企稳，体现在专业 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIKE Inc. (NKE) stock has experienced a significant recovery, rising 19.3% in the past month, outperforming key industry benchmarks and competitors [1][2][7] Group 1: Stock Performance - NKE shares have outpaced the broader Shoes and Retail Apparel industry growth of 15.3% and the Consumer Discretionary sector's growth of 3.9% [1] - Compared to competitors, NKE's performance is notably stronger, with lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) gaining 1.8% and adidas (ADDYY) gaining 3.9% in the same period [2] - The current share price of $72.47 is 38.6% above its 52-week low of $52.28 and 20% below its 52-week high of $90.62, indicating bullish sentiment as it trades above its 50 and 200-day moving averages [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The stock's momentum is attributed to NIKE's "Win Now" initiative, which focuses on revitalizing the brand's core strengths in sport and innovation [8] - NIKE has reorganized into dedicated teams by sport and launched impactful campaigns, leading to positive responses from wholesale partners and a gradual recovery of its premium positioning [9][10] - Operational improvements include managing down inventory and expanding through partnerships, signaling a path toward sustainable recovery [10] Group 3: Earnings Estimates and Challenges - Despite the stock's positive performance, earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have declined by 11.6% and 3%, respectively, indicating underlying challenges [11] - For fiscal 2026, the consensus estimates imply a 1.6% revenue decline and a 22.7% decline in EPS, while fiscal 2027 estimates indicate 6.1% revenue growth and 55% EPS growth [12] - The fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results showed a 12% revenue decline and a 26% drop in NIKE Digital, with gross margin falling by 440 basis points due to various pressures [15] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - NIKE's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 40.36X is significantly higher than the industry average of 29.34X and the S&P 500's average of 22.71X, raising concerns about valuation justification [18][19] - Compared to competitors like lululemon and adidas, which have lower P/E ratios, NIKE's elevated valuation may appear out of step with its growth trajectory [19][20] Group 5: Investment Outlook - NIKE remains a fundamentally strong player with a clear strategic roadmap, and recent stock rallies reflect growing investor optimism around its initiatives [21] - However, near-term challenges such as legacy inventory issues and tariff-related cost pressures cloud the outlook, leading to cautious guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [22] - Until NIKE demonstrates consistent top-line growth and margin stabilization, its premium valuation may struggle to attract broader investor interest [23]

Core Insights - The athletic apparel industry is characterized by competition between NIKE Inc. and lululemon athletica inc., with NIKE being a global leader and lululemon focusing on premium, direct-to-consumer offerings [1][2] NIKE Overview - NIKE holds a significant share in the consumer discretionary sector with a diverse portfolio including NIKE, Jordan, and Converse, appealing to various demographics [3] - The "Win Now" strategy launched in fiscal 2025 aims to enhance growth through sport-led innovation and product mix optimization, with key franchises being adjusted for better performance [4][5] - Despite a 10% year-over-year revenue decline in fiscal 2025, NIKE's holiday order book is improving, and the company is expected to benefit from a streamlined digital strategy and a strong product pipeline [6][7] lululemon Overview - lululemon is experiencing growth in the premium activewear segment, with fiscal 2025 first-quarter revenues increasing by 7% year-over-year to $2.4 billion and a gross margin expansion of 60 basis points to 58.3% [8][9] - The company operates 770 stores globally, with 41% of sales coming from digital channels, and is focusing on innovation and global expansion through new product launches [10][11] - lululemon's "Power of Three X2" strategy aims to grow product categories, expand internationally, and double digital revenues while maintaining premium pricing [12] Financial Performance - NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS estimates indicate year-over-year declines of 1.5% and 21.8%, respectively, reflecting recent challenges [14] - lululemon's fiscal 2025 sales are projected to grow by 5.7%, while EPS is expected to decline by 1% [15] - Year-to-date, NIKE shares have increased by 1.2%, while lululemon's stock has decreased by 37.9% [18] Valuation Insights - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 42.85X, above its five-year median of 30.77X, while lululemon's forward P/E is at 15.83X, below its median of 30.78X [19][22] - lululemon's valuation appears attractive, supported by its growth strategy, while NIKE's higher valuation reflects its repositioning efforts for sustainable growth [22] Conclusion - NIKE is showing signs of recovery with improving wholesale momentum and a focus on performance products, despite downward revisions in earnings estimates [23] - lululemon, while facing near-term challenges, maintains a strong long-term strategy centered on innovation and international expansion [24] - Both companies represent significant players in the activewear market, with NIKE offering stability and lululemon presenting growth potential at a more favorable valuation [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Nike's management expects a narrowing of revenue decline to a mid-single-digit percentage in Q1 of FY2026, following an 11% year-over-year decline in Q4 of FY2025 [1] - Nike's revenue for Q4 FY2025 decreased by 11% year-over-year, exceeding FactSet's expectation by 3.4%, with regional revenue declines in North America, EMEA, Greater China, and Asia-Pacific-Latin America [1][2] - Inventory levels remained high, with a year-over-year change of 0% in Q4 FY2025, and Nike plans to continue reducing inventory over the next two quarters [1] Group 2 - Management anticipates a year-over-year revenue decline of mid-single digits for Q1 FY2026, with gross margin expected to decrease by 350-425 basis points, including a 100 basis point negative impact from tariffs [2] - The increase in wholesale holiday orders is offset by declines in the Greater China region, with apparel and footwear categories showing year-over-year declines of 9% and 12%, respectively [2] - Macquarie believes that approximately $1 billion in incremental tariff costs will be alleviated through optimizing sourcing and production distribution, reducing the import share from China, and phased price increases starting in Fall 2025 [2] Group 3 - In the Greater China region, Nike's direct business revenue declined by 15% year-over-year, with digital and store sales down 31% and 6%, respectively [3] - The decline in wholesale revenue by 24% year-over-year is expected to relieve pressure on retailers like Tmall [3] - Efforts to revitalize the Chinese market will take time, with deeper resets leading to increased discounts and reduced supply, as evidenced by an 11% year-over-year decline in inventory [3] Group 4 - The report maintains an underperform rating for Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings and Kwan Hung Holdings, despite ongoing revenue challenges for Nike in China [4] - Tmall is rated outperform with a target price of HKD 3.70, as competition from domestic and emerging international brands may lead to more discounts [4] - Yue Yuen is rated underperform with a target price of HKD 9.60, facing slow recovery in brand client orders and adverse impacts from raw material costs and foreign exchange [4]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Anta Sports is likely to gain market share as Nike continues to adjust in China, with expectations of a narrowing revenue decline for Nike in the upcoming fiscal quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's revenue for Q4 FY2025 decreased by 11% year-over-year, exceeding FactSet's expectation of a 3.4% decline, with regional revenues in North America, Europe-Middle East-Africa, Greater China, and Asia-Pacific-Latin America showing declines of -11%, -10%, -20%, and -3% respectively [1][2]. - Management anticipates a moderate single-digit decline in revenue for Q1 FY2026, with gross margins expected to decrease by 350-425 basis points, including a 100 basis point negative impact from tariffs [2][3]. - Inventory levels remained high, with a year-over-year change of 0% in Q4 FY2025, while Nike plans to continue reducing inventory over the next two quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Anta Sports is expected to benefit from Nike's market adjustments, potentially gaining market share as Nike's direct business in Greater China saw a 15% year-over-year revenue decline [1][3]. - The wholesale revenue for Nike in Greater China decreased by 24%, which may alleviate pressure on retailers like Topsports [3]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as international brands increase efforts to regain market share, leading to more frequent promotional activities due to slower-than-expected inventory clearance [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Cost Management - Nike is implementing strategies to mitigate approximately $1 billion in incremental tariff costs by optimizing procurement and production distribution, aiming to reduce imports from China to the U.S. from 16% to a high single-digit percentage by the end of FY2026 [2][3]. - Collaboration with suppliers and retail partners is planned to minimize the impact of rising costs on consumers, with price increases phased in starting from Fall 2025 [2][3]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Anta Sports (2020 HK) is rated as outperform with a target price of 132 HKD, while companies like Feng Tay (9910 TT) and Stella (1836 HK) are rated underperform [5][6]. - The report highlights that despite ongoing revenue challenges for Nike in China, improved inventory management is expected to benefit Topsports (6110 HK) [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock experienced a significant rally of nearly 15% following its fourth-quarter earnings report, despite reporting a 12% drop in revenue and an 86% decline in profits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential recovery story [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nike reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, surpassing analyst expectations, which signals management's control over the business [3]. - The company's inventories remained flat year-over-year at $7.5 billion, a positive sign as it indicates effective inventory management and the ability to sell products at full price [4][5]. Strategic Developments - Nike introduced a new strategy called "sport offense," aimed at revitalizing its market position and focusing on innovative product launches [6][9]. - The company is intentionally reducing marketing for older sneaker lines, leading to a 26% drop in direct-to-consumer digital sales, which is viewed as a necessary short-term sacrifice for long-term gains [7][8]. Market Outlook - Analysts have upgraded their outlook on Nike, reflecting a growing belief in the company's recovery potential, with an average price target of $77.19 and some as high as $115.00 [9][10][11]. - The market is now focusing on Nike's comeback plan, moving past its historical struggles, which is seen as a vote of confidence in the company's future [10][11].

Nike (NKE -1.36%) stock jumped 16% on Friday following its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report the night before. That move would be the biggest one-day percentage gain for the stock in several years.Nike has been in a downward spiral since its peak in 2021 as a strategic shift toward the direct-to-consumer channel under former CEO John Donahoe flopped. However, after offering guidance for the first quarter of the new fiscal year that topped expectations, management seemed to give investors a ray of hope f ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月28日 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十一 耐克管理层指引最差时间已过，2026 财年有望逐季改善 行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025年6月27日，耐克披露截至2025年5月31日的2025财年及第四季度业绩：2025财年公司实现 收入463亿美元，同比-10%，不变汇率口径-9%；第四季度实现收入111亿美元，同比-12%，不变汇率-11%。 国信纺服观点：1）业绩和指引核心观点：FY2025Q4 收入超出彭博一致预期和管理层指引，最差时期已过， Win Now 战略及关税负面影响在 FY2026 有望逐季缓解；2）FY2025 业绩：收入和利润小幅超出彭博一致预 期，大中华区需求疲软形成拖累，部分地区库存去化效果显著，库存将于 FY26H1 末达到健康水平；3） ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock surged 17% after the company indicated that it has overcome the worst of its struggles, following a better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Nike experienced a 12% drop in sales and an 86% decline in net income, with profit margins also decreasing [2] - The company reported that sales of classic products like Air Force 1, Air Jordan 1, and Dunks fell over 20% year-over-year, with a 30% decline in the fourth quarter alone, impacting sales by nearly $1 billion [9] Turnaround Strategy - CEO Elliott Hill emphasized that the company is beginning to see the effects of its turnaround plan, "Win Now," and expects business results to improve moving forward [3][4] - Nike is focusing on new product launches and efforts to regain wholesale partners, including selling on Amazon for the first time since 2019 and targeting female shoppers [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, several banks issued positive commentary, with HSBC upgrading Nike to a "buy" rating and raising its price target to $80, indicating a potential 28% upside [5] - Analyst Erwan Rambourg noted that there is tangible evidence of a potential sales rebound for Nike, despite challenges such as tariffs [6] Future Outlook - Nike anticipates a mid-single-digit percentage decline in sales for the current quarter, aligning with Wall Street's expectations of a 7% drop [7] - The company expects profits to remain under pressure through the first half of fiscal 2026 due to inventory clearance and higher tariff costs, with improvements anticipated in the second half [10]