你还记得上次买耐克是什么时候吗？ 最近，耐克把大中华区的话事人给换掉了。 换人的直接原因，是耐克中国的营收崩盘了。 刚过去的一个季度，大中华区营收下降17%，利润同比大跌49%，业绩发布后，直接给耐克市值干没了 100亿美元。 如果我是耐克CEO，生意做成这副德行，我也不能忍。 这期内容，我们来聊一下耐克在中国是不是真的不行了？ 01 更可怕的是，如今耐克在社交媒体上已经没有声量了。过去两年，没有爆款，没有事件，没有热度，什 么都没有，当然也没有销量，安静得可怕。 偏偏，纵观整个中国运动行业，却是热闹非凡。 昂跑火了，骆驼爆了，lulu稳了，HOKA巴塔凯乐石都破圈了。 安踏更别提了，带着一堆小弟，在中国市场已经反超耐克了。 最不能忍的，是萎靡了好多年的老对手阿迪，都老树开新花了，在时尚赛道杀疯了。 有人喝汤，有人吃肉，只有耐克在挨揍。 热闹是别人的，钩子什么都没有。 那为什么耐克这几年不行了？ 因为过去20多年，它太行了，整个中国运动市场都给它行完了。 有耐克在，放眼中国，其他运动品牌只能争第二。 朴素的常识告诉我们，如果大版本切换了，上个版本让你封神的机制，可能就会在新版本把你推进下水 道。 而上个版本， ...

Core Insights - Nike's performance in the Greater China region has significantly declined, with revenue dropping to $1.423 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and EBITDA plummeting by 49% [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - The latest financial report indicates a substantial underperformance in the Greater China market, with revenue at $1.423 billion and a 17% year-on-year decline [1] - The EBITDA for the region has nearly halved, reflecting a 49% drop in profitability [1][2] Group 2: Market Reaction - The disappointing financial results led to a strong market reaction, with Nike's stock price falling by 10.54% in a single day, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $10 billion [2] - As of December 26, the stock price remained low at $60.93 per share [2] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Nike's direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, initially seen as a model, has not been effective in China, leading to increased inventory and price volatility [2][5] - The brand's premium positioning is being challenged by local brands and international brands operating with localized strategies, further squeezing Nike's market space [2][6] Group 4: Operational Issues - The shift towards DTC has resulted in a disconnect with actual market demand, leading to an imbalance in the brand's overall operational mechanism [6][10] - Nike's reliance on discounting through e-commerce and outlet channels has disrupted the market pricing structure and diminished its high-end brand image [6][9] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market has seen a rise in specialized brands in various segments, such as outdoor and yoga, which are capturing market share from Nike [10][11] - Local brands like Anta and Li Ning are gaining ground due to their localized strategies and competitive pricing, further pressuring Nike's core business [10][11] Group 6: Product Strategy - Nike's product strategy has become overly reliant on classic styles and colorways, leading to a dilution of brand exclusivity [11] - In contrast, local brands are expanding into more specialized categories and achieving significant revenue growth, surpassing Nike in the Chinese market [11][13] Group 7: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Nike remains committed to the Chinese market, recognizing its long-term potential and planning to optimize operations to better connect with consumers [9][10] - The company needs to prioritize strategic focus areas and enhance localization to rebuild connections with Chinese consumers [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sports brand industry [6][10]. Core Insights - The sports outdoor industry is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth phase post-pandemic, but with significant brand performance differentiation [1][17]. - Nike, Adidas, and Asics have shown distinct stock price trends since 2019, with Nike experiencing a V-shaped recovery, Adidas an N-shaped reversal, and Asics achieving nearly a tenfold increase [1][25][28]. - The underlying performance of these brands is driven more by their operational results than by valuation fluctuations [1][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The global sports outdoor industry is entering a stable growth phase post-pandemic, with a notable shift in competitive dynamics and brand performance differentiation [17]. - The market share of leading brands like Nike and Adidas has declined, while local brands such as Li Ning and FILA have gained traction [18]. Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price has shown a downward trend due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues, with a significant drop of 50% from its peak in early 2023 to April 2025 [2][47]. - The company is facing challenges with over-reliance on classic models and a decline in consumer interest, as indicated by a drop in Google search index since Q2 2023 [2][47]. - Nike plans to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches [2]. Adidas - Adidas has successfully pivoted its product strategy, focusing on fashion and running categories, leading to a significant stock price recovery [3][27]. - The new CEO has driven a turnaround by optimizing inventory and enhancing brand performance, with a notable increase in marketing efficiency [3][27]. - The brand's focus on localized strategies and retro product lines has contributed to its resurgence [3]. Asics - Asics has experienced a remarkable stock price increase, driven by a strong product cycle and a focus on high-end professional running shoes [4][28]. - The brand has successfully capitalized on the running trend and has built a robust ecosystem around running events [4][28]. - Asics' marketing expenditures are lower than its competitors, yet it has effectively built brand strength through strategic sponsorships and collaborations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to track the product cycles of sports brands, focusing on key marketing events and the subsequent commercial performance [5]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying new product opportunities and adjusting supply strategies as brands transition through different product cycle phases [5]. - Specific recommendations include monitoring Nike's new product cycles and Adidas' ongoing product strategy, while also considering local brands like Anta and Li Ning for their growth potential [9].