你还记得上次买耐克是什么时候吗？ 最近，耐克把大中华区的话事人给换掉了。 换人的直接原因，是耐克中国的营收崩盘了。 刚过去的一个季度，大中华区营收下降17%，利润同比大跌49%，业绩发布后，直接给耐克市值干没了 100亿美元。 如果我是耐克CEO，生意做成这副德行，我也不能忍。 这期内容，我们来聊一下耐克在中国是不是真的不行了？ 01 更可怕的是，如今耐克在社交媒体上已经没有声量了。过去两年，没有爆款，没有事件，没有热度，什 么都没有，当然也没有销量，安静得可怕。 偏偏，纵观整个中国运动行业，却是热闹非凡。 昂跑火了，骆驼爆了，lulu稳了，HOKA巴塔凯乐石都破圈了。 安踏更别提了，带着一堆小弟，在中国市场已经反超耐克了。 最不能忍的，是萎靡了好多年的老对手阿迪，都老树开新花了，在时尚赛道杀疯了。 有人喝汤，有人吃肉，只有耐克在挨揍。 热闹是别人的，钩子什么都没有。 那为什么耐克这几年不行了？ 因为过去20多年，它太行了，整个中国运动市场都给它行完了。 有耐克在，放眼中国，其他运动品牌只能争第二。 朴素的常识告诉我们，如果大版本切换了，上个版本让你封神的机制，可能就会在新版本把你推进下水 道。 而上个版本， ...

2015年，刚刚离开万科的毛大庆，在创业前夕翻译了一本书。中文书名"鞋狗"，指全身心投入鞋子制造、销售或设计的人，象征对热爱事业的执着追求。 书中主人公是耐克创始人菲尔·奈特，讲述他从借款50美元起步，通过代理日本跑鞋逐步创立耐克公司的经历。书中强调"前进，不要停下来"的行动准 则，还原了他创业过程中的团队协作、商业决策和危机突破。 彼时，凭借AIR FOREC、AIR JORDAN、DUNK、毁灭者、限量联名，在上一届年轻人心中，耐克一步步成为象征着身份与潮流的标志。高光时，一双 AIR JORDAN球鞋需要在线上抢购，甚至成为球鞋二级市场的"宠儿"。 如今，在新一代中国消费者心中，耐克的光环正在逐渐褪去。 最新一季财报显示，其大中华区业绩显著"失速"，营收仅14.23亿美元，同比大幅下滑17%，远未达到市场预期。更值得警惕的是，该区域息税前利润同比 暴跌49%，盈利能力近乎腰斩。 这份不及预期的成绩单，已引发资本市场的强烈反应。2025年12月19日，耐克股价开盘后持续下探，最终收于58.71美元/股，单日跌幅达10.54%，创下年 内单日最大跌幅，市值一日内蒸发超100亿美元。截至12月26日收盘，耐克 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sports brand industry [6][10]. Core Insights - The sports outdoor industry is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth phase post-pandemic, but with significant brand performance differentiation [1][17]. - Nike, Adidas, and Asics have shown distinct stock price trends since 2019, with Nike experiencing a V-shaped recovery, Adidas an N-shaped reversal, and Asics achieving nearly a tenfold increase [1][25][28]. - The underlying performance of these brands is driven more by their operational results than by valuation fluctuations [1][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The global sports outdoor industry is entering a stable growth phase post-pandemic, with a notable shift in competitive dynamics and brand performance differentiation [17]. - The market share of leading brands like Nike and Adidas has declined, while local brands such as Li Ning and FILA have gained traction [18]. Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price has shown a downward trend due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues, with a significant drop of 50% from its peak in early 2023 to April 2025 [2][47]. - The company is facing challenges with over-reliance on classic models and a decline in consumer interest, as indicated by a drop in Google search index since Q2 2023 [2][47]. - Nike plans to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches [2]. Adidas - Adidas has successfully pivoted its product strategy, focusing on fashion and running categories, leading to a significant stock price recovery [3][27]. - The new CEO has driven a turnaround by optimizing inventory and enhancing brand performance, with a notable increase in marketing efficiency [3][27]. - The brand's focus on localized strategies and retro product lines has contributed to its resurgence [3]. Asics - Asics has experienced a remarkable stock price increase, driven by a strong product cycle and a focus on high-end professional running shoes [4][28]. - The brand has successfully capitalized on the running trend and has built a robust ecosystem around running events [4][28]. - Asics' marketing expenditures are lower than its competitors, yet it has effectively built brand strength through strategic sponsorships and collaborations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to track the product cycles of sports brands, focusing on key marketing events and the subsequent commercial performance [5]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying new product opportunities and adjusting supply strategies as brands transition through different product cycle phases [5]. - Specific recommendations include monitoring Nike's new product cycles and Adidas' ongoing product strategy, while also considering local brands like Anta and Li Ning for their growth potential [9].