Core Insights - Apple has faced challenges in the Chinese market due to competition from Huawei and Xiaomi, with iPhone sales declining by 2.3% year-over-year in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [1] - Recent data indicates a recovery for Apple, with over 8% year-over-year growth in iPhone sales from April 1 to June 22, attributed to strong promotions for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max [2] - The U.S. tariffs on China are expected to negatively impact Apple's supply chain, with an estimated cost of $900 million in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [3] Sales and Market Performance - Apple has recorded its first growth in China since Q2 of 2023, driven by effective marketing strategies for the iPhone 16 series [2][9] - Huawei continues to lead the market with over 12% year-over-year growth [2] - Apple's Services revenue grew by 11.6% year-over-year in fiscal Q2, supported by a growing subscriber base across its services [7][9] Product and Feature Developments - Apple Intelligence features are being expanded, with new language support and functionalities aimed at enhancing user experience and driving sales [4][5] - New features in Apple Music and Apple Wallet are expected to further boost Services revenue [6] Financial Metrics and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings remains steady at $7.11 per share, indicating a 5.33% growth from fiscal 2024 [8] - Apple shares have declined by 9.9% year-to-date, underperforming compared to peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet [10] - Apple's current valuation shows a forward Price/Sales ratio of 7.51X, higher than the sector average of 6.57X [13] Conclusion - Despite the growth in Services, the performance of Apple Intelligence poses challenges for the product business, particularly in the competitive Chinese market [19]

国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 | 2025 年 7 月 9 | 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资讯日报 | | | | | 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | | | | | | | 升跌（%） | | | 指数名称 | 收市价 | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,148 | 1.09 | 20.38 | | 恒生国企 | 8,709 | 1.16 | 19.46 | | 恒生科技 | 5,326 | 1.84 | 19.20 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,241 | (0.37) | 3.99 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国标普 500 | 6,226 | (0.07) | 5.85 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,418 | 0.03 | 5.74 | | 德国 DAX | 24,207 | 0.55 | 21.59 | | 法国 CAC | 7,767 | 0.56 | 5.23 | | 英国富时 100 | 8,854 | 0.54 | 8.33 | | 日本日经 225 | 39 ...

博彩股延续涨势，金界控股涨超14%，汇彩控股涨超8%，永利澳门涨超6%，澳博控股、新濠国际发 展、美高梅中国、金沙中国跟涨。 7月8日，港股三大指数午后持续冲高，恒生科技指数收涨1.84%领先，恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨 1.09%及1.16%，恒指涨260点重回24000点上方。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03918 | 金界控股 | 4.250 | +0.530 | 14.25% | | 01180 | 汇彩控股 | 0.930 | +0.070 | 8.14% | | 01128 | 永利澳门 | 6.320 | +0.380 | 6.40% | | 00880 | 澳博控股 | 2.910 | +0.130 | 4.68% | | 00200 | 新濠国际发展 | 5.200 | +0.230 | 4.63% | | 01680 | 澳门励骏 | 0.079 | +0.003 | 3.95% | | 02282 | 美高梅中国 | 15.080 | +0.480 | 3.29% | | 01928 ...

截至2025年7月7日 10:00，中证消费电子主题指数(931494)成分股方面涨跌互现，鹏鼎控股(002938)领涨3.33%，闻泰科技(600745)上涨0.88%，格科微 (688728)上涨0.58%；东山精密(002384)领跌。消费电子ETF(561600)最新报价0.8元，拉长时间看，截至7月4日，消费电子ETF近1年净值上涨23.28%。 流动性方面，消费电子ETF盘中换手1.14%，成交185.15万元。拉长时间看，截至7月4日，消费电子ETF近1年日均成交1514.55万元，排名可比基金前2。 消息面上，行业媒体报道，市场调查机构CounterPointResearch近日发布博文，报告称在2025年第2季度中国智能手机市场批发销量上，华为和苹果领跑市场 增长。细分到品牌方式，华为同比增长12%，并且在618促销期间的销量增长非常明显。而苹果方面，得益于iPhone16Pro和iPhone16ProMax机型的促销，在 今年5月开始的活动中极大地提振了销量，相比较去年同期增长8%。 上海证券分析指出，部分消费电子相关标的具备性价比：4月份由于宏观因素对股价的冲击，消费电子中以"苹果产业链 ...

Group 1 - According to Counterpoint Research, China's smartphone sales are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, with Huawei projected to grow by 12% and Apple by 8% [1] - The Guangdong provincial government has issued a plan to promote economic growth, which includes accelerating the replacement of old electronics, including smartphones [1] - The "618" shopping festival, supported by national subsidies, has significantly boosted sales of smartphones and other consumer electronics, with Su Ning reporting sales increases of 62.35% for smartphones [2] Group 2 - Huawei and Xiaomi were the biggest beneficiaries of the national subsidy policy, with their shipment volumes increasing by 18% and 40% respectively in Q1 [2] - The overall smartphone market in China is expected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025, with a projected shipment volume of about 290 million units [2] - China Galaxy Securities forecasts that the penetration rate of AI smartphones will reach 34% by 2025, while AI PCs are expected to rise from 0.5% in 2024 to 79.7% by 2028 [3] Group 3 - AAC Technologies (瑞声科技) anticipates a significant increase in the shipment of its WLG products, which will be widely used in smartphones and other sectors [4] - Sunny Optical Technology (舜宇光学科技) expects a 26% year-on-year increase in global demand for automotive lenses, driven by the development of smart driving in China [4] - Q Technology (丘钛科技) reported a decrease in camera module sales but a 45% year-on-year increase in fingerprint recognition module sales [5] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group achieved over 30% year-on-year growth during the "618" shopping festival, with total payments reaching 35.5 billion RMB [5] - Xiaomi's online store revenue grew by 18%, while smartphone shipments increased by 17% during the same period [5] - The company's offline store revenue surged by 51%, with smartphone shipments growing by 31% and AIoT revenue increasing by 63% [5]

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外聊天助手应用活跃度普遍上升，ChatGPT、Gemini 和 Perplexity 均小幅提升。国内应用中，多数保持 稳定，豆包环比保持增长。 - CoreWeave 率先部署 Nvidia 最新 Blackwell Ultra 芯片，采用 Dell 组装的液冷 GB300 NVL72 系统，显著提升 AI 训练与推理效率。受益于与 Nvidia 的深度合作及先发优势，CoreWeave 股价上涨 6%，自 IPO 以来已翻四倍，彰 显资本市场对其成长性的高度认可。 - AI 手机渗透率提升推动单机存储容量升级，2025 年 NAND 均值将达 224GB，DRAM 超 8GB。高容量 UFS4.0 供应充 足，低容量 UFS2.2 因制程调整出现结构性偏紧，价格上涨。DRAM 方面，LPDDR4X 因产线切换供给紧缺，三季度 合约价涨超 20%；LPDDR5X 供需相对平衡，价格小幅上涨。整体市场由结构性升级驱动，出货量增长乏力。 - 2025 年 5 月，中国智能手机销量达到约 ...

从国内外品牌占比来看，国内品牌手机出货占比超八成。据中国信通院披露，2025年5月，国产品牌手 机出货量为1917.7万部，同比下降24.2%，占同期手机出货量的80.9%；国产品牌上市新机型36款，同比 下降25.0%，占同期手机上市新机型数量的92.3%。 7月4日，国内市场手机出货量最新"成绩单"出炉。 中国信通院最新研究显示，2025年5月，国内市场手机出货量为2371.6万部，同比下降21.8%，2025年1- 5月，国内市场手机出货量为1.18亿部，同比下降2.8%。 其中，2025年5月，智能手机出货量为2252.6万部，同比下降21.2%，占同期手机出货量的95%；智能手 机上市新机型27款，同比下降30.8%，占同期手机上市新机型数量的69.2%。 2025年1-5月，智能手机出货量为1.09亿部，同比下降4.9%，占同期手机出货量的92.3%；智能手机上市 新机型143款，同比增长2.9%，占同期手机上市新机型数量的70.8%。 该机构称，华为预计将成为第二季度中国市场同比增长最快的品牌，并有望重登销量榜首。苹果方面， 苹果5月份的销量增长得益于iPhone 16系列的促销活动，尤其是iP ...

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research forecasts a slight year-on-year growth in China's smartphone sales by Q2 2025, led by Huawei and Apple [1] - Apple's iPhone sales in China saw an 8% year-on-year increase from March to June, marking its first growth since Q2 2023 [1][3] - Huawei is expected to achieve a 12% year-on-year growth and reclaim the top position in the Chinese market in Q2 [1] Group 1: Apple Performance - Apple's growth in May was primarily driven by promotional activities for the iPhone 16 series, with three models ranking among the bestsellers [3] - The timing of Apple's price adjustments in May was strategic, coinciding with the 618 promotional period, which positively impacted sales [3] - Despite the recent growth, Apple's revenue in the Greater China region has faced a decline, with a 0.34% drop year-on-year in Q4 FY2024 and a 7.73% decrease for the entire fiscal year [3][4] Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Apple implemented significant price reductions for the iPhone 16 series, with discounts reaching up to 2530 yuan (approximately 351 USD) to maintain competitiveness [4] - The iPhone 16 Pro 128GB model saw its price drop to 5499 yuan, a 31% reduction from its original price of 7999 yuan, marking a significant pricing strategy shift [4][6] Group 3: Market Challenges - Analysts predict that iPhone sales in China may decline in the second half of the year due to weak consumer spending and the aging product cycle of the iPhone 16 [6] - The limited upgrades expected with the iPhone 17 may not stimulate strong demand, while local competitors like Huawei are aggressively targeting the high-end smartphone market [6]

中国智能手机销量份额（按OEM品牌划分） 智通财经APP获悉，根据Counterpoint Research最新的《中国智能手机周度销量追踪》初步数据，2025年第二季度中国智能手机销量预计将实现小幅同比 增长，华为与苹果（AAPL.US）成为主要增长驱动者。 华为预计将成为第二季度中国市场同比增长最快的品牌，并有望重登销量榜首。苹果方面，苹果5月份的销量增长得益于iPhone 16系列的促销活动，尤其 是iPhone 16 Pro和iPhone 16 Pro Max。 Counterpoint研究副总监Ethan Qi评论道："苹果在5月调整iPhone价格的时机非常合适，且反响良好，恰好赶在618促销前一周启动。" *注：第 22-25 周日期如下： | | Week 22 | Week 23 | Week 24 | Week 25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025: | May 26 - June 1 | June 2 - June 8 - June 15 - June 16 - June 22 | | | | 2024: | May 27 - June ...

机构：2025年第二季度中国智能手机销量预计将小幅同比增长 华为、苹果成主要增长驱动者 智通财经7月4日电，根据Counterpoint Research最新的《中国智能手机周度销量追踪》初步数据，2025 年第二季度中国智能手机销量预计将实现小幅同比增长，华为与苹果成为主要增长驱动者。华为预计将 成为第二季度中国市场同比增长最快的品牌，并有望重登销量榜首。苹果方面，苹果5月份的销量增长 得益于iPhone 16系列的促销活动，尤其是iPhone 16 Pro和iPhone 16 Pro Max。 ...