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宏观点评20260115:春季躁动后半程,行业如何轮动?-20260115
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-15 08:21
Market Trends - The spring market rally from December to February historically shows an average increase of 16%-18% for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index from 2010 to 2025[1] - The current spring rally is considered to be in its latter half, with a potential for a price increase lasting about one month before entering a consolidation phase[2] Industry Performance - Growth and technology sectors have a win rate exceeding 80%, with average excess returns over 3%[12] - High-end manufacturing follows, with average excess returns above 2%, while sectors like computing, communication, and electronics show average excess returns exceeding 4%[12] Sector Rotation - As of 2026, strong sectors include military (commercial aerospace), automotive (robots), and utilities, while previously leading sectors like non-ferrous metals and machinery are in a consolidation phase[3] - The focus should be on sectors with unchanged industrial trends but relatively lower recent gains, such as lithium batteries, energy storage, humanoid robots, innovative drugs, and AI hardware[32] Risks - Market sentiment can change rapidly, leading to accelerated contraction in trading volume[34] - Potential risks include slow progress in technological breakthroughs, tightening global liquidity due to changes in overseas market expectations, and increased geopolitical risks[34]
推进科技与文化融合 超集群类AI算力产品首获国际设计大奖
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-13 14:01
中新网北京1月13日电 (记者 孙自法)记者1月13日从中科曙光获悉,在最近举办的"越来越好"国际设计 大赛中,其推进科技与文化融合的scaleX万卡超集群,从全球69个国家和地区的15691份参赛作品中脱 颖而出,成功摘得大赛最受瞩目的"产品至尊奖"。 目前,人工智能已从辅助工具跃迁为核心生产要素,科学大模型、世界模型等前沿方向的迅猛发展,对 底层算力提出了前所未有的规模与性能要求,而高端算力供给不足、成本高昂已成为人工智能产业发展 的主要壁垒,scaleX万卡超集群的诞生,正是对这一产业痛点的精准回应。 据介绍,作为中科曙光面向大模型前沿方向、科学智能等复杂任务场景打造的大规模智能算力基础设施 方案,scaleX万卡超集群在超节点架构、高速互连网络、存储性能优化、系统管理调度等方面实现多项 创新突破,引领国产大规模算力集群技术进入新阶段。 更值得关注的是,scaleX万卡超集群将工业设计与前沿技术深度融合,运用模块化设计思路使功能区域 划分清晰明了,杜绝繁琐的形式化堆砌,用纯粹的人体工学造型排列成独特的韵律感,在破解产业难题 的同时,也呈现出大国重器简约、厚重、强劲的整体形象视觉美感。 中科曙光国家级工业 ...
瞄准英伟达,国产算力产业走向“闭环”
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-09 12:39
Core Insights - The Chinese computing power industry is experiencing rapid growth in capital operations, highlighted by significant IPOs and market enthusiasm for domestic semiconductor companies [1][2] - The focus of competition in the domestic computing power sector is shifting from hardware specifications to system stability, software ecosystem usability, and cost-effectiveness [3][4] Capital Market Activity - TianShuZhiXin Semiconductor Co., Ltd. went public on January 8, 2026, with over 400 times subscription, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other domestic GPU companies, such as MoEr Thread and MuXi Co., saw their stock prices surge on their debut, with MoEr Thread's market cap exceeding 305.5 billion yuan and MuXi's reaching 330 billion yuan [1] - ChangXin Technology submitted its IPO application on December 30, 2025, reporting revenue of 32.084 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing the scale of domestic DRAM production [1] Technological Developments - The "Ten Thousand Card Cluster" concept is becoming a benchmark for evaluating domestic computing power, but it also presents challenges in reliability as system scale increases [3][4] - The introduction of the scaleX Ten Thousand Card Super Cluster by ZhongKe Shuguang, featuring 10,240 AI accelerator cards, represents a significant advancement in system architecture [3][4] - The need for high-quality, low-latency data transmission networks is critical for supercomputing, with domestic products now matching international standards [5][6] Storage Solutions - ChangXin Technology and ChangChun Group are positioned in the core areas of DRAM and NAND Flash, respectively, with ChangXin reporting a compound annual growth rate of over 70% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [6][7] - The introduction of advanced technologies like Xtacking in NAND Flash production by ChangChun Group marks a significant technological breakthrough [7] Software Ecosystem - The transition to a robust software ecosystem is complex, with developers facing high costs in switching from established platforms like NVIDIA's CUDA [10][11] - MoEr Thread is addressing this by launching the MTT AIBOOK, which includes development tools to facilitate easier adoption of its platform [10] - Cloud service providers are playing a crucial role in integrating various hardware brands to create a unified software environment, addressing compatibility issues [11][12] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a shift towards collaborative ecosystems, with companies recognizing the need for specialization rather than attempting to cover the entire supply chain independently [9][12] - The emergence of customized products from companies like Haiguang is aimed at meeting the specific needs of large enterprises, reflecting a trend towards more open architectures [15] Future Outlook - The domestic computing power industry is expected to face challenges related to global supply chain fluctuations, particularly in DRAM and NAND supply [13] - The successful integration of domestic computing solutions in high-stakes environments, such as the National High Energy Physics Data Center, indicates growing confidence in local technologies [14] - The potential easing of export restrictions on NVIDIA's H200 chip could impact the domestic ecosystem, but the established supply chain and customer preferences for security are likely to mitigate risks [17]
瞄准英伟达!国产算力产业走向“闭环”
经济观察报· 2026-01-09 10:28
Core Viewpoint - The rapid advancement of China's computing power industry is highlighted by significant capital market activities, including the successful IPOs of domestic semiconductor companies, while challenges remain in practical applications and system integration [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Activities - Shanghai Tensu Zhixin Semiconductor Co., Ltd. went public on January 8, 2026, with over 400 times subscription, indicating strong market enthusiasm [2]. - Other domestic GPU companies, such as Moer Thread and Muxi Co., saw their stock prices surge by 468.78% and 692.95% respectively on their debut, with market capitalizations exceeding 305.5 billion and 330 billion yuan [2]. - Changxin Technology submitted its IPO application on December 30, 2025, reporting revenue of 32.084 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing the scale of domestic DRAM production [2][10]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The focus of competition in the computing power sector is shifting from hardware specifications to system stability, software ecosystem usability, and cost-effectiveness in commercial applications [6]. - The introduction of the scaleX super cluster by Zhongke Shuguang, featuring 10,240 AI accelerator cards, emphasizes the need for high reliability in large-scale systems [6][7]. - The development of a native 400G RDMA network by Zhongke Shuguang aims to enhance data transmission quality and reduce latency, crucial for supercomputing applications [7][8]. Group 3: Software Ecosystem Development - Moer Thread is addressing the challenge of transitioning developers to domestic computing platforms by launching the MTT AIBOOK, which includes essential development tools [13]. - The company also introduced a code migration model, MUSACode, to facilitate the transition from CUDA to its own platform, aiming for a 93% compilation rate [13]. - Cloud service providers are playing a critical role in integrating various hardware brands, thereby mitigating compatibility issues and enhancing resource management [15][16]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The supply chain for DRAM and NAND flash is under pressure, prompting cloud vendors to adjust procurement strategies to ensure resource availability [17]. - The adoption of domestic computing facilities by institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences indicates growing confidence in local technology, despite some performance gaps compared to international counterparts [19]. - The emergence of customized products from companies like Haiguang reflects a shift towards meeting specific client needs, enhancing market competitiveness [20]. Group 5: Industry Ecosystem and Future Outlook - The domestic computing power industry is forming a closed-loop ecosystem, integrating various components from storage to computing and application layers [21][22]. - The rise of domestic large models, such as DeepSeek, is redefining hardware competition standards, necessitating support for mixed-precision computing [21]. - Concerns about potential disruptions from international competitors, such as NVIDIA's H200 chip, are countered by the established supply chain and ecosystem resilience of domestic firms [21][22].
国产算力产业走向“闭环”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-01-09 08:41
Core Insights - The Chinese computing power industry is experiencing rapid acceleration in capital operations, highlighted by significant IPOs and market enthusiasm for domestic semiconductor companies [1][2] - The focus of competition in the domestic computing power sector is shifting from hardware specifications to system stability, software ecosystem usability, and cost-effectiveness in commercial applications [3][4] Capital Market Activity - TianShuZhiXin Semiconductor Co., Ltd. went public on January 8, 2026, with over 400 times subscription for its public offering, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other domestic GPU companies, such as MoEr Thread and MuXi Co., saw substantial stock price increases upon their listings, with MoEr Thread's stock rising by 468.78% on its debut [1] - ChangXin Technology submitted its IPO application on December 30, 2025, reporting revenue of 32.084 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing the scale of domestic DRAM production [1] Technological Developments - The "Ten Thousand Card Cluster" concept is becoming a benchmark for evaluating computing power systems, with challenges in reliability and fault tolerance as system scales increase [3][4] - The introduction of the scaleX Ten Thousand Card Super Cluster by ZhongKe Shuguang, featuring 10,240 AI acceleration cards, represents a significant technological advancement [3][5] - The need for high-quality, low-latency data transmission networks is critical for supercomputing, with domestic products now matching international standards [6][7] Storage Solutions - ChangXin Technology and ChangJiang Storage are positioned in key storage sectors, with ChangXin reporting a compound annual growth rate of over 70% in revenue from 2022 to 2024 [7][8] - The introduction of DDR5 memory and advancements in NAND Flash technology are crucial for supporting AI computing needs [8] Software Ecosystem Challenges - Transitioning developers from NVIDIA's CUDA to domestic platforms presents significant challenges due to high code restructuring costs [11] - MoEr Thread is addressing this by launching tools to facilitate easier migration to its ecosystem, aiming to cultivate a developer base [11][12] Cloud Services and Integration - Cloud service providers like UCloud are playing a vital role in integrating various domestic chip brands, addressing compatibility issues and enhancing resource management [12][13] - The need for localized solutions is emphasized, as latency and privacy concerns with cloud-based AI solutions drive demand for on-premises systems [14] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The domestic computing power industry is forming a closed-loop ecosystem, with companies collaborating across the supply chain to enhance competitiveness [17] - The potential easing of export restrictions on NVIDIA's H200 chip raises concerns about its impact on the nascent domestic ecosystem, but domestic clients prioritize supply chain security [17]
5000亿芯片巨头,大变局!
中国基金报· 2026-01-08 09:25
Core Viewpoint - Haiguang Information is building a large open ecosystem for domestic chips, aiming to establish a strong presence in the CPU industry and transition from chaotic competition to collaborative development in the AI computing sector [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Growth and Revenue - As of January 8, 2026, Haiguang Information's market capitalization exceeds 560 billion yuan [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 9.162 billion yuan in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach around 20 billion yuan by 2027, establishing a foothold in the global CPU competition [3][9]. - From 2020 to 2022, Haiguang Information's revenue doubled, and in 2023, it maintained a growth rate of 17.3%. The revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 52.4%, and by the first three quarters of 2025, it has already surpassed the total revenue of 2024, reaching 9.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.65% [6][8]. Group 2: Dual-Core Strategy - Haiguang Information is one of the few chip design companies with capabilities in both high-end general-purpose processors (CPU) and co-processors (DCU), having established a "dual-core" development strategy [3][9]. - The company has been iterating its CPU products approximately every 1.5 years to address performance bottlenecks, while also collaborating with various partners in the ecosystem to enhance product offerings [8][10]. - The DCU products, including the Deep Computing Unit (DCU), are designed to meet national strategic needs and have been well-received by clients and ecosystem partners [10]. Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Haiguang Information emphasizes the importance of building a collaborative ecosystem, having established the "Light Alliance" organization to integrate various partners across the chip, machine, software, and application sectors [21][23]. - As of December 2025, the Light Alliance has gathered over 6,000 partners and established 28 physical ecological adaptation centers, facilitating over 15,000 hardware and software adaptation testing projects [23]. - The company aims to create an open ecosystem that allows domestic users to gain confidence in the domestic chip industry, reducing reliance on foreign products [4][24]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Goals - The primary challenge for Haiguang Information is attracting more industry-leading manufacturers to the Light Alliance platform, ensuring that product development considers the strengths of all partners involved [24]. - The company has outlined its development phases, with the current phase (3.0) focusing on integrating with upstream and downstream partners to strengthen the domestic integrated circuit industry [4][24].
研报掘金丨国海证券:维持中科曙光“买入”评级,国产AI万卡超集群首次亮相
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-26 05:31
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities highlights the launch of the scaleX万卡超集群 by Zhongke Shuguang, marking a significant advancement in domestic AI supercomputing capabilities, with the system surpassing the 2027 roadmap of similar overseas products [1] Group 1: Product Overview - The scaleX万卡超集群 is a system composed of multiple scaleX640 supernodes interconnected via the scaleFabric high-speed network [1] - It features a global first with a single cabinet-level 640-card supernode, enabling a total deployment of 10,240 AI accelerator cards [1] - The overall computing power exceeds 5 EFlops, showcasing a breakthrough in computing, networking, and storage integration [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Some technologies and capabilities of the scaleX万卡超集群 have already surpassed the 2027 NVL576 milestone of similar overseas products [1] - The core advantages include the innovative architecture and high performance, positioning Zhongke Shuguang favorably in the AI supercomputing market [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The ongoing growth of national intelligent computing projects and CSP capital investments is expected to benefit Zhongke Shuguang as a leader in the domestic computing ecosystem [1] - The company's main business value is anticipated to be reassessed in light of the advancements in AI technology [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects [1]
加速锻造新质生产力 上市公司各显神通
Core Viewpoint - The technology theme is identified as the undisputed investment focus for 2025, with listed companies accelerating their development in both intrinsic and extrinsic ways to forge new productive forces [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - Listed companies have made significant breakthroughs in key areas such as AI, semiconductors, biomedicine, high-end equipment, and communications this year [2] - Notable achievements include the world's first four-channel ultra-low noise semiconductor single-photon detector by GuoDun Quantum, and the approval of the world's first "rice-based" innovative drug by HeYuan Bio [2] - The trend of humanoid robots continues to gain momentum, with companies like Green Harmonic and Estun launching advanced components and robots for industrial applications [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Mergers - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 107.32 trillion yuan, with the electronics sector leading at 12.42% of the market share, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points since the beginning of the year [3] - Companies are increasingly using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a strategy for resource reallocation and transformation, with significant activity in the semiconductor and information technology sectors [5] - In 2023, there were 1,104 new M&A disclosures in the Shenzhen market, totaling 553.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 54% [5] Group 3: Transition to New Productive Forces - Companies are focusing on transitioning to new productive forces, with examples like Wanlong Optoelectronics planning to acquire a leading infrastructure digital service provider [4] - The trend of cross-industry transformation is supported by policies, as seen with Songfa Co. transitioning from ceramics to shipbuilding and high-end equipment manufacturing [5] - The emphasis on high-quality development is evident as industries shift from "scale involution" to "quality upgrades," particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [6] Group 4: Innovation and Sustainability - Companies are investing heavily in R&D, with a total of 1.16 trillion yuan spent in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a scale above 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years [2] - The ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) concept is gaining traction, with companies like Shede Liquor pioneering ecological brewing practices [6] - The government is promoting innovation and technology integration, with plans to support the establishment of innovation consortia and enhance the development of high-tech enterprises [7]
国产万卡超集群亮相:中国人工智能,迈入新阶段
半导体芯闻· 2025-12-25 10:20
Core Viewpoint - The first HAIC2025 conference highlighted the challenges and innovations in AI computing architecture, emphasizing the need for collaboration and system-level solutions to meet the demands of large model training [2][4][13]. Group 1: AI Computing Challenges - The rapid evolution of large model technology has created unprecedented demands on computing equipment, particularly in memory capacity, bandwidth, energy efficiency, and system stability [2]. - The slowdown of Moore's Law has made it increasingly difficult for single-node solutions to meet the computational needs of AI, necessitating a shift towards system-level engineering [4][11]. - Companies are focusing on creating tightly integrated systems that can handle the complexities of AI applications, including the need for high-speed data transfer and energy efficiency [8][12]. Group 2: Innovations and Strategies - The introduction of the "Dual-Core Strategy" by Haiguang aims to enhance AI product diversity and deepen ecosystem connections within China, focusing on customized and application-specific solutions [5][6]. - The launch of the scaleX640 super node, which features advanced cooling and power supply technologies, represents a significant advancement in AI computing infrastructure, achieving a power usage effectiveness (PUE) of 1.04 [11][12]. - The scaleX super cluster, capable of deploying over 10,240 AI accelerator cards, showcases a total computing power exceeding 5 EFlops, marking a milestone in domestic AI cluster systems [11][12]. Group 3: Future Directions - The collaboration between Haiguang and Zhongke Shuguang aims to build a robust AI ecosystem by sharing technology and creating open standards for AI software stacks, which could lead to a "Chinese version of CUDA" [13][14]. - The focus on developing high-performance, reliable networks and systems is crucial for supporting the growing demands of AI applications and ensuring long-term operational reliability [13][14]. - The ongoing efforts in the AI sector reflect a commitment to overcoming international competition and establishing a prominent position for China's AI capabilities on the global stage [14].
scaleX万卡超集群落地 中国AI算力格局从“单点突围”转向“生态博弈”
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-24 08:51
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese computing power industry is at a strategic crossroads, deciding between continuing a closed technology stack approach or pioneering a new competitive model based on open collaboration [1][3]. Industry Challenges - The current domestic AI computing power industry faces a dilemma of "full-chain internal competition" and "dual barriers," leading to significant industry anxiety. Companies have invested heavily in creating isolated "technology islands," resulting in fragmentation and high adaptation costs for users [4][5]. - The performance gap and ecological barriers present deeper challenges, with domestic chips lagging behind international standards and NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem creating a strong lock-in effect [4]. Strategic Shift - The solution lies in transitioning from a "closed full-stack" to an "open layered" competitive logic, emphasizing collaboration among various manufacturers to create an industry platform that can systematically challenge dominant players [6][8]. - The establishment of the Photonic Organization serves as a platform to balance competition and cooperation, allowing companies to focus on their strengths while sharing results for mutual benefit [6][8]. Implementation of Open Architecture - Leading IT companies in China are moving away from a "large and comprehensive" model to a "focused and strong + ecological empowerment" approach, concentrating resources on their core competencies while opening other areas to ecosystem partners [8]. - The scaleX super cluster exemplifies this open architecture, achieving significant breakthroughs in system architecture and energy efficiency, with a 20-fold increase in computing density and a PUE of 1.04 [9]. Market Engagement - The open architecture aims to lower the barriers for users transitioning from closed ecosystems, enhancing cost efficiency and optimization for clients, particularly benefiting small AI chip design and software companies [9][10]. - The shift from standardized supply to joint customization is crucial for domestic computing power systems to penetrate mainstream commercial markets [10]. Future Outlook - The competition in the AI computing power industry is evolving into a battle between centralized control models and distributed innovation models based on open standards [14]. - The open path chosen by the Chinese industry reflects a deep understanding of its structural and innovative characteristics, aiming to harness the full potential of its comprehensive electronic information manufacturing chain and vibrant small to medium enterprises [14].