Summary of US Equity Strategy - January 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market, particularly the performance and outlook of major technology companies, referred to as "Big 6 TECH+" which includes Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple [19][22]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has shown a total return of 23.3% in 2024, with a significant recovery since the lows in October 2022 [4][19]. - The "Big 6 TECH+" companies have outperformed the broader market, achieving a total return of 143.2% since October 2022 [19][22]. Economic Indicators - The consensus forecast for nominal GDP growth in 2024 is around 2.8% to 3.2%, indicating a stable economic environment [12][14]. - Interest rates are expected to remain a critical factor, with the 10-year Treasury yield and high-yield (HY) spreads being closely monitored [9][49]. Earnings Growth - The consensus EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 is projected at 20.8%, with the "Big 6" expected to contribute significantly to this growth [40][41]. - EPS revisions for "Big 6 TECH+" show a positive trend, with Nvidia and Amazon leading with 3.0% and 11.0% increases in 2024 estimates, respectively [35][32]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio for "Big 6 TECH+" stands at 29.2, compared to the S&P 500 ex-Big 6 at 19.1, indicating a premium valuation for tech stocks [36]. - The report highlights the importance of free cash flow (FCF) as a percentage of sales, with "Big 6 TECH+" showing strong performance in this area [46]. Market Sentiment and Risks - There is a noted concern regarding potential recessionary pressures, with futures implying Fed cuts expected in the near term [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to remain cautious, as market conditions can change rapidly due to economic shifts and interest rate adjustments [54]. Additional Important Insights - The "Big 6" companies represent a significant portion of the S&P 500 market cap, accounting for 31.2% [20][22]. - The report discusses the implications of valuation methods and the potential risks associated with high valuations in the tech sector [54][87]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the US Equity Strategy report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future outlook for investors.

Global Research ab 6 January 2025 Quant Navigator Quant Models for Fundamental Investors: Opportunities & Risk, Dec Update Quant Navigator: Leveraging Quant Tools with Human Insights Quantitative tools enable us to analyze large volumes of historical information. Where quant models are at a disadvantage, we can leverage human insights to make more informed investment decisions. By combining human insights with machine analytics, we're able to address the various sources of return variation (beta, macro, sty ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the semiconductor industry in China, particularly the progress in semiconductor localization and the impact of domestic demand subsidies amid limited tariff effects [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Price Competition in Foundries**: Ongoing price competition in mature node foundries is noted, with some inventory digestion and China's subsidies for consumer electronics purchases contributing to this dynamic [2][3]. 2. **IC Design Sector Performance**: China's integrated circuit (IC) design sector is expected to reach CNY646 billion (approximately US$90 billion) in 2024, reflecting a ~12% year-over-year increase, but this growth lags behind the global semiconductor industry growth estimated at 19% [2][3]. 3. **Company Closures**: Over 14,600 Chinese semiconductor companies closed in 2024, primarily in consumer electronics, semiconductor component distribution, and analog sectors, indicating a normalization in the growth of China's chip design industry [2][3]. 4. **Price Reductions by Chinese Foundries**: Prices for 12-inch wafers from Chinese foundries have decreased by up to 40% compared to Taiwanese companies, with 20-30% discounts on 8-inch wafers. This pricing pressure has been ongoing since mid-2024 [2][3]. 5. **US Trade Investigation**: The Biden Administration has initiated a trade investigation into older Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors, which may lead to increased tariffs. However, the direct impact on Chinese mature node chip companies is expected to be limited due to low export volumes to the US [2][3]. 6. **Stock Implications**: Caution is advised regarding mature node foundries like UMC and Vanguard due to competition from China, while a positive outlook is maintained for Chinese wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) companies like NAURA and AMEC due to aggressive capital expenditure plans [2][3]. Additional Insights 1. **Semi Equipment Imports**: China's semiconductor equipment imports were valued at US$29 billion from January to November 2024, marking a 20% year-over-year increase, although growth is decelerating [6][7]. 2. **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Development**: China is still behind in HBM technology, with local vendors only able to produce 4-8 layer HBM, while CXMT targets volume production in the second half of 2025 [7][8]. 3. **Self-Sufficiency Projections**: China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio is projected to reach 25% by 2026, up from 20% in 2023, driven by weak consumer demand and limited breakthroughs in advanced logic chips [28][29]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor market is experiencing a divergence in stock performance, with notable outperformance from companies like Espressif and GigaDevice, attributed to demand from AI applications [10][11]. Conclusion The conference call highlights the challenges and opportunities within China's semiconductor industry, emphasizing the impact of domestic policies, competitive pricing, and the ongoing transition towards greater self-sufficiency in semiconductor production. The insights provided are crucial for understanding the current landscape and future trends in the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call is part of the "Data Centers & AI: Powering the Future Series 7" focusing on the utilities and clean energy sector, particularly the evolving power demand for AI and data centers [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Power Demand Evolution**: Discussion on how AI and data centers' power demand has evolved in 2024 and expectations for 2025/26 [9]. - **Nuclear Power Viability**: Examination of the role of nuclear power in supporting AI and data centers, including potential risks for big tech companies in expanding nuclear capacity [9]. - **Gas Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)**: Consideration of behind-the-meter or virtual PPA deals for gas power plants with data centers, including who would bear commodity risks [9]. - **Net Zero Targets**: Analysis of how rising power consumption and emissions could impact big tech's net zero targets [9]. - **Renewable Energy Contribution**: Exploration of the potential for wind and solar energy to play a significant role in powering AI [9]. - **Emerging Power Solutions**: Discussion on other emerging powering and energy efficiency solutions for AI and data centers [9]. - **Political Debate**: Overview of the political debate in the US regarding the impact of AI and data center demand on grids and electricity bills [9]. Additional Important Content - **Speaker Background**: Brian Janous, Chief Strategy Officer and Co-Founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructure, has extensive experience in energy and decarbonization, previously serving as VP of Energy at Microsoft [5][10]. - **Consultancy Role**: Cloverleaf Infrastructure focuses on grid expansion to support large electric customer loads, which is critical for economic growth and investment [5]. - **Call Registration**: The call is hosted by a team of equity analysts specializing in utilities and clean energy, indicating a collaborative approach to research and analysis [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the critical issues facing the utilities and clean energy sector in relation to AI and data centers.

January 6, 2025 05:08 AM GMT US Banks | North America How Willing Is Your Bank to Pay Up for Deposits? December 2024 Short-term CD Rates continue to come down, long-term CD rates were stable: In line with the Fed cutting cycle, banks continue to bring down rates offered on short- term (1-12 month) CDs. Rates on Long-term (13-36 month) CDs were stable as banks had already been reducing these offerings well ahead of Fed cuts. CD Rates Data Summary: Investment recommendations: Our Overweight-rated banks (in or ...

Deep Mehta +1(212)357-8419 | deep.mehta@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 5 January 2025 | 9:49PM EST 2024 US Factor Review Ujjwal Mahajan +1(332)245-7708 | ujjwal.mahajan@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investm ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Market Reaction**: Tencent's share price fell by more than 7-8% during US market hours due to its inclusion in the Department of Defense (DoD) Section 1260H list, which is expected to be published on January 7, 2025 [1][4]. Core Points and Arguments - **Market Panic**: The market's reaction is viewed as panic-driven, and it is suggested that the inclusion in the list does not confirm the correctness of the decision [1]. - **Response to DoD**: Tencent is expected to work with the DoD to clarify any misunderstandings, similar to other companies that have been successfully removed from the list after providing valid explanations [1][3]. - **Investment Outlook**: Despite the near-term overhang on share price due to investor sensitivity, the overall growth outlook and business fundamentals for Tencent are considered intact. The sell-off is viewed as an enhanced buying opportunity [1][4]. Financial Metrics - **Current Share Price**: HK$409.40 as of January 6, 2025 [5]. - **Target Price**: HK$573.00, implying a potential return of 40.0% and a total expected return of 40.7% including a dividend yield of 0.8% [5]. Valuation Approach - **SOTP Valuation**: The target price is based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) approach, with various segments valued as follows: - **Online Games**: Valued at HK$127 per share (22% of target price) using a 12x P/E on estimated net profit of Rmb89.9 billion for 2025. - **Online Advertising**: Valued at HK$148 per share (26% of target price) using a 25x P/E on estimated ads profit of Rmb50.1 billion for 2025. - **Social Network**: Valued at HK$149 per share (26% of target price) using a 25x P/E on estimated profit of Rmb50.4 billion. - **Fintech**: Valued at HK$67 per share (12% of target price) using a 15x P/E on estimated profit of Rmb37.7 billion. - **Cloud/Business Services**: Valued at HK$29 per share (5% of target price) using a 5x P/S on estimated revenues of Rmb49 billion. - **Investment Portfolio**: Valued at HK$53 per share after applying a 30% discount to equity stakes [7]. Risks - **Downside Risks**: Potential risks that could prevent Tencent shares from reaching the target price include: - Faster-than-expected revenue slowdown in core PC games [8]. - Unsuccessful launches of new mobile games. - Decline in the ranking and momentum of "Honor of Kings". - Further slowdown in China's economy affecting advertising demand. - Changes in the regulatory environment [8]. Additional Insights - **Successful Removals from Section 1260H**: Examples of companies that were previously included in the Section 1260H list and later removed include Hesai Technology and IDG Capital Partners, indicating a possible path for Tencent [2]. - **Tencent's Statement**: Tencent's representative described the inclusion on the list as "clearly a mistake" and emphasized their commitment to resolving any misunderstandings with the DoD [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tencent Holdings, highlighting the company's current situation, market reactions, financial metrics, valuation, risks, and additional insights.

Key Points Meta Platforms - **Ending Fact-Checking**: Meta Platforms is ending fact-checking and removing restrictions on speech across Facebook and Instagram. This move is described as an attempt to restore free expression on the platforms. - **Community Notes System**: Meta will replace fact-checkers with a Community Notes system, similar to Elon Musk's X platform. Users will flag posts that need more context. - **Shift in Policy**: This shift in policy is likely motivated by Meta's desire to mend fences with Republicans and head off regulation. It also responds to the message sent by voters who elected Donald Trump. - **Content Moderation**: Zuckerberg acknowledged that content moderation had gone too far, leading to too many mistakes and censorship. U.S. Economy - **Labor Market**: The share of workers who quit their job in November fell from a month earlier, indicating weakening in the labor market. - **Inflation**: Inflation remains a concern, with the Federal Reserve trimming borrowing costs again and companies preparing for a new administration in Washington. - **Services Activity**: U.S. services activity increased more than expected in December, but the index remains below the level booked in October, suggesting services businesses remain wary ahead of Donald Trump's presidency. Technology - **Amazon Cloud and AI Infrastructure**: Amazon.com plans to spend at least $11 billion to expand its cloud and artificial-intelligence infrastructure in Georgia to meet a boom in demand. - **Microsoft India Expansion**: Microsoft plans to spend $3 billion over the next two years to expand its cloud and artificial-intelligence infrastructure in India. - **Shein and Forced Labor**: The U.K. parliamentary committee grilled representatives of China-founded bargain site Shein over the sourcing of its cotton and declared severe dissatisfaction with Shein's lack of answers regarding forced labor concerns. Real Estate - **Office Vacancy**: Office vacancy remains near record levels in many cities, where a glut of unwanted and aging workspace is keeping a lid on rents and depressing office values. - **Tenant Demand**: Large tenants are increasingly finding slim pickings for top-shelf workspace, especially in hot spots like New York City's Park Avenue, Miami's Brickell district, and Century City in Los Angeles. - **Landlord Response**: Some of the country's largest office owners are moving to fill the void by investing in renovations and new developments. Other - **Cintas Bid for UniFirst**: Cintas, a maker of workplace products, made a $5.1 billion offer for smaller uniform supplier UniFirst, which has been rebuffed multiple times. - **Paychex Acquisition of Paycor HCM**: Payroll-services company Paychex is acquiring rival Paycor HCM in a deal with an enterprise value of about $4.1 billion. - **Getty and Shutterstock Merger**: Getty Images Holdings and photo rival Shutterstock said they will join forces to form a company worth about $3.7 billion to meet the demand for licensed images and videos. - **U.S. Rent Collusion Suit**: The Justice Department is adding six major apartment landlords to its lawsuit against real-estate software company RealPage, expanding the scope of its allegations that the rent-setting algorithm enabled illegal price fixing. - **JPMorgan Return-to-Office Plan**: Senior executives at JPMorgan Chase are discussing a plan to require all of the bank's roughly 300,000 employees to return to the office five days a week. - **ING Organic Expansion**: ING Groep is sticking to its plans to grow organically in markets where it already operates, even as several European rivals turn to mergers and acquisitions to expand. - **JPMorgan Exiting Climate Coalition**: JPMorgan Chase said it would withdraw from a pandemic-era climate coalition, the last of the U.S. megabanks to do so as American corporations continues its broad pullback from ESG initiatives. - **WuXi Selling Vaccine Plant**: WuXi Biologics agreed to sell an overseas vaccine facility to Merck & Co. for half a billion dollars, a move that could strengthen the company's cash flow and margins as it navigates global uncertainties.

ABCD ropolitan Washington. ESU V1 V2 V3 V4 Democracy Dies in Darkness wednesday, january 8, 2025 . Partly sunny 33/20 • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, windy 31/19 B6 $4 the funeral procession carrying the casket of former president Jimmy Carter passes the u.s. Capitol, where he will lie in state. Celebrating a 'servant of the people' With a storm just passed and snow blanketing the region, scores of onlookers flanked Pennsylvania Avenue nW, bathed in icy air and waning sunshine, as a military proces- sion escorted ...

Prices may vary in areas outside metropol ABCD itan Washington. ErE V1 V2 V3 V4 Democracy Dies in Darkness tuesday, january 7, 2025 . Partly sunny, windy 36/23 • Tomorrow: Cold 32/19 B6 $4 Strong storm packs a wallop Power outages, traffic snarls follow as snow treks east This article is by Ben Noll, Kasha Patel, Matthew Cappucci, Lori Aratani and Jonathan Edwards A wide-reaching winter storm dropped more than a foot of snow and closed major highways in parts of the Midwest before con- tinuing its Monday tr ...