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Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. - **Company**: Not explicitly mentioned, but the analysis is centered around the Federal Reserve's actions and projections. Key Points and Arguments - **Fed Rate Cut Expectation**: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its target policy range by another 25bp to 4.25-4.50% in December, bringing the cumulative reduction to 100bp since the easing cycle began in September [17]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is projected to continue on a downward trajectory, with the median of the dot plot projecting four 25bp rate cuts in 2025 and one 25bp rate cut in 2026 [17]. - **Labor Market**: The labor market has cooled but remains stable, suggesting it is not weak enough to justify a larger easing of policy [19]. - **CPI Inflation**: The November CPI report showed further deceleration in housing-related inflation, particularly in shelter inflation [20]. - **FOMC Statement**: The FOMC statement is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting the expected 25bp reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate [32]. - **Economic Projections**: The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) show stronger growth in 2024, slower disinflation in 2025 and 2026, and fewer rate cuts in the appropriate policy path [44]. - **Rate Cut Projections**: The median member is expected to project 100bp of rate cuts in 2025 for a median policy rate of 3.4%, and only 25bp of further easing in 2026 to 3.1% [57]. - **Risks**: Risks skew in the direction of fewer cuts, including concerns about inflation, restrictive trade and immigration policies, and upward revisions to the longer run neutral rate [60]. - **Press Conference Expectations**: Chair Powell is expected to express confidence in disinflation and signal caution in moving to a neutral policy stance [82]. - **Balance Sheet Policies**: The ON RRP rate is expected to be reduced by 5bp, but no clear signal on the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [86]. Other Important Points - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted from $8.9tn to $6.9tn since the start of quantitative tightening (QT) in June 2022 [87]. - The Fed's goal is to return to an "ample reserves" regime, where day-to-day fluctuations in liquidity demand do not show through to money market rates [102]. - The Fed could stop its balance sheet runoff with a slightly larger buffer for risk management reasons, or engage in temporary operations to smooth out the volatility in reserve balances [113].

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Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: China Consumer Goods, focusing on online retail and consumer behavior. * **Company**: Not specified, but the report covers various consumer goods categories and brands across different platforms like Tmall, Taobao, JD, and Douyin. Key Highlights 1. **Category Performance**: * **Durables (RVC and White Goods)**: Outperformed with 53%/19% yoy growth, benefiting from trade-in programs. * **Dairy/Beer/Small Kitchen Appliances**: Grew at 14%/12%/9% yoy. * **Cosmetics**: Ranked bottom with -17% yoy decline, though Douyin channel growth offset some negative impact. * **Sportswear and Sports Shoes**: Grew at 2%/-9% yoy. * **Pet Food**: Grew slightly, with Douyin channel contributing to 49% yoy growth. 2. **Domestic vs. MNC Brands**: * **Cosmetics**: Selective local brands like Giant, Mao Ge Ping, Kans, and Proya gained market share, while Botanee and Bloomage lagged. * **Sportswear**: Both MNCs and local brands showed accelerating online growth. 3. **Brand Performance**: * **Outperforming Brands**: Comfy, Maogepinng, Midea, Roborock, Gambol, Xtep, Lululemon, Hayday, Pop Mart. * **Underperforming Brands**: Nutrilon, Sulwhasoo, QuadHA, Gree, Byhealth, Carlsberg. 4. **Online vs. Offline**: * Brands have been executing omni-channel strategies, suggesting that online sales data may not fully reflect actual growth. 5. **Trending Brands**: * The report highlights various trending brands across different categories, including infant formula, cosmetics, food and beverages, pet care, and more. Additional Important Points * **Online Penetration**: Online sales have been increasing over the past few years and could account for up to 30%-35% of overall sales in certain categories. * **Data Source**: The report uses data from Moojing, a source that tracks data through web crawler technology on Alibaba/JD platforms. * **Methodology**: The report analyzes online sales data, market share trends, and brand performance across various consumer goods categories and platforms. Conclusion The report provides valuable insights into the performance of various consumer goods categories and brands in China, highlighting trends and key players in the online retail space. It also emphasizes the importance of omni-channel strategies and the increasing role of online sales in the consumer goods industry.

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更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 December 11, 2024 10:48 AM GMT M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 12 Dec 2024 02:22:19 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #151 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Tracker shuinu9870 CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency, onground demand trends in China – market expectation of demand recovery has been mostly cautious. Our revised n ...

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shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： North America shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： December 11, 2024 11:14 AM GMT Morqan Stanley | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------| | General Market Summary Treasury | | | Summary | | | SOFR Futures Rolldown Report | | | STRIPS | | | TIPS | | For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosures Section, located at the end of t ...

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