凌晨刷到美股数据的时候，我琢磨着得跟大伙唠唠——道指、标普齐刷刷踩上了历史新高，标普更是头一回稳稳站在6700点以上，可转头一看，美国政 府时隔五年，又停摆了。这一热一冷的反差，是不是跟你睡前想的"利空就该跌"完全不一样？ 做了20年财经记者，见多了市场跟政策的"拧巴时刻"，但这次还真有点意思。按说政府停摆不是小动静：国会预算办公室算了，大概75万联邦雇员要无薪 休假，连美联储接下来做决策的"指路牌"——9月非农就业报告，都得往后拖，毕竟劳工统计局一停摆，啥数据都发不出来。可美股偏偏不慌，纳维利尔 那哥们说得实在，"那些等着跌下来抄底的，可能还得再等等"，市场这股子冲劲，倒是比预期里稳得多。 其实核心就俩字：预期。交易员们心里跟明镜似的，这次停摆大概率长不了——两党闹归闹，一个要补医疗税收抵免，一个不松口，可真拖久了，影响 经济不说，连穆迪这种评级机构都可能再盯着美国信用"挑刺"，五年前那波停摆的教训，谁也没忘。但也别光看表面热闹，藏在新高背后的"小疙瘩"也得 拎出来：你看ADP数据，9月私营就业不光没涨，还少了3.2万，劳动力市场有点软；通胀没完全歇菜，股票估值又在高位，现在美联储没了关键数据指 引，跟"盲 ...

尽管降息预期已在市场消化，但一些基金经理认为，美联储的行动可能比市场预期更为激进。如果美联 储意外降息50个基点，金价涨势可能会加速。 随着特朗普政府持续攻击美联储的独立性，以及关税驱动通胀在美国经济中蔓延，金融市场开始显示滞 胀威胁迹象。市场分析人士认为，这一趋势可能导致黄金取代美元成为首要的价值储存手段。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨36.0美分，收于每盎司43.190美元，涨幅为0.84%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约9月15日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 15日上涨33.1美元，收于每盎司3719.5美元，涨幅为0.90%。 美元指数走弱，原油价格走强利好黄金、白银期价，中美西班牙贸易谈判传出一些利好消息也形成了提 振。 惠誉评级周末将法国政府信用评级从AA-下调至A+，理由是该国公共债务不断上升且政治不稳定。惠 誉警告称，2027年法国总统大选前的准备工作将进一步限制财政整顿的空间。 全球市场正在等待美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。会议16日开始，17日下午结束，届时美联储 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将发表声明并举行新闻发布会。市场预计美联 ...

Key Points Summary Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance in the short term, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another potential cut in December, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook [5][16]. - Powell's assessment of the labor market has shifted to focus on downside risks, suggesting that the labor market is cooling and that there is an increasing risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [12][13]. - The report highlights that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on inflation, with Powell indicating that the effects will be temporary and not likely to create a wage-price spiral [12][14]. Group 2: Key Economic Data - In the U.S., new housing starts exceeded expectations at 1.428 million units, while existing home sales showed a slight increase to 4.01 million units, with a median home price of $422,400 [20][22]. - The report notes that the UK is experiencing increased inflationary pressures, with July CPI rising to 3.8% year-on-year, driven by food and service costs [26][27]. - Germany's GDP was revised down to a seasonally adjusted -0.3% for Q2, indicating economic contraction, while the Eurozone's construction output fell by 0.8% [28][29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The market has shown a rebound following Powell's dovish comments, with a resurgence of easing trades observed around the Jackson Hole meeting [11][17]. - The report outlines various trading patterns, indicating that easing (rate cuts) typically leads to increases in stock and bond markets, while tightening (rate hikes) results in declines [18]. - The report also notes a mixed performance in the manufacturing sector, with the U.S. PMI data exceeding expectations, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery [20][28].

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-22 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 逐 | 全 | 美 | 制 | 现 | 风 | 美 | 但 | 份 | 降 | 望 | " | 大， | 体 | 对 | 的 | 加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有 | 尔 | 调 | 月 | 要 | 行 | 不 | 场 | 增 | 4， | 单 | 霍 | 9 | 期 | 纪 | 化 | 下 | 市 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - Moody's upgraded Pakistan's local and foreign currency issuer ratings and senior unsecured debt rating from Caa2 to Caa1, changing the outlook from "positive" to "stable" [9] - The IMF delegation is expected to visit Pakistan at the end of September for an economic review, with the anticipation of receiving a third loan tranche of $1 billion after the review [9] - As of August 8, the State Bank of Pakistan reported an increase of $11 million in foreign exchange reserves, reaching $14.2432 billion, while commercial banks' net foreign exchange reserves decreased by $10 million to $5.2535 billion [9] Group 2 - The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.31% increase in short-term inflation week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.21%, with 17 out of 51 surveyed items experiencing price increases [9] - The Pakistan Securities and Exchange Commission announced the final revision of the public offering system, effective from August 6, 2025, aimed at enhancing IPO efficiency through competition, technology, and transparent pricing mechanisms [10] - The latest report from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicated a 0.74% contraction in the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector for the fiscal year 2024-2025, despite a 4.14% year-on-year growth in June, with significant declines in sectors such as tobacco, textiles, and automotive [11]

惠誉预计，到2027年，沙特的主权净外汇资产将达到GDP的35.3%，这一水平远高于"A"级国家的平均 水平（仅为GDP的3.1%）。 ZAWYA新闻网7月28日报道，国际评级机构惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）确认沙特阿拉伯长期外币发行人 违约评级为 A+，展望为稳定，并指出该国财政状况强劲、改革进程持续推进。 惠誉表示，沙特的信用评级体现了其金融基本面的稳健性。报告指出，包括主权净外汇资产状况和债务 占GDP比率等关键指标，均显著优于"A"级，甚至"AA"级国家的平均水平。惠誉强调，沙特拥有大量金 融储备，包括公共部门存款和其他资产，这些为其宏观经济稳定提供有力支撑。 ...

近日，由东方金诚评级的"肇庆市高要区高宏产业投资发展有限公司2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行乡村振兴公司债券(第一期)"（以下简称"本期债 券"）在深交所债券市场成功发行，为肇庆市地方国有企业首单乡村振兴公司债券。本期债券发行规模为2.58亿元，发行期限为3+2年，当期票面利率为 2.19%，创2025年初至簿记日华南地区区县级地方国企乡村振兴公司债新低。 | 守正立信 持诚致远 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东方金诚功力肇庆市高要区高宏产业投资发展有限公司 2025年画向专业投资者非公开发行乡村掘兴公司员劳 | | | | | | 高 | | -期)成功发行 | | | | 肇庆市地方国有企业首单乡村振兴公司债券 | | | | | | 债券简称 | 发行规模 | 当期票面利率 | 发行期限 | 主体/债项评级 | | 25高要V1 2.58亿元 | | 2.19% | 3+2 € | AA+/AAA | | 肇庆市高要区高宏产业 投资发展有限公司 | | 北京市西 | | | | 发行人 主承销商/簿记管理人 | | | 担保机构 | 评级机构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US Dollar, currently trading around 1.1559, with a slight increase of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1545. However, there are warnings about potential interest rate cuts if trade tensions escalate [1]. Economic Indicators - The current interest rate of 2% is positioned within the European Central Bank's neutral range of 1.5%-2.5%. Economists are concerned that if trade tensions worsen, further rate cuts may be necessary to maintain confidence [1]. - Sylvain Broyer, Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings EMEA, suggests that actual interest rates have effectively reached zero, and Germany's upcoming economic stimulus plan could have a significant impact across the Eurozone [1]. Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market remains tight, with unemployment rates below equilibrium levels, indicating potential inflationary pressures as suggested by the traditional Phillips curve [1]. Market Expectations - There is a possibility that the market's expectation of rate cuts may reverse, with the next action from the European Central Bank potentially being an interest rate hike instead [1]. - The pricing gap between the bond market and the currency market has reached its largest level in 2023, indicating significant trading opportunities [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro's recent decline has confirmed a lower high around 1.1770, suggesting the potential for further declines, with negative pressure targeting a close below the previous low of 1.1550 and the 50-day simple moving average [1]. - A bearish head and shoulders pattern has been completed on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [1].

Fiscal Impact - The new tariff policy has shown immediate revenue effects, with the U.S. Treasury collecting $17.43 billion in tariffs in the first month and $24 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 270% [3] - By June 26, the cumulative tariff revenue reached $27.26 billion, with expectations to surpass $28 billion by the end of the month, indicating a significant increase in tax base without triggering trade shrinkage risks [3] Price Stability - Despite soaring tariff revenues, consumer prices have remained stable, with the core CPI growth staying below 3% for three consecutive months since March, and an overall CPI increase of only 2.4% in May [5] - The price of major consumer goods rose by just 0.3% in May, with significant price drops in televisions and smartphones, and even the automotive sector, which faced a 25% tariff, saw a price increase limited to 0.4% [5][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Importers engaged in preemptive purchasing before the tariff implementation, creating a buffer of inventory that delayed price increases for several months [7] - The lag in supply chain adjustments means that the current consumer market reflects pre-tariff cost structures, with potential price impacts expected to manifest in the third quarter [7] Long-term Concerns - As inventory depletes, the ability of importers to absorb tariff costs will be tested, leading to inevitable cost pass-through to consumers [9] - Economic institutions are cautious about the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with predictions that the average effective tariff rate could rise to the 15% range by the end of the year, potentially pushing core CPI to 3% to 3.5% [9] Global Trade Implications - The U.S.-led tariff strategy is reshaping international trade dynamics, with emerging market economies facing challenges and multinational corporations adopting more conservative investment strategies [11] - The eventual adjustment of global supply chains and the pressure on importers' profit margins may lead U.S. consumers to confront the true costs of the tariff policy [11]

Group 1 - As of March 31, 2025, there are 5,625 issuers of corporate credit bonds and financial bonds in the interbank market, with 3,065 non-financial corporate debt financing tools, 4,189 corporate bonds, and 505 financial bond issuers [1] - The distribution of issuer ratings shows that AA-rated issuers account for 25.51%, 38.74%, and 9.31% respectively, while issuers rated AA+ and above account for 70.54%, 51.47%, and 65.35% [1] - There are 12,266 outstanding local government bonds, with AAA-rated bonds making up 97.11%, and 9,684 asset-backed securities with 44.53% rated AA and above [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 15 rating agencies collectively undertook 2,609 bond products, a decrease of 4.92% quarter-on-quarter, and 2,200 issuer ratings, down 21.06% [2] - The leading agencies by business volume are China Chengxin International and United Ratings, with market shares of 33.92% and 20.9% respectively [2] Group 3 - There were 19 rating adjustments made by rating agencies in the first quarter, a decrease of 36% quarter-on-quarter, with 8 positive adjustments and 7 negative adjustments [3] - China Chengxin International made the most positive adjustments, raising the ratings of 4 issuers, while Zhongceng Pengyuan had the most negative adjustments, lowering the ratings of 4 issuers [3] Group 4 - In the first quarter, 114 issuers changed their rating agencies, a decrease of 22 year-on-year and 60 quarter-on-quarter, with an upgrade rate of 7.02% for those whose new agency provided a higher rating [4] - Standard & Poor's (China) upgraded 4 issuers, representing 100% of its new agency assignments [4] Group 5 - As of March 31, 2025, there are 902 issuers with ratings from two or more agencies, representing 17.22% of outstanding bond issuers, with a discrepancy rate of 7.10% [5] - The discrepancies in ratings are all within one sub-level, with China Chengxin International rating 11 issuers higher than others, accounting for 2.14% [5]