2025 年 8 月 25 日 民银国际研究团队 研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 29 期） 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | 2025-08-22 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | 4.26 | -7.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | 3.68 | -7.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | 1.62 | 5.4 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | 0.86 | 4.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | 2.75 | 2.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | 1.97 | 3.0 bp | | 标 普500指 数 | 6466.91 | 0.27 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21496.53 | -0.58 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 45631.74 | 1.53 % | | 日 经225指 数 | 42633.29 | -1.72 % | | 伦敦富时100指 数 | 9321.40 | 2.00 % | | 巴 黎CAC4 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-22 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 逐 | 全 | 美 | 制 | 现 | 风 | 美 | 但 | 份 | 降 | 望 | " | 大， | 体 | 对 | 的 | 加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有 | 尔 | 调 | 月 | 要 | 行 | 不 | 场 | 增 | 4， | 单 | 霍 | 9 | 期 | 纪 | 化 | 下 | 市 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Fiscal Impact - The new tariff policy has shown immediate revenue effects, with the U.S. Treasury collecting $17.43 billion in tariffs in the first month and $24 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 270% [3] - By June 26, the cumulative tariff revenue reached $27.26 billion, with expectations to surpass $28 billion by the end of the month, indicating a significant increase in tax base without triggering trade shrinkage risks [3] Price Stability - Despite soaring tariff revenues, consumer prices have remained stable, with the core CPI growth staying below 3% for three consecutive months since March, and an overall CPI increase of only 2.4% in May [5] - The price of major consumer goods rose by just 0.3% in May, with significant price drops in televisions and smartphones, and even the automotive sector, which faced a 25% tariff, saw a price increase limited to 0.4% [5][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Importers engaged in preemptive purchasing before the tariff implementation, creating a buffer of inventory that delayed price increases for several months [7] - The lag in supply chain adjustments means that the current consumer market reflects pre-tariff cost structures, with potential price impacts expected to manifest in the third quarter [7] Long-term Concerns - As inventory depletes, the ability of importers to absorb tariff costs will be tested, leading to inevitable cost pass-through to consumers [9] - Economic institutions are cautious about the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with predictions that the average effective tariff rate could rise to the 15% range by the end of the year, potentially pushing core CPI to 3% to 3.5% [9] Global Trade Implications - The U.S.-led tariff strategy is reshaping international trade dynamics, with emerging market economies facing challenges and multinational corporations adopting more conservative investment strategies [11] - The eventual adjustment of global supply chains and the pressure on importers' profit margins may lead U.S. consumers to confront the true costs of the tariff policy [11]

Group 1 - As of March 31, 2025, there are 5,625 issuers of corporate credit bonds and financial bonds in the interbank market, with 3,065 non-financial corporate debt financing tools, 4,189 corporate bonds, and 505 financial bond issuers [1] - The distribution of issuer ratings shows that AA-rated issuers account for 25.51%, 38.74%, and 9.31% respectively, while issuers rated AA+ and above account for 70.54%, 51.47%, and 65.35% [1] - There are 12,266 outstanding local government bonds, with AAA-rated bonds making up 97.11%, and 9,684 asset-backed securities with 44.53% rated AA and above [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 15 rating agencies collectively undertook 2,609 bond products, a decrease of 4.92% quarter-on-quarter, and 2,200 issuer ratings, down 21.06% [2] - The leading agencies by business volume are China Chengxin International and United Ratings, with market shares of 33.92% and 20.9% respectively [2] Group 3 - There were 19 rating adjustments made by rating agencies in the first quarter, a decrease of 36% quarter-on-quarter, with 8 positive adjustments and 7 negative adjustments [3] - China Chengxin International made the most positive adjustments, raising the ratings of 4 issuers, while Zhongceng Pengyuan had the most negative adjustments, lowering the ratings of 4 issuers [3] Group 4 - In the first quarter, 114 issuers changed their rating agencies, a decrease of 22 year-on-year and 60 quarter-on-quarter, with an upgrade rate of 7.02% for those whose new agency provided a higher rating [4] - Standard & Poor's (China) upgraded 4 issuers, representing 100% of its new agency assignments [4] Group 5 - As of March 31, 2025, there are 902 issuers with ratings from two or more agencies, representing 17.22% of outstanding bond issuers, with a discrepancy rate of 7.10% [5] - The discrepancies in ratings are all within one sub-level, with China Chengxin International rating 11 issuers higher than others, accounting for 2.14% [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has experienced a stable revenue environment, with most revenues being recurring and insulated from short-term volatility [12][13] - The guidance for the ratings business reflects expected ups and downs due to market volatility, with a flat year-over-year build in issuance anticipated [23][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mobility division is being spun off, which had shown 8.4% growth last year with a 39% margin, indicating strong performance [15][17] - Private credit revenues have grown strongly, with a reported 21% growth in enterprise private markets revenues in the current year [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global debt markets are experiencing volatility, but the company has a solid foundation for understanding investor behavior, which informs their guidance [22][23] - The company anticipates a flat M&A environment, with pent-up demand expected to manifest in future years [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on integrating data teams and applying generative AI to enhance capabilities across divisions, aiming for accelerated growth [6][10] - The strategic growth themes include private markets and generative AI, with more details expected at the upcoming Investor Day [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has noted reasonable stability in customer behavior and robust pipelines across divisions, indicating a positive outlook despite macro volatility [12][13] - The company is committed to a disciplined approach to capital allocation, maintaining an 85% guideline for capital return to shareholders [72][73] Other Important Information - The mobility business is viewed as better suited to operate as a standalone entity, with limited synergies expected post-spin [18][20] - The integration of generative AI is seen as a significant opportunity for operational efficiency and margin improvement across the organization [61][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the vision for S&P Global over the next three to five years? - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive market coverage and capabilities in benchmarks, analytics, and data to deliver value and accelerate growth [9][10] Question: Are there any areas of the business experiencing revenue pressures? - Most revenues are recurring and stable, with no major changes in customer behavior observed so far [12][13] Question: What is the rationale behind the mobility spin-off? - The mobility division serves a distinct customer base and is expected to perform better as an independent entity, allowing for greater focus and growth opportunities [17][20] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of AI on its market intelligence platform? - The company is integrating generative AI across the organization, focusing on enhancing capabilities and operational efficiencies [46][55] Question: What are the expectations for margin improvement in the market intelligence business? - The company anticipates margin improvements driven by generative AI integration and disciplined execution [63][64]

Market Overview - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.83%, closing with a total market turnover of 1.2143 trillion yuan [1] Gold Market Analysis - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) closed up by 4.15%, driven by renewed risk aversion due to geopolitical news [2][4] - Following a period of easing risk sentiment, gold prices rebounded as global uncertainties increased, with gold prices recovering from a 12.66% drop between April 22 and May 15 [5] - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's to Aa1 has raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell below 100 [5] - Gold prices surged past $3,300 per ounce, while international oil prices increased by 3.5% [5] Future Outlook for Gold - The long-term fundamentals for gold remain solid, suggesting opportunities for gradual accumulation of gold-related ETFs during price dips [6][8] - The ongoing "stagflation" risk in the U.S. is expected to maintain investor demand for gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [7][8] - The trend of global "de-dollarization" is likely to position gold as a new pricing anchor, with central banks, including China's, continuing to increase their gold reserves [8] Investment Opportunities - The valuation of gold stocks is currently at a historically low level, presenting potential investment opportunities through gold stock ETFs [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market reactions following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, highlighting the implications for U.S. stocks, bonds, and trade policies [2][4][6]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices opened sharply lower, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 initially dropping over 1%, and later narrowing losses to 0.73% and 0.55% respectively [4]. - The U.S. bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [4][6]. - The dollar index fell by 0.63%, indicating a decline in the dollar's value [2]. Moody's Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the expanding federal budget deficit and the increasing reliance on refinancing in a high-interest-rate environment as primary reasons [4][6]. - Analysts warn that rising bond yields and a declining dollar could trigger another wave of stock market sell-offs, especially if President Trump loses control over the long-term bond market [2][4]. Trade Policy Concerns - U.S. Treasury Secretary warned of a return to high tariffs if countries do not negotiate in good faith, indicating a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations [8][10]. - Ongoing trade talks with major allies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly stalled, with significant disagreements remaining, particularly in the automotive sector [8][9]. Economic Implications - Analysts express concerns that rising long-term bond yields will increase the government's net interest costs and deficits, potentially undermining the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations could lead to structural price increases globally, as other countries may retaliate with their own tariffs [10].

Group 1 - CATL's Hong Kong IPO subscription funds exceeded 280 billion HKD, with an issue price set at 263 HKD, reflecting a 6.5% discount compared to the A-share closing price of 259 RMB [1] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, which will increase the cost of future US debt issuance [3] - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by 18.9 billion USD, now ranking third behind Japan and the UK [3] Group 2 - Nvidia plans to adjust its chip exports to China, ceasing the release of the Hopper series after the H20 chip, which may positively impact the domestic chip sector [3] - The Israeli military discovered Hamas's strategic motives behind initiating attacks, aimed at disrupting Israel's potential diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia [4] - Guinea's government revoked over 100 mining licenses, impacting the aluminum market and reflecting a nationalist sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over rising government debt and interest payments, and the inability of multiple administrations to agree on measures to reduce fiscal deficits and spending [1][5][6] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade by Moody's means that all three major rating agencies (Moody's, Fitch, and S&P Global) have now rated the U.S. below AAA [5] - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, fell by 0.4% in after-hours trading, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose from 4.44% to above 4.48% [1] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - Moody's expressed a pessimistic view on the prospects for reducing deficits and spending, citing a continuous rise in the ratio of government debt to interest payments over the past decade [6][7] - The agency projects that by 2035, mandatory spending, including interest payments, will account for 78% of total government spending, up from 73% in 2024 [7] - The federal fiscal deficit is expected to grow from 6.4% of GDP in 2024 to nearly 9% by 2035, driven by rising interest payments and slow revenue growth [7][8] Group 3: Economic Factors - Despite the downgrade, Moody's noted that the U.S. retains significant credit advantages, including a large and resilient economy and the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [9][10] - The agency anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to have strong growth potential and innovation capabilities, which will support productivity and GDP growth in the long term [10]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its global economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points, predicting that global growth will fall below 2% this year, marking the weakest growth rate since 2009 when excluding pandemic effects [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to slow down to a year-on-year growth rate of below 0.5% by the fourth quarter of this year, described as crawling speed rather than recession [1] - The potential for the U.S. economy to slip into recession is heightened due to weak growth, which could be exacerbated by additional negative shocks [1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are anticipated to further restrict the supply of goods in the U.S., with a significant rise in core consumer prices expected over the next 12 months [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, combined with inflation and rising inflation expectations, diminishes the likelihood of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the short term [1] Trade Balance Perspectives - The insistence of the Trump administration on achieving trade balance with various countries is viewed as "very strange" and impractical, as trade surpluses will persist regardless of U.S. policies [1] - China is perceived to have sufficient resilience to cope with Trump's tariff policies, maintaining substantial export volumes to Europe, the U.S., and other emerging markets [1] - Compared to countries like Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam, China's exposure to U.S. tariff risks is considered relatively low [1]