自4月初特朗普政府正式启动对等关税政策以来，全球贸易格局与美国国内经济生态正经历着深刻变革。这项针对绝大多数进口商品的关税政策已落地实施 快三个月了，除了刚开始导致美国资本市场动荡外给美国带来了什么？我们从财政和物价两个维度分析一下。 从财政收入维度审视，关税新政展现出立竿见影的增收效果。 美国财政部最新数据显示，政策落地首月即创下关税及特定消费税174.3亿美元的征收纪录；5月的关税收入数据更是达到了240亿美元，同比激增270%；截 至6月26日的6月关税及特定消费税已累计征收272.6亿美元，月末有望突破280亿美元关口。 这种三级跳式的增长曲线，印证了10%税率设定的精妙之处：既避免高关税引发的贸易萎缩风险，又通过适度加码形成可观税基。相较于动辄20%以上的激 进税率方案，当前政策在保障进口商品流通性的同时，成功将关税总额推升至历史高位，展现出美国关税团队对弹性税率的精准把控。 | Deposits | Today | This month | Fiscal year | Withdrawals | Today | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

(三)更换评级机构后级别上调率环比微降 一季度，共有114家发行人变更评级机构，同比减少22家，环比减少60家。其中8家发行人的新承做评级 机构所给级别高于原级别，上调率7.02%，同比增加4.06个百分点，环比减少0.41个百分点。其中标普 (中国)上调4家，占其承做更换评级机构发行人家数的100%；安融评级、安泰评级、普策信评和上海新 世纪各上调1家，分别占其承做更换评级机构发行人家数的9.09%、100%、100%和16.67%。 (四)同一发行人级别不一致率环比基本持平 (二)评级调整家数环比下降，正负面调整各半 一季度，评级机构共对15家发行人进行了19次评级调整(附件1)，环比下降36%。正面调整8家，均为级 别上调1个子级，中诚信国际上调家数最多，为4家，大公国际、联合资信、上海新世纪、中证鹏元各1 家。 负面调整7家。分机构看，中证鹏元下调家数最多，级别下调4家，展望下调1家；中诚信国际、联合资 信的级别下调分别有2家、1家；从幅度来看，中证鹏元在季度内分三次对1家发行人累计下调6个子级， 联合资信在季度内分两次对1家发行人累计下调4个子级，其余均为下调1-2个子级(附件2)。另外，联合 资信 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has experienced a stable revenue environment, with most revenues being recurring and insulated from short-term volatility [12][13] - The guidance for the ratings business reflects expected ups and downs due to market volatility, with a flat year-over-year build in issuance anticipated [23][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mobility division is being spun off, which had shown 8.4% growth last year with a 39% margin, indicating strong performance [15][17] - Private credit revenues have grown strongly, with a reported 21% growth in enterprise private markets revenues in the current year [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global debt markets are experiencing volatility, but the company has a solid foundation for understanding investor behavior, which informs their guidance [22][23] - The company anticipates a flat M&A environment, with pent-up demand expected to manifest in future years [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on integrating data teams and applying generative AI to enhance capabilities across divisions, aiming for accelerated growth [6][10] - The strategic growth themes include private markets and generative AI, with more details expected at the upcoming Investor Day [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has noted reasonable stability in customer behavior and robust pipelines across divisions, indicating a positive outlook despite macro volatility [12][13] - The company is committed to a disciplined approach to capital allocation, maintaining an 85% guideline for capital return to shareholders [72][73] Other Important Information - The mobility business is viewed as better suited to operate as a standalone entity, with limited synergies expected post-spin [18][20] - The integration of generative AI is seen as a significant opportunity for operational efficiency and margin improvement across the organization [61][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the vision for S&P Global over the next three to five years? - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive market coverage and capabilities in benchmarks, analytics, and data to deliver value and accelerate growth [9][10] Question: Are there any areas of the business experiencing revenue pressures? - Most revenues are recurring and stable, with no major changes in customer behavior observed so far [12][13] Question: What is the rationale behind the mobility spin-off? - The mobility division serves a distinct customer base and is expected to perform better as an independent entity, allowing for greater focus and growth opportunities [17][20] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of AI on its market intelligence platform? - The company is integrating generative AI across the organization, focusing on enhancing capabilities and operational efficiencies [46][55] Question: What are the expectations for margin improvement in the market intelligence business? - The company anticipates margin improvements driven by generative AI integration and disciplined execution [63][64]

Market Overview - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.83%, closing with a total market turnover of 1.2143 trillion yuan [1] Gold Market Analysis - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) closed up by 4.15%, driven by renewed risk aversion due to geopolitical news [2][4] - Following a period of easing risk sentiment, gold prices rebounded as global uncertainties increased, with gold prices recovering from a 12.66% drop between April 22 and May 15 [5] - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's to Aa1 has raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell below 100 [5] - Gold prices surged past $3,300 per ounce, while international oil prices increased by 3.5% [5] Future Outlook for Gold - The long-term fundamentals for gold remain solid, suggesting opportunities for gradual accumulation of gold-related ETFs during price dips [6][8] - The ongoing "stagflation" risk in the U.S. is expected to maintain investor demand for gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [7][8] - The trend of global "de-dollarization" is likely to position gold as a new pricing anchor, with central banks, including China's, continuing to increase their gold reserves [8] Investment Opportunities - The valuation of gold stocks is currently at a historically low level, presenting potential investment opportunities through gold stock ETFs [9]

一则利空消息引发猛烈抛售。 受穆迪下调美国信用评级影响，今晚，美股三大指数集体大幅低开，纳指、标普500指数一度跌超1%。美债市 场亦遭遇猛烈抛售，美国30年期国债收益率突破5%，为2023年11月以来的最高水平。另外，美元指数持续走 低，现跌0.63%。 有分析称，穆迪此次降级"具有象征意义"，若出现"美债收益率上升，美元下跌"的情况，特别是在美国总统特 朗普可能失去长端债券市场控制的情况下，可能导致下一轮美国股市抛售。 另外，美国关税政策也传来危险警告。美东时间5月18日，美国财政部长贝森特发出严厉警告，如果部分国家 不"本着诚意谈判"，美国将恢复特朗普4月2日宣布的最高关税水平。这可能标志着，美国在贸易谈判中正采取 更为咄咄逼人的立场，这再度给市场增添了不确定性。 开盘大跌 北京时间5月19日晚间，美股三大指数集体大幅低开，纳指、标普500指数均一度跌超1%，随后跌幅有所收 窄，截至21:50，道指跌0.2%，纳指跌0.73%，标普500指数跌0.55%，罗素2000指数跌1.2%。 美股大型科技股普跌，特斯拉大跌近4%，苹果跌超3%，谷歌、英伟达、博通、AMD、台积电ADR、Meta均 小幅下跌。 消 ...

涨跌停制度虽然限制了日内波动的幅度，但从中线上来看是放大了市场情绪的杠杆。 这个周末发生的大事不多，我挑几个给读者们捋一捋。 1、宁德时代这次港股的IPO认购资金超过2800亿港币，今年仅次于蜜雪和布鲁可。最终确定发行价为 263港币，按照最新的汇率是242人民币，考虑到周五a股收盘价是259元，6.5%的折率。我之前就说过 这次打新很鸡肋，因为有a股价格锚定，所以没什么想象空间，折价让的也不多，其实像这种IPO适合 那些打算大仓位配置宁德时代的外资机构参与，散户去连个群演的人头费都挣不到。 2、俄乌在土耳其谈崩了，昨天写过这事了，俄罗斯要乌克兰承认克里米亚和乌东四州既成事实，乌克 兰要俄罗斯全部撤退再谈，注意，这里的撤退包括2014年就已经占领的克里米亚。考虑到目前的战场还 是俄军微微占优，所以给人感觉就是乌克兰打心底里就没想谈。 我觉得谈判是基于战场形势做合理的延伸，而不是打不赢的靠嘴要，如果泽连斯基觉得自己的军队可以 光复乌东四州+克里米亚，那就继续打，狠狠的打。 双方这次会谈唯一的共识就是决定互换1000名战俘。这次谈崩对军事和政治格局都没有影响，甚至对黄 金价格也不会有什么刺激，因为市场从一开始就没 ...

由于美国政府债务不断增加，穆迪评级公司（Moody's Ratings）周五盘后下调了美国的信用评级，从最高级别Aaa下调至Aa1，并将 评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。这一具有标志性的决定令外界对美国作为全球最优质主权借款国的地位产生疑问。 受此消息影响，纳指和标普500 ETF美股盘后下跌0.4%，美国10年期国债收益率短线从4.44%拉升至4.48%上方，整体涨幅扩大至5个 基点。两年期美债收益率涨4.5个基点，刷新日高至4.0037%。ICE美元指数短线下挫大约15点。 此前，惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）和标普全球评级（S&P Global Ratings）已将美国评级调至AAA以下，穆迪的这一决定这意味着全球 最大经济体已被三大评级机构全部降级。值得注意的是，此前标普全球和惠誉下调美国信用评级时，美股无一例外都是大跌了一波。 媒体报道，此次美国信用评级下调为一级，并非突然之举。早在一年多前，穆迪就已将美国信用评级展望调整为"负面"。此次评级下 调后，穆迪将展望调整为"稳定"。 对削减赤字和支出前景持悲观态度 穆迪指出，此次下调反映出美国政府债务与利息支付比例在过去十多年中持续攀升，现已远 ...

来源：@第一财经日报微博 【专访惠誉首席经济学家：#专家称美经济增速放缓至爬行速度#，#专家称美联储年中降息概率不大#】 受全球贸易前景不确定性的影响，惠誉评级近期大幅下调了世界经济增长预测0.4个百分点，预计今年 世界经济增长将跌破2%。若不计疫情影响，这将是2009年以来最弱的全球增长率。惠誉评级首席经济 学家布莱恩·库尔顿（Brian Coulton）在接受第一财经记者专访时表示，预计到今年第四季度，美国经济 同比增幅将放缓至0.5%以下。"虽然不是经济衰退，但也放缓至爬行速度。当增长如此疲软时，无须太 多额外的负面冲击就会将美国推入衰退区域。"库尔顿补充道。库尔顿认为，短期内，关税将导致美国 的商品供应受到更多限制，并预测未来12个月核心消费品价格将显著上涨。与此同时，关税不确定性叠 加通胀、通胀预期飙升，"短期内伴随美国经济前景恶化，美联储紧急降息的可能性很小。"同时，他还 对特朗普政府寻求对各国实现贸易平衡的执念感到"非常奇怪"，并认为这在实际操作中无法实现，"若 耐克工厂继续在越南生产运动鞋，越南将继续对美国保持贸易盈余，事实就是如此。"库尔顿认为，中 国经济有足够的勇气来应对特朗普的关税政策， ...