A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Moody's (MCO) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moody's due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Moody's Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Moody's Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating significant operating leverage [6] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ratings business (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [7] - Transaction revenue in MIS rose 14%, with recurring revenue increasing by 8% year-over-year [20] - Moody's Analytics (MA) experienced a 9% revenue growth, with ARR reaching nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% compared to last year [12][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with demand for debt financing strong in private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, and infrastructure development [8][9] - Refunding needs over the next four years are projected to exceed $5 trillion, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities in the U.S. increased by over 20%, while EMEA spec-grade bonds and loans rose by approximately 20% [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, including acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [18] - Partnerships, such as with Salesforce, are crucial for embedding data into partner ecosystems, enhancing customer integration and retention [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [58] - The company anticipates continued growth in private credit and a robust M&A environment, with expectations for M&A issuance to increase by 15% to 20% for the full year 2025 [25][58] - Risks remain, including ongoing tariff negotiations and potential impacts from a prolonged government shutdown [26] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][19] - The company is raising its adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, implying roughly 17% growth at the midpoint compared to last year [34] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management indicated that AI is being embedded into various workflow solutions and that they have developed over 50 domain-specific agents leveraging proprietary data [38][40] Question: Impact of third quarter's record issuance - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than in investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [44] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted the unique data sets used in KYC solutions, including Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which provide a comprehensive view of business relationships [47][49] Question: Differences in refi walls portrayal - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities, and emphasized the overall favorable refinancing environment [52][54] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment, citing more tailwinds than headwinds, including tight spreads and a robust M&A pipeline [58][60] Question: Concerns about private credit health - Management acknowledged potential credit stress in the private market but emphasized the importance of independent credit assessments and the flow back into public markets [70]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that the sovereign ratings in the MENA region remain stable due to fiscal resilience and economic reforms [1] - Despite challenges from falling oil prices and regional conflicts, most oil-producing countries have achieved balance through non-oil economic growth [1] - Egypt and Morocco have shown outstanding economic performance [1] - Over the past 12 months, the average rating in the MENA region has been upgraded by +2, marking the longest period of stability since 2015 [1] - Fitch expects that ongoing regional reforms and fiscal discipline will continue to support credit resilience [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will be held from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, focusing on "Collaborating to Address Challenges: Global Action, Innovation, and Sustainable Growth" [1] - The conference is co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization (WGDO) and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government, and aims to explore new paths for sustainable development [1] - Approximately 500 prominent guests, including around 100 international attendees such as political figures, Nobel laureates, and leaders from Fortune 500 companies, will participate in discussions on nearly 50 topics related to energy, green finance, sustainable consumption, and technology [1] Group 2 - Liu Jingyun, CEO of United Equator Environmental Assessment Co., participated in a dialogue on the implementation and application of ESG evaluation standards [2] - Liu emphasized that the length of ESG disclosure reports does not determine ratings, highlighting a misalignment between what companies focus on and what rating agencies prioritize [4] - Companies should focus on their actual ESG performance rather than just report writing, and they need to make substantial progress in quantifiable goals and strategic planning to improve ratings [4] - Liu suggested that companies should also pay attention to industry-specific indicators and stakeholder concerns to achieve meaningful advancements in ESG ratings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has reached historical highs despite the government shutdown, indicating a disconnect between market performance and political events [1][3]. Market Reaction - The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have both hit record highs, with the S&P 500 stabilizing above 6700 points for the first time [1]. - The market's resilience is attributed to expectations that the government shutdown will be short-lived, as historical precedents suggest that prolonged shutdowns can negatively impact the economy and credit ratings [3]. Employment Data - The ADP report indicates a decline in private employment by 32,000 jobs in September, suggesting a softening labor market [3]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as the government shutdown will delay its release, impacting Federal Reserve decision-making [3]. Inflation and Valuation Concerns - Inflation remains a concern, and stock valuations are at high levels, raising questions about future Federal Reserve policy adjustments in the absence of key economic data [3][4]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends rather than short-term market fluctuations or political events, as the current market highs are driven by expectations of a quick resolution to the shutdown and stable Federal Reserve policies [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in gold and silver futures prices due to a weaker dollar and stronger oil prices, alongside positive trade negotiation news between China and Spain [1][2] - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $33.1 to $3719.5 per ounce, marking a 0.90% increase [1] - Silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.36 to $43.190 per ounce, reflecting a 0.84% rise [2] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's government credit rating from AA- to A+ due to rising public debt and political instability, warning that preparations for the 2027 presidential election will further limit fiscal consolidation [1] - The global market is anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which starts on September 16 and concludes on September 17, with expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut [1] - Some fund managers believe that the Federal Reserve's actions may be more aggressive than market expectations, with a potential unexpected 50 basis point cut accelerating gold price increases [1]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance in the short term, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another potential cut in December, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook [5][16]. - Powell's assessment of the labor market has shifted to focus on downside risks, suggesting that the labor market is cooling and that there is an increasing risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [12][13]. - The report highlights that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on inflation, with Powell indicating that the effects will be temporary and not likely to create a wage-price spiral [12][14]. Group 2: Key Economic Data - In the U.S., new housing starts exceeded expectations at 1.428 million units, while existing home sales showed a slight increase to 4.01 million units, with a median home price of $422,400 [20][22]. - The report notes that the UK is experiencing increased inflationary pressures, with July CPI rising to 3.8% year-on-year, driven by food and service costs [26][27]. - Germany's GDP was revised down to a seasonally adjusted -0.3% for Q2, indicating economic contraction, while the Eurozone's construction output fell by 0.8% [28][29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The market has shown a rebound following Powell's dovish comments, with a resurgence of easing trades observed around the Jackson Hole meeting [11][17]. - The report outlines various trading patterns, indicating that easing (rate cuts) typically leads to increases in stock and bond markets, while tightening (rate hikes) results in declines [18]. - The report also notes a mixed performance in the manufacturing sector, with the U.S. PMI data exceeding expectations, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery [20][28].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoint The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with support at 78,000 [49]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary The short - term copper price will maintain a volatile trend, and the lower support level is 78,000 [49]. 02 Multi - empty Focus - **Positive Factors** - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience, which reduced the market's bet on consecutive Fed rate cuts. The new home starts in the US in July increased significantly, and the S&P confirmed the US sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [9][11]. - China's domestic policies for stable growth are continuously being implemented, including measures to boost investment, promote consumption, and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15]. - China's demand for copper is strong. The import volume of scrap copper in July increased more than expected due to strong domestic demand from both the recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors. The power sector has high - speed growth, and the automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity, which will drive copper consumption [25][31][38]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the domestic TC quotation at a historical low, which is a strong support factor for the fundamentals [19][20]. - **Negative Factors** - The real - estate market's demand for copper is still weak. The real - estate development data from January to July shows a decline in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area, and the housing prices in different - tier cities also show a downward or narrowing - decline trend [35][37]. - The production of household appliances such as refrigerators and air - conditioners has adjusted. The production of refrigerators in July decreased month - on - month, and the production of air - conditioners in July dropped sharply month - on - month due to the end of promotion activities and inventory pressure [41][42]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply Side** - In July, China's copper ore imports increased. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded [16][17]. - The production of refined copper in July decreased slightly. Affected by the shortage of cold - material supply, some smelters reduced production. The import volume of refined copper in July was 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05% [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - The import volume of scrap copper in July was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%. The demand from domestic recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors is strong [25][26]. - The power sector has high - speed growth. The national grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, and the power grid investment from January to June increased by 14.6% year - on - year [31][33]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. The production of new - energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The total automobile sales are expected to increase in 2025, which will drive copper consumption [38][40]. - **Inventory and Price** - The inventory of copper exchanges has increased, while the domestic social inventory has decreased. As of August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14,500 tons compared with August 18 [44][45]. - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has also decreased. On August 21, the premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot was about 115 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was about - 81.01 US dollars/ton [47]. 04后市研判 The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with the lower support at 78,000 [49].

Group 1 - Moody's upgraded Pakistan's local and foreign currency issuer ratings and senior unsecured debt rating from Caa2 to Caa1, changing the outlook from "positive" to "stable" [9] - The IMF delegation is expected to visit Pakistan at the end of September for an economic review, with the anticipation of receiving a third loan tranche of $1 billion after the review [9] - As of August 8, the State Bank of Pakistan reported an increase of $11 million in foreign exchange reserves, reaching $14.2432 billion, while commercial banks' net foreign exchange reserves decreased by $10 million to $5.2535 billion [9] Group 2 - The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.31% increase in short-term inflation week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.21%, with 17 out of 51 surveyed items experiencing price increases [9] - The Pakistan Securities and Exchange Commission announced the final revision of the public offering system, effective from August 6, 2025, aimed at enhancing IPO efficiency through competition, technology, and transparent pricing mechanisms [10] - The latest report from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicated a 0.74% contraction in the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector for the fiscal year 2024-2025, despite a 4.14% year-on-year growth in June, with significant declines in sectors such as tobacco, textiles, and automotive [11]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has confirmed Saudi Arabia's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at A+ with a stable outlook, highlighting the country's strong fiscal position and ongoing reform process [1] Financial Stability - The credit rating reflects the robustness of Saudi Arabia's financial fundamentals, with key indicators such as sovereign net foreign assets and debt-to-GDP ratio significantly outperforming the average levels of "A" and even "AA" rated countries [1] - Saudi Arabia possesses substantial financial reserves, including public sector deposits and other assets, which provide strong support for macroeconomic stability [1] Future Projections - Fitch anticipates that by 2027, Saudi Arabia's sovereign net foreign assets will reach 35.3% of GDP, a level that is considerably higher than the average of 3.1% for "A" rated countries [1]