Ares Capital (NasdaqGS:ARCC) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsBrian McKenna - Director of Equity ResearchJana Markowicz - COOJim Miller - PresidentJohn Stilmar - Partner and Co-Head of the Ares Public Markets Investor RelationsKort Schnabel - CEOScott Lem - CFOConference Call ParticipantsArren Cyganovich - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystCasey Alexander - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystDerek Hewitt - AnalystDoug Harter - Director and Sen ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Horace Mann reported record 2025 full-year core earnings per share of $4.71, a 39% increase over the prior year, with a shareholder return on equity of 12.4% [4][15] - Total revenues increased by 7% year-over-year, with net premiums and contract deposits earned also up more than 7% [4][15] - Core earnings for 2025 were $196 million, reflecting strong underlying profitability across the business [15][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Property and Casualty (P&C), core earnings were $112 million, more than double the prior year, with a reported combined ratio of 89.7, improving over 8 points year-over-year [19] - Auto net written premiums increased to $502 million, with a combined ratio of 96.5, improving nearly 2 points [19] - Life and retirement segment saw core earnings increase by 13% to $61 million, with net premiums written and contract deposits growing to $612 million, up 7% year-over-year [21] - Individual supplemental sales increased nearly 40% year-over-year, while group benefits recorded a 33% increase [6][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unaided brand awareness reached 35% in 2025, up from less than 10% a year ago, indicating significant growth in market recognition [7] - New business customer interactions increased by 37% in the fourth quarter, reflecting improved marketing effectiveness [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 10% average compound annual growth rate in core EPS and a sustainable 12%-13% shareholder return on equity over the next three years [11][26] - Investments in marketing, infrastructure improvements, and product expansion are prioritized to support sustained profitable growth [12][14] - The introduction of the Horace Mann Club aims to enhance engagement with educators and provide financial wellness tools [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2025 benefited from unusually light severe weather activity, with pre-tax catastrophe losses of $62 million contributing positively to core earnings [5] - The company expects a normalized core earnings per share guidance range of $4.20-$4.50 for 2026, reflecting a nearly 10% increase [11][17] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term financial targets despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties [26] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $21 million of shares in 2025, the highest annual level since 2022, with an additional $50 million authorization in May [14][25] - The early retirement offering was taken up by about 8% of eligible employees, aimed at aligning the workforce with future needs [56][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution initiatives and policy count growth outlook - Management indicated strong sales momentum driven by distribution efforts, with brand awareness and website traffic significantly increasing [30][31] Question: EPS outlook for 2026 and growth acceleration - Management confirmed expectations for a 10% annual earnings per share growth rate, with anticipated accelerating top-line growth due to investments made [33][34] Question: Catastrophe loss assumptions and reinsurance program - Management clarified that the catastrophe loss guidance for 2026 is based on a consistent approach, not influenced by one year's results [36][37] Question: Early retirement offering participation - Approximately 8% of eligible employees participated in the early retirement offering, aimed at workforce planning [56][59] Question: Investment in supplemental and group segment - Management expressed satisfaction with progress in individual supplemental and group benefits, with strong sales and distribution efforts [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.1 billion, an increase of just over 4.5% year-over-year on a reported basis and just over 3% on a core basis [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $358 million, up about 8% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding approximately 100 basis points to nearly 32% [14] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.90, marking a 13% increase year-over-year, contributing to a full-year adjusted EPS of $2.71, which represented year-over-year growth of just over 12% [15][7] - The company generated about $315 million of free cash flow in Q4 and approximately $930 million for the full year, with free cash flow conversion on adjusted net income remaining nicely over 100% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) segment revenue grew just over 5% on a reported basis, with core revenue growth of about 4%, driven by strong performance in professional instrumentation and gas detection products [16] - Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment revenue grew approximately 3% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA in this segment at $92 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26% [19] - Recurring revenue grew faster than consolidated revenue, driven by strength in Fluke's maintenance software and AI-enhanced software capabilities across IOS and AHS segments [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America continued to be the strongest growth driver, with solid growth across all regions, including steady growth in APAC and an acceleration in Europe [13] - Latin American sales picked up pace, driven by strong performance in professional instrumentation [14] - The company noted early signs of improvement in Europe and positive trends in Latin America and Asia Pacific [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three strategic pillars: accelerating profitable organic growth, disciplined capital allocation, and building investor trust, aiming for benchmark-beating shareholder returns [5][8] - The company is committed to investing in organic growth, pursuing bolt-on M&A, and maintaining a modestly growing dividend [11] - The Fortive Accelerated Strategy is being diligently executed, with a focus on innovation and targeted investments in high-growth verticals [9][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, initiating full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.90-$3.00, representing approximately 9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [21] - The company is confident in its ability to execute its strategy and deliver strong performance for shareholders, despite recognizing that there is more work to be done [25][24] - Management highlighted the importance of customer engagement and the positive impact of strategic investments on future growth [24][19] Other Important Information - The company executed an additional $265 million of share repurchases in Q4, bringing total second-half repurchases to $1.3 billion [8] - The balance sheet remains strong, finishing the year at 2.6x gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, with ample capacity for capital deployment priorities in 2026 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Fluke's performance and demand - Management noted strong demand in Fluke, with North America as the strongest region and encouraging improvements in EMEA and LATAM, with order growth continuing in Q4 [32][34] Question: Price contribution and guidance - Price contributed about 2% to growth in Q4, with volume contributing about 1%, and expectations for 2026 are broadly in line with this [35][36] Question: First quarter expectations and organic sales growth - Management indicated that Q1 is expected to follow historical patterns, with organic sales growth anticipated in the 2%-3% range for the full year [41][42] Question: AHS segment margin pressures - Management clarified that margin pressures in AHS were localized in Q4 due to strategic investments, with expectations for margin improvement moving forward [44][45] Question: IOS organic growth sources - The strong performance in IOS was attributed to effective execution of the Fortive Business System strategy, with solid demand in data center applications and defense [72][73] Question: AI enhancements in software businesses - Management highlighted that AI is seen as an opportunity, with strong customer demand for AI-enabled enhancements driving growth and improving customer experience [53][54] Question: Future growth expectations for gas detection - Management expressed confidence in the gas detection business, anticipating strong performance in 2026 due to effective execution and targeted investments [95][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Horace Mann reported record full-year core earnings per share of $4.71, a 39% increase over the prior year, with a shareholder return on equity of 12.4% [4][16] - Total revenues increased by 7% year-over-year, with net premiums and contract deposits earned also up more than 7% [4][16] - Core earnings for 2025 were $196 million, reflecting strong underlying profitability across the business [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Property and Casualty (P&C), core earnings were $112 million, more than double the prior year, with net written premiums increasing by 7% to $830 million [20] - The reported combined ratio for P&C improved to 89.7, an improvement of over 8 points year-over-year [20] - Life and retirement segment saw core earnings increase by 13% to $61 million, with net premiums written and contract deposits growing to $612 million, up 7% year-over-year [22] - Individual supplemental sales increased by nearly 40% year-over-year, while group benefits recorded a 33% increase [6][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unaided brand awareness reached 35% in 2025, up from less than 10% a year ago, indicating significant growth in market recognition [8] - New business customer interactions increased by 37% in the fourth quarter, reflecting enhanced marketing and distribution efforts [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 10% average compound annual growth rate in core EPS and a sustainable 12%-13% shareholder return on equity over the next three years [12][28] - Investments in marketing, infrastructure improvements, and product expansion are prioritized to support long-term growth [12][13] - The introduction of the Horace Mann Club aims to provide educators with financial wellness tools and resources, enhancing community engagement [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2025 benefited from unusually light severe weather activity, with pre-tax catastrophe losses of $62 million contributing positively to core earnings [5] - The company expects a normalized core earnings per share guidance range of $4.20-$4.50 for 2026, reflecting a nearly 10% increase [12][18] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term financial targets while navigating a competitive environment [28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $21 million of shares in 2025, the highest annual level since 2022, with an additional $50 million authorization in May [14][27] - The early retirement offering was taken up by about 8% of eligible employees, aimed at aligning the workforce with future needs [58][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution initiatives and policy count growth outlook - Management highlighted strong sales momentum driven by distribution efforts, with brand awareness and website traffic significantly increasing [31][32] Question: EPS outlook for 2026 and growth acceleration - Management confirmed expectations for a 10% annual earnings per share growth rate, with accelerating top-line growth anticipated as investments yield results [34][36] Question: Catastrophe loss assumptions and reinsurance program - Management clarified that the $90 million catastrophe loss assumption for 2026 is based on consistent year-over-year approaches and does not include prior year development in planning [39][40] Question: Increase in educator household access - Management noted a significant increase in accessible educator households due to strategic marketing and partnerships, contributing to overall growth [44][51] Question: Long-term target for net interest spread in retirement - Management reaffirmed a target of a 200 basis point spread for fixed annuities, although 2025 performance was impacted by underperformance in commercial mortgage loans [52] Question: Early retirement offering participation - Management reported a satisfactory participation rate in the early retirement offering, aimed at workforce planning and future skill alignment [58][61] Question: Investment in supplemental and group segment - Management expressed confidence in the growth and earnings diversification from individual supplemental and group benefits, with favorable benefit ratios expected to normalize [71][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, reported earnings were $2.9 billion or $7.17 per share, while adjusted earnings were $1 billion or $2.47 per share, reflecting a flat performance compared to the previous quarter [10][11] - Capital spending for the quarter was $682 million, with operating cash flow generated at $2.8 billion, including a $708 million working capital benefit due to inventory reduction [12][13] - Net debt to capital ratio stood at 38%, with $756 million returned to shareholders, including $274 million in share repurchases [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company adjusted earnings were flat at $1 billion, with sequential improvements in Refining, Renewable Fuels, and Midstream, offset by decreases in Chemicals and Marketing and Specialties [11][12] - Midstream adjusted EBITDA increased by 40% since 2022, reaching approximately $1 billion in Q4 2025, driven by higher volumes despite lower margins [6][11] - Refining results benefited from the acquisition of WRB, with higher realized margins in the Gulf Coast, while Marketing and Specialties results decreased due to the sale of a 65% interest in the Germany and Austria retail marketing business [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased its exposure to Canadian heavy crude differentials by 40% following the acquisition of WRB, with differentials widening by approximately $4 a barrel since the acquisition announcement [4][5] - The worldwide crude utilization rate is expected to be in the low 90s for Q1 2026, with turnaround expenses projected between $170 million and $190 million [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safe, reliable operations, continuous improvement, and disciplined capital allocation to maximize shareholder returns [3][17] - Strategic actions in 2025 included acquiring the remaining 50% interest in the WRB joint venture and idling the Los Angeles refinery, which is expected to positively influence costs [4][15] - The company aims to achieve an adjusted controllable cost per barrel of approximately $5.50 by the end of 2027, with ongoing initiatives to reduce costs and improve reliability [4][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the refining sector, anticipating that demand will continue to grow in 2026, with challenges in meeting that demand due to low refinery additions [79] - The company highlighted a positive inflection point in results for 2025, with expectations for continued improvement and momentum in 2026 [17][81] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining investor trust and delivering consistent results in a competitive environment [17] Other Important Information - The company plans to add a gas plant approximately every 12-18 months, with the Iron Mesa gas plant expected to be operational in early 2027 [8] - The Western Gateway project is in the scoping and design phase, with positive feedback from prospective customers and regulatory support [61][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Mid-Continent products and feedstock opportunities post-WRB acquisition - Management noted strong integration between refining, midstream, and marketing assets, with a robust demand profile expected in PADD 2, benefiting from widening heavy dips [20] Question: 2026 priorities on cost outlook - Management indicated a target of $5.50 per barrel for controllable refining costs, with continuous improvement initiatives expected to drive down costs further [26] Question: Turnaround management and utilization rates - Management confirmed a relatively light turnaround cycle for 2026, with costs slightly increasing due to the inclusion of WRB assets, but overall guidance remains stable [32] Question: Midstream growth outlook and potential for stock buybacks - Management outlined a framework for returning over 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders, with expectations for significant debt reduction and share buybacks [36] Question: Refining macro outlook for 2026 - Management expressed bullish sentiment for refining margins in 2026, citing expected demand growth and low unplanned turnarounds [79][81] Question: Likelihood of increased ethane rejection in the Permian - Management does not foresee a material change in ethane rejection due to new gas pipelines, expecting continued balance in supply and demand [85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, consolidated revenue was $321 million, with adjusted gross margin at -1.1% and adjusted operating margin at -13.6% [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA was -$26.2 million, or -8.1% of sales, and adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders was -$37.8 million, or -$0.93 per diluted share [22] - Full-year operating cash generation totaled $12 million, with free cash flow at -$31 million, excluding a $30 million legal settlement [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transportation Solutions generated revenue of $263 million with non-GAAP operating income of -$31.7 million, or -12.1% of sales [22] - Parts and Services generated revenue of $64.5 million and operating income of $5.1 million, or 7.9% of sales, showing year-over-year growth of 33% [22][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The transportation industry faced prolonged softness in demand, with freight, construction, and industrial activity operating below normalized levels [5][10] - Early signs of stabilization in freight volumes and gradual improvement in fleet utilization rates were noted, but these have not yet translated into increased order activity [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on aligning costs with demand, preserving liquidity, and protecting margins while pursuing market share opportunities [6][7] - Actions taken in 2025 are believed to strengthen the company's foundation and improve its ability to perform through the cycle [4] - The company is investing in its parts and service business, which has shown resilience and growth, and is expected to operate in the high teens EBITDA over time [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the demand environment is expected to remain difficult in Q1 2026, with revenue guidance of $310 million to $330 million and adjusted earnings per share between -$0.95 and -$0.05 [11][25] - The first quarter is anticipated to be the weakest of the year in terms of revenue and operating margins, but there is confidence that 2026 will show improvement compared to 2025 [11][25] Other Important Information - The company idled manufacturing facilities in Little Falls and Goshen, resulting in approximately $16 million in non-cash charges during the quarter [8] - The domestic trailer industry has filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions concerning certain imported trailer products, with investigations currently underway [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of idling capacity on refrigerated truck bodies - Management confirmed that they are not exiting the refrigerated market and are repositioning products for future demand [32][33] Question: Continuation of parts and services growth into 2026 - Management expects to see continued growth in the parts and services segment in 2026, with potential margin improvements after Q1 [34][36] Question: Update on imported trailers and potential dumping - Management clarified that Wabash is not negatively impacted by the ongoing investigations and that any penalties would apply to international competitors [60][62] Question: Capital allocation strategy moving forward - The company plans to prioritize paying down debt, maintaining dividends, and funding internal capital expenditures, with a focus on liquidity management [77][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, total revenue reached $1.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of just over 4.5% on a reported basis and over 3% on a core basis [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $358 million, up about 8% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding approximately 100 basis points to nearly 32% [13][14] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.90, marking a 13% increase year-over-year, contributing to a full-year adjusted EPS of $2.71, which represented over 12% growth [14][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Intelligent Operating Solutions (IOS) segment revenue grew just over 5% on a reported basis, with core revenue growth of about 4%, driven by strong performance in professional instrumentation and gas detection [15] - Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment revenue grew approximately 3% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA in this segment at $92 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26% [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America continued to be the strongest growth driver, with encouraging signs of improvement in Europe and Latin America [12][15] - APAC growth remained steady, while Europe showed acceleration from Q3, indicating potential positive trends [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing the Fortive Accelerated Strategy, which includes three pillars: accelerating profitable organic growth, disciplined capital allocation, and building investor trust [4][10] - The company is initiating full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.90-$3.00, representing approximately 9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [6][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, highlighting strong execution and growth acceleration in the second half of 2025 [5][24] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with a focus on organic growth and targeted M&A opportunities [10][24] Other Important Information - The company executed an additional $265 million in share repurchases in Q4, bringing total repurchases for the second half of the year to $1.3 billion [6][18] - Free cash flow for Q4 was approximately $315 million, with full-year free cash flow at about $930 million, maintaining a conversion rate over 100% [14][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Fluke's performance and demand - Management noted strong performance in Fluke, with North America as the strongest region and encouraging improvements in EMEA and LATAM, indicating solid demand overall [30][32] Question: Price contribution and guidance - Price contributed about 2% to growth in the quarter, with volume contributing roughly 1% [34] Question: First quarter expectations and organic sales growth - Management indicated that they expect reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA to follow historical trends, with a positive outlook for January [40][42] Question: AHS segment margin pressures - Management clarified that margin pressures in AHS were localized in Q4 due to strategic investments, with expectations for margin improvement moving forward [43][44] Question: IOS organic growth sources - The strong performance in IOS was attributed to effective execution of the Fortive Business System strategy, with all elements contributing positively [71][72] Question: AI enhancements in software businesses - Management highlighted that AI is seen as a meaningful accelerator for their software offerings, with strong customer demand for AI-enabled enhancements [52][53] Question: Future growth expectations for gas detection - Management expressed confidence in the gas detection business, anticipating strong performance in 2026 due to effective execution and market demand [94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income per share of $0.41 for Q4 2025, down from $0.57 in the prior quarter and $0.55 in Q4 2024. For the full year, GAAP net income per share was $1.86, compared to $2.44 in 2024 [17] - Core earnings per share for Q4 2025 remained stable at $0.50, compared to $0.50 in the prior quarter but down from $0.55 a year ago. For the full year, core earnings per share were $2.01, down from $2.33 in 2024 [17] - The company generated a 10% core return on equity (ROE) for the year, consistent with historical averages [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record gross originations of $15.8 billion in 2025, with Q4 originations exceeding $5.8 billion, a 50% increase from Q4 2024 [26] - New investment commitments accelerated in the second half of 2025, driven by M&A and LBO activities, with about half of new originations supporting M&A-driven transactions [26][27] - The portfolio at fair value increased to $29.5 billion, a 3% increase from the prior quarter and a 10% increase year-over-year [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added over 100 new borrowers in 2025, setting a new record, and ended the year with a diversified portfolio of 603 borrowers [27] - The weighted average organic EBITDA growth rate of portfolio companies was more than three times that of GDP, indicating strong performance relative to the broader economy [10] - Non-accruals at cost remained stable at 1.8%, consistent with prior levels and below historical averages [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized its long-term competitive advantages, including team experience, market relationships, and rigorous credit standards, which are expected to support future performance [5] - The focus on specialized industry verticals, such as software and healthcare, has led to differentiated deal flow and a 50% increase in non-sponsored originations [9] - The company plans to maintain its dividend despite potential declines in short-term interest rates, supported by a strong balance sheet and spillover income [14][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate economic volatility and capitalize on market opportunities, particularly in the software sector [56] - The company is closely monitoring market conditions and believes it is well-positioned to benefit from any dislocations in the capital markets [56] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a diversified capital base to support consistent lending activities [34] Other Important Information - The company reported a total portfolio at fair value of $29.5 billion, with a net asset value of $14.3 billion, or $19.94 per share, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous quarter [19] - The company has a strong liquidity position, totaling over $6 billion, including available cash [23] - The first quarter 2026 dividend is set at $0.48 per share, payable on March 31, 2026 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about AI's impact on software business performance - Management expressed confidence in their software portfolio, emphasizing that they invest in foundational infrastructure software resistant to technology risk, including AI [38][40] Question: Characterization of deal flow and market conditions - Management noted that most deal flow consists of add-on acquisitions for existing portfolio companies, with limited resurgence in dividend transactions [50] Question: Market dislocation and spread widening - Management explained that recent market volatility did not lead to sustained spread widening, attributing this to the quick recovery of the broadly syndicated market [72][74] Question: Share repurchase program - Management confirmed that share repurchases are always considered based on stock trading levels, but no specific plans were disclosed [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG's core net operating earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, with a core operating return on equity of 18.2% [5] - For Q4 2025, core net operating earnings per share were $3.65, resulting in an annualized core return on equity of 25.2% [5] - The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $274 million in regular dividends [6][10] - AFG's leverage ratio is less than 28%, with no debt maturities until 2030 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profits in specialty property and casualty businesses grew 41% in Q4 2025, with a combined ratio of 84.1% [12][14] - Gross written premiums for Q4 2025 were up 2%, while net written premiums were down 1% compared to Q4 2024 [14] - The property and transportation group achieved a combined ratio of 70.6% in Q4 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the prior year [16] - The specialty casualty group reported a combined ratio of 96.7% in Q4 2025, 5.3 points higher than the previous year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was 0.9% for Q4 2025, down from 4.9% in the prior year [8] - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $17.2 billion, with approximately 65% invested in fixed maturities yielding about 5.25% [7][10] - The company expects a growth in net written premiums of 3%-5% for 2026, with a combined ratio target of approximately 92.5% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG aims to maintain a disciplined operating philosophy and capitalize on its diversified portfolio to navigate economic conditions [12][13] - The company is optimistic about several startup businesses and expects to see growth opportunities in 2026 [24] - AFG's strategy includes a focus on capital management, with plans for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases [10][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of reserves and the ability to achieve favorable development in the future [27] - The company is cautious about pockets of softening rates and competitive conditions but remains focused on profitable growth [24] - Management highlighted the potential for improved returns from the alternative investment portfolio as market conditions stabilize [63] Other Important Information - AFG declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026 [9] - The company has returned $4.7 billion in special dividends since 2021 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the 2026 business plan assume in terms of rates? - Management indicated that they expect to continue achieving good price increases where needed, with no specific amount identified for prior development in the combined ratio [27][29] Question: Was there a change in loss picks for the casualty underlying loss ratio? - Management noted continued caution around social inflation-exposed businesses and adjustments in loss picks, particularly in California workers' compensation [30][32] Question: What drove the inflection in pricing in the lender-placed business? - Management expressed no concerns about political risks and noted that pricing can vary based on client property types, with expectations of low single-digit growth in the business [53][56] Question: Are the social inflation-related businesses stabilized? - Management indicated that corrective steps have been taken, and there is potential for mid-single-digit growth in these businesses moving forward [60] Question: What are the expectations for the alternative investment portfolio? - Management expects a return to historical levels of returns on alternatives, contingent on improved market conditions for multifamily properties [63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AFG's Core Net Operating Earnings were $10.29 per share for the full year 2025, with a core operating return on equity of 18.2% [5] - For Q4 2025, Core Net Operating Earnings per share were $3.65, resulting in an annualized core return on equity of 25.2% [5] - The company returned over $700 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $274 million in regular dividends [6][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underwriting profits in specialty property and casualty businesses grew 41% in Q4 2025, with a combined ratio of 84.1%, an improvement of nearly 5 points from the prior year [14] - Gross written premiums for Q4 2025 were up 2%, while net written premiums were down 1% compared to the same period in 2024 [14] - The Property and Transportation Group achieved a 70.6% combined ratio in Q4 2025, an improvement of nearly 19 points from the prior year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized return on alternative investments in the P&C portfolio was 0.9% for Q4 2025, down from 4.9% in the prior year [8] - AFG's investment portfolio totaled $17.2 billion, with approximately 65% invested in fixed maturities yielding about 5.25% [7][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AFG aims for premium growth of 3%-5% in 2026, with a combined ratio target of approximately 92.5% [23] - The company is optimistic about several startup businesses and expects to see growth opportunities in specialty casualty and other lines [24][68] - AFG's strategy includes maintaining a disciplined focus on underwriting profitability while pursuing growth opportunities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of reserves and the ability to navigate competitive conditions while pursuing profitable growth [24] - The company anticipates a stable crop year in 2026, which is expected to positively impact the crop insurance business [47] - Management acknowledged pockets of softening rates but remains focused on disciplined growth strategies [24] Other Important Information - AFG declared a special dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, with an aggregate amount of approximately $125 million [9] - The company has declared $55.50 per share in special dividends since 2021, totaling $4.7 billion [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the 2026 business plan assume in terms of rates relative to the 5% P&C renewal pricing? - Management indicated that they do not specifically identify amounts for prior development in the combined ratio but expect favorable development based on historical trends [27] Question: Was there any change in loss picks for the casualty underlying loss ratio? - Management noted continued caution around social inflation-exposed businesses and adjustments in loss picks, particularly in California workers' compensation [30][32] Question: What drove the inflection in pricing for the lender-placed business? - Management expressed confidence in the profitability of the lender-placed business and noted that pricing can vary based on client property characteristics [53][55] Question: Are the social inflation-related businesses stabilized? - Management indicated that corrective steps have been taken, and there are opportunities for mid-single-digit growth in these businesses [60] Question: What is the outlook for the alternative investment portfolio? - Management expects a return to historical levels of 10% or better, contingent on improvements in the multifamily property market [62][63]