光期研究 2 0 2 6年3月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：国内产区3月或正常开割，需求利好支撑胶价 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国外进入低产季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎开工节后修复 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | 1.2 价格：橡胶主力合约基差 p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅4.86%，NR盘面月涨幅4%，BR盘面月跌幅5.68% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 2025/01 2025/02 2025/03 2025/04 2025/05 2025/06 2025/07 2025/08 ...

7200 ono 500 2000 400 1500 300 AM 1000 200 500 100 0 -100 8/1 7/1 10/1 \ 111 12/1-h 5/1 9/1 -500 -200 -1000 -300 -1500 -400 2023 -2025 -2023 -2024 2024 - 2025 -2026 2026 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 11/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 9/1/V 11/1 V 12/1 10/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 -2021 -2022 2025 =2023 -2024 ·2026 -2021 -2022 ·2026 -2023 2024 2025 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 5/1 10/1 3/1 4/1 8/1 12/1 6/1 AN / ...

2025年度山东省十大科技创新成果日前在山东济南发布。其中，山东道恩高分子材料股份有限公司"高 端轮胎阻隔材料DVA"项目成功入选，成为橡胶新材料领域惟一上榜项目。这一新材料的产业化破局， 关键在于玲珑轮胎与道恩联手攻坚。在将DVA从实验室配方变为量产产品过程中，玲珑以深厚制造经 验，提供了决定性工艺解决方案，成功打破欧美企业在高端轮胎材料领域长期的技术垄断。DVA材料 是一种用于轮胎气密层的新型高性能动态硫化合金材料，该材料的气密性可达传统材料的7~10倍，且 自身重量非常轻，能让轮胎重量大幅度降低，显著降低滚动阻力，对提升车辆节油性能和新能源车续驶 里程具有重要价值，为轮胎行业的绿色化、高性能化发展提供了关键材料支撑。玲珑携手道恩攻克 DVA产业化难题自2008年国际轮胎巨头提出DVA技术以来，它的商业化之路始终布满挑战。DVA材料 表面如塑料般光滑，与轮胎内壁难以实现稳定牢固的贴合，正是这一看似微小的物理特性，在过去多 年，成为制约全球行业将理论优势转化为实际产品的"魔鬼细节"。DVA的攻关不是孤军奋战。它的背后 是一张覆盖材料、装备、工艺与终端应用的紧密协同网络。面对这一全球性技术难题，2020年，道 ...

至收盘时，日经股指上涨323.99点，收于57467.83点；东证股指上涨44.84点，收于3852.09点。 从板块看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，有色金属、矿业、橡胶制品等板块涨幅靠前；航空运输业、纤维制品、纸浆造纸等板块下跌。 编辑：王媛媛 新华财经东京2月19日电（记者李诗萌 刘春燕）日本东京股市两大股指19日延续涨势。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨0.57%，东京证券交易所股票 价格指数上涨1.18%。 受隔夜纽约股市三大股指全面收涨影响，东京股市两大股指19日跳空高开。外汇市场日元对美元汇率一度跌至1美元兑换155.31日元，有力提振丰田等出 口类个股。此外，日本首相高市早苗完成新内阁组建，日本国内政局明朗化也提振了投资者信心，进一步推高大盘。 转自：新华财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a slight decline on February 16, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.24% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 0.82% due to profit-taking and disappointing GDP data [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 135.56 points at 56,806.41 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 31.47 points, closing at 3,787.38 points [1] Influencing Factors - The market opened higher due to a rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average the previous day, with the Nikkei index briefly surpassing the 57,000 points mark [1] - Increased profit-taking by investors led to a reversal in market momentum, contributing to the decline [1] - The preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of the previous year released by the Cabinet Office was below market expectations, adding pressure to the market [1] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with rubber products, banking, and precision machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, information and communication, and mining showed gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a slight decline on the 16th, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.24% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 0.82% [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 135.56 points at 56806.41 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline [3] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 31.47 points, closing at 3787.38 points [3] - Early trading saw the Nikkei index briefly surpass the 57000-point mark, buoyed by a rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with rubber products, banking, and precision machinery sectors experiencing the largest drops [3] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, information and communication, and mining showed gains [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The initial GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of the previous year released by the Japanese Cabinet Office was below market expectations, contributing to downward pressure on the market [2]

Industry Overview - In 2025, the Chinese chemical industry is experiencing a complex situation of cyclical bottoming and structural optimization, with significant internal differentiation [2] - Traditional basic chemicals are seeing slowed growth and prominent supply-demand structural contradictions, while specific sub-sectors are maintaining strong growth, becoming new engines for industry development [2] High-Profit Sectors Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly in chemical preparations, has an average profit margin exceeding 22%, driven by rigid demand, aging population, and high entry barriers [6][7] - The raw materials segment also maintains a profit margin around 22%, with companies like Hai Sheng Pharmaceutical and Senxuan Pharmaceutical expected to exceed 30% in annual profit margins [6][7] - The rubber deep processing sector, benefiting from the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, has an average profit margin of about 22%, with companies like Litong Technology and Kelong New Materials showing average profitability above 24% [8][9] - The oil and gas sector, with an average profit margin of 22%, is experiencing profit improvements due to the gradual relaxation of oil exploration and extraction permissions by the government [10] Low-Profit Sectors Analysis - The gas sector, with an average profit margin below 3%, faces challenges from price volatility and regulatory constraints, limiting its growth potential [11] - The traditional chemical products sector also struggles with an average profit margin below 3%, impacted by overcapacity and weak demand [12][13] - The petrochemical trade sector, similarly, has an average profit margin below 3%, reflecting deep-seated contradictions of overcapacity and declining demand for refined oil products [13] - The chemical fiber sector is facing profitability issues due to low demand in textiles and oversupply of conventional fibers [13] Industry Insights - The chemical industry is highly influenced by macroeconomic factors, with demand being the core variable determining product prosperity [14] - Key trends for 2025 include a shift towards high-value-added segments, the rise of the new energy industry reshaping demand structures, and the release of policy dividends in oil and gas sectors [14] - Companies like Bluestar Technology demonstrate that differentiation and technological upgrades can provide pathways for success in overcapacity industries [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The night - closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,520 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 270,154 lots, an increase of 92,600 lots; the open interest was 162,081 lots, an increase of 10,137 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 25,648 lots, an increase of 1,157 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (spot - futures main) was - 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between mixed rubber and the futures main was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spread between RU05 and RU09 was 90 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,250 US dollars/ton; the STR20 was 2,010 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars; the SMR20 was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars [1] - **Substitutes**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market for imported rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of African 10 rubber was 1885 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [1] Industry News - **Semi - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: Supported by foreign trade orders, the order performance of sample enterprises was better than expected. 50% of the enterprises' export orders increased to varying degrees compared with last month, 38% remained basically stable, and 13% decreased. The EU's rush for export orders and the increase in overseas customer orders before the Spring Festival supported enterprise production scheduling. The domestic replacement market had some stocking, but the overall performance was average, limiting the overall order increase [2][3] - **All - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: The overall order performance further weakened. 20% of the all - steel tire sample enterprises' export orders increased compared with last month, 35% remained the same, and 45% decreased. Before the Spring Festival, overseas customers had moderate stocking, but the overall increase was limited due to the seasonal off - season. Domestic customers were restricted by funds and shipping pressure, and their stocking enthusiasm was not high, further weakening the overall orders [3] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1]

Group 1: Company Overview and Business Model - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of giant all-steel radial tires for engineering machinery and tire operation management for mining [2][3] - The tire operation management service includes comprehensive lifecycle management, enhancing production safety and efficiency for mining companies [3][9] - The company has established a unique "product + operation" business model, which helps clients improve efficiency and reduce costs while accumulating data for continuous product optimization [12] Group 2: Product Performance and Market Strategy - The lifespan of all-steel giant tires varies significantly based on mining conditions, with metal mines typically requiring 12-18 months and non-metal mines 18-24 months for performance data [4] - Sales data for 2024 indicates the following: 49-inch tires sold 5,974 units, 51-inch tires 4,201 units, 57-inch tires 5,594 units, and 63-inch tires 302 units [7] - The company plans to enhance market penetration in domestic markets and expand into international markets, including traditional markets in Europe and North America, as well as emerging markets in BRICS countries and Southeast Asia [10][11] Group 3: Competitive Advantages and Future Plans - The company distinguishes itself from domestic competitors through deep industry expertise, a strong service foundation, and advanced technology in all-steel giant tire development [12] - The company has a mature global layout with over ten subsidiaries abroad, providing localized and responsive services to numerous mining operations worldwide [12] - Future growth will focus on increasing dividend levels and frequency to enhance shareholder returns, aligning with the company's commitment to shareholder value [14] Group 4: Investment and Production Capacity - The company has three main investment projects with construction cycles of 3 years for tire expansion, 2 years for automation upgrades, and 3 years for the R&D center [6] - The establishment of a joint venture tire factory in Russia aims to capitalize on local market opportunities and enhance supply chain resilience [8] - The company is currently not planning additional overseas production lines, focusing instead on strategic assessments of market conditions and regulatory environments [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to the real economy, focusing on its existing industries and forming a business structure centered around two main fields: chemicals and transportation [2] Group 1: Chemical Industry - The new materials chemical business has a production base located in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, with established capacities of 300,000 tons/year for BDO and 360,000 tons/year for calcium carbide [2] - Future plans include expanding production capacities for lanthanum carbon and green electricity, as well as developing new material capacities for PBAT [2] - The company aims to become a leading integrated enterprise in BDO and biodegradable plastics on a global scale [2] Group 2: Transportation Industry - The rail transportation business focuses on key regions such as the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, including Yunnan and Sichuan [2] - The company is dedicated to the development of high-speed rail construction and urban subway projects [2] Group 3: Rubber and Chemical Fiber Industries - The rubber products and chemical fiber production bases are located in Sanmen County, with main products including rubber conveyor belts, V-belts, polyester chips, and polyester industrial yarns [2] - The company is recognized as one of the leading enterprises in the rubber conveyor belt and V-belt sectors in China [2]