6 January 2025 Global Digital Assets 2025 Crypto Outlook: A $200K Bitcoin - 10 predictions for the crypto 'Infinity Age' Gautam Chhugani +91 226 842 1416 gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com Mahika Sapra +91 226 842 1408 mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com Sanskar Chindalia +91 226 842 1445 sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com 3. Bitcoin ETF inflows will exceed $70Bn in 2025 vs. $35Bn in 2024 led by accelerated institutional adoption. 4. Bitcoin miners will continue to shift capacity to AI for value creation. Expect more ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Real Estate in Mainland China and Hong Kong - **Date**: January 7, 2025 Key Points from Mainland China - **Leading Indicators**: - Centaline tier-1 city secondary asking price index dropped from 27 to 26, indicating potential for home prices to turn positive if the index exceeds 40 [4] - Centaline manager confidence index improved slightly from 53 to 54 [4] - Web traffic for agencies decreased by 1% week-over-week [4] - **Sales Data**: - 60-city weekly primary sales registrations fell by 39% week-over-week but increased by 54% year-over-year, largely due to holiday distortions [4] - Daily sales registrations in the first five days of January fell 15% year-over-year, 50% below the four-year average [4] - Weekly secondary sales registrations dropped by 19% week-over-week, but year-over-year growth improved from 51% to 74% [4] - Shenzhen outperformed with a 121% year-over-year increase, followed by Shanghai at 107% and Beijing at 61% [4] - **Sector Performance**: - Mainland China Property sector fell by 3% last week, underperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) which fell by 2% [4] - Distressed developers like Sunac and Shimao saw significant declines of 17% and 9% respectively [4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) like COLI and Greentown outperformed the market [4] - Expected underperformance of the sector until stronger policy expectations arise before the Two Sessions [4] Key Points from Hong Kong - **Potential Supply**: - Projected primary supply for 2025 is 36,000 units, consistent with 2024 levels [4] - Kai Tak is expected to contribute the most with 6,000 units, followed by Tseung Kwan O with 3,200 units [4] - Developers like Henderson and SHKP are expected to lead in launches with 6,300 and 5,000 units respectively [4] - **Market Activity**: - Weekend primary sales were muted at 23 units, a 32% decrease week-over-week, marking a four-month low [4] - Secondary transactions in the top 35 estates grew by 22% week-over-week but remained below the average of 50-70 units in Q4 2024 [4] - Secondary home prices rose by 0.4% week-over-week, while overall home prices fell by 6.5% in 2024, aligning with expectations of a 5-10% drop [4] - Mild downward pressure of 3-5% on home prices is anticipated over the next six months [4] - **Sector Performance**: - Hong Kong Property sector fell by 1% last week, outperforming the HSI [4] - Fortune REIT and Link REIT were the outperformers with increases of 2% and 1% respectively [4] - New World Development (NWD) underperformed with a 6% decline due to liquidity concerns [4] Additional Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: - Preferred stocks include CRL, COLI, and CR Mixc for potential buying on dips [4] - Caution advised on Vanke-H and NWD due to market conditions [4] - **Analyst Contact Information**: - Karl Chan, J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market in Mainland China and Hong Kong, highlighting key indicators, sales data, sector performance, and investment recommendations.

A c t i o n | 06 Jan 2025 05:00:00 ET │ 34 pages US Semiconductor Equipment 2025 Playbook: Risk-Reward Looks Attractive; U/G NVMI/VECO/MKSI/AEIS/FORM to Buy CITI'S TAKE After a sharp 30%+ correction in 2H24, we believe the group is largely discounting a down (Citi -5%) 2025 WFE year driven by lower domestic China + weak consumer memory demand offset partially by continued AI spend tailwinds. We expect key stock performance indicators like estimate revisions and memory pricing momentum to trough in 1H25. Ris ...

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 06 January 2025 Automotive sector Looking back at 2024 and forward to 2025 : key topics to start the year The decline in FCF across EU OEMs from >€35bn to ~€5bn between FY23 and FY24 suggests the whole sector is going through an unprecedented crisis. However we need to bear in mind, the FCF decline can be largely attributed to BMW's brake recall and STLA's inventory situation in NA. Both elements will be reversed in FY25 leading the sector to generate >€20bn in FY25. T ...

ab 6 January 2025 Global Research China Property & Property Management 2025 outlook: destocking to persist Five themes in 2025 We expect some trends from 2024 to continue into 2025, including: 1) existing homes' share gains from new homes; 2) rental market's rising importance; 3) luxury malls' persistent challenges; 4) C-REITs: a rising asset class on lower rates; and 5) diminishing policy impact on physical and stock markets. In 2025, we expect declining trends in the residential new homes market with 10% ...

Key Points Industry or Company * **Global Real Estate Valuation**: The report focuses on the global real estate industry, providing valuation metrics and analysis for over 200 real estate companies/REITs under UBS coverage. * **Regional Focus**: The report includes regional summaries and comparisons for key pricing metrics, performance, and dividend yields across various regions including the United States, Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Middle East, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Latin America. Core Views and Evidence * **Valuation Metrics**: The report presents key valuation metrics such as discount to NAV, P/B, PE, EV/EBITDA, dividend yield, and gearing metrics for the global real estate universe. * **Performance**: The report highlights recent performance data, including best and worst performing stocks, by region and sector. * **Dividend Yields**: The report provides dividend yield data for various real estate companies, indicating the attractiveness of dividend income for investors. * **EPS Growth**: The report forecasts EPS growth for the global real estate industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities. * **Leverage and Balance Sheet**: The report analyzes leverage and balance sheet metrics for real estate companies, assessing their financial health and risk profile. Other Important Points * **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team of analysts with expertise in global real estate research. * **Conflict of Interest**: UBS may have a conflict of interest due to its business relationships with the companies covered in the report. * **Investment Decision**: The report should be considered as one of many factors in making an investment decision. Key Metrics * **Global Real Estate Universe**: As of 3rd January close, the universe under coverage is trading at a 9.5% discount to our NAV estimate, a 2025E P/E of 18.7x, a 2025E DPS yield of 4.0%, and we are forecasting 2024-25 EPS growth of 6.2%. Net debt to total assets is 31%. * **Regional Performance**: The report provides a detailed analysis of performance by region, highlighting the best and worst performing stocks and sectors. * **Dividend Yields**: The report provides dividend yield data for various real estate companies, indicating the attractiveness of dividend income for investors. * **EPS Growth**: The report forecasts EPS growth for the global real estate industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities. * **Leverage and Balance Sheet**: The report analyzes leverage and balance sheet metrics for real estate companies, assessing their financial health and risk profile.

Memory – Winds of Change? No fundamental changes post the Jan. 6 rally – we expect more conservative 1Q25 guidance, confirming the cycle inflecting lower. Channel checks do not support upgrades. At a high level, more scraping the bottom of the AI narrative barrel (CES), but we maintain a cautious view in our base case. Justifying the recent rally... When share prices are up, then sentiment is up. And vice-versa. Last December was unpleasant for the DRAM sector, with stocks down 2% as a group (Hynix +8%, Sam ...

Summary of Key Points from the Research Report on Global Beverages Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global soft drinks bottling industry, particularly the competitive dynamics between major players such as PepsiCo (PEP) and Coca-Cola (KO) in Europe and Asia [1][20]. Core Insights 1. **Bottling Network Consolidation**: PEP is evolving its bottling strategy to consolidate its fragmented network into fewer multi-market 'anchor' bottlers, similar to KO's model. This shift is expected to drive further consolidation in the industry [2][30]. 2. **Carlsberg's Position**: Carlsberg's acquisition of Britvic positions it as PEP's largest European bottler, with expectations of further consolidation benefiting Carlsberg and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) [2][3]. 3. **Royal Unibrew's Challenges**: Royal Unibrew is seen as structurally disadvantaged in the evolving competitive landscape, leading to a downgrade in its rating to Equal Weight (EW) [9][77]. 4. **Market Share Dynamics**: PEP has gained market share in Denmark and Finland at the expense of KO, with PEP's share in Denmark increasing from 6.6% in 2015 to 19.6% in 2023, while KO's share declined from 47.4% to 33.8% [47][48]. 5. **Potential Volume Increases for CCEP**: If Carlsberg loses its KO contracts in Denmark and Finland, CCEP could see a volume increase of approximately 3% in Europe [3][52]. Financial Metrics and Forecasts 1. **Royal Unibrew's Financial Outlook**: The consensus forecast for Royal Unibrew's operating profit growth (OPG) is +9.5% for FY25, but this is viewed as optimistic given the competitive landscape [9][83]. 2. **Debt Levels**: Following the Britvic deal, Carlsberg's debt levels are expected to be higher than its peers, raising concerns about financial stability, especially with significant cash flow reliance on China [8][9]. 3. **Valuation Adjustments**: The report adjusts Royal Unibrew's target growth rate (TGR) from 1.5% to 1.0%, resulting in a price target reduction of approximately 6% to DKK 653 [9][86]. Strategic Considerations 1. **Future Bottling Contracts**: The report suggests that future PEP contracts may be harder for Royal Unibrew to secure due to its weaker positioning compared to Carlsberg [77][82]. 2. **Geographic Expansion Opportunities**: Carlsberg is expanding its relationship with PEP into Asia, including new bottling licenses in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, indicating growth potential beyond Europe [72][73]. 3. **Competitive Landscape**: The changing dynamics favor Carlsberg over Royal Unibrew, as Carlsberg has a stronger presence in key beer markets and better distribution capabilities [7][61]. Risks and Challenges 1. **Market Volatility**: The report highlights risks associated with a potential consumer slowdown, which could impact demand and pricing power across markets [95][144]. 2. **M&A Opportunities**: Royal Unibrew's ability to pursue accretive M&A is crucial for its growth, and any failure to do so could limit its competitive edge [89][144]. Conclusion - The report indicates a significant shift in the soft drinks bottling landscape, with Carlsberg positioned to benefit from PEP's consolidation strategy while Royal Unibrew faces increasing challenges. The financial outlook for both companies is closely tied to their ability to navigate these competitive dynamics and secure future contracts.