Company Overview - Rigetti Computing stock (NASDAQ: RGTI) has seen a significant decline of 23% in less than a month, dropping from $56 on October 15, 2025, to $43, reflecting a broader pullback in the quantum computing sector after a speculative rally [2] - The company's business model relies on limited revenue from research partnerships, specialized hardware sales, and government contracts, while incurring substantial cash burn for research and development [9] Stock Performance - The stock has historically shown a median return of 268% over one year and a peak return of 379% following sharp dips of over 30% within 30 days [4][7] - A price target of $30 is considered realistic, as the stock has previously traded near this level [3] Market Context - The quantum computing industry is still in its nascent stage, focusing on fundamental development and is years away from widespread commercial application, making traditional financial metrics less relevant [8] - Investor enthusiasm for the quantum industry has led to dramatic price swings in RGTI stock, which may continue as the market corrects [2][6]

Core Insights - Ciena's stock has increased by 25% over the past month, but Arista Networks may offer a more attractive investment opportunity due to its superior revenue growth, higher profitability, and lower valuation compared to Ciena [2][6]. Company Overview - Ciena provides hardware, software, and services for the transport, routing, switching, and management of voice, data, and video traffic on communication networks [4]. - Arista Networks specializes in global cloud networking solutions, offering extensive technical support and services beyond standard warranties [4]. Financial Performance - Arista Networks reported a quarterly revenue growth of 30.4%, while Ciena's growth was 29.4%. Over the last 12 months, Arista's revenue growth reached 26.0%, significantly higher than Ciena's 13.0% [6]. - Arista Networks demonstrates superior profitability with a Last Twelve Months (LTM) margin of 43.1% and a three-year average margin of 40.2%, outperforming Ciena [6]. Valuation Comparison - Regular assessment of investment options is crucial, and Arista Networks shows a more favorable valuation compared to Ciena, indicating a potentially better investment choice [2][5].

Group 1 - T-Mobile US is expected to announce earnings on October 23, 2025, with a revenue increase of approximately 9% year-over-year, reaching $22 billion, and earnings per share projected at $2.40 [2] - The growth is attributed to strong postpaid phone additions and the expansion of the high-speed wireless broadband division, supported by the 5G network serving over 330 million people in the U.S. [2] - In the last quarter, T-Mobile reported net customer additions of 830,000 for postpaid phones and 454,000 for 5G broadband [2] Group 2 - T-Mobile has a market capitalization of $260 billion, with revenue of $84 billion over the past twelve months, operating profits of $19 billion, and a net income of $12 billion [3] - Historical data shows that T-Mobile has had 20 earnings data points in the past five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 65% rate of positive returns [5] - The median positive return is 5.3%, while the median negative return is -0.4% [5] Group 3 - A strategy for traders is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, which can inform trading positions [6] - The correlation data indicates that if the one-day post-earnings return is positive, traders may consider a long position for the subsequent five days [6] - T-Mobile's performance can be compared to the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 with returns greater than 105% since its inception [3][7]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) stock is currently trading in a support zone between $49.87 and $55.12, where it has previously bounced back significantly [2] - Over the last decade, TTD stock has shown buying interest at this level seven times, resulting in an average peak return of 80.7% [3] Company Overview - The Trade Desk operates a cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns globally [6] Recent Performance and Risks - TTD experienced a significant decline of over 36% in August 2025 due to weak third-quarter guidance, the sudden departure of the Chief Financial Officer, and increased competition from larger tech companies like Amazon and Netflix [7] - Historically, TTD has faced steep sell-offs during market corrections, including a 36% drop in 2018, over 54% during the Covid crash, and more than 64% amid inflation concerns [7]

Group 1 - Newmont Mining Corporation is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $5.2 billion, driven by increased gold and copper prices and stable production levels [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $104 billion, with total revenue for the past twelve months at $21 billion, operating profits of $8.0 billion, and net income of $6.3 billion [3] - Margins may face slight pressure due to rising labor and energy costs, as well as persistent inflation in mining supplies, despite stronger precious metal prices expected to bolster operating cash flow [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that over the last five years, Newmont has recorded 16 earnings data points, with 5 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 31% of the time [6] - The median of the 5 positive returns is 2.0%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -4.6% [6] - A strategy based on understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be beneficial for traders [7]

Core Insights - Adobe (ADBE) stock is highlighted for its monopoly-like high margins available at a discounted price, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2] - The company benefits from strong pricing power and high margins, leading to consistent and predictable profits and cash flows, which reduces risk and supports capital reinvestment [3] Financial Performance - Adobe experienced a revenue growth of 10.7% over the last twelve months (LTM) and an average growth of 10.5% over the past three years [7] - The company reported an operating cash flow margin of approximately 42.2% and an operating margin of 36.2% for LTM, with long-term averages of about 39.0% and 35.4% respectively [7] - ADBE stock is currently offered at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.3, representing a 38% discount compared to the previous year [7] Market Context - Adobe's diversified software solutions cater to various sectors, including Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing & Advertising, enhancing its market position [3] - The stock selection criterion includes companies with a market cap over $10 billion, focusing on those with high cash flow margins and significant valuation decreases over the past year [6]

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin (APP) stock has dropped by 21.2% in less than a month, raising questions about whether this dip presents a buying opportunity [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - APP stock has experienced a median return of -44% over the past year [2] - Historically, after significant dips (>30% in 30 days), APP has shown a 76% peak return [2][9] - The median time taken to achieve peak return after a dip event is 104 days [9] Group 2: Business Overview - AppLovin provides a software platform that aids mobile app developers in improving app marketing and monetization through AppDiscovery, which connects advertiser demand with publisher supply via auctions [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - While APP stock appears appealing, it is characterized as volatile, suggesting that a diversified investment strategy may be more prudent [4] - The High Quality Portfolio (HQ) has outperformed its benchmark, achieving returns of over 105% since inception, indicating the potential benefits of diversification [4][8]

Core Insights - Amazon.com (AMZN) has experienced significant stock declines in the past, with drops exceeding 30% within two months on three separate occasions, leading to substantial market capitalization losses [2] - The company faces various risks, including regulatory actions, competition in e-commerce, and labor unionization efforts [5][6] Financial Performance - Amazon's revenue growth stands at 10.9% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 11.3% over the past three years [6] - The company has a free cash flow margin of approximately 2.0% and an operating margin of 11.4% LTM [6] - The current P/E ratio for Amazon.com stock is 32.6, indicating a higher valuation compared to the S&P [6] Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has faced a $2.5 billion FTC penalty and a €746 million EU GDPR fine, with potential new penalties under the EU DMA [5] - Walmart's e-commerce revenue constituted 18% of its total in FY25, while Temu aims for a $41 billion GMV by 2025, although growth rates for Temu and Shein are expected to decline sharply due to quality and ethical concerns [5] Historical Performance During Market Downturns - Amazon's stock has historically suffered significant declines during market downturns, including a nearly 94% drop during the Dot-Com Bubble and a 65% loss during the Global Financial Crisis [7] - More recent events, such as the Inflation Shock in 2022, resulted in a drop of over 56%, indicating vulnerability to market corrections [7] Labor Relations - The Teamsters are advocating for 10,000 Amazon employees in 2024, with increasing demands for $30/hour wages [5] - Amazon has invested $2.1 billion in wage increases in 2024, reflecting its response to labor pressures [5]

Company Overview - Gemini Space Station, a cryptocurrency exchange, had a tumultuous IPO debut, initially priced at $28 per share and opening at $37, but has since dropped to around $20, influenced by a crypto selloff and profitability concerns [2][6] - The company manages over $21 billion in assets and serves approximately 10,000 institutions globally, positioning itself as a regulated and compliant entity in the crypto industry [4] Business Model - Gemini's revenue model is heavily reliant on transaction fees from volume-based trades, despite diversifying into custody services, credit card interchange fees, and treasury yields from its stablecoin [4][5] - The introduction of a crypto-linked credit card aims to create new revenue streams and enhance customer engagement, as many cardholders subsequently use the exchange [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Gemini's revenues increased by approximately 40% to $136 million, but growth has slowed, with a forecast of only around 22% for the current year [6][7] - The company reported significant net losses, reaching $282 million in the first half of 2025, totaling about $400 million in the trailing 12 months, a sharp increase from $159 million in 2024 [7] Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Gemini's price-to-sales ratio stands at about 16x projected revenue, which is considered high given its decelerating growth trajectory [6][8] - Increased analyst attention has been noted, with most major banks adopting positive or neutral perspectives on the stock, potentially stabilizing its price [8]

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged recently, setting new records and overshadowing gold, emerging as a key investment in 2025 [2][3] - Silver serves dual roles as a precious metal and an industrial commodity, with demand driven by both safe-haven investment and clean energy applications [3][4] - The combination of strong industrial demand and investor interest creates a scenario where silver prices can accelerate rapidly [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Silver is primarily a by-product of mining other metals like copper, zinc, and gold, leading to constrained supply even when prices rise [5] - Global stocks of silver in major markets have reached unprecedented lows, prompting traders to offer premiums for physical delivery, indicating a tight supply situation [5] Group 3: Economic Factors - Anticipated rate cuts by central banks lead investors to reallocate to non-yielding assets like silver, which is seen as an inflation hedge [6] - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions drive the "fear trade," making tangible assets like silver more attractive [7] Group 4: Historical Context - Previous instances of silver volatility have shown explosive growth followed by retreats, but the current industrial demand provides a stronger foundation than in past cycles [9] Group 5: Benefiting Companies - Companies benefiting from the silver boom include Wheaton Precious Metals, First Majestic Silver, Pan American Silver, and Hecla Mining, with some stocks rising by 30-60% year-to-date [10][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if industrial demand remains strong and central banks maintain a dovish stance, silver prices could reach as high as $65 per ounce by 2026, indicating a potential 20-25% increase from current levels [11] - The combination of green technology demand, tight supply, and investor enthusiasm creates a favorable environment for silver, making it a captivating trade for 2025 [13]