Core Insights - The US dollar experienced its worst annual performance since 2017, ending the year down approximately 8% against a basket of foreign currencies, marking the sharpest annual decline in eight years [1] - Some measures indicate losses closer to 9% to 10%, following a significant first-half drop that erased a decade's worth of gains from the dollar's long bull run [2] - The dollar's decline was exacerbated by President Trump's April "Liberation Day" tariffs, which rattled global markets and raised concerns about lasting damage to US economic growth [2][10] Economic Factors - Core inflation remained near 3%, with tariffs contributing to increased price pressures and pushing consumer inflation expectations higher throughout the summer [3] - Foreign investors began to withdraw, with China reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since 2008, while global asset managers increased hedges against dollar weakness, effectively reducing demand for the currency [3] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy uncertainty and the potential succession of Jerome Powell as chair have negatively impacted the dollar [13] - Expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 are already priced into the market, undermining the dollar's yield advantage as Treasury yields fell from above 4.5% to near 4.1% by December [10] - The Fed's decision to cut rates in response to rising unemployment and slowing payroll growth marked a significant shift from previous aggressive tightening that had supported the dollar [14]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has publicly denied taking a short position on Tesla, despite previously labeling the company's stock as "ridiculously overvalued" [1][3][10] Group 1: Tesla's Performance and Estimates - Tesla's own compilation of analyst delivery estimates indicates an average expectation of 422,850 deliveries in Q4, representing a 15% decline from the previous year [3] - For the full year, Tesla's average delivery estimate is about 1.6 million for 2025, which is an 8% decrease from 2024, marking a second consecutive annual decline [4] - Tesla shares have experienced significant volatility in 2025, influenced by slowing sales and increased competition, particularly from Chinese EV manufacturers [5][7] Group 2: Stock Price Movements - Tesla's stock reached a record closing price of $489.88 on December 16, 2025, but was trading around $453 per share as of Wednesday afternoon [7][10] - The stock has faced pressure earlier in the year due to various factors, including Elon Musk's political activities [5][7] Group 3: Burry's Position and Market Commentary - Burry has made bearish calls on the AI sector and has previously disclosed put options related to Tesla, although he later stated that position was closed [8] - His recent comments draw a distinction between criticizing Tesla's valuation and actively betting against its stock [10] Group 4: Legal Context Surrounding Musk - The National Labor Relations Board has dropped a complaint against Musk's SpaceX regarding severance and arbitration policies, marking a legal win for Musk [11] - This development is part of a broader legal struggle between Musk's companies and federal regulators [12]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver experienced significant volatility at the end of the year, with both metals reaching all-time highs before facing a sharp selloff driven by margin requirements and market speculation [1][3][17]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell over 4% on Monday to approximately $4,355 per ounce after peaking near $4,565 late last week, but rebounded to the $4,385 to $4,400 range on Tuesday [1][7][8]. - Silver saw even more drastic fluctuations, dropping nearly 9% on Monday to just above $73 per ounce after trading above $84 over the weekend, then surging up to 10% intraday on Tuesday [2][10][11]. Market Dynamics - The initial selloff was triggered by CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements on precious metals futures, leading to forced selling during a period of low liquidity [3][4]. - The volatility in the market is exacerbated by the thin trading environment typical of late December, where prices can swing dramatically on minimal conviction [7][16]. Speculative Behavior - The rapid price movements indicate a speculative environment, particularly for silver, which has outpaced gold significantly this year, with gains more than double those of gold at one point [11][16]. - Market participants noted that the rebound in prices suggests underlying demand remains strong, particularly from investors looking for entry points after the selloff [18]. Annual Performance - Despite recent volatility, both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979, with silver up approximately 150% to 160% and gold up about 65% to 70% for the year [17].

Group 1: Mega-Deals Overview - In 2025, a record 68 mega-deals exceeding $10 billion were announced, marking the largest global M&A volume since the pandemic, indicating renewed confidence in corporate boardrooms [1][4] - The average deal size reached nearly $227 million, driven by a favorable regulatory climate and diminishing concerns over President Trump's tariff agenda [2] Group 2: Notable Transactions - Netflix announced a $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and HBO Max, which prompted a $77.9 billion hostile takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [5][10] - Union Pacific's $72 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern aims to create a US transcontinental railroad, facing antitrust scrutiny [5] - Electronic Arts is going private in a $55 billion deal, highlighting the increasing influence of private capital in major transactions [6] - Kimberly-Clark agreed to acquire Kenvue for $40 billion, reflecting the urgency among companies to secure assets amid rising demand [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing perception that failing to act quickly risks losing valuable assets, with corporate leaders feeling pressured to make timely decisions [8] - The market is expected to see an increase in corporate spinoffs and crypto-related acquisitions, alongside a rise in capital flow from sovereign-wealth funds, particularly from the Middle East [11]

Core Viewpoint - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that further interest rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation continues to decrease, as indicated in the minutes from the December 9-10 meeting [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Policymakers reduced interest rates to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% in a 9-3 vote, marking the most dissent since 2019, with debates focusing on inflation versus labor market concerns [1][13] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a more aggressive half-point cut, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged [2] Group 2: Projections and Economic Indicators - Six out of 19 central bankers recommended that the benchmark rate should end 2025 at 3.75% to 4%, which is the range prior to December's cut, with the median forecast suggesting one interest rate cut for all of 2026 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021, while the Consumer Price Index unexpectedly cooled to 2.7% [10] Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The recent government shutdown complicated the economic picture, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warning that job creation figures could be overstated by as many as 60,000 jobs monthly [9] - The US economy grew at a robust 4.3% pace, the fastest in two years, which raises concerns regarding inflation as the Federal Open Market Committee anticipates changes with four new regional presidents entering voting roles, all of whom have shown caution regarding rate cuts [11][12]

SoftBank Group has completed its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, CNBC reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter, marking one of the largest private funding rounds ever and deepening founder Masayoshi Son’s bet on AI.SoftBank has been building one of the largest private technology investment programs in the world, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence and related infrastructure such as data centers.AI has become the central axis of global technology markets this year, driving ...

Core Insights - Tesla has published a weak average estimate of vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter, indicating a potential second consecutive decline in annual sales [1][10] - The company expects to deliver 422,850 vehicles in Q4, which represents a 15% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - Tesla's total vehicle deliveries for the year are projected to be 1.6 million, down more than 8% from 2024 [4] Delivery Estimates - The average delivery estimate of 422,850 vehicles is lower than external projections, such as Bloomberg's estimate of 445,061 vehicles, which reflects a 10% decline from last year [4] - This unusual disclosure of weak delivery estimates on Tesla's investor relations site raises concerns among investors [2] Sales Performance - Earlier in the year, Tesla experienced a sales slump due to retooling production lines for the Model Y, while facing increased competition from Chinese rivals like BYD, which saw a significant sales increase [5] - Despite a challenging sales year, Tesla's stock has risen over 20% so far in 2025, indicating some investor confidence [9] Market Dynamics - The third quarter saw a record rebound in deliveries as consumers rushed to purchase EVs before the expiration of federal tax credits [9] - Tesla introduced more affordable versions of its Model Y and Model 3, priced under $40,000, to mitigate the impact of the disappearing tax incentives [9] Investor Sentiment - Investors have expressed concerns regarding Tesla's focus on artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies during earnings calls, rather than immediate market opportunities [6]

Core Insights - Starbucks is planning to close five more stores in New York City, continuing a trend that began in the fall, with rival Luckin Coffee eyeing these locations for potential expansion [1][5][6] - The closures are attributed to leases not being renewed, following a significant reduction of 34 stores in September due to six consecutive quarters of declining sales [2][5][15] - Luckin Coffee has opened nine stores in NYC within seven months and is actively negotiating for more locations, potentially quadrupling its presence in the city [5][6][13] Company Actions - Starbucks has closed a total of 42 stores in New York City over the year, marking the highest number of closures among chain retailers in the US [12][15] - The company is undergoing a $1 billion restructuring plan, which includes closing 400 stores nationwide and laying off 900 corporate staff [15] - Starbucks is focusing on reopening select locations, such as a shop at 1585 Broadway, but no new openings are planned beyond this [9] Market Dynamics - The abrupt closures of Starbucks stores have significantly impacted the real estate market, as the chain was previously considered a desirable tenant [11][12] - The closures reflect a broader trend where Starbucks has reduced its NYC store count by about 20% since 2019, from 351 to 286 stores [15] - The shift in consumer behavior post-COVID, with fewer customers visiting stores regularly, has contributed to the decline in profitability for many locations [16]

Core Insights - Meta Platforms has acquired the Singapore-based AI startup Manus for over $2 billion, enhancing its AI capabilities amid increasing scrutiny due to the startup's Chinese origins [1][4][12] Acquisition Details - Manus was generating more than $125 million in annual revenue and was valued at $500 million in its last funding round before the acquisition [2][11] - The acquisition was completed in approximately 10 days, indicating a rapid decision-making process by Meta to secure a fast-growing AI agent business [14] Strategic Implications - The acquisition allows Meta to bolster its product roadmap and revenue base, as Manus will continue to operate its subscription service as a standalone product while integrating its engineers into Meta's broader AI teams [13][14] - Meta is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, forecasting capital spending of $70 billion to $72 billion in 2025, with expectations to exceed $100 billion in 2026 [14] National Security Concerns - The acquisition has raised alarms in Washington due to Manus's Chinese roots, prompting scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers regarding investments in AI firms with ties to China [4][5] - Meta has taken steps to address these concerns by ensuring that all Chinese investors were bought out, discontinuing China-facing operations, and implementing safeguards to prevent access to sensitive data [6][11] Talent Acquisition - Meta has committed over $600 billion in U.S. investments by 2028 and is offering substantial compensation packages to attract elite AI talent from competitors like OpenAI, Google, and Apple [15]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is contemplating a lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, accusing him of "gross incompetence" related to the Federal Reserve's renovation project, which he claims is significantly over budget [1][4][7]. Group 1: Lawsuit Consideration - Trump stated he is considering a lawsuit against Powell for "gross incompetence" due to the renovation costs of the Fed headquarters, which he claims are excessive [1][4]. - The lawsuit would be an unusual move, as it involves a president suing one of his own appointees, and the legal basis for such a lawsuit is unclear [7]. Group 2: Renovation Costs - Trump asserted that the renovation project is projected to cost over $4 billion, which he deems excessive compared to other construction projects [2][4]. - A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve indicated that the actual budget for the renovation is approximately $2.5 billion, contradicting Trump's claims [4]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Trump has been critical of Powell for not reducing interest rates quickly enough, despite the Federal Reserve's three quarter-point rate cuts in 2023, lowering the target rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [5]. - Trump has previously expressed that he would not fire Powell as long as interest rates were being cut, indicating the importance of monetary policy to his administration [5][10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Comparisons - Trump compared the Fed renovation costs to the new White House ballroom, claiming his project is more cost-effective and ahead of schedule [6]. - Powell defended the renovation project, stating it involves significant historical buildings and is large in scope, which justifies the costs [6].