Core Viewpoint - BigBear.ai is a small-cap AI company with a market cap of less than $3 billion, attracting investor interest due to limited investment opportunities in this sector [1][2]. Company Overview - BigBear.ai focuses on providing custom AI solutions primarily to government and government-adjacent clients, with its largest contract being with the U.S. Army for the Global Force Information Management-Objective Environment (GFIM-OE) system [4]. - The company has also made strides in airport security with its facial recognition software, although its applications are limited [6]. Recent Developments - BigBear.ai recently acquired Ask Sage, a generative AI platform aimed at national security, which adds a recurring revenue stream of approximately $25 million to its business [11]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to transition from a consulting software company to a platform software company, potentially improving its gross margins [10][11]. Financial Performance - BigBear.ai's revenue has decreased by 20% year-over-year in Q3 2025, raising concerns about its growth potential during a time of high demand for AI solutions [13][14]. - The company generated nearly $145 million in revenue over the past 12 months, but the negative growth trend is a significant red flag for investors [11][14]. Valuation Concerns - The stock trades at 14 times sales, which may appear attractive for an AI software company; however, typical valuations for software stocks range from 10 to 20 times sales, requiring an 80% gross margin [16]. - Given its low gross margin and negative revenue growth, BigBear.ai's valuation may be more aligned with companies like Spotify, which trades at about 6 times sales [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three well-known consumer stocks that are struggling and suggests that investors may want to consider divesting from them as they reevaluate their portfolios for 2026. Group 1: Nike - Nike has faced challenges due to changing consumer tastes and macroeconomic conditions, leading to increased competition from brands like Adidas and Under Armour [4][5] - In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Nike's revenue increased by only 1%, following a 10% decline in fiscal 2025, while net income fell 32% to $792 million due to rising expenses [6] - Despite a current price of $60.83 and a market cap of $90 billion, Nike's P/E ratio of 34 indicates it remains relatively expensive, suggesting potential reconsideration for investors [8] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks has struggled post-CEO Howard Schultz, facing complaints about high prices, slow service, and poor in-store experiences, which have affected its business and reputation [9][10] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, revenue grew by 6% year-over-year, but net income plummeted 85% to $133 million due to faster expense growth and one-time restructuring charges [11][12] - With a current price of $85.07 and a market cap of $97 billion, Starbucks has a forward P/E ratio of 37, indicating it trades at a premium despite ongoing struggles [14] Group 3: Kraft Heinz - Kraft Heinz has been criticized for the failure of its merger, with Warren Buffett acknowledging its shortcomings, and the planned split of the company is unlikely to resolve core issues [15][17] - In Q3 of 2025, net sales dropped 3% annually, continuing a trend since 2023, although the company reported earnings of $615 million due to the absence of impairment losses [18] - With a current price of $24.13 and a market cap of $29 billion, Kraft Heinz's P/E ratio of 12 may attract some investors, but ongoing challenges suggest it may be best to avoid this stock [16][19]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF (VONG) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) are both designed for investors seeking exposure to large-cap U.S. growth stocks, but they track different indexes and exhibit subtle differences in sector allocations and portfolio breadth [1][7] Cost and Size Comparison - VUG has a lower expense ratio of 0.04% compared to VONG's 0.07% - As of December 28, 2025, VUG's one-year return is 18.02%, while VONG's is 17.17% - VUG has a dividend yield of 0.42%, slightly lower than VONG's 0.45% - VUG has a larger assets under management (AUM) of $353 billion compared to VONG's $45 billion [3] Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the last five years, VUG has a maximum drawdown of -35.61%, while VONG's is -32.71% - A $1,000 investment in VUG would grow to $1,970 over five years, compared to $2,010 for VONG [4] Portfolio Composition - VONG tracks the Russell 1000 Growth Index and holds 391 stocks, with 55% in technology, 13% in consumer cyclical, and 12% in communication services - VUG tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index and holds 160 stocks, with 53% in technology and 14% each in communication services and consumer cyclical [5][6] Diversification and Investment Strategy - VUG's smaller portfolio of 160 holdings may lead to higher volatility and greater potential for outperformance if those stocks succeed - VONG's greater diversification with 391 stocks may limit risk during market volatility, but it also increases the chance of lower performers diluting earnings [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that while IMAX has had a strong performance, Walt Disney is considered a superior investment due to its robust business model and diverse revenue streams [1]. IMAX Performance - IMAX reported a record third-quarter revenue of nearly $107 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, with net income rising by 39% to over $26 million, surpassing analyst expectations [4]. - The company achieved its fifth-best opening with the release of "Avatar: Fire and Ash," which was also its widest release at 1,703 screens [2]. Walt Disney Performance - Disney's fiscal 2025 results showed a revenue growth of 3% to over $94 billion, with all reporting segments (entertainment, sports, and experiences) experiencing increases [8]. - The company's GAAP net profit surged nearly 58% to $12 billion, driven by improved operating income across all segments [8]. - Disney's streaming services, particularly Disney+, reached profitability in 2024, contributing to overall revenue growth [7]. Future Outlook - Disney is expected to see double-digit percentage growth in operating income for its entertainment segment in fiscal 2026, while sports and experiences are projected to grow in the single digits [9]. - IMAX, while expanding its business, remains vulnerable to changes in movie-going trends and lacks the scale of Disney [13]. Valuation Metrics - Disney has a price-to-book ratio of 1.84 and a price-to-sales ratio below 2.2, which are favorable compared to IMAX's ratios of 5.8 and 5.5, respectively [14]. - On forward P/E, Disney's ratio stands at 17, while IMAX's is at 22, indicating that Disney is a better buy based on key valuation metrics [14]. Conclusion - Despite IMAX's strong management and promising future, Disney is positioned as the more attractive investment due to its established brand, diverse revenue sources, and favorable valuation metrics [15].

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced significant stock performance, increasing over 1,000% since the launch of ChatGPT, benefiting from the AI spending surge among major tech companies [1] - Analysts predict Nvidia's market cap could reach $6 trillion by 2026, with a median price target of $250, representing a 30% increase from current levels [2] Nvidia's Position - Nvidia is recognized as a leading chipmaker for AI infrastructure, particularly for training large language models [1] - However, it may face challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory as competitors like Alphabet gain momentum in AI applications and hardware [17] Alphabet's Growth and Performance - Alphabet's Google Cloud division reported a 34% revenue growth last quarter, with an operating margin of 24%, and a backlog of $155 billion, up 46% year-over-year [5] - The demand for Alphabet's custom-built Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) is increasing, providing a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia's GPUs for AI training [6] - Alphabet's large language model, Gemini 3.0, has outperformed competitors, leading to increased consumer engagement and a potential partnership with Apple for AI-powered Siri features [7][8] Financial Strength and Innovations - Alphabet's innovations in AI are enhancing its core business, including search and YouTube, with Google Search revenue up 15% in Q3 2025 [11] - YouTube also saw a 15% revenue growth, driven by AI features that improve user engagement and monetization [12] - The self-driving car business, Waymo, is expanding rapidly, completing 14 million trips in 2025 and aiming for 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026 [13] Investment Perspective - Alphabet is viewed as a diversified growth stock with a favorable valuation, trading at less than 30 times forward earnings expectations, compared to over 40 times for Nvidia [15] - Strong earnings growth is anticipated as Alphabet's cloud business scales and operating margins improve, providing opportunities for share repurchases [16]

Core Insights - Both IonQ and Rigetti Computing are significant players in the quantum computing sector, developing advanced technologies but facing substantial cash burn [1] Company Overview - IonQ utilizes a trapped-ion system for its quantum computing technology, while Rigetti employs superconducting qubits, with both targeting industries such as AI, finance, defense, cybersecurity, and manufacturing [2] - IonQ has a market capitalization of $16 billion, while Rigetti's market cap is approximately $7.4 billion [2][6] Financial Performance - IonQ's latest quarterly report showed positive results, exceeding revenue expectations and raising its full-year revenue guidance to $110 million, despite operating costs of $473 million for the first nine months of the year [4] - Rigetti reported revenue of $5.2 million for the first nine months of 2025, with operating losses of $63.4 million during the same period [7] Capital and Valuation - IonQ completed a $2 billion capital raise through new share sales, which diluted existing shareholders but was necessary for continued progress [5] - Rigetti's technology shows scalability potential, but IonQ's current valuation is considered more attractive than Rigetti's [8] Competitive Landscape - It remains uncertain which company will emerge as the leader in the quantum computing space, with IonQ being more established and having significant partnerships, while Rigetti presents a higher-risk, higher-reward investment opportunity [10]

Company Overview - BILL Holdings has a total revenue of $1.50 billion and a net income of $11.93 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company's stock price is currently at $55.23, reflecting a one-year price change of -38% [4] Investment Activity - Totem Point Management initiated a new position in BILL Holdings, acquiring 71,225 shares valued at approximately $3.77 million as of September 30 [2][3] - This new position represents 3.36% of Totem Point's total reportable U.S. equity assets under management [3] Business Model and Performance - BILL operates a cloud-based platform that automates financial operations for small and midsize enterprises, generating revenue primarily through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model [6][9] - In the most recent quarter, BILL reported total revenue of $395.7 million, a 10% year-over-year increase, with core revenue growing 14% [10] - The platform processed $89 billion in payment volume during the quarter, serving nearly 500,000 businesses, indicating steady adoption despite market challenges [10] Market Position and Outlook - Despite a significant stock price decline, the underlying business fundamentals remain strong, suggesting a disconnect between market pricing and business performance [1][11] - The new investment by Totem Point Management aligns with a portfolio focused on durable growth franchises, indicating a belief in BILL's long-term potential as a discounted compounder [11]

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is a nascent industry with significant long-term potential, currently in its early commercialization phase, making it a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity [1] - Investors can approach the sector through established tech giants for stability or pure-play start-ups for higher potential returns, albeit with increased volatility [2][3] Company Analysis: Alphabet - Alphabet, through its Google Quantum AI division, is a leader in quantum computing, focusing on developing a large-scale, error-corrected quantum computer [5] - The Willow quantum chip, unveiled in late 2024, has achieved major milestones, including significantly reduced error rates and a breakthrough algorithm called Quantum Echoes that performs calculations 13,000 times faster than classical supercomputers [6][7] - Google Quantum AI aims to build a large error-corrected quantum computer with a goal of 1 million qubits, collaborating with universities and national labs [8] - In Q3, Alphabet's revenue grew 16% year over year to $102.3 billion, with net income climbing 33% to about $35 billion, supported by a strong balance sheet with $98.5 billion in cash and low debt [11][12] Company Analysis: IonQ - IonQ is a leading pure-play quantum computing company utilizing trapped-ion technology, achieving 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, a critical benchmark for high accuracy in quantum operations [13][15] - The company collaborates with various partners, including AstraZeneca and Nvidia, for drug development and Hyundai for self-driving car technology [16] - In Q3, IonQ's revenue surged 222% year over year to $39.9 million, despite a substantial GAAP net loss of $1.1 billion due to non-cash charges [19] - IonQ operates a business model monetizing its technology through Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) and partnerships with government agencies, while expanding into quantum networking and security [17][18]

Group 1 - PNC Bank has become the first major bank to offer Bitcoin trading services to eligible high-net-worth clients through its platform [1][3] - The service is created in partnership with Coinbase, which will also provide banking services to the crypto exchange [3] - PNC Bank plans to expand its cryptocurrency services to more customers in the future, indicating a potential shift towards mainstream adoption of crypto [3][9] Group 2 - Bitcoin purchased through PNC Bank will not be covered by FDIC insurance, highlighting a lack of consumer protection compared to traditional banking [4][6] - The current market cap of Bitcoin is approximately $1.7 trillion, with a price of $68,567 and a day's trading range between $87,419 and $87,943 [5][6] - PNC Bank's Bitcoin purchases are part of Coinbase's crypto-as-a-service, which includes custody services, although custody fees may apply [7]

Company Overview - KE Holdings Inc. is a leading real estate services provider in China, utilizing technology to connect buyers, sellers, and agents through its Beike and Lianjia platforms [5] - The company operates a hybrid online-offline business model, generating revenue primarily from transaction commissions, service fees, and value-added offerings [7] - KE Holdings serves home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate agents across China, targeting both individual consumers and institutional clients in the residential property sector [7] Financial Performance - As of the latest report, KE Holdings had a market capitalization of $18.86 billion and revenue of $14.52 billion for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company reported net income of $549.10 million for the TTM [4] - In the third quarter, KE Holdings generated $3.2 billion in net revenue, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, although net income decreased by 36% year-over-year to $105 million [8] Investment Activity - Perseverance Asset Management International initiated a new position in KE Holdings, acquiring 659,849 shares valued at approximately $12.54 million [1][2] - The fund's total reportable positions include 23 holdings with $840.49 million in U.S. equity assets under management as of September 30 [2] Market Context - KE Holdings' share price was $16.22, down 12% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which increased by about 15% during the same period [3] - The company ended the quarter with approximately $7.8 billion in cash and equivalents, and it repurchased $281 million of shares in the quarter, totaling about $675 million year to date, reducing its share count by roughly 3% [9] Strategic Positioning - The investment in KE Holdings reflects a focus on durable cash flow and optionality in a challenging market environment [1] - The company is seen as having a defensible position in the competitive housing market, supported by its scale and comprehensive service portfolio [5][10]