20VC with Harry Stebbings

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Newton's Law of Companies
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-29 05:00
I always joke that Newton's law of motion applies to companies. Things in motion stay in motion. I can never remember anything going 1 million to 9 million and then flattening out to 12, let alone 1 billion to 9 billion.Just the trajectory alone, it implies 30 something the following year, which would be a significant slowdown. You'd have gone from a 9x year to a 3x year. I just don't know how to process. ...
AI is Just Hypnosis
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-28 14:05
We have all been sold a lot of hypnosis around what's about to happen with AI. You're talking to somebody who is extremely suspect if anybody uses those initials. Agi.Today we're joined by one of the greatest founders of the last 20 years, Mark Benny off from Salesforce. When you look at other data clouds, Snowflake, Data Brick, Palanteer Foundry, they're all in the three to4 billion revenue. They're in my sites.Doctors who are using AI and they're so overrelyant on an AI that's inaccurate, they are giving ...
Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-28 14:03
Investments and Acquisitions - Scale led investments in category leaders such as Billcom, Box, DocuSign, and WalkMe [1] - Salesforce expanded through major acquisitions including Slack, Tableau, and MuleSoft [1] - Anthropic's funding round reached $10 billion [1] - a16z made 72 seed investments compared to Sequoia's 27 [1] Market Trends and Dynamics - Discussion on whether SaaS apps will disappear in an AI world [1] - Analysis of the evolution of Sales Development Representatives (SDRs) due to AI [1] - Debate on who will win in the AI race: OpenAI or Anthropic [1] - Klarna's valuation experienced a wild ride, from $45 billion to $6 billion, then aiming for a $15 billion IPO [1] Leadership and Strategy - Consideration of whether Marc Benioff feels the need to acquire AI talent like Mark Zuckerberg [1] - Examination of Salesforce's learnings from Palantir on forward-deployed engineers [1] - Discussion on whether consensus investing is dangerous or the only viable strategy [1]
Could China Win the AI Race?
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-28 05:00
Do you think there will be a leading model that has not been created yet. >> Yes. From China.>> Do you worry about China. >> Chinese companies are not as good as really understanding your users. So, not very worried.I do think there's like a 50/50 chance they will have the best model. We'll be using a Chinese model at some point. And that makes me a bit concerned.>> Would you use Chinese models at Lovable. >> If we would. Yeah.>> And I would have to look into the details and see like what's bad about that. ...
Is this OpenAI's Smartest Move?
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-27 14:00
Talent Competition - Meta's high cash compensation, reportedly $10 million to $100 million, puts significant pressure on AI companies like OpenAI [1][2] - Large sums of money can sway individuals, regardless of their initial statements about mission or values [1] - To retain talent, OpenAI may need to match Meta's compensation packages [2] Financial Implications - A $6 billion investment translates to only $60 million per 100 engineers or $10 million per 600 engineers, which is considered relatively small [2] Strategic Considerations - Offering a $10 million or $100 million offer from Meta can significantly alter an individual's life decisions and career path [2] - Predicting employee retention based on abstract statements is unreliable [1]
Why Sector Funds Don't Work
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-27 05:00
We don't hire sector specific investors and we don't give you air cover if your sector goes out of favor. Meaning our job is to make our LPs money and if you're in a sector that's cooling off, you better get the hell out and go somewhere else that's going to make money or like you should stop investing. And the risk of having a semiconductor fund or a semiconductor team is that you know you carve out pick a number 500 million to invest there.like you bet your ass they're going to invest 500 million in semi ...
The Hidden Math of AI
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-26 14:01
One of the coolest things about the profile of entropic and perplexity and canon these businesses is the math actually pencils out. You'll hear these founders talk about like in the foundation model phase it's a bit misleading because the P&L doesn't match beautifully but you should think of these model releases as a product in and of themselves and there's a healthy life cycle to that product and so you're monetizing last year's training in this year's revenue line while you're investing in next year's mod ...
I lost $BILLIONS on Tesla
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-25 17:00
Company Performance & History - Tesla's early unit economics for the Roadster were unsustainable [2] - Tesla required a Department of Energy (DOE) bailout loan to survive [2] - Elon Musk's entrepreneurial drive was crucial to Tesla's success [1] Entrepreneurial & Investment Insights - Overlooking Elon Musk's capabilities led to a missed investment opportunity [1]
The Stakes Have Never Been Higher
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-25 14:00
Market Potential - The industry believes the stakes are significantly higher than before [1] - The industry anticipates the next phase to be substantial [1] - The industry expects the scale to have increased tenfold [1] - The industry predicts the emergence of numerous trillion-dollar businesses [1] Business Outlook - The industry indicates that the competition has begun [1]
BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-08-25 14:00
AI Investment Landscape - The AI sector is expected to generate numerous trillion-dollar businesses [1][52] - Venture firms recognize the need for scale to effectively operate throughout the private market lifecycle [2] - A significant portion of venture funding is concentrated in a small number of top AI deals, with the top three LLMs potentially raising $100 billion in a six-month period [2] - AI is seen as a foundational element for the future of vertical SaaS, enhancing data models, connectivity, and marketplace capabilities [2] - AI solutions are increasingly impacting labor budgets, not just technology budgets, opening up a multi-trillion dollar market [3] Investment Strategies & Considerations - Investment decisions are focused on the future margin profile of companies, considering potential for significant capital expenditure [1] - Venture firms are willing to be small investors in potentially very large companies, accepting dilution in exchange for exposure to generational companies [1] - The pace of innovation is rapidly compressing, favoring teams that can iterate quickly [1] - Efficiency still matters, with a quantified trade-off between growth and efficiency, especially at mid-stage scale (around $50 million ARR) [5] - The industry is seeing a shift towards consumer-like growth rates for enterprise businesses, with some companies reaching $100 million in ARR in 18 months [5]