上汽集团(600104) /乘用车 /公司点评 /2024.05.30 自主品牌、新能源、海外市场持续发力 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 ❖ 事件：公司发布4月销量公告，公司总销量36万辆，同比减少3.73%。新能 基本数据 2024-05-29 源车型销售7.5万辆，同比增长9.33%，销售占比为20.72%；出口及海外基地 收盘价(元) 14.13 流通股本(亿股) 115.75 销售9.2万辆，同比增加2.7%，销量占比为25.57%。主要分公司销量情况： 每股净资产(元) 25.00 上汽大众销量9.2万辆，同比增长4.18%。上汽通用销量5.0万辆，同比减少 总股本(亿股) 115.75 37.92%。上汽乘用车销量6.3万辆，同比减少7.24%。上汽通用五菱销量12.3 最近12月市场表现 万辆，同比增长16.81%。上汽大通销量1.7万辆，同比减少5.50%。 ❖ 自主品牌销量占比超六成，新能源汽车“稳步向上”：4月份上汽集团销 上汽集团 沪深300 售整车36万辆，新能源、海外销量稳步增长，自主品牌销量占比超六成。自 上证指数 17% 主品牌、新能源、海外市场新三驾马车持续发 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The launch of the fifth-generation DM technology and new models, including the Tai L DM-i and Seal 06 DM-i, is expected to accelerate the transition from fuel to electric vehicles in the automotive market [2] - The fifth-generation DM technology features a highly efficient engine with a thermal efficiency of 46.06%, a power density increase of 70.28% in the EHS hybrid system, and a comprehensive efficiency of 92% [2] - The new models are priced between 99,800 and 139,800 yuan, offering significant fuel efficiency improvements, with fuel consumption only one-third that of traditional fuel vehicles and a comprehensive range three times greater [2] - The projected net profits for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 31.632 billion, 36.236 billion, and 39.615 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.67, 18.04, and 16.50 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 424.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 96.20%, and is projected to reach 707.13 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 17.40% [3] - The net profit for 2022 was 16.622 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 445.86%, and is expected to grow to 31.632 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.30% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 5.71 yuan, projected to increase to 10.87 yuan in 2024 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 14.97%, expected to be 19.70% in 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is the only provincial state-owned securities firm in Shandong, with strong shareholder support and collaboration capabilities. It has integrated local financial resources and has seen significant improvements in market share for equity, IPO, and bond underwriting in 2023 [2]. - The company has enhanced its asset management landscape by increasing its stake in Wanji Fund, which has shown strong growth in public fund business, with non-monetary fund scale reaching 157.7 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [2]. - The company's balance sheet has optimization potential, which is expected to improve future profitability. The company has reduced its equity self-operated scale from 19.2% in 2018 to 5.0% in 2023, allowing for greater flexibility in fixed-income asset expansion [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only provincial state-owned securities firm in Shandong, established in May 2001, with a history of multiple capital increases and shareholder changes [10]. - It has a comprehensive business layout, including securities, futures, funds, and investments, with a presence in 28 provinces and over 280 securities offices [13]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown high volatility compared to industry averages, with significant losses in 2022 due to market fluctuations. However, there has been a notable recovery in 2023 [18][21]. - The company’s net income for 2023 was 1.8 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 13.03 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.13% [3]. Industry Position - The company maintains a stable position in the upper-middle tier of the industry, with its revenue ranking consistently between 14th and 17th from 2018 to 2023. Its asset management revenue has improved significantly due to the consolidation of Wanji Fund [28][29]. Highlights - The company benefits from direct management by the Shandong Provincial Party Committee, enhancing its strategic cooperation and market development capabilities [30]. - Shandong's strong economic foundation supports the company's wealth management and investment banking businesses, with a GDP of 9.21 trillion yuan in 2023 [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focused on price stability and has implemented a series of measures to support pricing, including reducing distributor contract volumes by 20% in 2024, increasing factory prices by 50 yuan, and controlling inventory levels [2][3] - The marketing transformation is deepening, establishing a solid foundation for price control, with a focus on flattening the distribution structure and enhancing channel management capabilities [2][3] - The product portfolio is continuously optimized, with potential growth beyond the main brand, including strategies for various price segments and product types [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Price Control Measures - The company has adopted a series of strategies to stabilize prices, including reducing supply and controlling inventory, which has led to increased confidence among distributors [2][3] - Historical price adjustments show a consistent pattern of price increases, with the company maintaining a strong operational capability in managing pricing strategies [2][3] 2. Marketing and Channel Reform - The company has undergone significant marketing reforms since 2017, enhancing its channel management and reducing reliance on large distributors [2][3] - The establishment of a digital marketing system has improved transparency and efficiency in channel management, allowing for better control over pricing and inventory [2][3] 3. Product Portfolio Development - The company has developed a clear product matrix, focusing on both high-end and diversified products to capture different market segments [2][3] - The introduction of new products and marketing initiatives aims to enhance brand value and meet evolving consumer preferences [2][3] 4. Financial Projections - The company aims to maintain double-digit revenue growth through 2024, with projected net profits of 337.2 billion yuan, 377.9 billion yuan, and 421.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.6%, 12.1%, and 11.5% [3][4] - The current valuation is considered relatively low, with a high dividend yield, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown a decline, with the real estate index dropping by 5.26% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [3][6] - Recent policy changes, including the reduction of down payment ratios and loan interest rates, are expected to gradually improve sales, particularly in high-tier cities [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong credit advantages and those that have made early investments in core areas [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 5.26%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.08%, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [3][6] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with top gainers including Xinhua Lian and Te Fa Service, while Hainan Highway and Konggang Shares faced significant declines [8][9] Sales Overview - In the week of May 17-23, 2024, the total transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities was 2 million square meters, down 5.4% month-on-month and 35.6% year-on-year [11][12] - The report details the sales performance across different city tiers, noting that first-tier cities saw a transaction area of 490,000 square meters, down 7.6% month-on-month and 27.1% year-on-year [11][12] Inventory and Depletion - The report provides insights into inventory levels and depletion cycles, indicating that first-tier cities have varying depletion cycles, with Beijing at 28.94 months and Shanghai at 8.69 months [27][28] Key News Tracking - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics indicated a continued decline in housing prices across major cities in April 2024, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights recent policy changes in major cities aimed at boosting the real estate market, including lowering down payments and interest rates for first-time homebuyers. These measures are expected to enhance market confidence and stimulate housing demand [3] - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales area, new construction area, and completion area in April 2024, indicating potential recovery in the housing market, which could positively impact the home furnishing sector [3] - The report suggests that the home furnishing sector is likely to experience valuation and fundamental recovery, recommending attention to leading companies in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On May 27, 2024, Shanghai announced a series of policies to optimize the real estate market, including reducing the down payment for first homes to 20% and adjusting loan interest rates [3] - Following Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou also announced similar policies on May 28, with Shenzhen reducing the first home down payment to 20% and lowering the interest rate floor [3] Market Performance - In April 2024, the residential sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous decline of 27.1% [3] - New construction area and completion area also showed reduced declines of 13.7% and 13.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home (603833.SH) and Kuka Home (603816.SH), which are expected to benefit from improved supply chain efficiency and management capabilities [4] - Other recommended companies include Mousse (001323.SZ), Juran Home (000785.SZ), and Xilinmen (603008.SH), which are noted for their strong brand presence and market strategies [4]

中国化学(601117)/专业工程/ 公司深度研究报告/ 2024.05.28 工程出海觅良机，实业转型待潮涌 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 ❖ 化学工程行业龙头，造血能力强，货币类资产充裕。公司是国内化学工 基本数据 2024-05-28 程行业龙头，化学工程业务营收与订单贡献超过70%，公司创立70年来，设 收盘价(元) 8.40 流通股本(亿股) 60.50 计建造了我国90%的化工项目、70%的石油化工项目、30%的炼油项目。区别 每股净资产(元) 9.62 于传统建筑施工业务业主地位较高，经营过程中企业垫资情况较多、收款较 总股本(亿股) 61.09 难，公司经营环境相对较好，报表端来看，2018-2023年公司产生归属净利润 最近12月市场表现 241.3 亿元，经营性现金流净流入 308.4 亿元，公司造血能力较强；并且货币 类资产充足，2023 年末在手货币资金+交易性金融资产+一年内到期的非流动 中国化学 沪深300 资产合计515.8亿元，占总资产比例23.5%，有息负债仅185.3亿元。 上证指数 专业工程 6% -2% ❖ 工程出海排头兵，境外发展迎机遇。近年来公司在 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around the company's upcoming product launch in the digital space, specifically a digital avatar referred to as "digital boss lady" Core Points and Arguments - The overall market conditions are currently favorable, which supports the company's strategic initiatives [1] - The company plans to officially launch the "digital boss lady" product in the second to third quarter of this year, indicating a timeline for product rollout [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on the digital product suggests a shift towards innovative solutions in response to market trends, highlighting the company's adaptability [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2023, with operating income reaching 5.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 39.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 913 million yuan, up 40.84% [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.642 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.69%, and a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 36.92% [2] - The gross margin improved slightly, with 2023 and Q1 2024 gross margins at 29.09% and 29.67%, respectively [2] - The company is expanding its capacity in the new energy sector, with a focus on core components for electric vehicles, and plans for new production bases in both domestic and international markets [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the total revenue was 5.957 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.67% compared to 2022 [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 913 million yuan, with a net profit growth rate of 40.84% [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.141 billion yuan, 1.422 billion yuan, and 1.761 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.48, 13.22, and 10.68 [3][4] - The revenue growth rates for the next three years are projected at 26.14%, 25.23%, and 23.41% [4] Capacity Expansion and Product Development - The company is diversifying its customer base to include major multinational automotive parts suppliers and new energy vehicle manufacturers [2] - The sales revenue from products for new energy vehicles accounted for approximately 30% of total sales in 2023, with expectations for significant growth in this segment [2] - The second phase of the production base in Ma'anshan, Anhui, is progressing, and the second phase of the factory in Mexico is planned to be operational by 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in prices for silicon materials and photovoltaic components, with a slight increase in inventory levels, indicating a challenging market environment [2][9] - The lithium battery sector shows strong demand driven by small digital power needs, with rising prices for wet separators and challenges in sourcing copper foil [2][11] - The wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with new projects and tenders being announced, particularly in offshore wind [2][21] - The power equipment sector continues to see high growth in exports, particularly for transformers, with a notable increase in export value [2][34] Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - Prices for silicon materials and photovoltaic components have decreased, with dense silicon prices dropping to 41 RMB/kg, a 2.4% weekly decline [7][9] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with inventory levels rising and overseas demand remaining weak [2][9] - A meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association discussed industry issues and proposed measures to encourage mergers and ensure healthy development [2][10] Lithium Batteries - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 106,500 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.47% [11] - The prices for various lithium battery components, including ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries, have shown slight increases [13][18] - Demand for consumer batteries remains strong, with recommendations to focus on key companies in the sector [2][20] Wind Power - New wind power tenders amounting to 1.6 GW have been announced, with significant growth in both onshore and offshore projects [21][24] - Cumulative wind power tenders for 2024 have reached 59.19 GW, a 154.24% year-on-year increase [21][24] Power Equipment - Exports of transformers (rated capacity >16kVA) reached 2.448 billion RMB in April, a 41.2% year-on-year increase [34][36] - The report notes a strong performance in the export of power equipment products, with significant growth in various regions [34][37] - Investment in power generation and grid projects has also seen growth, with a reported investment of 136.5 billion RMB in the first quarter of 2024 [29][32]