Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The cheese industry is experiencing an improvement in competitive landscape, with a significant growth potential compared to overseas markets. The market size is expected to reach 300-400 billion yuan in the medium term [8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and breaking into new consumer segments, particularly in the C-end market, while leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [8]. - The collaboration with Mengniu is expected to enhance the B-end business growth, capitalizing on the rising demand in Western fast food and ready-to-drink markets [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 53.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The cheese industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with a market size of 93.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.5% year-on-year [15][17]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with the CR5 of the cheese industry expected to rise to 63.7% in 2024, indicating a consolidation of market share among leading brands [17][19]. 2. C-end Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cheese+" strategy, focusing on small packaging and healthy cheese snacks, while exploring new consumption scenarios such as baking and breakfast [8][35]. - The C-end business is expected to diversify beyond children's cheese sticks, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% for ready-to-eat nutrition products in 2024 [8]. 3. B-end Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its B-end business, achieving breakthroughs in five major channels including Western cuisine and tea drinks, supported by Mengniu's resources [8][35]. - The integration of Mengniu's cheese business is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer resources, driving collaborative growth in the B-end market [8]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 53.7 billion yuan, 60.2 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company expects to achieve a PE ratio of 61, 42, and 31 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [8].

证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.07.27 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《美国消费仍具韧性——全球经济观察 第 4 期》 2025-07-19 2. 《美国低招聘、低裁员——全球经济观察 第 3 期》 2025-07-12 3. 《国债收益率普遍上行——全球经济观 察第 2 期》 2025-07-05 4. 《美国降息预期升温——全球经济观察 第 1 期》 2025-06-28 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：日经领涨全球股市。股市方面，本周全球主要股市多数上 涨，受日美达成贸易关税协议提振，日经 225 较上周上涨 4.1%，领涨全球 股市。美股三大指数均有所上涨。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率涨跌互现， 10 年期美债收益率较上周下行 4bp。商品方面，本周油价有所走低，主因欧 美贸易协议谈判僵持，引发原油需求前景担忧。汇率方面，美元指数回落 0.8%。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 美国投资或转弱 ——全球经济观察第 5 期 ❖ 主要央行货币政策：欧央行保持利率不变。美联储 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant trend in the futures market driven by "anti-involution" strategies, with leading sectors such as polysilicon and coking coal showing substantial price increases due to production cuts and environmental regulations [4][11]. - The report indicates that there is still potential for over 15% price appreciation in leading stocks related to polysilicon, coking coal, glass, and coke, as the price trends in commodities remain upward [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to bottom out and recover, suggesting that stock market performance is closely tied to PPI movements [5][12]. Group 2 - The report outlines a "dumbbell trading" strategy observed in fund holdings, where there is an increase in allocations to TMT sectors like telecommunications and media, while reducing exposure to consumer goods and manufacturing sectors [6][15]. - The report notes that the second quarter saw a consensus among both northbound and domestic funds to increase allocations in dividend-paying sectors and cyclical industries, while reducing exposure to consumer and manufacturing sectors [16]. - The report discusses the historical performance of PPI cycles, indicating that during PPI upturns, cyclical sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals tend to perform strongly [5][13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report analyzes the regular reports of active equity funds from multiple perspectives, including scale, quantity, position, concentration, industry and sector allocation, and individual stock allocation, aiming to provide an overview of fund trading behavior characteristics and asset allocation [6]. Group 2: Scale and Quantity Analysis - As of 2Q2025, there were 4,385 active equity funds in the market, an increase of 44 compared to the end of the previous quarter. The total scale of active equity funds was 3.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.472 billion yuan or 0.95pct compared to the end of the previous quarter [8]. - In 2Q2025, 71 active equity funds were established in the market, with a combined issuance share of 3.6593 billion shares, a significant increase of 139.18pct compared to the end of the previous quarter [10]. - In terms of fund scale distribution, in 2Q2025, the proportion of active equity funds with a scale of less than 100 million yuan was as high as 80.55%. The proportion of large - scale funds continued to decline. The proportion of funds with a scale of less than 200 million yuan was 46.51%, a 0.12pct increase compared to the end of the previous quarter [14]. Group 3: Position Analysis - In 2Q2025, the equity positions of active equity funds increased slightly. The equity positions of common stock - type, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible - allocation funds were 90.20%, 87.50%, and 72.58% respectively, an increase of 0.86pct, 1.14pct, and 1.12pct compared to the end of the previous quarter [16]. - The Hong Kong stock positions of active equity funds increased significantly. The Hong Kong stock positions of common stock - type, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible - allocation funds were 12.85%, 17.09%, and 4.08% respectively, an increase of 0.84pct, 1.61pct, and 0.36pct compared to the end of the previous quarter [18]. Group 4: Concentration Analysis - In 2Q2025, the concentration of individual stocks and industries of active equity funds decreased slightly. The concentration of the top 3, top 5, and top 10 individual stocks was 20.92%, 31.25%, and 51.77% respectively, a decrease of 0.43pct, 0.87pct, and 1.17pct compared to the end of the previous quarter. The concentration of the first, top 3, and top 5 industries was 18.24%, 37.31%, and 46.53% respectively, a decrease of 0.33pct, 1.07pct, and 1.13pct compared to the end of the previous quarter [21]. Group 5: Heavy - Positioned Sector Analysis - In the A - share market, in 2Q2025, the top three sectors with heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds were technology, manufacturing, and consumption, accounting for 27.89%, 23.84%, and 14.84% respectively. The sectors with increased positions were technology, financial real estate, and medicine, with an increase of 2.82pct, 1.83pct, and 0.38pct compared to the previous quarter [25]. - In the Hong Kong stock market, the top three sectors with heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds were technology, consumption, and medicine, accounting for 46.82%, 14.40%, and 13.42% respectively. The sectors with increased positions were medicine and financial real estate, with an increase of 4.94pct and 2.39pct compared to the previous quarter [26]. Group 6: Heavy - Positioned Industry Analysis 6.1 Active Equity Funds - In A - share allocation, in 2Q2025, the top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds in terms of market value were electronics, medicine, and power equipment and new energy, accounting for 18.11%, 11.47%, and 8.85% respectively. The industries with the top three active increases in positions were communication, banking, and non - banking finance, with an increase of 2.51pct, 0.76pct, and 0.74pct respectively [30][32]. - In Hong Kong stock allocation, the top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds in terms of market value were media, electronics, and medicine, accounting for 25.69%, 13.48%, and 13.42% respectively. The industries with the top three active increases in positions were medicine, non - banking finance, and computer, with an increase of 3.88pct, 1.48pct, and 0.88pct respectively [36][37]. 6.2 Performance - Excellent and Hundred - Billion Funds - In A - share allocation, in 2Q2025, the top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of performance - excellent funds in terms of market value were medicine, national defense and military industry, and communication, accounting for 64.66%, 9.03%, and 8.41% respectively. The top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of hundred - billion funds were food and beverage, electronics, and medicine, accounting for 19.55%, 19.52%, and 19.35% respectively [40]. - In Hong Kong stock allocation, the top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of performance - excellent funds in terms of market value were medicine, media, and commerce and retail, accounting for 91.45%, 2.40%, and 1.51% respectively. The top three industries with heavy - positioned stocks of hundred - billion funds were media, communication, and commerce and retail, accounting for 32.18%, 13.18%, and 12.03% respectively [41]. Group 7: Heavy - Positioned Individual Stock Analysis 7.1 Heavy - Positioned Individual Stock Market Value Analysis - In 2Q2025, the top three A - shares with the highest absolute market value of heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds were CATL, Kweichow Moutai, and Midea Group, with market values of 46.6 billion yuan, 26.213 billion yuan, and 25.094 billion yuan respectively. The top three A - shares in terms of allocation market - value ratio were InnoCare Pharma - U, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and BeiGene - U, with the proportion of shares held in the floating shares being 31.99%, 24.84%, and 24.50% respectively [47]. - The top three Hong Kong stocks with the highest absolute market value of heavy - positioned stocks of active equity funds were Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group - W, and Alibaba - W, with market values of 55.608 billion yuan, 19.662 billion yuan, and 18.9 billion yuan respectively. The top three Hong Kong stocks in terms of allocation market - value ratio were 3SBio, Kelun Botai Biopharma - B, and Shanghai Fudan, with the proportion of shares held in the floating shares being 12.56%, 10.57%, and 8.95% respectively [49]. 7.2 Heavy - Positioned Individual Stock Active Position - Adjustment Analysis - In 2Q2025, the top three A - shares with the highest active increase in positions of active equity funds compared to the end of the previous quarter were Zhongji Innolight, Hudian Co., Ltd., and Sinnet Technology, with an increase of 12.953 billion yuan, 7.642 billion yuan, and 7.506 billion yuan respectively. The top three A - shares with the highest active decrease in positions were BYD, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye Yibin, with a decrease of 11.04 billion yuan, 5.527 billion yuan, and 5.021 billion yuan respectively [51]. - The top three Hong Kong stocks with the highest active increase in positions of active equity funds compared to the end of the previous quarter were 3SBio, Innovent Biologics, and JD Health, with an increase of 4.919 billion yuan, 4.07 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan respectively. The top three Hong Kong stocks with the highest active decrease in positions were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, and SMIC, with a decrease of 10.71 billion yuan, 8.463 billion yuan, and 3.235 billion yuan respectively [53].

Inflation Trends - June CPI year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 2.7%, while core CPI increased to 2.9%[1] - Energy prices showed a narrowing decline, with electricity prices rising 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by increased demand from data centers and aging infrastructure[1][15] - Gasoline CPI decline narrowed to -8.3%, a significant improvement of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][15] Commodity and Service Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth rose to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating that tariff costs are being gradually passed on to consumers[4][17] - Core service inflation remained stable at 3.6%, with rent growth holding steady at 3.8%[21] - The overall service inflation lacks strong upward momentum, limiting significant rebounds[21] Economic Outlook - Market expectations suggest two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with the earliest cut anticipated in September[26] - The rebound in inflation is primarily driven by energy and core commodity inflation, while core service inflation remains stable[26] - Risks include potential unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve and further economic downturns in the U.S.[30]

Group 1 - The report indicates a gradual recovery in global economic conditions, with the US economy showing weaker-than-expected performance and potential impacts from new policies [5][16][22] - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing in China, while the US and Europe are at the beginning of their easing cycles, with expectations of rate cuts in the near future [5][44][48] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have influenced market sentiment, leading to fluctuations in asset prices, especially in gold and oil [7][30][64] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the performance of different asset classes, with gold and oil leading due to geopolitical risks, while US equities continue to rise despite mixed economic signals [7][11][27] - The report discusses the divergence in performance between A-shares and H-shares, with H-shares showing stronger performance driven by sectors like healthcare and cyclical stocks [11][61] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors a "barbell strategy" in A-shares, combining growth sectors (TMT) with dividend-paying stocks, as the economic recovery is still in verification phase [56][58] Group 3 - The report outlines the trends in interest rates, indicating that US Treasury yields are fluctuating around 4.4%-4.5%, while Chinese bond yields are around 1.6%-1.7% [64][67] - The report highlights the weakening demand for US Treasuries amid a declining dollar, suggesting a potential shift in investment preferences towards non-US assets [24][27] - The report indicates that the RMB is stabilizing against the dollar, alleviating some pressure on the currency due to the ongoing monetary policy adjustments [67][68] Group 4 - The report identifies the potential for recovery in the Chinese economy, with signs of improvement in consumption and investment, particularly in infrastructure [32][36] - The report notes that credit growth is primarily driven by fiscal measures, while household credit growth remains low, indicating a cautious recovery [32][34] - The report suggests that the outlook for the Chinese economy is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued recovery in the second half of the year [36][39] Group 5 - The report discusses the valuation comparisons between A-shares and US equities, indicating that A-shares are trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio compared to US stocks, suggesting potential upside [54][56] - The report highlights the recovery potential in the technology sector within H-shares, which is expected to benefit from easing trade tensions and a weaker dollar [61][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global markets, particularly in the context of energy prices and risk sentiment [30][64]

Group 1: Policy Changes - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost and expand consumption, highlighting three key changes in consumption policy[3] - The focus is shifting from goods consumption to service consumption, with increased emphasis on supporting service sectors[10] - The guidelines support the listing of quality consumption enterprises, indicating a dual shift in financing and income expansion policies[26] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, retail sales of goods grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service production index showed a weaker growth of 6.2%[12] - Urban residents' per capita annual property income grew by only 2.9% in 2023, significantly lower than the 8.7% compound growth from 2015 to 2021[24] - The guidelines propose a new 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to enhance service consumption infrastructure[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Uncertainties in consumer expectations may affect the effectiveness of consumption policies[5] - The overseas economic environment could influence the pace of policy implementation, given the complexities in global markets[31] - The ability of capital markets to sustainably increase residents' income remains uncertain, with potential volatility in market performance[31]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Value Added Discrepancy - Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of power generation has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of industrial value added, with industrial value added increasing by 6.3% from January to May, while power generation only grew by 0.3%[7] - The power generation data used refers only to large-scale industrial power generation enterprises, which excludes smaller enterprises that contribute less than 8% to total electricity consumption, thus limiting their impact on overall power generation growth[3] - The divergence between power generation and industrial value added is particularly pronounced in sectors such as electrical machinery, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and general equipment, where power consumption growth is significantly lower than industrial value added growth[23] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Industry Performance - The current economic environment shows a clear differentiation in performance between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises experiencing better profitability compared to smaller ones in the electrical machinery, chemical, non-metallic mineral, and general equipment sectors[35] - Many manufacturing sectors are facing overcapacity, with capacity utilization rates historically low, indicating a potential shift towards more efficient and advanced enterprises as less efficient capacities are phased out[28] - The ongoing divergence between power generation and industrial value added is expected to persist, reflecting weak demand and overcapacity in the industry, similar to conditions observed during the supply-side structural reforms in 2015[36]

Revenue and Expenditure Targets - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, below the annual target of 1.3%[10] - The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years[10] - General public budget expenditure from January to April reached 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth rate of 4.4%[16] Government Financing and Deficit - The narrow fiscal deficit for January to April was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%[24] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 2.65 trillion yuan, with a usage rate of 19%, slightly above the average of 17.8% for the past five years[27] - Net financing of ordinary government bonds in the first five months was 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target, the highest since 2015[30] Special Bonds and Policy Support - The issuance of special bonds has been slower this year, with a progress rate of 37.1% in the first five months, lower than the levels of 2022 and 2023[32] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at 1.3 trillion yuan, with 363 billion yuan issued by the end of May, achieving a completion rate of 27.9%[32] - The proportion of special bonds used for land reserves has increased, with nearly 110 billion yuan issued, accounting for 7% of special bonds[36] Future Policy Outlook - The estimated revenue gap for broad fiscal income in 2025 is approximately 550 billion yuan, indicating a potential need for additional policy support if revenue performance does not improve[43] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and infrastructure projects[56]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]