Economic Performance - In August, industrial production growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 5.1% in July and below the market expectation of 4.7%[1] - The service sector production index also decreased to a growth rate of 4.6%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[1] - Monthly GDP growth is estimated to be around 4.5%, increasing pressure to meet the annual economic development target[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in August, marking the first negative growth in 2024, primarily due to the drag from real estate investment[1] Real Estate Market - The impact of real estate policies has been weak, with new housing sales showing slight improvement but overall market conditions remaining poor[1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new homes remains high at 11.4, indicating significant pressure on inventory reduction[1] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 8.6% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 9.4% decline[1] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth for consumer goods was only 2.1% year-on-year in August, below the market expectation of 2.7%[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence and spending power[1] - Online retail sales growth also slowed, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by only 8.1% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in August totaled 900 billion yuan, slightly above the market expectation of 885 billion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 310.3 billion yuan[1] - Total social financing increased by 3.03 trillion yuan, slightly better than the expected 2.7 trillion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 979 billion yuan[1] - M1 money supply growth fell sharply by 7.3%, significantly below the market expectation of a 2.3% decline, indicating weak economic vitality[1]

2024 年 09 月 17 日 宏观经济 假期出行需求旺盛，经济高频数据边际改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.09—2024.09.15） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证指数下探 2700 点，债券强势收涨。上证综指、沪深 300 与 沪深 300 分别收跌 2.2%、2.2%与 0.2%。债券整体收涨 0.4%，1 年、5 年、 10 年期国债收益率分别回落 13、5.8 与 6.5bp。海外美股美债同步收涨。道 琼斯、标普 500 与纳斯达克分别收涨 1.4%、2.8%与 4.7%。 A 股配置策略：降低仓位，注重绝对防御。重心下移阶段绝对收益难度 增大，板块较难走出独立行情，降低仓位、等政策面明确后再择时加仓是最 佳策略。国债收益率持续回落阶段，依然看好红利板块防御价值。绝对收益 继续关注央企红利板块中估值中枢历史低位、中报业绩有支撑的保险、公路 铁路标的。相对收益短期仍然看好年内政策支持的家电板块。中期仍看好电 网、轨交板块，需求相对刚性，业绩支撑性强。 宏观经济及政策动态 8 月，受高温多雨天气、内需较弱等方面影响，工业生产同比增速下降 至 4.5%，服务业生产指数同比增速降至 4 ...

2024 年 09 月 19 日 宏观经济 美联储降息路径仍不确定 ——2024 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 宏观点评 9月美联储如期降息50个基点。9月18日，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC 宣布联邦基金利率的目标区间从 5.25%到 5.50%降至 4.75%至 5.0%，降幅 50 个基点。本次会议降息幅度符合市场预期，但年内后续降息幅度低于预期。 从会议前一日的 CME FED WATCH 展望来看，市场预期 9 月降息 50bp 的概 率为 64%，本次降息已被市场充分预期。但会议对后续降息空间有所调整。 会前，市场预期 11 月、12 月将分别降息 25bp（概率 51%）与 50bp（概率 42%）。但会议利率展望部分年内仅有 50bp 降息空间，即 11 月、12 月分别 降息 25bp。 下调年内 GDP 增速和 PCE 通胀预期。本次会议下调年内 GDP 增速预 期和 PCE 通胀预期，调高失业率预期。此次会议预计 2024 年第四季度 GDP 同比增速为 2.0%，6 月预期为 2.1%。2024 年第四季度的失业率预期为 4.4%， 6月预期仅为4.0%。2024年第四季度PCE通胀预 ...