Economic Outlook - The September Politburo meeting indicates a rapid change in economic conditions, highlighting urgent economic issues and the need for timely policy responses[1] - The meeting acknowledged the economic performance in 2024 but noted a decline in growth momentum, with GDP growth in Q3 expected to be around 4.6%[1][6] - Industrial production growth fell to 4.5% year-on-year in August, while retail sales growth dropped to 2.1%, reflecting weak domestic demand[6] Macro Policy - The meeting emphasized increasing counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy measures, including necessary fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds[10] - Public fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while government fund revenue fell by 21.1%[10] - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate, indicating a strong monetary easing stance[10][16] Real Estate Market - The Politburo meeting explicitly called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides[19] - Supply-side measures include controlling new housing construction and increasing funding for "white list" projects to prevent unfinished buildings[19] - Demand-side measures involve adjusting housing purchase restrictions and lowering existing mortgage rates, with a 50 basis point reduction already announced[22] Capital Market - The meeting stressed the need to boost the capital market, with specific measures to attract long-term funds and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies[25] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio below the 10-year median, indicating a need for market stabilization[25][28] - Policies to protect small investors and promote public fund reforms are also being considered to enhance market confidence[25] Economic Entities - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting enterprises, particularly private ones, to navigate challenges and improve the business environment[30] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in the first eight months of 2024, marking the first negative growth this year[30] - Employment remains a critical focus, with the urban unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in August, necessitating targeted support for vulnerable groups[30][33]

Policy Measures - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%[1] - Existing mortgage rates will be lowered by about 0.5 percentage points, saving households approximately 150 billion yuan annually[1] Real Estate Policies - The minimum down payment for first and second homes will be unified to 15%[1] - The central bank's support for affordable housing refinancing will increase from 60% to 100%[1] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will be extended until the end of 2026[1] Monetary Policy Tools - Two new monetary policy tools will be created to support stock market stability, including a 500 billion yuan swap facility for financial institutions[1] - A special re-loan program for stock buybacks will be initiated with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan[1] Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to see gains similar to the average spring rally since 2016, contingent on fiscal policy support[1] - If fiscal policies are robust, the market may experience a long-term reversal opportunity; otherwise, gains may be limited[1] Risk Factors - The effectiveness of policies may be weaker than expected, and market confidence may take time to recover[1] - The real estate market remains sluggish, which could hinder overall economic recovery[1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Tiantan Biological Products (600161 SH) as of September 20 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Tiantan Biological has transformed into a pure blood products company after restructuring in 2017, focusing on plasma-derived products [1] - The company has become the industry leader with 102 plasma collection stations (80 operational, 22 under construction) and 2415 tons of plasma collected in 2023 [1] - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product matrix to 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products by covering all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - The company is building three major plasma processing bases (Yong'an, Kunming, Lanzhou) with total planned capacity of 3600 tons/year to break through production bottlenecks [2][46] Business Restructuring - Tiantan Biological completed a two-step restructuring in 2017-2018 to focus on blood products [15] - Step 1: Transferred vaccine business to parent company and acquired Guizhou Zhongtai [16] - Step 2: Acquired three major blood product assets (Shanghai, Wuhan, Lanzhou) through Chengdu Rongsheng [16] - The restructuring achieved synergies in plasma station management, product complementarity, and R&D coordination [19][20] - The company exceeded its three-year performance commitment after restructuring [26] Plasma Collection Expansion - Tiantan Biological has expanded plasma collection through multiple channels [1] - Increased stake in Chengdu Rongsheng to 74 01% [27] - Obtained 43 new plasma station approvals in 2021-2022 [1] - Acquired Xi'an Huitian (63 69% stake) and Zhongyuan Ruide (100% stake) to expand in Shaanxi and Hubei [36][37] - The company's plasma collection increased from 1400 tons in 2017 to 2415 tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 9 6% [34] - New plasma stations typically take 3-4 years to reach full capacity, with 20 new stations starting operation in 2023 [1] Product Development - Tiantan Biological has expanded its product portfolio to cover all major categories of plasma-derived products [2] - 8 approved products in 2023, with plans to increase to 9 products [2] - Added recombinant coagulation factor VIII and high-purity IVIG (10%) to its product line [44] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin reached record highs in 2023 at 50 8% and 29 1% respectively [45] - Plasma utilization rate has improved with the expansion of product lines [39] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 16 billion yuan in 2024 to 8 19 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15 2% [3][55] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 90 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 0% [3][55] - Plasma collection is forecasted to reach 2669 tons in 2024, 3079 tons in 2025, and 3418 tons in 2026 [54] Valuation - As of September 20 2024, Tiantan Biological's PE (TTM) is 32 1x, 13 4% higher than the industry average [6][7] - The company's ton-plasma market value is 20 60 million yuan, based on 2024E equity plasma volume of 1975 tons [7] - Tiantan Biological's ton-plasma output value reached 2 145 million yuan in 2023, still below the industry average of 2 408 million yuan [55]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Tian Tan Biological, as it is positioned as a leading player in the blood products industry and is in a phase of rapid plasma volume growth [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has undergone significant restructuring to focus solely on blood products, divesting its vaccine business and consolidating blood product assets under its subsidiary, Chengdu Rongsheng, which has led to enhanced operational efficiency and market positioning [1][19]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities through acquisitions and new plasma stations, achieving a total of 102 plasma collection stations, with a significant increase in plasma collection volume [2][27]. - The product matrix has been strengthened, with the company achieving a record high in gross and net profit margins in 2023, supported by the completion of its coagulation product line [2][3]. Summary by Sections Focus: Restructuring of Vaccine and Blood Product Assets - The company initiated a two-step internal restructuring to eliminate competition with its controlling shareholder, transferring its vaccine business and acquiring blood product assets [15][16]. - The integration of blood product operations has resulted in a synergistic effect, enhancing production capacity and resource utilization [19][20]. - The company has exceeded its three-year performance commitments post-restructuring, demonstrating strong operational performance [26]. Expansion: Multi-Dimensional Growth of Plasma Sources - The company has increased its stake in Chengdu Rongsheng, raising its ownership to 74.01%, thereby enhancing its equity plasma share [27]. - It has successfully obtained approvals for new plasma stations, significantly increasing its plasma collection capacity [30][32]. - The average plasma collection per station has improved, with ongoing efforts to optimize existing stations [2][30]. Strengthening: Expanding Product Matrix - The company has enriched its product offerings, achieving a total of 9 blood product varieties in 2023, with a focus on coagulation products [2][3]. - Operational efficiency has improved, leading to record gross and net profit margins in 2023 [2][3]. - New production bases are being established to alleviate capacity constraints, with significant progress in the construction of key facilities [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 61.6 billion, 71.1 billion, and 81.9 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 13.9 billion, 16.4 billion, and 19.0 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [3][7]. - The company's current market valuation is approximately 406.9 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 29.3 for 2024, indicating a favorable investment outlook [6][7].

2024 年 09 月 22 日 宏观经济 美联储降息，人民币汇率升值 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.16—2024.09.22） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证综指、沪深 300 与创业板指分别收涨 1.2%、1.3%与 0.1%。 债券市场整体持平，国债收益率表现分化，1 年、5 年期国债收益率继续回 升 8 与 0.5bp，10 年期国债收益率收跌 3.2bp。海外道琼斯、纳斯达克与标普 500 指数分别收涨 1.1%、2.0%与 1.2%。 A 股配臵策略：继续关注补贴政策下高景气的家电板块机会。家电方面， 以旧换新政策对家电拉力弹性已经凸显，Q3 家电业绩确定性较强，交易时 间有望延续至 10 月三季报阶段。基本金属在美联储降息、交易所库存下降 催化下上周表现较强，但库存绝对水平仍在近年高位，降息兑现后期货价格 需要更多宏观与行业数据来判断方向，但从三季报来看基本金属、贵金属价 格相对 2023 年同期涨幅可观，三季报确定性较高，股价表现仍有望相对偏 强。创新药方面，9 月 20 日盘后美"生物安全法案"未被纳入参议院 2025 财年国防授权法案，本周 CXO 板块有望迎来短期反弹机会 ...

2024 年 09 月 08 日 宏观经济 美国就业数据喜忧参半，美联储降息将至 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.02—2024.09.08） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，A 股市场普遍收跌，上证综指、沪深 300、创业板指均收跌 2.7%， 科创 50 指数收跌 4.6%，领跌市场。债市走强，债券整体指数收涨 0.4%，1 年、5 年、10 年期国债收益率分别回落 5.8、7.3 与 3.3bp。海外市场再次收 跌，道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普 500 指数分别收跌 2.9%、5.8%与 4.2%，美债 收涨。 A 股配置策略：降低仓位，注重绝对防御。重心下移阶段绝对收益难度 增大，国债收益率持续回落阶段，依然看好红利板块防御价值。绝对收益关 注央企红利板块中估值中枢历史低位、中报业绩有支撑的保险、优质地方银 行、公路铁路标的。相对收益仍然看好政策支持的家电、汽车板块。奥维云 网数据显示白电 8 月内销销量同比增长 30%，率先实施以旧换新的省份销量 涨幅领先，补贴政策下或仍有持续性。中期仍看好电网、船舶、轨交板块， 需求相对刚性，业绩支撑性强。 宏观经济及政策动态 8 月，随着天气影响减弱，美国新增非 ...

2024 年 9 月 10 日 宏观经济 多因素共振下，中国出口与全球 PMI 背离 ——2024 年 8 月进出口数据点评 宏观点评 多因素共振下，出口增速回升。8 月份，出口同比增速 8.7%，高于 7 月 份的 7%；环比增速 2.7%，高于 7 月份的-2.3%。其一，8 月天气影响消退后， 港口集装箱吞吐量回升。其二，"抢出口"及圣诞季备货因素。中国和欧美 贸易摩擦风险较大，特别是面对美国大选的不确定性，美国进口商抓紧时间 备货。其三，海外经济处于扩张末端，消费仍存在韧性。8 月，美国 ISM 制 造业、非制造业 PMI 分别回升至 47.2%、51.5%。虽然超额储蓄不断消耗， 但美国居民良好的资产负债表状况，加上财富效应，以及薪资增速维持高位， 避免了美国消费大起大落，从而有利于平滑美国经济周期。8 月，中国家用 电器、家具出口分别累计同比增长 14.7%、9.9%，保持较高增速。其四，海 外资本开支后周期阶段，中国机电产品出口增速上升。中国机电产品、高新 技术产品出口累计同比增速均从 2024 年 4 月开始回升，8 月分别上升至 6.5%、4.9%。与此同时，全球半导体行业周期继续扩张，半导 ...

2024 年 9 月 9 日 宏观经济 蔬菜价格支撑 CPI，内需、油价拖累非食品价格 ——2024 年 8 月通胀数据点评 宏观点评 8 月，天气因素导致蔬菜价格上涨超出季节性，CPI 同比增速上升 0.1 个百分点至 0.6%。内需较弱，加之油价等大宗商品价格下滑，非食品通胀 普遍下跌，PPI 同比降幅扩大。 幅下滑，内需较弱，PPI 降幅扩大。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 蔬菜价格超季节性上涨，拉升 CPI 同比增速。8 月，食品、能源、核心 CPI 三因素对 CPI 的同比拉动率分别，增加约 0.5 个百分点，减少 0.53 个百 分点，减少约 0.07 个百分点，最终共同减少 0.1 个百分点。CPI 同比增速上 升主要是因为食品价格由上月同比持平转为上涨 2.8%，影响 CPI 同比上涨 约 0.5 个百分点。其中，受天气影响，鲜菜价格同比上涨 21.8%，涨幅比上 月扩大 18.5 个百分点。虽然 8 月份猪肉价格继续环比上升，但同比增速从 20.4%回调至 16.1%，不是 8 月 CPI 同比增速上升的主要原 ...

Economic Performance - In August, industrial production growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 5.1% in July and below the market expectation of 4.7%[1] - The service sector production index also decreased to a growth rate of 4.6%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[1] - Monthly GDP growth is estimated to be around 4.5%, increasing pressure to meet the annual economic development target[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in August, marking the first negative growth in 2024, primarily due to the drag from real estate investment[1] Real Estate Market - The impact of real estate policies has been weak, with new housing sales showing slight improvement but overall market conditions remaining poor[1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new homes remains high at 11.4, indicating significant pressure on inventory reduction[1] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 8.6% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 9.4% decline[1] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth for consumer goods was only 2.1% year-on-year in August, below the market expectation of 2.7%[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence and spending power[1] - Online retail sales growth also slowed, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by only 8.1% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in August totaled 900 billion yuan, slightly above the market expectation of 885 billion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 310.3 billion yuan[1] - Total social financing increased by 3.03 trillion yuan, slightly better than the expected 2.7 trillion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 979 billion yuan[1] - M1 money supply growth fell sharply by 7.3%, significantly below the market expectation of a 2.3% decline, indicating weak economic vitality[1]

2024 年 09 月 17 日 宏观经济 假期出行需求旺盛，经济高频数据边际改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2024.09.09—2024.09.15） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 上周，上证指数下探 2700 点，债券强势收涨。上证综指、沪深 300 与 沪深 300 分别收跌 2.2%、2.2%与 0.2%。债券整体收涨 0.4%，1 年、5 年、 10 年期国债收益率分别回落 13、5.8 与 6.5bp。海外美股美债同步收涨。道 琼斯、标普 500 与纳斯达克分别收涨 1.4%、2.8%与 4.7%。 A 股配置策略：降低仓位，注重绝对防御。重心下移阶段绝对收益难度 增大，板块较难走出独立行情，降低仓位、等政策面明确后再择时加仓是最 佳策略。国债收益率持续回落阶段，依然看好红利板块防御价值。绝对收益 继续关注央企红利板块中估值中枢历史低位、中报业绩有支撑的保险、公路 铁路标的。相对收益短期仍然看好年内政策支持的家电板块。中期仍看好电 网、轨交板块，需求相对刚性，业绩支撑性强。 宏观经济及政策动态 8 月，受高温多雨天气、内需较弱等方面影响，工业生产同比增速下降 至 4.5%，服务业生产指数同比增速降至 4 ...