2025 年 10 月 15 日 宏观经济 以旧换新加之反内卷，物价势头改善 ——2025 年 9 月物价数据点评 宏观点评 以旧换新拉动下核心 CPI 同比增速上升。受食品价格拖累，9 月份 CPI 同比下降 0.3%，但降幅较上月的 0.4%略有收窄。9 月份食品价格同比下降 4.4%，拖累 CPI 约 1 个百分点。食品价格下跌主要有两个分项拖累，一个是 鲜菜价格，同比下降 13.7%。但鲜菜价格环比上涨了 1.7%，说明这个同比下 跌主要是去年高基数因素，去年主要是受天气因素扰动，鲜菜价格同比上涨 超 20%。另一个是猪肉价格，同比下跌 17%。过去一年，猪肉价格走出一波 下跌趋势，从去年 8 月份的高点下跌 33%。猪肉价格对短期经济周期反应较 为敏感，这个趋势确实应该引起重视。核心 CPI 同比上升 1%，连续 5 个月 加速。分拆来看，主要是家用器具、生活用品和服务以及其他分项增速较快。 家用器具分项上涨，主要是去年经济周期低点影响下的低基数，和今年以旧 换新补贴推升的消费需求回升导致的，重点行业的反内卷也在推动价格的回 升。 低基数加上分内卷，PPI 同比降幅收窄。9 月份，PPI 同比下降 ...

2025 年 10 月 14 日 怎么看中美经贸摩擦再次加剧？ 9 月 14 日，中美于西班牙马德里进行第四轮经贸会谈，双方贸易关系似 有缓和迹象。但是近期美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，我国进行反 制，中美经贸摩擦再次加剧。中国对经贸谈判是开放的，主张一直都是"在 相互尊重、平等协商基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧"，短 期内中美经贸关系存在两种可能。 第一种情景，阶段性缓和。当前中国反制措施中，对美国影响最大的是 稀土管制，美国及其盟重建稀土产业链需要几年的时间，短期内仍将严重依 赖中国出口。10 月 9 日中国公布的出口管制措施是 11 月 8 日生效，美国威 胁对中国加征 100%关税及"所有关键软件"实施出口管制是 11 月 1 日生 效，生效日期均在 10 月底 APEC 会议之前。APEC 会议期间中美领导人会 谈也未明确是否取消。因此，在 APEC 会议之前或者会议期间，中美双方可 能达成阶段性协议，比如近期新增限制措施取消、暂停或放松。不过，即使 达成阶段性协议，中国完全取消稀土管制的可能性也不大，更可能是技术上 放松出口。 第二种情景，关税摩擦持续升级。之前良好的经贸会谈氛围 ...

2025 年 09 月 23 日 电气设备行业 光伏板块修复态势明显，风电储能板块景气上行 ——风光储网行业 2025 年半年报点评报告 行业深度 行业复苏态势明显：光伏板块业绩触底回升，风电储能板块景气度上行 基本面方面，电新板块 2024 年业绩承压明显，2025 年上半年复苏态势逐渐清 晰。其中，光伏电池片、硅片、逆变器、风机零部件板块业绩增长幅度较大， 光伏辅材玻璃等环节板块相对承压。供给端方面，整治"内卷式"竞争进入 具体政策落地阶段，行业整体扩产节奏显著放缓，行业供需格局在持续优化 过程中。估值方面，行业整体估值水平处于历史中位数附近，风光板块估值 处于历史底部区间。 市场表现方面，储能、风电板块表现相对较好，较行业指数取得正向超额收 益，光伏、电网设备板块表现欠佳，跑输行业指数。其中，储能板块受益于 行业景气持续上行，出货量快速增长，大幅跑赢行业基准。风电板块招标市 场的景气度开始向产业链公司收入端传导，带动风电产业链公司业绩明显修 复。光伏板块受益于整治"内卷式"竞争带来的悲观预期修正，产品价格企 稳反弹带动业绩修复。电网设备板块稳定增长的防御属性在今年以来风偏上 行的市场中不占优，因此涨幅相 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high in mid-August, surpassing 3800 points, indicating a growing bullish sentiment in the market [1][8] - Market valuations, including broad indices and leading sectors, have reached relatively high levels since 2005, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [1][18] - The electronic, defense, telecommunications, and pharmaceutical sectors are showing high valuations at 97.9%, 83.8%, 82.3%, and 76.8% percentiles respectively since 2005 [1][18] Market Concentration and Securities Rate - Industry concentration levels in the current structural bull market remain below historical peaks, with the electronics sector reaching 16.1% as of August 22, 2025 [2][20] - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector's concentration is at 34.1%, still below its historical peak of 40%-45% [2][23] - The market's total market capitalization to GDP ratio is close to historical highs, with a 10% gap from the 2021 peak and a 43% gap from the 2015 peak [2][26] Market Outlook - The market's fundamentals are expected to show a quarterly decline, but there is potential for policy measures to support macroeconomic growth [3][28] - The liquidity outlook is optimistic, with DR007 at its lowest since 2018, indicating ample market liquidity [3][30] - The stock market is experiencing a steady increase in new account openings and private equity fund registrations, which may support market liquidity further [3][30][31] Sector Performance and Policy Support - The technology, finance, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors are expected to perform well, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [4][9] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are likely to catalyze growth in various sectors, including construction and technology [4][9] - The upcoming political meetings and economic planning sessions are anticipated to provide further clarity and potential support for market sentiment [4][29] Misconceptions About Market Liquidity - There is a common misconception that the influx of incremental funds from residents will directly lead to a market rally; however, historical data suggests that market trends are the leading indicators, not the funds themselves [6][41] - The correlation between the stock market's performance and the flow of funds indicates that market movements often precede changes in liquidity [6][42]

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 4.3%, 4.9%, and 8.7% respectively [1][10] - The bond market weakened, with an overall decline of 0.6%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 4.3bp, 10.3bp, and 8.3bp respectively [1][10] - The external markets also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.5% and major US indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, increasing by 1.8%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10] Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market is approaching a critical trading zone, with the Shanghai Index nearing the October 2024 trading volume of 3 trillion, indicating potential resistance to breaking through this level [2][22] - External risks are increasing, particularly regarding US-China tariff negotiations and potential sanctions from the EU against Chinese financial institutions [2][22] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on technology and anti-involution sectors, with particular attention to humanoid robotics and the broader AI industry [3][23] - The anti-involution strategy is expected to drive demand policies, suggesting investments in undervalued chemical blue-chip stocks, vitamins, phosphorus chemicals, TDI, and coking coal sectors [3][25] - The technology sector is highlighted for potential growth, especially with upcoming IPOs in humanoid robotics and increased capital expenditure in AI services [3][24] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address the current economic situation and may reinforce anti-involution policies, which could lead to rising inflation expectations and government bond yields [3][27] - The 10-year government bond yield has been on an upward trend, reaching approximately 1.73% as of late July, with expectations of continued increases [3][27][30]

Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in Q2, meeting expectations[1] - The industrial production grew by 6.2% year-on-year in Q2, with June showing a growth of 6.8%[1] - The service sector production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% year-on-year due to the impact of "two new" and "two heavy" projects and the real estate market[1] - Infrastructure investment growth for the first half of the year was 8.9% for broad scope and 4.6% for narrow scope (excluding power)[1] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 17.3% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, below the market expectation of 5.6%[2] - The average consumption growth for May and June was 5.6%, indicating a stable consumption level despite the drop in June[2] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%[2] - Cumulative exports for the first half of the year increased by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging external trade environment[2] Financial Sector - New social financing in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan, with a total of 22.8 trillion yuan for the first half, an increase of 4.7 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The balance of loans showed a year-on-year growth rate decline from 7.5% in January to 7.1% in June[3] Economic Outlook - Economic pressures may increase in the second half of 2025, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 projected to decline to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively[3] - The need for timely and effective incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.3%, 2.1%, and 6.6% respectively [1][13] - The bond market strengthened, with an overall increase of 0.3%, and government bond yields for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds decreasing by 11.0bp, 5.5bp, and 2.9bp respectively [1][13] - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in July, influenced by the gradual implementation of fiscal policies and the upcoming Politburo meeting [2][36] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy remains resilient, with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% year-on-year for Q2 and 5.3% for the first half of the year [4][53] - The export sector is experiencing a gradual decline, with the impact of tariffs expected to deepen, while domestic demand continues to support industrial production [2][53] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to focus on implementing previous policies rather than introducing new stimulus measures [4][53] Group 3: Sector Strategies - Investment strategies suggest focusing on low-position, rebound sectors, particularly in technology, real estate, and supply-side reform, which are expected to benefit from policy support [2][44] - The AI industry chain has shown performance, with domestic PCB and CPO sectors leading gains, although caution is advised due to potential adjustments in overseas markets [44][47] - Consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies, are expected to see positive impacts, including white goods and baby products [47][48] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is viewed as a critical window for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a reduction of 10-15bp [3][48] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has shown a downward trend, with a recent peak of 1.7% and a subsequent decline to around 1.63% [3][48] - The bond yield movements are closely aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals, indicating a potential rebound following any interest rate cuts [3][48]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]