2026 年 01 月 21 日 宏观经济 我国经济顶压前行，顺利完成全年目标 ——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 宏观点评 2025 年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，主要预期目标圆满实现。 四季度 GDP 同比增长 4.5%，全年增长 5%。2025 年四季度，受高基数 影响，实际 GDP 同比增长 4.5%，符合预期；名义 GDP 同比增长 3.8%，GDP 平减指数同比下降 0.7%。2025 年全年，实际 GDP 增长 5%，名义 GDP 增长 4%。全年经济目标顺利完成，这一方面因为出口韧性，净出口对 GDP 同比 拉动率达到约 1.6 个百分点，另一方面，财政大幅扩张且前置发力。 工业生产稳中有进，服务业生产维持较高增速。2025 年，工业生产增速 5.9%，略高于 2024 年的 5.8%，工业生产稳中有进。出口及"两重""两新" 对工业生产拉动较大。规模以上高技术制造业增加值比上年增长 9.4%，增速 较上年加快0.5个百分点。规模以上数字产品制造业增加值比上年增长9.3%， 增速较上年加快0.3个百分点。规模以上装备制造业增加值比上年增长9.2%， 增速较上年加快 1.5 个百分点。 ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 宏观经济 新增政策逐渐落地，经济环比改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2025.12.29—2026.01.04） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 A 股大势研判：上周市场整体窄幅震荡，主要宽基指数涨跌不一，上证 综指上涨 0.1%，沪深 300、创业板指分别下跌 0.6%、1.3%。日均成交金额 为 2.11 万亿元，较前周小幅放量。两融余额为 2.56 万亿元，较前周小幅上 升，但融资买入占比小幅下降。年前市场交投情绪温和修复，政策靠前发力， 题材轮动或成主流。海外方面，美联储新任主席人选公布在即，考虑到特朗 普对美联储降息的迫切诉求，或进一步强化弱美元预期。国内险资新规落地 后，增量资金即将入市，海内外流动性共振下，春季行情有望顺势启动。 A 股配置策略：商业航天、涨价有色金属及锂电材料有望成为主要进攻 方向，海外科技股映射品种、低位消费、周期与红利板块则有望轮动。商业 航天领域，2026 年有望实现密集发射，近期仍处于催化密集期。锂电材料行 业利好延续，可关注长协价格落地情况及排产数据。其他涨价品种中，化工 板块可继续关注有机硅、炼化、MDI。大消费板块，首推乳制品、白电等性 价比红 ...

External Environment - The US economy is expected to remain in an expansion phase in 2026, with a growth rate around 2.5%, exceeding its potential growth rate[2] - Inflation is a key concern for US voters, and trade relations with China are expected to stabilize temporarily before mid-term elections[2] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once but could also raise rates depending on economic conditions[12] China Policy - China's macro policy will focus on quality and efficiency, avoiding large-scale stimulus while leaving room for future risks[3] - The broad fiscal deficit is projected to expand slightly to around 12.5 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of 8.5%-9%[3] - Interest rates are expected to decrease by approximately 20 basis points, with reserve requirement ratios lowered by 25-50 basis points[3] China Economic Scenarios - **Optimistic Scenario**: Stable US-China trade relations lead to a GDP growth of over 5% and nominal growth above 4%[4] - **Neutral Scenario**: GDP growth is projected at 4.5%-5% with nominal growth around 4%, driven by a net export contribution of 1% to GDP[4] - **Cautious Scenario**: GDP growth may drop to around 4% with nominal growth at 3%, as net export contribution declines to 0.5%[4] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected fiscal and monetary policy effectiveness, challenges in stabilizing the real estate market, and increased geopolitical tensions[4]

Group 1: Overview of the Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry maintained stable revenue around 2.45 trillion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with quarterly revenue stabilizing at approximately 600 billion yuan [1][15] - The biotech sector is expected to achieve over 100 billion yuan in sales by 2025, marking it as a significant growth segment within the pharmaceutical industry [2] - The overall revenue for the pharmaceutical industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [15][19] Group 2: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The innovation drug sector has shown remarkable performance, with biotech companies experiencing over 70% revenue growth in 2023 and 2024, and maintaining around 42% growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][21] - The CXO industry is the fastest-growing sub-sector in terms of profit, with a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [20] - The total transaction value for license-out deals in the innovation drug sector reached 920 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, providing significant cash flow for domestic innovation drug companies [3][20] Group 3: International Expansion - The global market for innovative drugs is expanding, with license-out transactions expected to exceed 100 billion USD in 2025, capturing nearly half of the global pharmaceutical business development transaction volume [2] - The export of medical devices from China has shown a recovery trend, with a total export value of 355.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [4][7] Group 4: Blood Products Sector - The blood products industry is characterized by high barriers to entry and a stable pricing structure, with the top six companies accounting for 80% of domestic plasma collection [8] - Despite short-term supply-demand disturbances, the blood products sector remains a stable segment within the pharmaceutical industry [8][22] - The industry is currently experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, leading to increased market concentration [8] Group 5: Medical Devices - The domestic medical device bidding market showed a significant recovery, with a total market size exceeding 80 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.75% [4] - The recovery in international markets has also contributed to the growth of medical device exports, which are expected to continue their upward trend [4][7]

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]

Group 1: Macro and Asset Performance - In November, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.0%, the CSI 300 dropped by 4.0%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 8.4%, and the STAR 50 Index declined by 9.2% [1][11] - The bond market experienced a slight decline, with an overall drop of 0.1%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 1.8bp, 2.5bp, and 2.1bp respectively [1][21] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.7%, and major US stock indices also saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 dropping by 2.8%, 6.1%, and 3.5% respectively [1][21] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The central economic work conference in December is crucial for setting the tone for 2026 economic policies, which could lead to an independent market trend if macro and industrial policies exceed expectations [1][22] - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation without a clear main line, with recommendations to focus on the aviation sector, new consumption, and undervalued banking stocks [2][23] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from supply-side constraints and policy guidance, leading to improved profitability alongside low oil prices [2][23] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The overall outlook for government bond yields suggests a continued upward trend, influenced by domestic fundamentals and policy fluctuations [3][24] - The upcoming central economic work conference is anticipated to have a significant impact on interest rates, as yields typically price in next year's policies [3][26] - Despite a weak economic backdrop, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to maintain a strong position, rising from 1.79% to around 1.82% [3][29]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing the need for continuous effort and progressive development[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable economic foundation, with strengths in the economy, resilience, and potential for long-term growth[12] - The goal is to achieve significant progress in high-quality development, with a focus on technological self-reliance and strengthening the real economy[14] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Self-Reliance - The emphasis is on accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces, moving from merely having technology to achieving excellence and leadership[21] - Policies will focus on breaking through key core technologies and enhancing original innovation to seize future technological competition[22] - The aim is to create a robust national innovation system capable of producing disruptive technological achievements[21] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Economic Circulation - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic economic cycle, with specific measures to enhance consumer spending and investment in human capital[23] - The focus is on creating a closed-loop logic between improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption[24] - The meeting called for breaking down barriers to building a unified national market to unleash domestic demand potential[25] Group 4: High-Level Opening Up - The meeting stressed the need to expand high-level opening up and maintain a multilateral trade system, promoting reform and development through openness[27] - China aims to deepen institutional opening up, enhancing its economic resilience and competitiveness by aligning with international high standards[27] Group 5: Common Prosperity and Social Welfare - The meeting emphasized increasing efforts to improve people's livelihoods and advance common prosperity, ensuring coverage for all citizens[28] - Policies will focus on basic public services and strengthening social security for vulnerable groups[28] - The real estate sector is shifting towards high-quality development, focusing on meeting people's needs and improving product quality[28]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[1] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration[1] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The PPI showed no change month-on-month, indicating a halt in the downward trend for two consecutive months[2] - Prices in coal processing rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while black metal smelting and rolling industries saw a 0.2% increase[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals in price trends are attributed to central government measures since "9·24" aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting confidence[3] - Despite positive signals, there remains significant downward pressure on prices, particularly as investment and consumption data show signs of decline in the second half of the year[3] - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and effective policy resource utilization is emphasized to maintain growth momentum[3]

Group 1: Current Trade Tensions - Recent U.S. measures against China include a 50% tariff on cabinets and a 30% tariff on softwood furniture, effective from September 29[9] - China has announced export controls on rare earth materials, effective November 8, which could significantly impact U.S. industries reliant on these materials[10] - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, escalating trade tensions ahead of the APEC meeting[11] Group 2: Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China Trade Relations - One scenario suggests a temporary easing of tensions, potentially leading to a phased agreement during or before the APEC meeting, though full cancellation of rare earth controls is unlikely[18] - An alternative scenario indicates that trade friction may escalate, reducing the likelihood of reaching an agreement and potentially leading to a spiral of conflict[19] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - As of September, China's exports reached $328.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, surpassing market expectations of 5.7%[21] - The U.S. unemployment rate has slightly increased from 4% to 4.3%, indicating potential economic strain[16] - Market sentiment may shift towards defensive assets if trade tensions escalate, with a potential decline in stock market performance[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, particularly highlighting the recovery in the photovoltaic and wind energy segments [5]. Core Insights - The renewable energy sector is showing clear signs of recovery, with significant performance improvements in the photovoltaic and wind energy segments, while the energy storage sector continues to experience upward momentum [1][14]. - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a rebound in performance, driven by a surge in domestic demand and the implementation of policies to eliminate "involution" competition, leading to price stabilization [2][34]. - The wind energy sector is benefiting from improved bidding conditions, which are translating into revenue growth for companies within the industry [3][21]. - The grid equipment sector is experiencing stable growth, supported by a long-term increase in global grid investment [4][24]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The overall performance of the renewable energy sector has improved significantly in the first half of 2025, with a notable recovery in profits, particularly in the wind and energy storage segments [1][15]. - The photovoltaic segment is gradually recovering, with major components like silicon wafers and battery cells showing substantial growth, while auxiliary materials face pressure [1][21]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity expansion, with the proportion of ongoing projects relative to total assets decreasing [26]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector is seeing a recovery in performance, with significant growth in the main supply chain components, while auxiliary materials are under pressure [2][34]. - Domestic demand for photovoltaic products surged in the first half of 2025, leading to a historical high in new installations [2][48]. - The implementation of policies to address "involution" competition is accelerating the exit of outdated capacities from the market [2][34]. Wind Energy Sector - The wind energy sector is showing a clear recovery trend, with revenue growth across various segments, particularly in components like towers and bearings [3][21]. - The domestic wind energy prices have significantly increased compared to 2024, with bidding volumes continuing to grow [3][21]. Grid Equipment Sector - The grid equipment sector is maintaining stable growth, benefiting from a long-term upward trend in global grid investments [4][24]. - The performance of transmission and distribution equipment is particularly strong, with notable revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025 [22].