2025 年 08 月 27 日 投资策略 上证指数创 10 年新高，后市怎么看 上证指数 8 月中旬创 10 年新高，一举突破 3800 点，牛市氛围呼声日益 升高。从市场估值、领涨行业估值、行业集中度、证券化率几个角度来看， 目前读数均已达到相对高位，但距离历史高位仍有一定空间。 估值角度，宽基指数估值与领涨行业估值水平均已来到 2005 年以来 高位。上证指数、深证成指、沪深 300 指数 PE 估值已达到 2005 年以来 69.6%、 78.0%与 86.2%分位。电子、国防军工、通信、医药板块估值位于 2005 年以 来 97.9%、83.8%、82.3%、76.8%分位。表明相对历史表现而言，目前估值 已经处于高位，后续看涨空间相对有限。 行业拥挤度来看，结构性行情下行业拥挤度距离历史极值仍有一定空 间。2018 年以来结构性牛市中，单一板块集中度在 18%-20%之间，如 2019 年电子行业峰值达到 17.9%，2021 年茅指数为代表的核心资产牛市集中度达 到 18.1%。截至 8 月 22 日，电子行业集中度已经到达 16.1%。从 TMT 行情 整体占比来看，2018 年以来 TMT ...

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 4.3%, 4.9%, and 8.7% respectively [1][10] - The bond market weakened, with an overall decline of 0.6%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 4.3bp, 10.3bp, and 8.3bp respectively [1][10] - The external markets also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.5% and major US indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, increasing by 1.8%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10] Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market is approaching a critical trading zone, with the Shanghai Index nearing the October 2024 trading volume of 3 trillion, indicating potential resistance to breaking through this level [2][22] - External risks are increasing, particularly regarding US-China tariff negotiations and potential sanctions from the EU against Chinese financial institutions [2][22] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on technology and anti-involution sectors, with particular attention to humanoid robotics and the broader AI industry [3][23] - The anti-involution strategy is expected to drive demand policies, suggesting investments in undervalued chemical blue-chip stocks, vitamins, phosphorus chemicals, TDI, and coking coal sectors [3][25] - The technology sector is highlighted for potential growth, especially with upcoming IPOs in humanoid robotics and increased capital expenditure in AI services [3][24] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address the current economic situation and may reinforce anti-involution policies, which could lead to rising inflation expectations and government bond yields [3][27] - The 10-year government bond yield has been on an upward trend, reaching approximately 1.73% as of late July, with expectations of continued increases [3][27][30]

Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in Q2, meeting expectations[1] - The industrial production grew by 6.2% year-on-year in Q2, with June showing a growth of 6.8%[1] - The service sector production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points from Q1[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% year-on-year due to the impact of "two new" and "two heavy" projects and the real estate market[1] - Infrastructure investment growth for the first half of the year was 8.9% for broad scope and 4.6% for narrow scope (excluding power)[1] - Manufacturing investment growth was 7.5%, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 17.3% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first five months[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, below the market expectation of 5.6%[2] - The average consumption growth for May and June was 5.6%, indicating a stable consumption level despite the drop in June[2] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%[2] - Cumulative exports for the first half of the year increased by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging external trade environment[2] Financial Sector - New social financing in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan, with a total of 22.8 trillion yuan for the first half, an increase of 4.7 trillion yuan year-on-year[3] - The balance of loans showed a year-on-year growth rate decline from 7.5% in January to 7.1% in June[3] Economic Outlook - Economic pressures may increase in the second half of 2025, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 and Q4 projected to decline to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively[3] - The need for timely and effective incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.3%, 2.1%, and 6.6% respectively [1][13] - The bond market strengthened, with an overall increase of 0.3%, and government bond yields for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds decreasing by 11.0bp, 5.5bp, and 2.9bp respectively [1][13] - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in July, influenced by the gradual implementation of fiscal policies and the upcoming Politburo meeting [2][36] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy remains resilient, with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% year-on-year for Q2 and 5.3% for the first half of the year [4][53] - The export sector is experiencing a gradual decline, with the impact of tariffs expected to deepen, while domestic demand continues to support industrial production [2][53] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to focus on implementing previous policies rather than introducing new stimulus measures [4][53] Group 3: Sector Strategies - Investment strategies suggest focusing on low-position, rebound sectors, particularly in technology, real estate, and supply-side reform, which are expected to benefit from policy support [2][44] - The AI industry chain has shown performance, with domestic PCB and CPO sectors leading gains, although caution is advised due to potential adjustments in overseas markets [44][47] - Consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies, are expected to see positive impacts, including white goods and baby products [47][48] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is viewed as a critical window for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a reduction of 10-15bp [3][48] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has shown a downward trend, with a recent peak of 1.7% and a subsequent decline to around 1.63% [3][48] - The bond yield movements are closely aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals, indicating a potential rebound following any interest rate cuts [3][48]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]

Group 1: Inflation Data - Core CPI continues to rise, indicating steady internal demand recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Overall CPI in May decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Non-food CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting a steady performance in consumer prices[7] Group 2: Trade Data - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous month's 8.1%[14] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% in May, a decline that widened by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, despite expectations of recovery due to tariff reductions[14][15] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN countries grew by 6.2% and 14.8% respectively, indicating relative stability in trade with other regions[14] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Signs of weakening consumer momentum are evident, with some policy-supported categories showing price stagnation or decline[6][8] - High inventory levels among U.S. wholesalers and retailers suggest a lack of urgency to replenish stock, impacting China's export dynamics[15] - The need for counter-cyclical policies is emphasized to stabilize expectations and ensure steady economic performance amid external uncertainties[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the wind, energy storage, and grid equipment sectors, while indicating challenges for the photovoltaic sector [5]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with significant performance improvements in the wind and energy storage sectors, while the photovoltaic sector is under pressure [1][13]. - The supply-demand mismatch in the photovoltaic industry is gradually being alleviated, with prices entering a bottom range, suggesting potential for future improvement [2][35]. - The wind power sector shows strong bidding data and notable recovery in profitability across various segments [3][24]. - The grid equipment sector continues to benefit from stable global investment, indicating ongoing industry prosperity [4][26]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The electric new energy sector faced significant pressure in 2024, but signs of recovery began in Q1 2025, with revenues of 7,275.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [14]. - The overall industry valuation is at historical lows, reflecting market expectations of fundamental pressures [1][28]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector's main supply chain (silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules) experienced significant revenue declines of 20% to 40% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [24]. - The inverter segment showed recovery, with revenue growth of 12% and 43% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [24][53]. - Global photovoltaic installations are expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 15-20% [2]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power sector demonstrated a clear recovery in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth across various components, including a 543% increase in bearing segment profits [3][24]. - Domestic wind power prices have stabilized, and bidding volumes have increased significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][24]. Grid Equipment Sector - The grid equipment sector continues to show stable growth, benefiting from increased global grid investment, with revenue growth rates of 5% to 13% across various segments [4][25]. - The demand for grid equipment is expected to rise due to the increasing share of renewable energy sources [4][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover from a challenging 2024, with a projected revenue of 119 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for demand [2][9]. - The company has effectively reduced inventory levels, leading to a potential recovery in quarterly revenue [1][2]. - The brand maintains a strong market position, with the highest market share in various product categories, including liquid milk and infant formula [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 33.88%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.33%, a slight decrease of 0.84 percentage points [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.71% [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including liquid milk, dairy beverages, and infant formula, which has shown resilience in a challenging economic environment [3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and optimizing product freshness to enhance sales performance [2][3]. - The company plans to continue its high cash dividend policy, proposing a total cash dividend of 7.73 billion yuan for 2024, which represents 91.40% of its net profit [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance for raw milk in 2025, particularly in the third quarter due to seasonal demand [2]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 118.7 billion yuan, 124 billion yuan, and 130.2 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 10.7 billion yuan, 11.3 billion yuan, and 11.7 billion yuan [9][10].