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建筑材料5月行业数据点评:地产投资销售表现仍弱,核心城市预期有望先稳
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-18 06:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the construction materials industry [2] Core Insights - The real estate investment and sales performance remains weak, but expectations for core cities are likely to stabilize first [2] - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 18.80 trillion yuan from January to May 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, showing a slight narrowing in growth rate [4][7] - Real estate development investment totaled 4.06 trillion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with residential investment at 3.08 trillion yuan, down 10.6% [4][5] - The sales area of commercial housing was approximately 366 million square meters, down 20.3% year-on-year, with a sales amount of about 3.57 trillion yuan, down 27.9% [5][6] Summary by Sections Real Estate Demand - The fundamental demand remains under pressure, but core cities are expected to hit the bottom first. In May 2024, the sales area was about 74 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 12.24% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.06% [5][6] - The price index for newly built residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index fell by 7.5% [5][6] Real Estate Investment - The downward pressure on development investment remains significant, with new construction area down 24.2% year-on-year. However, the decline in new construction area has narrowed for three consecutive months [6][7] - From January to May 2024, the funds available to real estate developers were approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, down 24.3% year-on-year [6][15] Cement Industry - National cement production from January to May 2024 was 687 million tons, down 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed [5][8] - The demand for cement is expected to benefit from the stabilization of construction activities, driven by urban village renovations and government bond issuance [8][10] Glass Industry - The domestic float glass market saw a price increase, with the average price rising to 1693.06 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.82% increase [9][10] - The industry is expected to experience a balanced supply and demand situation, with significant housing delivery still pending [9][10] Infrastructure Investment - The issuance of special bonds by local governments reached 1.138 trillion yuan from January to May 2024, with a significant increase in issuance in May [7][8] - The government is expected to continue supporting economic recovery through infrastructure projects, which will positively impact the construction materials sector [7][8]
24年1-5月国家统计局房地产数据追踪:销售未见明显改善,投资持续承压
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-18 01:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market has not shown significant improvement in sales, and investment continues to face pressure [2] - Policy measures are being optimized to stimulate demand, including a reduction in down payment ratios and the establishment of a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing [7] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in residential sales has slightly narrowed, with May's sales volume at 0.67 trillion yuan, down 30.5% year-on-year [5][6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May, nationwide residential sales reached 0.62 million square meters, down 18.97% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 23.6% [5] - The sales scale for May was 0.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.36% and a cumulative decline of 30.5% [5] Development Investment - Development investment remains under pressure, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.10% in May, which has expanded compared to the previous month [7] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in residential construction area has reached 12.20%, with new starts in May at 0.48 million square meters, down 22.19% year-on-year [5][6] Financing Conditions - The cumulative year-on-year decline in funds available to real estate developers was 24.30% as of May, with personal mortgage loans down 40.20% [6][20] - Domestic loans accounted for 681 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, while pre-sales and deposits saw a significant drop of 36.70% [6]
煤炭行业月报:国内供给维持弱势,需求有望加速释放
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-18 01:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭开采 2024年06月17日 煤炭行业月报:国内供给维持弱 煤炭 势,需求有望加速释放 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm :ar y] 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 5月国内日均产量微降,进口环比减少。1)国内生产:5月,全国原煤产量3.84  邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 亿吨,同比下降0.8%;日均产量1238万吨,同比下降0.4%,环比微降0.05%。 薛磊 1-5月份,全国累计原煤产量18.58亿吨,同比下降3.0%。2)进口方面:5月, 资格编号:S0120524020001 国内煤炭进口量4381.6万吨,同比增长10.7%,环比下降3.2%;1-5月累计进口 邮箱:xuelei@tebon.com.cn 2.05亿吨,同比增长12.6%,累计增速收窄0.5pct。3)总供应量:5月供给合计 4.28 亿吨,同比微增 0.6%。5 月国内日均产量微降,往后看供给仍不乐观:1) 研究助理 国内方面:虽然 3 月底山西省要求稳产稳供,但全国煤炭日均产量并未提升。安 检升级常 ...
半导体行业点评:需求复苏+库存去化接近尾声,功率半导体否极泰来
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 14:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 半导体 2024年06月17日 需求复苏+库存去化接近尾声,功 半导体 率半导体否极泰来 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm :ar y] 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001  事件:2024 年 1 月起,各个功率半导体公司相继调价:三联盛全系列产品上调 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 10-20%、蓝彩电子全系列产品上调10-18%、高格芯微全线产品上调10-20%、捷 陈瑜熙 捷微电 TrenchMOS 上调 5-10%等。5-6 月,针对部分中低压产品,华润微扬杰等功 资格编号:S0120524010003 率大厂相继有张价/谈价动作。 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 我们认为功率半导体涨价反映了下游需求的逐步复苏,功率半导体市场边际好转。 市场表现  华虹代工产能吃紧,多家IDM功率厂商保持高稼动率。据华虹一季度业绩发布会, 半导体 沪深300 截至一季度末,华虹8英寸月产能达到39.1万片,总产能利用率为91.7%,较上 7% 0% 季度提升 7.6 个百分点。此外 ...
房地产行业周报:保障性住房再贷款持续推进,上海三批次土拍不设房地联动价
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 14:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 房地产 2024年06月17日 保障性住房再贷款持续推进,上海三 房地产 批次土拍不设房地联动价 优于大市(维持) 房地产行业周报(2024.6.10-6.14) 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 金文曦 投资要点: 资格编号:S0120522100001 邮箱:jinwx@tebon.com.cn  市场回顾 蔡萌萌 资格编号:S0120524050003 2024.6.10-6.14,上证综指数下跌0.61%,沪深300指数下跌0.91%,房地产板块下 邮箱:caimm@tebon.com.cn 跌1.47%,房地产板块跑输上证综指0.86个百分点,跑输沪深300指数0.56个百分 点。年初至今,上证综指上涨 1.94%,沪深 300 指数上涨 3.22%,房地产板块下跌 研究助理 11.37%,房地产板块跑输上证综指13.3个百分点,跑输沪深300指数14.58个百分 点。 上周,重点关注的A股地产股中*ST中迪、万通发展涨幅居前,华侨城A、绿地控股 跌幅较大;重点关注的H股地产股中远洋集团、中国奥园涨幅居前;重点关注的港股 市场表现 物 ...
宏观周报:国内区域一体化发展,美国降息仍需等待
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 06:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 年 月 日 | --- | --- | |------------|----------------------------------| | | 2024 06 16 | | | | | 宏观周报 | 国内区域一体化发展,美国降息仍需 | | | 等待 | | 证券分析师 | | | -- | 宏观周报( 20240610-20240616 ) | 程强 资格编号:S0120524010005 邮箱:chengqiang@tebon.com.cn 陈梦洁 资格编号:S0120524030002 邮箱:chenmj3@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 核心观点:近期长三角三省一市一体化发展高层会议召开,我们认为具有较强的指 导意义,一是要实现高质量发展,未来一体化发展或是破壁的最优解,二是基建交 通领域或是一体化发展的先行军,三是产业协同是核心要义。海外方面,6 月 FOMC 会议继续按兵不动,FEDWATCH 工具显示首次降息时点仍为 9 月,维持我们认为 年内仍有降息可能的判断。宏观数据上,中美股市总市值/GDP 差距进一步拉开, 从 2016 年的 ...
亚信科技240617
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 05:09
Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company or Industry Involved - The discussion pertains to a specific company, focusing on its operational profit adjustments and financial performance. Core Points and Arguments - The company reported an adjusted operating profit, which excludes impacts from commercial and intangible assets [1] - A special dividend was declared, and the effects of dividend taxes were also considered in the adjustments [1] - Non-operational items were removed from the financial analysis to provide a clearer picture of the company's performance [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The adjustments made aim to enhance the understanding of the company's core operational efficiency by eliminating the noise from non-operational factors [1]
海外市场周报:警惕地缘波动加剧
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 04:00
图 10: 全球主要股票市场估值 50 100 90 45 40 80 35 70 60 30 25 50 20 40 � 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 恒生指数 恒生科技 南VN30指数 日 经 225 琼斯工业指数 标 普 500 |斯达克指数 深300 西哥MXX 韩国综合指数 洲标普200 国富时100 国CAC40 度 SENSEX3 国台湾加权指责 & IBOVESPA指 ■PE_TTM (2024/6/14) ◆十年PE_TTM分位数(%,右) [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2024 年 06 月 16 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 海外市场周报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 警惕地缘波动加剧 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 薛威 资格编号:S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号 ...
周观点:出口仍是当前景气主线,关注Q2低估值稳增长标的
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 02:02
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 2024 年 06 月 16 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------|----------------------------------| | | | | 轻工制造 | | | | 周观点:出口仍是当前景气主线,关注 | | 优于大市 (维持) | Q2 低估值稳增长标的 | 证券分析师 投资要点: 毕先磊 资格编号:S0120524030001 邮箱:bixl3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 0% -6% -12% -18% -24%28-06 2023-10 -31% 相关研究 1.《周观点:家居聚焦 Q2 稳增长标 的,二轮车监管趋严龙头受益,宠 物消费 618 成绩亮眼》, 2024.6.10 2.《周观点:地产政策多箭齐发, 家居估值修复仍未结束,摩托出口 增速亮眼》,2024.5.19 3.《周观点:地产政策密集出台, 继续推荐家居板块,电动车规范落 地利好合规龙头》,2024.5.12 4.《周观点:Q1 业绩陆续披露,布 局超预期背后的确定性》, 2024.4.28 5. 《致欧科技:全 ...
AI语音交互趋势下,高信噪比MEMS麦克风迎来新机遇
Tebon Securities· 2024-06-17 02:02
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电子 2024年06月16日 AI 语音交互趋势下,高信噪比 电子 MEMS 麦克风迎来新机遇 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001 [投Tab资le_要Su点mm:ar y] 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号:S0120524010003  事件:2024年6月11日,苹果在线上举行的2024苹果全球开发者大会上发布了 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 全新升级的人工智能语音助手Siri。新版Siri不仅可以执行任务、理解上下文,还 可以调用App并与其深度交互。 市场表现 在AI时代浪潮下,iphone新版语音助手Siri代表着对人机语音交互需求的提升, 电子 沪深300 而升级麦克风功能是实现AI技术应用的关键一环。因此,我们看好人机交互能力 6% 提升下MEMS麦克风产业链机遇。 0% -6% -12% MEMS 麦克风是基于微机电技术制造的麦克风,封装尺寸较小,抗电噪声性能和 -18%  -24%2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 ...