证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 结汇需求或开始释放 ——2025 年 5 月外汇储备数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 估值效应： 交易因素： 预计 5 月除外资流动外的银行结售汇逆差和其他购汇用汇需求等合计导致外储增 加 130 亿美元左右。从贸易差额看，4 月"对等关税"落地后当月贸易差额有所下 降，虽然 5 月中美联合声明发布，但考虑到订单沟通恢复等需要时间，预计 5 月 贸易差额仍可能下降，从贸易商结售汇来看，去年下半年以来贸易顺差多数时期较 高，尤其是 2024 年 12 月、2025 年 1 月和 3 月贸易顺差均超过了 1000 亿美元， 而与此相对，银行结售汇差却从去年 12 月起持续为负，或指向企业结汇需求累积， 伴随着 5 月人民币汇率升回 7.2 附近，贸易商"持汇待涨"的心态或收敛，结汇需 求有望释放，进而推动 5 月银行结售汇差回正。此外，结售汇差还受到 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the current macroeconomic environment, highlighting three core influencing factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts [2][8][12] - It discusses the political new cycle between China and the US, noting the strategic initiatives from the Trump administration aimed at reshaping the global distribution system, which may lead to increased pressure on China [9][10][11] - The report suggests that China's economic growth can achieve the 5% target for 2025, supported by manufacturing investment and broad infrastructure projects countering real estate downturns [12][13] Group 2 - The report identifies the need for a dual approach in asset allocation, focusing on both offensive and defensive strategies, particularly in a low inflation environment that supports resilient returns [14] - It highlights the significance of technology as a focal point in the great power competition, with opportunities in domestic upstream substitution and AI applications [14] - The report notes the importance of domestic policy variables, including mechanisms for stabilizing the market and the impact of new public fund regulations on future investment growth [14] Group 3 - The report outlines the expected resilience of "redemption" assets in a low inflation context, suggesting that emerging consumption trends should be prioritized for investment [14] - It discusses the steady growth of wealth management products and the decline in deposit rates, which are expected to support the bond market and similar assets [14] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply-demand dynamics in commodities, particularly in emerging industries and raw material adjustments [14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in polyurethane and is transitioning into a new materials platform enterprise, having expanded its business from MDI production to various chemical sectors [8] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13.03 billion yuan due to impairment losses and increased costs [4][14] - The company is expected to improve its asset quality and profitability in the future as it completes its impairment provisions [4] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.5% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year but an increase of 25.0% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s main business segments, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, showed varying growth rates, with sales volumes increasing by 15.3%, 15.9%, and 27.7% respectively in 2024 [4][14] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing several projects, including a 70,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion expected to be operational by Q2 2026 and a new TDI facility of 33,000 tons/year expected to start production in May 2025 [4][14] - The company is also forming a joint venture to invest in a 1.6 million tons/year specialty polyolefins project, which is anticipated to enhance its international presence [4][14] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.88 billion yuan, 17.15 billion yuan, and 19.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 23.6%, and 16.5% [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.42 yuan, 5.46 yuan, and 6.36 yuan for the same years [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a slight decline in domestic gold prices by 0.42% during the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025. The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% is anticipated to create uncertainty in global trade, which may support gold prices [7] - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, influenced by the tariff issues, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 6.5%, and 1.8% respectively [7] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, have increased, indicating a potential growth in demand driven by manufacturing recovery [7] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium and lithium hydroxide prices down by 3.4% and 2.7% respectively, highlighting a need to monitor future demand for energy metals [7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing trade uncertainties [7] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have mostly decreased, with significant drops in tin and nickel prices [30][7] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, while tungsten prices have also shown upward trends, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [31][34] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, with carbonate lithium down by 3.4% and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide down by 2.7%, suggesting a need for careful observation of future demand trends [37] 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline of 2.40%, with various sub-sectors such as precious metals and industrial metals also experiencing downturns [38] 3. Key Events of the Week - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which is expected to impact the industrial metals market significantly [44]

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[5] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[10] - The economy is in an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[10] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the preparation of incremental tools to address short- and medium-term economic challenges[11] - The asset allocation strategy suggests a high probability of A-share market fluctuations, emphasizing structural opportunities and a "barbell" investment approach[11] Company Performance Highlights - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved a revenue of CNY 8.546 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, with a net profit of CNY 713 million, up 12.49%[12] - Huaitong (688219.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 6.088 billion in 2024, a 13.81% increase, and a net profit of CNY 194 million, up 32.04%[16] - Haige Communication (002465.SZ) is set to launch the "Jiutian" drone, which has a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons and a range of 7000 km, enhancing its market position in low-altitude economy[20] Industry Trends - The chemical industry is seeing stable profitability with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, particularly in the modified plastics sector[17] - The IVD sector is experiencing steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2019 to 2023, driven by advancements in technology and product offerings[26] - The demand for modified plastics is expected to rise due to the ongoing trends in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with a projected increase in production of 6.95 billion units of major appliances in 2024, up 7.4% year-on-year[17] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and volatility in raw material prices[8] - The low-altitude economy's development may not meet expectations, and competition in the drone market is intensifying[24]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in polyurethane and is transitioning into a new materials platform enterprise, having expanded its business scope significantly since its inception in 1978 [8] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13.03 billion yuan due to impairment losses and increased costs [4][10] - The company is expected to improve its asset quality and profitability in the future as it completes its impairment provisions [4] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.5% [4][10] - In Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year but an increase of 25.0% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s main business segments, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, showed varying growth rates, with sales volumes increasing by 15.3%, 15.9%, and 27.7% respectively in 2024 [4][10] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing several construction projects, including a 700,000-ton/year expansion in Fujian expected to be operational by Q2 2026, and a new 330,000-ton/year TDI facility expected to start production in May 2025 [4][10] - The company is also forming a joint venture to invest in a 1.6 million-ton/year specialty polyolefin project, which is anticipated to enhance its international presence [4][10] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.88 billion yuan, 17.15 billion yuan, and 19.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 23.6%, and 16.5% [4][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.42 yuan, 5.46 yuan, and 6.36 yuan for the same years [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to see a long-term bullish trend despite a slight decline in domestic gold prices by 0.42% during the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025. The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% is anticipated to create uncertainty in global trade, which may support gold prices in the long run [7][44] - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, influenced by the tariff increase, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 6.5%, and 1.8% respectively [7][30] - Small metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide have seen price increases, while tungsten prices have also risen, indicating a potential steady growth in demand for tungsten in manufacturing [7][31][34] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, have experienced price declines, with lithium carbonate prices down by 3.4% and 42.3% year-on-year [7][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have slightly decreased, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing trade uncertainties [7][10] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have mostly decreased, with significant drops in tin and nickel prices [7][30] 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing demand [7][31][34] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, indicating a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the short term [7][36] 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline of 2.40%, with various sub-sectors also experiencing losses [38] 3. Key Events Review - The announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum by President Trump is a significant event impacting the non-ferrous metals market [44]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant rebound in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with European SAF FOB prices reaching $1919.81 per ton as of June 3, 2025, marking a 7.44% increase from the previous week and a 9.90% increase from the historical low on May 14, 2025 [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic SAF producers, particularly 嘉澳环保 (Jiaao Environmental Protection), to benefit from improved pricing and export opportunities following the approval of export licenses [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The report notes a market performance decline of 26% for the basic chemical sector compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3] Price Trends - The report details the price trends for raw materials used in SAF production, indicating a rise in procurement prices for waste cooking oil and grease, which supports the upward price trend for SAF [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the supply risks associated with SAF production, noting that less than 30% of SAF projects have reached final investment decisions, leading to potential supply shortages [7] Regulatory Environment - The report mentions the high compliance costs associated with international SAF regulations, which could provide a competitive advantage for domestic producers like 嘉澳环保 due to their cost-effectiveness [7] Company Focus - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as 嘉澳环保, 海新能科 (Haineng Energy), and others as they are positioned to benefit from the evolving SAF market [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant rebound in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with European SAF FOB prices reaching $1919.81 per ton as of June 3, 2025, marking a 7.44% increase from the previous week and a 9.90% increase from the historical low on May 14, 2025 [4][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic SAF producers, particularly 嘉澳环保 (Jiaao Environmental Protection), to benefit from improved pricing and export opportunities following the approval of export licenses [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a market performance trend with a range from -26% to +26% over the specified periods [3] Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss the advancements in SAF applications and the impact of policies on the biodiesel industry [4] Investment Highlights - The report notes that the procurement prices for waste oils have increased, which supports the upward trend in SAF prices. For instance, the average price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) rose by 5.2% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, and the average price of waste oil increased by 6.7% in the same period [7] - The report indicates that less than 30% of SAF projects have reached final investment decisions, leading to potential supply risks as production facilities typically require 3-5 years to scale up [7] - The report mentions that 嘉澳环保 has received approval for SAF exports, allowing it to produce 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel annually, marking a significant step for domestic SAF producers [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing robust growth, supported by policies, funding, talent return, and engineering advantages. The number of original innovative drug pipelines has surged from 124 in 2015 to 704 in 2024, ranking first globally. The proportion of self-developed first-in-class (FIC) innovative drugs entering clinical trials has increased from 9 in 2015 to 120 in 2024, exceeding 30% globally [5][8][11]. - Business Development (BD) activities among Chinese pharmaceutical companies have significantly increased, with total transaction amounts reaching $51.9 billion in 2024, a 26% year-on-year growth. The average upfront payment also rose by 17% to $4.1 billion [5][13][16]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development phase of Chinese innovative drugs and suggests focusing on domestic companies with FIC/BIC pipelines [5][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drug BD Surge - The report highlights the transition of Chinese companies from imitation to original innovation, with a notable increase in the number of FIC drugs [5][8]. - The BD activities have diversified, with a significant rise in the number of transactions involving antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and small nucleic acid drugs [16][24]. 2. Market Performance Review - For the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30%. Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 6.61%, also surpassing the CSI 300 index by 9.02% [28][30]. - The top-performing stocks during this period included Shuyou Pharmaceutical (60.41%), Huason Pharmaceutical (41.97%), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (35.91%) [5][28]. 3. Monthly Investment Portfolio - Recommended stocks in the small molecule sector include Yifang Bio, Haishike, and Gilead Pharmaceuticals. In the large molecule sector, suggested stocks include Shuyou Pharmaceutical, Kexing Bio, and Xintai [5][24].