Market Overview - The major indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component down 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index down 6.15% during the week of November 17-21, 2025[6] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan the previous week[6] E-commerce in Southeast Asia - The e-commerce market in Southeast Asia is evolving towards a more mature and compliant structure, with a projected GMV of $128.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth[16] - Indonesia remains the largest market, accounting for 44% of the total GMV in Southeast Asia, although its growth rate slowed to 5% in 2024[17] - Content-driven e-commerce is emerging as a key growth driver, with live-streaming e-commerce expected to reach $17.6 billion in GMV, representing 14% of the total e-commerce market in the region[27] High-end Manufacturing: Power Batteries - Global demand for power batteries is expected to exceed 1 TWh in 2024, with electric vehicles contributing over 85% of this demand, reaching 950 GWh, a 25% increase year-on-year[29] - China's power battery production capacity is projected to grow by 41.49% in 2025, reaching 548.5 GWh, aligning closely with the sales of new energy vehicles[35] - The industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and technological upgrades, driven by stricter regulations and self-discipline among leading companies[40] Hard Technology: Storage Prices - Storage prices are on the rise, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices increasing by 158% and 307% respectively since September 2025, leading to a contraction in transaction volumes[41] - The anticipated increase in smartphone and laptop costs due to rising storage prices is estimated to be around 5-7% in 2026, with potential impacts on demand[42] Health Sector: Small Nucleic Acids - The global market for RNAi therapies is projected to grow from $3.459 billion in 2024 to $25.195 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 39.2%[49] - Over 20 small nucleic acid drugs have been approved globally, with nearly 170 projects in clinical stages, indicating a robust pipeline in oncology and chronic disease treatment[49]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3836.77 points, a slight increase of 0.05% [6] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12585.08 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.31% to 2929.04 points, indicating a strong performance in the small-cap sector [6] - The total market turnover was 1.74 trillion, reflecting a decrease of approximately 12.3% from the previous trading day, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest [6] Sector Performance - The military and AI application sectors remained active, with notable gains in related stocks such as China Shipbuilding and commercial aerospace, which rose by 6.41% and 5.78% respectively [5] - AI applications saw a boost from updates in Google's Gemini 3.0 Pro Image model and Alibaba's "Qianwen" app, indicating a shift from concept to practical application [5] - The lithium mining and new energy sectors continued to adjust, with the lithium index dropping by 4.93%, reflecting concerns over supply and demand dynamics [5][11] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a slight increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.15% [10] - The overall funding environment remained loose, with the central bank conducting a 3387 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [10] - The upcoming PMI data will be crucial for assessing market expectations regarding monetary policy and interest rates [10] Commodity Market - The commodity index rebounded, with the South China Commodity Index closing at 2516.25 points, up 0.55% [10] - The market showed structural differentiation, with energy and chemical sectors leading gains, while precious metals and new energy materials faced downward pressure [10] - Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, influenced by increased trading fees and supply recovery expectations from major producers [9][11] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include attractive dividend yields in the dividend sector, accelerated application of AI technologies, and potential recovery in consumer spending due to currency appreciation [12] - The report suggests a cautious approach to equity markets due to external factors such as U.S. interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45% at 3834.89 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices dropped 3.41% and 4.02%, respectively. The total market turnover reached 1.98 trillion, a 15.1% increase from the previous day, indicating a panic sell-off among investors [4][6]. Stock Market Analysis - The stock market sentiment is low, leading to a broad-based decline. Nearly 5100 stocks fell, intensifying short-term adjustment pressure. The lithium battery sector was particularly hard hit, with the lithium mining index dropping 9.67% due to the impact of falling lithium carbonate futures [4][6]. - Some sectors, such as shipbuilding and aquaculture, showed resilience, with respective increases of 3.51% and 0.65%. This may be attributed to heightened tensions in Sino-Japanese relations and expectations of accelerated commercialization of AI content generation technology [6][10]. Bond Market Analysis - The bond market continued its adjustment, with long-term bonds showing weakness. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.31%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts also saw slight declines. The overall market reflects a "long-end deep adjustment, short-end stability" characteristic [10]. - The central bank maintained a net injection of liquidity, conducting a 375 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, keeping the operation rate at 1.40%. The Shibor overnight rate fell by 4.4 basis points to 1.32%, indicating effective liquidity management by the central bank [10]. Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market exhibited widespread declines, with the Nanhua Commodity Index dropping 0.76%. Lithium carbonate futures hit the limit down, falling 9.00%, while silver and gold also saw declines of 3.70% and 1.40%, respectively [10]. - The global gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons, reflecting pressure on precious metals due to the declining expectations of Fed rate cuts and a strengthening dollar. However, the long-term trend of central banks purchasing gold remains intact, suggesting potential upward opportunities for precious metals [10][12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift towards defensive themes in the short term due to the downward adjustment of Fed rate cut expectations, which may continue to pressure risk assets. It is recommended to balance investments in dividend stocks, consumer sectors, and brokerage firms, while monitoring policy drivers and international commodity prices [11][12].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 11 月 21 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 薛威 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 迟到的非农，有限的指引 ——2025 年 9 月美国就业数据点评 资格编号：S0120523080002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：中美博弈烈度超预期；地缘政治危机超预期；全球经济承压超预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 9 月就业数据。9 月新增非农 11.9 万人，大幅超出预 期值 5.1 万人，主要受医疗保健、食品服务等行业的拉动；8 月份新增非农从 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人；失业率上行至 4.4%；小 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Nature and Importance - The essence of interest rates is the return on capital, influenced by time value and risk compensation[9] - A reasonable interest rate comparison is essential for effective resource allocation and monetary policy transmission[12] - Historical examples of unreasonable interest rate comparisons include deposit rates exceeding loan rates and abnormal yield curves in bond markets[13] Group 2: Central Bank's Focus on Interest Rate Relationships - The central bank emphasizes five key relationships to enhance monetary policy transmission: policy rates vs market rates, asset vs liability rates, different asset yields, term structure of rates, and risk-adjusted rates[36] - The central bank aims to transition from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy, improving transmission efficiency and directing resources to the real economy[39] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Rate Comparisons - Investors should consider interest rate comparisons to assess asset allocation value and attractiveness[40] - Significant differences between stock dividend yields and government bond yields can indicate undervaluation of equities[43] - Low rental yields in real estate compared to risk-free rates suggest a lack of attractiveness for property investments[26] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, global interest rate trends deviating from forecasts, and unexpected geopolitical risks[46]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a decline on November 20, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% to 3931.05 points, and other indices such as the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also showing declines of 0.76% and 1.12% respectively [8][9] - The overall market sentiment remains low, with trading volume at 1.72 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day's 1.74 trillion yuan [8][9] - The banking sector showed strong performance, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including new measures announced in Foshan to promote healthy development [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed overall fluctuations, with the 30-year bond contract dropping by 0.21% to 115.870 yuan, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases [15] - The People's Bank of China maintained a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a continued loose monetary policy [15] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for six consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stable expectations in the bond market [15] Commodity Market - The commodity market saw a majority of declines, with significant drops in energy products and black metals, while lithium carbonate prices surged past 100,000 yuan due to strong demand from the battery sector [11][15] - The demand for lithium carbonate has been robust, with a year-on-year increase in consumption of approximately 44.5% in September, driven by high production rates in the power battery and energy storage sectors [15] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment themes, including dividends, artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, domestic chips, and robotics, all showing potential for growth [17] - The focus on policy-driven defensive sectors and the anticipated recovery in consumer spending are emphasized as key areas for investment [18] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced portfolio with an emphasis on dividend stocks and sectors benefiting from structural trends, while keeping an eye on international commodity prices [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of the satellite internet industry, with significant investments and partnerships enhancing its capabilities [5][8] - The company has a strong foundation in traditional cellular network infrastructure and is now integrating into global satellite internet constellations, which may lead to substantial revenue growth [8] - The report highlights the company's involvement in multiple satellite internet initiatives and its compatibility with existing satellite systems, indicating a strategic advantage [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a noted decline of 34% over the specified period [3] Financial Data and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,599 million, 1,968 million, and 2,326 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 121 million, 148 million, and 217 million yuan [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.23 yuan in 2025 to 0.41 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [8][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 22.2% in 2024 to 27.0% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] Investment Insights - The company is actively participating in the development of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, which is expected to drive long-term value creation [5][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for the company to capitalize on the increasing demand for satellite internet services, particularly as it aligns with major industry players and technological advancements [6][8]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to 3946.74 points, while overall market sentiment remains low, indicated by 4173 stocks declining compared to 1196 stocks rising [6][7] - The trading volume decreased by approximately 10.4% from the previous day, totaling 1.74 trillion yuan, reflecting significant market divergence [6][7] - The insurance and banking sectors provided notable support to the index, with the insurance sector index increasing by 2.42% and major banks like China Bank rising nearly 4% [7] Bond Market - The bond market saw a comprehensive decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.41% to 116.09 yuan, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts also fell [12] - The central bank maintained a loose monetary policy, conducting a 310.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to cover maturing amounts, indicating a significant increase in net injection compared to the previous day [12] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations while maintaining a long-term loose stance, with the core logic being a supportive funding environment [12] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed a mixed performance, with the South China commodity index rising by 0.62%, driven by increases in lithium carbonate and industrial silicon prices, which rose by 4.97% and 4.68% respectively [9][12] - The black coal and coke sectors continued to show weakness, with prices declining by 2.81% and 1.62%, respectively, while the focus remains on supply stability amid seasonal demand [12] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support prices in the lithium carbonate and dual silicon sectors, with potential production cuts being discussed in industry meetings [13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious approach in the current market environment, with a focus on defensive sectors driven by policy, particularly in insurance and banking stocks, which are seen as undervalued [7][15] - The upcoming manufacturing PMI and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are critical indicators to watch, as weak PMI may lead to increased focus on policy-driven defensive sectors [8][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring international commodity prices and domestic economic data to inform investment decisions [15]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% and the ChiNext Index down 3.01% during the week of November 10-14, 2025. The average daily trading volume was 2.04 trillion yuan, slightly up from the previous week [7][8]. Consumer Sector - The global e-commerce market has seen an overall increase in e-commerce penetration, with a CAGR of 15.5% over the past five years. However, the U.S. e-commerce market is entering a phase of slower growth, with a projected penetration rate of 23.5% by 2025 [18][21]. - The U.S. e-commerce landscape is dominated by a few key players, with Amazon and Walmart contributing over 50% of market growth in 2024. Platforms like Temu and SHEIN are facing challenges due to the end of the small package tax exemption policy [25][28]. Health Sector - The flu is on the rise in China, with the percentage of flu-like illness (ILI) cases reported at 5.5% in southern provinces and 6.1% in northern provinces as of the 45th week of 2025. This trend is expected to increase demand for medical services and treatments [30][31]. - Companies involved in flu vaccine production, antiviral drugs, and protective equipment are likely to benefit from the rising flu cases. Notable companies include Jindike, Baike Biological, and Huashan Biological [33][38]. Hard Technology Sector - The electronic industry reported a total revenue of 1.19 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 895.61 billion yuan, up 47.89% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [35][36]. - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is experiencing growth due to increased utilization rates in downstream wafer fabs. Companies like Huahong and SMIC reported high capacity utilization rates in Q3 2025 [36][37]. Advanced Manufacturing Sector - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from a phase of overcapacity to a rebalancing stage, driven by strong demand for power and energy storage batteries. This sector has undergone a complete industrial cycle, moving from expansion to inventory clearance and now to demand recovery [5].

Production Sector - Industrial output growth in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September, and below the market expectation of 5.52%[3] - The service sector production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decline from 5.6% in September[3] - Export growth plummeted from 8.3% to -1.1%, significantly impacting industrial performance[3] Consumption Sector - Retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly above the market expectation but indicating weak consumption momentum[4] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in appliances and automobiles, showed significant decline due to weak income expectations and a sluggish real estate market[4] - Service consumption remained stable but lacked strong support for overall recovery[4] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment fell to -1.7% year-on-year for January to October, a notable drop from -0.5% in the previous period, indicating a clear downward trend[5] - Manufacturing investment decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, with October showing a monthly decline of -6.7%, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[5] - Real estate investment plummeted by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from -13.9% in September, continuing to be the largest drag on overall investment[5] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in October indicates a significant decline in demand, confirming a "high in the front, low in the back" trend for the year[3] - The forecast for Q4 suggests continued economic pressure, with a likelihood of maintaining an annual growth target of around 5% if Q4 growth reaches 4.64% year-on-year[3] - Ongoing low inflation and weak demand necessitate sustained policy support, particularly in fiscal measures and income expansion[3]