Demand Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total market value of publicly held U.S. Treasury securities is $26.88 trillion, with a face value of $28.45 trillion[15] - The main holders of U.S. Treasuries include overseas investors (33.5%), broad-based mutual funds (18.7%), the Federal Reserve (14.3%), households and nonprofits (10.6%), and state and local governments (6.0%)[17] Overseas Holdings - Since 1996, overseas investors have consistently held over 30% of U.S. Treasuries, but this dropped below 60% for the first time in July 2024[21] - Japan and China have historically been the largest foreign holders, but both have recently reduced their holdings, with Japan's holdings around $1.1 to $1.3 trillion and China's down to $757.2 billion[22][23] Duration Preferences - As of June 2024, foreign official institutions hold U.S. Treasuries with a weighted average maturity (WAM) of approximately 5.3 years, while private investors have a WAM of about 7.3 years[27] - Approximately 28% of overseas holdings are concentrated in the 0-2 year maturity range, with over 60% maturing within 5 years, indicating a preference for shorter durations among foreign official accounts[27] Auction Dynamics - In June 2024, domestic demand supported the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y maturities, while demand for 3Y, 7Y, and 30Y maturities declined, suggesting a shift in overseas interest towards certain mid- to long-term bonds[6] Future Demand Outlook - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase the U.S. federal deficit significantly, with an estimated $4.1 trillion increase in debt by 2034, potentially raising net supply pressure by several trillion dollars[6] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain structurally stable but may see a retreat from overseas investors, while domestic demand will likely remain passive and stable[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., and deteriorating fiscal prospects leading to unsustainable federal debt levels[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery in demand for photoinitiators driven by the continuous growth in the downstream PCB industry, with various grades of photoinitiators seeing price increases [5] - The global PCB market is expected to recover, with a projected total output value of USD 73.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5] - The concentration of production capacity in the photoinitiator industry is increasing, leading to a more favorable supply-side environment for leading companies [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a significant price increase for various grades of photoinitiators, with the 907 grade price at CNY 88/kg, up 19% year-to-date [5] Demand Side - The demand for photoinitiators is driven by their critical role in photopolymerization systems, with applications in various sectors including electronics, coatings, and healthcare [5] - The global PCB market value was USD 81.74 billion in 2022, declining to USD 69.52 billion in 2023, but is expected to rebound in 2024 [5] Supply Side - China is the world's largest producer and exporter of photoinitiators, with a significant portion of global production capacity concentrated in leading firms [5] - The report notes that leading companies are expanding their production capacities, while weaker firms may face elimination as industry concentration increases [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jiu Ri New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Strongly New Materials as potential investment opportunities [5]

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

Group 1: Current Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest level since 2024[10] - The growth rate of total retail sales from January to May 2025 was 5%, significantly higher than the 3.5% growth in 2024[10] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to impressive growth in specific sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 53% year-on-year in May[12] Group 2: Quality Consumption Era - China has entered a quality consumption era, where consumers prioritize product quality over price, even if it requires more time and effort to find high-quality products[18] - The demand for quality consumption is closely linked to the transparency of product quality information and the reduction of trial-and-error consumption[18] - Successful products like "Nezha" and "Labubu" illustrate the importance of quality supply in creating demand, highlighting that good supply can effectively stimulate consumption[24] Group 3: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to stabilize income expectations and improve employment quality, focusing on policies that support the real estate and stock markets[34] - The government should encourage the creation of high-quality supply to drive demand, aligning with the emphasis on "leading new demand with high-quality supply"[33] - Key areas for policy focus include stabilizing the real estate market to counter negative wealth effects, enhancing stock market stability to improve residents' financial income, and ensuring employment quality to stabilize income expectations[34][37][39]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend despite a recent 2.8% decline in domestic spot gold prices. The geopolitical instability and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to provide lasting support for gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with copper prices experiencing a 1.3% increase, while aluminum prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in copper exchange inventories has raised concerns about potential short squeezes, which may lead to increased price volatility [4]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have seen an upward trend, while tungsten prices remained stable. The recovery in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for tungsten in cutting and wear-resistant tools [4]. - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have risen. The demand for energy metals is being closely monitored for future growth [4]. - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE copper price is at 79,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.3%. LME copper price is at 10,051 USD/ton, with a 3.5% weekly increase [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased, while tungsten prices have remained stable [28]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have increased. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, and the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 5.11% during the reporting period [35]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights ongoing competition in the copper market, with significant pressure on buyers due to declining inventories [42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics for photoinitiators, with a potential recovery in market conditions [4] - The report emphasizes the concentration of production in China, which has become the world's leading producer and exporter of photoinitiators, accounting for 13.21% of global exports in 2023 [4] - The report suggests that the price of photoinitiators is likely to rebound due to expanding applications in UV curing technology and a shift towards environmentally friendly solutions [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -17% to 26% from July 2024 to March 2025, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Supply Side - China is the main production country for photoinitiators, with a concentrated industry structure favoring leading companies [4] - Major domestic producers include Jiurui New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and others, with capacities of 23,000 tons, 17,000 tons, and 13,000 tons respectively [4] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing consolidation, with smaller players facing challenges due to safety and environmental compliance issues [4] Demand Side - The report discusses the expanding application areas for UV curing technology, which is gaining traction due to its advantages over traditional methods [4] - Historical data shows a significant decline in photoinitiator prices, with a 27.8% year-on-year decrease in 2023 and a further 16.3% drop expected in 2024 [4][7] - The report anticipates a price recovery as demand in high-end applications continues to grow [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Jiurui New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Strong Power New Materials as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a recovery in the market for photoinitiators. China is the main producer of photoinitiators, and the industry is becoming increasingly concentrated among leading companies. The demand for photoinitiators is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of UV curing applications [5][29] - The price of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been rising, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases. The recent increase in SAF prices is attributed to China's announcement of an export whitelist and quotas, leading to increased inquiries from European buyers [30][31] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the expected improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for photoinitiators, with China being a key player in production and export [5][29] - The report suggests that the price of photoinitiators, which has been at historical lows, is likely to recover due to expanding applications in high-end sectors [5][29] - SAF prices have increased significantly, with European prices reaching 2230 USD/ton, reflecting a 9.85% weekly increase and a 25.14% monthly increase [30][31] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 3.1% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.2% [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 6.4%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [16] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 372 stocks rose, with the top performers including Dadongnan (+50%) and Taihe Technology (+48.1%) [25][27] - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Ningxin New Materials (-18.6%) and Jinniu Chemical (-14.4%) [25][27] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the recovery potential for photoinitiators and the rising SAF prices as significant developments in the industry [29][30]

证券研究报告 | 海外市场中期报告 海外市场中期报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 应变与耐心 2025 年下半年海外市场展望 2025 年 06 月 27 日 [Table_Main] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 当前美国处于经济周期复苏尾声和 AI 科技周期开端的叠加态中，其中 AI 产业处于 资本开支稳定的阶段，情绪相较于年初有所降温但还远未到悲观的地步，短期对市 场的边际影响或相对有限，因此下半年的重点或仍然在经济周期上，关注关税，财 政和地缘局势三大因子。 第一，关税"上有顶，下有底"，影响或在三季度开始体现。目前美国与各国的谈 判结果并不明朗，关税风险很难再达到 4 月初的水平，也难以完全取消。5 月美国 关税收入规模 221.7 亿美元，以年度计算约为 2660 亿美元，与纳瓦罗预计的 6000 亿元相差甚远，但这并不意味着关税影响消弭：一，美国对英国（顺差国）保留了 10%的 ...