Macro Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is reshaping industrial dynamics, with potential price recoveries in high-end manufacturing sectors[2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project (Yaxia Project) has a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion, approximately 5.8 times the Three Gorges Project's investment[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index has historically shown a positive trend after surpassing 3600 points, with average one-month gains of 12.6%, 17.7%, and 3.5% in previous instances[23] Domestic Demand - The Yaxia Project's investment is expected to contribute positively to domestic demand, with an estimated annual input of CNY 800 billion, accounting for 0.32% of the projected CNY 24.86 trillion infrastructure investment in 2024[19] - The project is anticipated to boost equipment procurement and construction output in related industries, with long-term benefits in clean energy and smart shipping[20] Consumer Sector - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 42,287 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[36] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed significantly to 0.9%, marking the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023, influenced by stricter spending regulations[36] High-End Manufacturing - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing slight price increases due to supply-side reforms, with potential for further price growth in the future[2] - The excavator sector is showing signs of mild recovery, although overall demand remains subdued due to low downstream industry activity[2] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, competitive market pressures, and slower-than-expected product innovation[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential reopening of the market for the herbicide glyphosate in the U.S. following the EPA's proposal to approve three glyphosate-containing products, which is expected to drive new demand [4][5] - Glyphosate's demand is anticipated to grow due to the elimination of high-toxicity pesticides and the promotion of glyphosate-resistant crops, particularly in the U.S. market [5] - The report suggests that glyphosate's price has reached a historical low, indicating significant potential for price increases in the future [5] Market Performance - The report provides a market performance comparison, indicating a decline of 17% for the basic chemical sector compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is concentrated, with major producers like BASF and domestic companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [5] - The report notes that the demand for glyphosate is expected to benefit from the promotion of glyphosate-resistant crop seeds [5] Price Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the future price increase potential for glyphosate, with current prices at approximately 54,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the peak price of 145,000 yuan per ton in 2014, suggesting a potential increase of about 169% [5] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends关注标的: Yangnong Chemical, Changqing Co., Zhongnong United, and Runfeng Co. as potential investment opportunities in the glyphosate market [5]

Supply Perspective - The peak of "absolute increment" in China's real estate supply has passed, transitioning from an expansion phase to a stock phase[3] - The average number of residential units per household reached 0.70 for commercial housing and 1.17 for residential housing by 2023, indicating a shift towards quality and spaciousness in housing[14] - The per capita new housing starts per thousand people dropped to approximately 4.9 in 2023 and is expected to decline further to 3.8 in 2024, reflecting a rationalization of new supply[25] Demand Perspective - Urbanization has driven significant housing demand, with the urbanization rate reaching about 64.6% in 2023, indicating potential for further growth[36] - The age group of 25-44 years, which constitutes the main purchasing demographic, has seen a decline in its proportion of the total population from 34.4% in 2003 to 28.2% in 2023[38] - The proportion of the population aged 65 and above has increased from 8.4% in 2003 to 15.4% in 2023, indicating a rising demand for elderly housing solutions[38] Investment Opportunities - Despite a pessimistic narrative surrounding the real estate market, there are structural opportunities driven by urbanization, aging population, and a shift towards quality housing[3] - The demand for high-quality housing is increasing, with a notable preference for "good houses" across various buyer demographics[3] Risks - Potential data discrepancies and changes in policy environments could impact market dynamics[4] - External economic factors and systemic risks within the financial system remain critical considerations for the real estate market[3]

Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5] - Industrial metal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent price changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showing slight declines. A significant infrastructure project in Tibet is anticipated to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5] - Small metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxides and tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are seeing price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zijin Mining [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.5% and silver by 2.84% in the week of July 14-18, 2025. The year-to-date performance shows a consistent rise in gold prices, positively impacting the gold-silver ratio [5][6] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes for industrial metals include copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.9%), and lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-2.4%). The overall market is influenced by a major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY [5][27] 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased by 5.5% week-on-week, while tungsten concentrate prices have also risen, indicating a recovery in demand for manufacturing tools [5][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with lithium hydroxide (industrial grade) priced at 52,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. Cobalt products are also seeing price increases, indicating a growing demand in the energy sector [5][35] 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 1.82%. Specific segments such as precious metals and small metals saw gains of 1.61% and 4.45%, respectively [36] 3. Important Events Review - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project took place on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY, expected to stimulate demand for metals [43]

Investment Strategy - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to drive the AIDC hardware industry chain, alleviating domestic AI computing power shortages. The H20 chip has a peak FP16 computing power of 148 TFLOPS, significantly lower than the nearly 2000 TFLOPS of the H100, but its 96GB HBM3 memory and 4.0TB/s memory bandwidth make it suitable for applications requiring large memory capacity and high bandwidth, outperforming previous A100/A800 series [12][13] - The trend towards domestic chip replacement and technological self-sufficiency is irreversible. The Chinese government aims for a 70% self-sufficiency rate in chips by 2025. Domestic products like Huawei's Ascend 910 series and Haiguang's Deep Computing No. 3 are continuously improving their performance, with the Ascend 910C matching NVIDIA's H200 [13] - High demand for edge-side applications is expanding growth opportunities for H20 and RTX PRO. AI application monthly active users in China grew rapidly, with AI plugin applications increasing by 106% year-on-year. The high bandwidth characteristics of H20 are accelerating the large-scale implementation of AI inference scenarios [14][15] Industry News - The initial lifting of overseas computing chip restrictions allows H20 and MI308 to re-enter the Chinese market, which is expected to significantly accelerate domestic IDC construction progress. NVIDIA plans to resume sales of H20 and introduce a new compliant GPU, RTX PRO, suitable for digital twin AI applications [16] - T-Mobile's NTN service, T-Satellite, will officially launch on July 23, focusing on satellite direct-to-cellular networks to address communication challenges in areas without ground network coverage. This service has attracted over 1.8 million users during testing, indicating strong market demand [17] - OpenAI announced the launch of a general-purpose AI agent within ChatGPT, capable of assisting users with various computer-based tasks. This development is expected to drive further growth in AI applications and increase computing power demand [18][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2025 work priorities for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing the need for 5G and 6G technology investment and the development of industrial internet platforms [20] - SpaceX plans to launch its third-generation Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, aiming to provide significantly higher downlink and uplink capacities compared to previous generations, potentially competing with ground cellular networks [21][22] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 7.02% increase this week, outperforming major indices. The IDC, optical modules, and optical communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 11.83%, 9.71%, and 6.10% respectively [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Group 1: Current Inflation Status - The CPI in June 2025 increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target[3] - The PPI in June 2025 dropped to -3.6%, marking the lowest level in the year and continuing a negative trend for 33 consecutive months[3][19] - Key factors contributing to low CPI include weak performance in food and energy prices, underestimating the impact of "de-real estate," and weak demand for durable goods and services[3][15][18] Group 2: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a weaker impact on inflation compared to "capacity reduction" policies, as it focuses on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures[3][26] - CPI recovery to above 2% is anticipated to be slow due to ample supply and underappreciated real estate factors[3][29] - PPI is projected to turn positive by Q2 2026, with a forecasted year-end PPI of -1.3% in 2025[3][29] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and insufficient policy effectiveness[3][29] - The relationship between PPI and commodity prices is crucial, with coal, rebar, lithium carbonate, copper, pork, and crude oil being significant influencers[3][20][22] - Recent commodity price trends show a decline in coal and rebar prices, while copper has shown signs of recovery[3][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a potential turning point for glyphosate due to demand stimulation and supply disturbances, with inventory levels significantly reduced by 60.76% from the year's peak [5]. - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, marking a 25.62% rise from the bottom, indicating a strong price recovery trend [5]. - The report suggests that the South American market is expected to drive overall demand for glyphosate, especially during the peak planting season from June to August [5]. - The global glyphosate production capacity is approximately 1.18 million tons per year, with China accounting for 810,000 tons (68.6%) [5]. - The introduction of new standards for glyphosate and glufosinate ammonium is expected to constrain supply, potentially benefiting companies like Limin Chemical and Limin Co. [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis of the basic chemical industry against the CSI 300 index, showing fluctuations in market performance [3]. Related Research - Previous reports have focused on supply-side disturbances and investment opportunities in glyphosate [4]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the significant reduction in glyphosate inventory, which is currently at 34,100 tons, down from a high of 86,900 tons earlier in the year [5]. - Exports of glyphosate to Brazil have shown substantial growth, with April and May exports increasing by 43.71% and 137.27% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The price of glufosinate ammonium has become more competitive compared to glyphosate, with current prices at 43,700 CNY per ton, only 1.7 to 2.2 times that of glyphosate [5].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 深度报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： OBBB 法案落地后，特朗普选民支持率下降，"MAGA"基本盘（非大学白人男性、 中低收入群体）对法案支持率不足 40%，对总统工作的认可度跌破 50%；先前倒 戈支持他的西班牙裔和非白人群体认可率分别降至 43%和 37%；在各州层面，当 前全美仅 16 州保持对其净正面支持，多数关键摇摆州支持率已跌破半数，这显示 出特朗普的执政基础已发生动摇。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 特朗普自上任以来，高举"美国优先"大旗采取一系列反市场、反规律的政策举措， 对政治、贸易、经济、金融市场等稳定性带来一系列扰动，随着金融市场、国内政 治和经济前景的变化，一定程度上制约了其"随心所欲"的施政。我们在 4 月 15 日外发的《关税背后"分裂"的美国》对特朗普背后的政治支持力量进行了细致分 析，三个月以来，特朗普关税政策出现摇摆、各国关税谈判逐步落地和 OBBB 法 案的涉险过关，特朗普背后的政治支持力量也开始变化，出现了选民支持率下降、 社会公正性引 ...