[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to show a shrinking rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.85% to 12984.08 points, indicating a positive overall market sentiment with 4122 stocks rising and 1187 falling [4][6]. - The market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with expectations of policy catalysts and liquidity improvements potentially pushing the market higher in December [8]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market is in a state of fluctuation, with the 30-year contract closing up 0.05% at 114.49 yuan, while the 10-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.03% to 107.940 yuan [11]. - The central bank's liquidity remains ample despite a net withdrawal of funds, with a focus on upcoming economic meetings that may influence fiscal policy and long-term interest rates [11][14]. Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.64%, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a new high of 12727 yuan per kilogram, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [9][11]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain strong performance, with potential upward movement if upcoming economic data is weak or geopolitical risks increase [11][14]. Trading Hotspots - Key sectors include dividend stocks, AI applications, and consumer goods, with a focus on market recovery and potential policy stimuli [13]. - The report highlights a cautious market sentiment with shrinking trading volumes, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies towards more conservative positions [13][14].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.29% at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19 points. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines after early gains, with the ChiNext Index down 0.44% and the STAR 50 Index down 0.33% [3][6] - The total market turnover was 1.72 trillion, a decrease of 4.1% from the previous trading day, indicating a marginal decline in market activity [3][6] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included cyclical industries such as basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, light manufacturing, coal, banking, and utilities, with respective increases of 1.22%, 1.06%, 1.04%, 1.00%, 0.52%, and 0.47%. The lithium battery electrolyte index surged by 6.25% [6] - Major companies in the packaging paper sector announced price increases for their products, with cultural paper prices rising by 200 yuan/ton and packaging paper prices increasing by around 50 yuan/ton [6] - The technology sector showed relative weakness, with the media index dropping 1.39%, reflecting potential profit-taking pressures after recent rebounds in tech growth stocks [6][7] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market exhibited a mixed performance, with the 10-year contract closing down 0.06% at 107.895 yuan, while the 2-year contract rose 0.01% to 102.390 yuan [10] - The interbank market maintained a stable and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the central bank conducting a net liquidity injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repos [10] Commodity Market Insights - The South China commodity index rose by 0.36%, driven by strong performance in precious metals, particularly platinum, which saw a first-day increase of 6.25% [10][11] - The agricultural sector saw price increases in consumer products like eggs and palm oil, attributed to seasonal demand and previous price declines [11] Investment Themes - Recent investment themes include high dividend yield stocks for defensive positioning, AI applications driven by major tech firms, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation and market style shifts [12] - The report suggests a cautious approach to the market, focusing on low-valuation cyclical stocks and high-dividend defensive sectors while awaiting adjustments in the tech sector [7][12]

Market Analysis - The A-share market exhibited a "strong Shenzhen, weak Shanghai" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.15% to close at 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% to 3044.69 points [3][4] - The overall market turnover was 1.80 trillion, a slight decrease of 1.6% from the previous trading day, with 1689 stocks rising and 3591 stocks falling [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector continued to show strength, with the communication sector leading the gains, up 4.68%. Notably, the CPO (optical module) concept surged by 4.52%, with companies like Changguang Huaxin hitting a 20% limit up for two consecutive days [4] - Alibaba Group announced plans to continue investing in AI technology and infrastructure, indicating a long-term strategic value creation, which may sustain the bullish sentiment in the computing power industry [4] - The consumer sector saw a slight uplift due to a new consumption promotion policy aimed at enhancing supply-demand adaptability, which may benefit durable goods like home appliances [4][6] Bond Market - The bond futures market experienced a comprehensive adjustment, with all contracts closing lower. The 30-year main contract TL2512 saw the largest decline of 0.86%, closing at 114.29 [9] - The interbank market maintained a stable and loose liquidity environment, with short-term rates remaining low despite the central bank's reverse repos [9] Commodity Market - The commodity index saw a slight increase of 0.10%, with notable gains in new energy materials and agricultural products. However, the energy sector, particularly crude oil, faced downward pressure [9] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could further depress oil prices, impacting related chemical products [9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a dual rotation between technology and consumer sectors in the coming weeks, driven by developments in AI and consumer policies [6][12] - The bond market is expected to remain weak, influenced by market sentiment, while the commodity market may face pressures from geopolitical developments [12]

Group 1: AI vs. Urban Investment Logic - The "AI faith" and "urban investment faith" share similarities in their foundational logic, emphasizing infrastructure development as a precursor to wealth generation[2] - Key leading indicators for urban investment include city planning area and total project investment, while for AI, they are the number of planned AI servers and data centers, and capital expenditure by major firms[2] - Concerns about AI giants like Nvidia stem from fears of potential overvaluation and competition from alternatives like Google's TPU[2] Group 2: Financial and Economic Implications - The "too big to fail" logic applies to both AI and urban investment, with significant interdependencies in the financial sector; as of November 25, 2025, the "Tech Seven" companies account for 33% of the S&P 500 and 48% of the Nasdaq Composite[2] - The financing logic in urban investment relies on future returns from infrastructure to repay debts, paralleling the substantial investments in AI infrastructure aimed at enhancing computational capabilities[2] - The success of AI is critical for national competitiveness, akin to the role of urban investment in China's rapid urbanization and industrialization[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing debate on whether AI represents a bubble or a genuine faith will require time for resolution, with recent advancements like Google's Gemini 3 and TPU indicating ongoing technological evolution[2] - Risks include the potential for AI development to fall short of expectations, slower-than-anticipated penetration rates, and capital expenditures not meeting projections[2]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to rebound, with technology leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02 points, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53% to 12777.31 points. The ChiNext Index surged 1.77% to 2980.93 points, indicating a significant recovery in growth stock sentiment [3][6]. - The overall market turnover reached 1.83 trillion, a slight increase of 4.9% from the previous day, with 4297 stocks rising, marking the second consecutive day of over 4000 stocks gaining [3]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI applications, remains strong. The AI application sector rose by 1.91%, driven by updates from Google and Alibaba, which enhance expectations for multimodal applications and profitability in the AI industry [6][7]. - The lithium battery electrolyte and cross-strait integration indices increased by 4.59% and 4.02%, respectively, while the optical module index surged by 8.21% [6]. External Factors - Recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicate that risks in the U.S. labor market have surpassed inflation concerns, leading to an increased probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December from 40% to 81% [7]. - A recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasized mutual prosperity, potentially stabilizing external relations and boosting market risk appetite [7]. Bond Market - The domestic bond market is experiencing a "long-end futures decline and short-end stabilization" pattern. The 30-year treasury futures fell by 0.33%, while the 10-year futures dropped by 0.08% [8]. - The People's Bank of China has maintained a loose liquidity environment, continuing to roll over MLF for the ninth consecutive month, indicating a long-term easing signal [8]. Commodity Market - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.47%. The demand for energy storage systems has surged, with global shipments reaching 286.35 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84.7% [8][11]. - Precious metals also saw significant gains, with silver rising by 2.75% and gold by 1.47%, driven by increasing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include high dividend stocks due to attractive yields, AI applications driven by rapid product development, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation and market style shifts [10]. - The report suggests that the current market conditions favor technology sectors, particularly AI, and that the bond market is in a state of adjustment, with a focus on liquidity changes and economic data [10][11].

Market Overview - The major indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component down 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index down 6.15% during the week of November 17-21, 2025[6] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan the previous week[6] E-commerce in Southeast Asia - The e-commerce market in Southeast Asia is evolving towards a more mature and compliant structure, with a projected GMV of $128.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth[16] - Indonesia remains the largest market, accounting for 44% of the total GMV in Southeast Asia, although its growth rate slowed to 5% in 2024[17] - Content-driven e-commerce is emerging as a key growth driver, with live-streaming e-commerce expected to reach $17.6 billion in GMV, representing 14% of the total e-commerce market in the region[27] High-end Manufacturing: Power Batteries - Global demand for power batteries is expected to exceed 1 TWh in 2024, with electric vehicles contributing over 85% of this demand, reaching 950 GWh, a 25% increase year-on-year[29] - China's power battery production capacity is projected to grow by 41.49% in 2025, reaching 548.5 GWh, aligning closely with the sales of new energy vehicles[35] - The industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and technological upgrades, driven by stricter regulations and self-discipline among leading companies[40] Hard Technology: Storage Prices - Storage prices are on the rise, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices increasing by 158% and 307% respectively since September 2025, leading to a contraction in transaction volumes[41] - The anticipated increase in smartphone and laptop costs due to rising storage prices is estimated to be around 5-7% in 2026, with potential impacts on demand[42] Health Sector: Small Nucleic Acids - The global market for RNAi therapies is projected to grow from $3.459 billion in 2024 to $25.195 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 39.2%[49] - Over 20 small nucleic acid drugs have been approved globally, with nearly 170 projects in clinical stages, indicating a robust pipeline in oncology and chronic disease treatment[49]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3836.77 points, a slight increase of 0.05% [6] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12585.08 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.31% to 2929.04 points, indicating a strong performance in the small-cap sector [6] - The total market turnover was 1.74 trillion, reflecting a decrease of approximately 12.3% from the previous trading day, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest [6] Sector Performance - The military and AI application sectors remained active, with notable gains in related stocks such as China Shipbuilding and commercial aerospace, which rose by 6.41% and 5.78% respectively [5] - AI applications saw a boost from updates in Google's Gemini 3.0 Pro Image model and Alibaba's "Qianwen" app, indicating a shift from concept to practical application [5] - The lithium mining and new energy sectors continued to adjust, with the lithium index dropping by 4.93%, reflecting concerns over supply and demand dynamics [5][11] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a slight increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.15% [10] - The overall funding environment remained loose, with the central bank conducting a 3387 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [10] - The upcoming PMI data will be crucial for assessing market expectations regarding monetary policy and interest rates [10] Commodity Market - The commodity index rebounded, with the South China Commodity Index closing at 2516.25 points, up 0.55% [10] - The market showed structural differentiation, with energy and chemical sectors leading gains, while precious metals and new energy materials faced downward pressure [10] - Lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, influenced by increased trading fees and supply recovery expectations from major producers [9][11] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include attractive dividend yields in the dividend sector, accelerated application of AI technologies, and potential recovery in consumer spending due to currency appreciation [12] - The report suggests a cautious approach to equity markets due to external factors such as U.S. interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions [12]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 21 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 市场开启避险交易 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 11 月 21 日周五，A 股市场放量大幅下跌；国债期货延续调整；商 品多数下跌，碳酸锂跌停。市场呈现"股债商"全线下跌特征。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：情绪低迷，放量大跌 情绪低迷，放量大跌。今日 A 股市场遭遇重挫，三大指数低开低走，全天呈现单 边下跌态势。上证指数失守 3900 点整数关口，收跌 2.45%报 3834.89 点；深证成 指、创业板指分别下跌 3.41%、4.02%，科创 50 指数跌 3.19%，北证 50 指数跌 4.71%，微盘指数重挫 4.87%。全市场成交额放量至 1.98 万亿，较 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 11 月 21 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 薛威 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 迟到的非农，有限的指引 ——2025 年 9 月美国就业数据点评 资格编号：S0120523080002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：中美博弈烈度超预期；地缘政治危机超预期；全球经济承压超预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 9 月就业数据。9 月新增非农 11.9 万人，大幅超出预 期值 5.1 万人，主要受医疗保健、食品服务等行业的拉动；8 月份新增非农从 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人；失业率上行至 4.4%；小 ...