Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 从苏超、Labubu 等爆品看提振消费 ——关于提振消费问题的再思考 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 2025 年 07 月 02 日 当前市场对消费领域较为关注：1）经济短期面临经贸斗争扰动，中长期面临低通 胀挑战，临近 7 月政治局会如何进一步提振消费值得关注。2）今年消费数据表现 强势离不开以旧换新及财政政策的支持，政策力度若边际下降是否会再次出现消 费不足的特征？3）今年以来新消费百花齐放，苏超、Labubu、哪吒 2 等均有现象 级表现，与传统消费有一定分化，如何理解这一现象的宏观逻辑，对后续提振消费 有何启示？ 我国已经进入品质消费时代，当前市场对消费领域较为关注。我们在 2 月外发《关 于提振消费问题的一些再思考》报告中通过对居民消费行为的划分，详细介绍了中 国消费市场的变化，在经历了三轮模仿型排浪式消费浪潮、2010 年后的消费升级 时代后，如今我国逐 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场月报 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场月报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 美元资产修复之后 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 6 月全球股市涨多跌少。美国三大股指集体上涨，其中纳斯达克指数领涨；欧洲 三大主要指数表现分化；亚太市场方面，韩国综合指数领涨。 美国 5 月 PCE 基本符合预期，消费者信心显著下降。6 月 27 日，美国商务部公 布数据显示，美国 5 月 PCE 物价指数同比上升 2.3%，符合预期，美国 5 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率录得 2.7%，创 2025 年 2 月以来新高。6 月 25 日周二，谘商 会最新报告显示，由于预期商业状况、就业市场和收入前景较为低迷，美国消费 者信心本月有所减弱，美国 6 月谘商会消费者信心指数降至 100.4，略高于市场 预期的 100，但 5 月数据下修至 101.3。 美元弱势 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 30 日 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：逼仓预期出现， 铜价波动或提升 | 图 | 1：内外盘金价 3 | | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：外盘金银铂钯价 ...

优于大市（维持） [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 4.《染料行业更新：供给端趋紧态势 延续，重视 H 酸与活性染料弹性》， 2025.6.10 5.《涨价主线！关注氯虫苯甲酰胺、 SAF 等》，2025.6.8 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 30 日 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1. 《 关 注 钾 肥 板 块 投 资 机 会 》， 2025.6.22 2.《钾肥大合同落地，关注钾肥景 气！》，2025.6.16 3.《涨价主线！关注活性染料、生物 柴油等》，2025.6.16 供需关系存在改善预期，光引发剂景气 有望修复 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：①据 Wind 全球企业库，2025 年以来，国内光引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with a recovery in the market for photoinitiators. China is the main producer of photoinitiators, and the industry is becoming increasingly concentrated among leading companies. The demand for photoinitiators is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of UV curing applications [5][29] - The price of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been rising, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases. The recent increase in SAF prices is attributed to China's announcement of an export whitelist and quotas, leading to increased inquiries from European buyers [30][31] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the expected improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for photoinitiators, with China being a key player in production and export [5][29] - The report suggests that the price of photoinitiators, which has been at historical lows, is likely to recover due to expanding applications in high-end sectors [5][29] - SAF prices have increased significantly, with European prices reaching 2230 USD/ton, reflecting a 9.85% weekly increase and a 25.14% monthly increase [30][31] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 3.1% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.2% [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 6.4%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [16] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 372 stocks rose, with the top performers including Dadongnan (+50%) and Taihe Technology (+48.1%) [25][27] - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Ningxin New Materials (-18.6%) and Jinniu Chemical (-14.4%) [25][27] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the recovery potential for photoinitiators and the rising SAF prices as significant developments in the industry [29][30]

证券研究报告 | 海外市场中期报告 海外市场中期报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 应变与耐心 2025 年下半年海外市场展望 2025 年 06 月 27 日 [Table_Main] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 当前美国处于经济周期复苏尾声和 AI 科技周期开端的叠加态中，其中 AI 产业处于 资本开支稳定的阶段，情绪相较于年初有所降温但还远未到悲观的地步，短期对市 场的边际影响或相对有限，因此下半年的重点或仍然在经济周期上，关注关税，财 政和地缘局势三大因子。 第一，关税"上有顶，下有底"，影响或在三季度开始体现。目前美国与各国的谈 判结果并不明朗，关税风险很难再达到 4 月初的水平，也难以完全取消。5 月美国 关税收入规模 221.7 亿美元，以年度计算约为 2660 亿美元，与纳瓦罗预计的 6000 亿元相差甚远，但这并不意味着关税影响消弭：一，美国对英国（顺差国）保留了 10%的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - **Exploration and Development**: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - **Refining**: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - **Chemicals**: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - **Marketing and Distribution**: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 96,623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: -0.4%) [2] - The national general public budget expenditure during the same period was CNY 112,953 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% (previous value: 4.6%) [2] - The revenue and expenditure are under "dual pressure," primarily due to "low prices," with PPI continuing to decline affecting VAT, corporate income tax, and tariff revenues [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were 2.4%, 1.6%, -2.5%, and 8.2%, respectively [3] - In May, VAT and personal income tax showed improvements, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1% and 12.3%, respectively, supported by high-tech manufacturing [4] - Corporate income tax growth was flat at 0.0%, down from 4.0% in the previous period, influenced by low PPI and tariff frictions [5] Expenditure Insights - The expenditure progress for January to May reached 38.5% of the annual budget, with social security, health, and transportation expenditures showing the fastest progress at 45.5%, 41.6%, and 39.1%, respectively [8] - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure growth was 6.6%, indicating a positive trend supporting Q2 GDP [9] Government Fund Insights - From January to May 2025, government fund budget expenditure was CNY 32,125 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [10] - Land transfer income-related expenditure decreased by 9.3%, reflecting weakened investment enthusiasm from real estate companies [10] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy has room for incremental space and tools to address potential external risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [10] - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately CNY 35,354 billion in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 84% [11]