证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2026 年 01 月 14 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 核心通胀降温，降息预期不改 ——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 12 月 CPI 报告。12 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，环比 0.3%， 均符合市场预期并持平前值。核心通胀降温，核心 CPI 同比涨幅 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低水平，同时低于预期 2.7%；环比 0.2%，低于预期 0.3%。 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

Group 1: Healthcare Sector - The domestic brain-computer interface (BCI) market is expected to maintain double-digit growth, with a projected market size of 3.83 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [3][11] - The global BCI market is anticipated to reach 2.93 billion USD in 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year growth [3][11] - The Chinese government has introduced several significant policies since 2025 to support the development of BCIs in the medical field, including the inclusion of BCIs in medical insurance [11][12] - As of December 2025, there have been 24 financing rounds in the domestic BCI sector, totaling over 5 billion yuan, with a record single financing of 350 million yuan in February 2025 [3][15] Group 2: High-end Manufacturing Sector - The excavator market in China showed a mild recovery, with total sales of 23,095 units in December 2025, representing a 19.2% year-on-year increase [22][23] - For the entire year of 2025, excavator sales reached 235,257 units, up 17% from the previous year, with domestic sales increasing by 17.9% and exports by 16.1% [22][24] - The adjustment of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to accelerate industry clearing and benefit product price recovery [27][28] Group 3: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82% during the week of January 5-9, 2026 [29][30] - The average daily trading volume in the market was 2.85 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week [29][30] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, while some sectors like banking and transportation lagged behind [30][36]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a correction, ending a 17-day consecutive rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4138.76 points, down 0.64% [3] - The Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 1.37% to 14169.40 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped 1.96% to 3321.89 points, indicating a broad market adjustment [3] - Despite the market correction, trading volume remained high at 3.7 trillion yuan, reflecting sustained trading activity [8] Sector Performance - A shift in market style was observed, with funds moving from high-position themes to defensive sectors, such as oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, which saw gains [6] - The commercial aerospace sector faced significant declines, with a drop of 6.15%, marking the largest single-day decline since the recent rally began [6] - The lithium carbonate futures surged, reaching a new high of 174,060 yuan/ton, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [12] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a recovery, with the 30-year contract (TL2603) rising by 0.28% to close at 111.35 yuan [12] - The central bank's net injection of 342.4 billion yuan contributed to a generally loose liquidity environment, despite short-term interest rates rising [12] - The bond market sentiment improved, indicating a potential shift towards long-term bonds as the new year begins [18] Commodity Market - The commodity market displayed significant divergence, with non-ferrous metals maintaining a leading position, while other sectors faced pressure [10] - The South China commodity index closed at 2736.38 points, down 0.24%, with lithium carbonate, silver, and tin leading the gains [10] - Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East have contributed to rising oil prices, with potential implications for global oil supply [13] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer sectors, all supported by policy initiatives and technological advancements [14] - The insurance and brokerage sectors are expected to benefit from high trading volumes in the A-share market, with potential changes in trading regulations being monitored [14] - The precious metals sector is anticipated to perform well due to central bank purchases and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [14]

Employment Data Summary - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 60,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%[2] - Total employment growth for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual growth since 2020[2] Labor Market Insights - The number of unemployed individuals in December was 1.9 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 397,000[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month[2] - The report indicates that the decline in the unemployment rate may be due to individuals giving up on job searches, with 6.2 million people not in the labor force but wanting to work[2] Sector Performance - Employment in the food service and bar industry rose by 27,000, with an average monthly increase of 12,000 jobs in 2025, up from 11,000 in 2024[2] - The healthcare sector added 21,000 jobs, with an average monthly increase of 34,000 in 2025, down from 56,000 in 2024[2] - Retail jobs decreased by 25,000 in December, with little change in average monthly employment for 2025 compared to 2024[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in January 2026 is over 95%, with a 95.6% chance according to CME models[2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with June 2026 being the most likely time for a rate cut[2] Asset Market Reactions - Major asset classes showed limited volatility, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield around 3.53% and the dollar index rising above 99[2] - U.S. stock indices experienced gains, while gold prices returned to $4,500 per ounce[2] - The lack of consistent patterns in asset performance suggests minimal impact from the employment data, with prices continuing to follow their own trends[2] Economic Monitoring Recommendations - Increased attention is recommended for Q1 2026 economic data due to current asset classes being in a "awkward" position[2] - The performance of the Nasdaq since October 2025 indicates a narrowing trading range, suggesting a potential directional shift is approaching[2] - The ability of traditional economic sectors to drive growth amid declining AI investment expectations will be crucial for market dynamics[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected intensification of U.S.-China tensions, geopolitical crises, and greater-than-expected global economic pressures[12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16-day consecutive rise and breaking through the 4100-point mark, reaching a new high in over 10 years [5][6] - The trading volume exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, marking a near four-month high, indicating strong market activity [5][6] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.92% to 4120.43 points, and other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also recording gains [5] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and AI application sectors remained active, with notable stocks like Galaxy Electronics showing strong performance [6] - The small metals sector performed well, with companies like Jiangxi Tungsten and Yunnan Zinc reaching new highs, driven by rising prices of precious metals and supply constraints in cobalt and nickel [6] - The CPI and PPI data released were better than market expectations, with CPI rising by 0.8%, the highest since March 2023, indicating potential inflationary pressures [7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market saw a decline across the board, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.07% [11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining liquidity in the market [11] - Short-term pressures in the bond market are expected to persist, influenced by macroeconomic data and stock market performance [11] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with precious metals leading gains, particularly palladium which rose by 6.01% [11] - Multi-crystalline silicon prices continued to decline, with a drop of 8.11%, reflecting a loose supply-demand balance despite production cuts [11] - The overall commodity index is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, driven by ongoing investment and market dynamics [15] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, driven by policy support and market dynamics [13][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global pricing trends and domestic policy changes that could impact these sectors [15]

Inflation Overview - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in November, marking the highest level since March 2023[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from -0.1% in November to +0.2% in December, indicating a return to positive growth[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting persistent domestic demand recovery[1] Price Drivers - Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year in December, with a significant contribution of 0.31% to the CPI, up from 0.06% in November[1] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 18.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices rose by 4.4%, driven by adverse weather and pre-holiday stocking demands[1] - Pork prices decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, continuing to exert downward pressure on the CPI by approximately 0.20%[1] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year in December, a smaller decline compared to -2.2% in November, indicating easing industrial deflationary pressures[1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of positive growth[1] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with upstream mining prices down by 4.7%[1] Market Outlook - The upcoming Chinese New Year on February 17, 2026, may create a "Spring Festival misalignment" effect, potentially leading to a decline in January CPI due to the absence of holiday-related price increases[2] - The PPI recovery is expected to rely on sustained domestic demand and deepening supply-side reforms, with infrastructure investments anticipated to boost demand for construction materials[2] - Risks include intensified US-China trade tensions and potential underperformance of China's economic recovery[2]

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 15-day consecutive rise, indicating strong market momentum and increased trading volume from approximately 1.7 trillion to about 2.9 trillion [5][6] - There is a noticeable divergence in market performance, with thematic stocks rising while heavyweight stocks consolidate, suggesting a healthy market environment that may support further index growth [5][6] - The current market is at a critical juncture of policy and industrial resonance, with long-term support from the 15th Five-Year Plan, monetary policy easing, and industrial upgrades in sectors like semiconductors and commercial aerospace [5][6] Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98 points, down 0.07%, marking its 15th consecutive rise, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.51% and 0.82% respectively [6] - The trading volume for A-shares was approximately 2.83 trillion, with over 3700 stocks rising, indicating active market participation [6] Bond Market - The government bond futures market saw a comprehensive rebound, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37% to 111.000 yuan, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.15% to 107.790 yuan [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a net injection of liquidity, which may influence short-term bond market dynamics [9] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced a general decline, with most varieties falling, while coking coal and coke prices remained strong, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [8][9] - The price of polysilicon dropped significantly, closing at 53,610 yuan per ton, reflecting a relatively loose supply-demand balance despite a reduction in production [9] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals supported by central bank purchases and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, commercial aerospace driven by government support, and nuclear fusion with accelerated industrialization [11][13] - The AI application sector is gaining traction with significant advancements from major tech companies, while consumer sectors are benefiting from currency appreciation and market style shifts [11][13] Core Thoughts - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trajectory supported by policy backing, foreign capital inflows, and industrial innovation, with a potential for short-term fluctuations [13] - The bond market may face adjustments influenced by stock-bond dynamics and central bank operations, necessitating close monitoring of policy changes [13] - The commodity index is showing signs of sustained bullish sentiment, suggesting ongoing investment interest in major global commodities and domestic anti-involution products [13]

Consumer Insights - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.19% compared to 2024, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.35%[16] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a significant boost, with the number of shoppers increasing by 27.09% and total spending rising by 49.89% compared to the same period in 2024[18] - In major cities, Shanghai's daily average consumption during the holiday was 12.2 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while Beijing's monitored sales reached 4.04 billion yuan, up 16.3%[17] High-end Manufacturing - The "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise highlights the strategic importance of the military-industrial sector amid geopolitical tensions, emphasizing its role in national sovereignty and external risk management[20][26] - The military exercise's focus on Taiwan reflects a more precise and targeted approach compared to previous drills, enhancing control over critical maritime routes and deterring external interference[22] Hard Technology - Major domestic wafer manufacturers are actively engaging in capital operations, with SMIC's registered capital increasing from $6.5 billion to $10.0773 billion, and a planned acquisition of 49% of SMIC North for 40.601 billion yuan[27][33] - Longxin Technology's IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan, potentially becoming the second-largest fundraising in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's history, supporting its expansion in memory chip production[27][31] Health Sector - Domestic small nucleic acid drug companies, such as Rebio and Bowang Pharmaceutical, are demonstrating strong R&D capabilities, with multiple products entering clinical phases and significant business development collaborations underway[35][36]

Group 1: Neuralink Developments - Neuralink plans to increase brain-computer interface (BCI) output in 2026, transitioning to nearly fully automated surgeries[3] - As of January 5, 2026, the Wande BCI Index rose by 10.54%, with companies like Sanbo Neuroscience and Meihua Medical hitting the daily limit[3] - Neuralink aims to exceed 25,000 electrodes by 2028, expanding applications to treat mental disorders and integrating with AI[3] Group 2: Policy and Market Support - Multiple government departments in China are supporting BCI development, with the National Healthcare Security Administration including BCI in medical insurance as of March 2025[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" lists BCI as one of the six future industries, aiming for significant breakthroughs by 2027[3] - As of December 2025, the BCI sector in China has seen 24 financing rounds, totaling over 5 billion yuan, with a record single financing of 350 million yuan[3] Group 3: Clinical and Commercial Progress - Domestic BCI projects are moving from exploration to clinical stages, with significant trials completed in 2025[3] - The first long-term invasive BCI clinical trial in China was completed in March 2025, marking a milestone in the field[3] - Companies like Sanbo Neuroscience and Meihua Medical are highlighted as key players in the BCI industry, with potential for accelerated commercialization[3]

Group 1: Market Insights - The market is expected to focus on three key pieces of information at the start of 2026, including the emphasis on innovation for high-quality development in the New Year address by the General Secretary[4] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong opening on January 2, 2026, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.86%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index climbing by 4%[5] - The listing of Wallen Technology, the first domestic GPU company, saw a 76% surge on its debut, indicating a shift towards commercialization in the domestic GPU industry[5] Group 2: Geopolitical Events and Implications - A significant geopolitical event occurred with the U.S. airstrike in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro, which may lead to increased uncertainty in international order[5] - The implications for oil prices are mixed, with potential short-term supply uncertainties and mid-term prospects for increased production from Venezuela, which could pressure oil prices downward[6] - The event is expected to have limited impact on global stock markets, as initial shock may be absorbed by the market by the time trading resumes[6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Maduro incident highlights the importance of technological self-sufficiency and the significance of industries like domestic substitution and commercial aerospace for national strength[7] - Investment opportunities in high-growth sectors aligned with technological innovation and policy direction are recommended for the year ahead[4]