[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 供需视角看地产长周期 地产进化论·一 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 07 月 22 日 核心观点："房地产"是宏观经济研究绕不开的"锚"，在经济增长、产业发展、 金融市场、居民资产负债表、财政税收等领域都扮演过重要的角色。2021 年以来， 宏观经济进入"去地产化"阶段，房地产市场景气变化对增长、就业、税收、物价、 系统性风险等领域带来了不同程度的"扰动"，市场存在"地产见顶"的认识，也 有所谓的"唯地产论"论调甚嚣尘上。24 年 924 后高层提出"止跌回稳"的政策 基调，我们也判断房地产市场"最悲观的阶段"已经过去、进入"见龙在田"阶段， 房地产市场预期有所改观，25 年房地产在经历了年初的小阳春后有所降温，二季 度以来与地产相关的悲观叙事再度浮现，包括但不限于担心头部房企债务压力、金 融体系的系 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 07 月 21 日 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn TACO 交易临变 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨多跌少。美股三大指数表现分化，纳指和标普 500 上涨，道指小 幅回调；欧洲市场三大主要指数表现分化，英国富时 100 和德国 DAX 指数上涨， 法国 CAC40 指数小幅回调；亚太地区涨多跌少，仅印度 SENSEX30 指数回调。 美国 CPI 整体温和，但"关税阴影"已开始显现。美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，6 月整体 CPI 环比上涨 0.3%，同比涨幅达到 2.7%，为四个月高点。核心 CPI 环比 上涨 0.23%，同比涨幅为 2.9%，略低于预期。虽然整体 6 月 CPI 表现温和，但部 分分项涨幅超出预期，关税对特定商品类别的价格传导效应正在持续加剧。 稳定币法案过会，美元地位获巩固 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：银价持续上行， 看多贵金属价格 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 07 月 21 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属：金 ...

Investment Strategy - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to drive the AIDC hardware industry chain, alleviating domestic AI computing power shortages. The H20 chip has a peak FP16 computing power of 148 TFLOPS, significantly lower than the nearly 2000 TFLOPS of the H100, but its 96GB HBM3 memory and 4.0TB/s memory bandwidth make it suitable for applications requiring large memory capacity and high bandwidth, outperforming previous A100/A800 series [12][13] - The trend towards domestic chip replacement and technological self-sufficiency is irreversible. The Chinese government aims for a 70% self-sufficiency rate in chips by 2025. Domestic products like Huawei's Ascend 910 series and Haiguang's Deep Computing No. 3 are continuously improving their performance, with the Ascend 910C matching NVIDIA's H200 [13] - High demand for edge-side applications is expanding growth opportunities for H20 and RTX PRO. AI application monthly active users in China grew rapidly, with AI plugin applications increasing by 106% year-on-year. The high bandwidth characteristics of H20 are accelerating the large-scale implementation of AI inference scenarios [14][15] Industry News - The initial lifting of overseas computing chip restrictions allows H20 and MI308 to re-enter the Chinese market, which is expected to significantly accelerate domestic IDC construction progress. NVIDIA plans to resume sales of H20 and introduce a new compliant GPU, RTX PRO, suitable for digital twin AI applications [16] - T-Mobile's NTN service, T-Satellite, will officially launch on July 23, focusing on satellite direct-to-cellular networks to address communication challenges in areas without ground network coverage. This service has attracted over 1.8 million users during testing, indicating strong market demand [17] - OpenAI announced the launch of a general-purpose AI agent within ChatGPT, capable of assisting users with various computer-based tasks. This development is expected to drive further growth in AI applications and increase computing power demand [18][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2025 work priorities for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing the need for 5G and 6G technology investment and the development of industrial internet platforms [20] - SpaceX plans to launch its third-generation Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, aiming to provide significantly higher downlink and uplink capacities compared to previous generations, potentially competing with ground cellular networks [21][22] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 7.02% increase this week, outperforming major indices. The IDC, optical modules, and optical communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 11.83%, 9.71%, and 6.10% respectively [23][24]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《南美需求启动，关注双草投资机 会》，2025.7.18 2.《秋季备肥启动，关注钾肥、磷肥 投资机会》，2025.7.14 3.《有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂 ， 有 机 硅 产 能 有 力 出 清 》 ， 2025.7.11 4.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 5.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能 过剩行业迎结构性改善契机》， 2025.7.7 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 20 日 涨价主线！关注 TDI、草铵膦、草甘 膦等 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（7/11-7/18）上证综指 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 "反内卷"加码扩围，低通胀何时改 善？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 07 月 18 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 CPI 及 PPI 均处于"低通胀"阶段。2025 年 6 月 CPI 同比上涨仅为 0.1%，距离 2%的通胀目标仍有较远距离，CPI 较低主要源于四方面因素：1）属于非核心 CPI 的食品和能源对 CPI 拖累较多，这两者主要受猪价和油价影响，两者受供给侧因 素影响今年以来表现较弱。2）"去地产化"的拖累可能被低估，CPI 房租租赁的 波动较小，难以有效反映房租真实的变动，我们在《走出"低价"，关注什么？》 中有详细分析。3）由于财富效应的作用，"房地产"对整体消费能力和消费意愿 的扰动可能高于预期，拖累商品及服务价格表现。4）周期性服务和耐用品价格表 现较弱，这部分与居民消费能力、意愿有重要关联，也容易受政策影响出现"以价 换量"的特征。 6 月 PPI 同 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 潘云鹤 资格编号：S0120525070001 邮箱：panyh3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 18 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 信息披露 分析师声明 相关研究 1.《供给端扰动，关注草甘膦投资机 会》，2025.5.30 南美需求启动，关注双草投资机会 —草甘膦行业点评② [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：①根据百川盈孚，截至 7 月 14 日，我国草甘膦价格 2.55 万元，同比上周 +0.79%，同比上月+7.16%。②7 月 7 日中国农药工业协会提出并归口的 T/CCPIA 275—2025《草铵膦可溶液剂（水剂）氯离子限量》团体标准发布实施，《标准》 中规定了草铵膦可溶 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 深度报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： OBBB 法案落地后，特朗普选民支持率下降，"MAGA"基本盘（非大学白人男性、 中低收入群体）对法案支持率不足 40%，对总统工作的认可度跌破 50%；先前倒 戈支持他的西班牙裔和非白人群体认可率分别降至 43%和 37%；在各州层面，当 前全美仅 16 州保持对其净正面支持，多数关键摇摆州支持率已跌破半数，这显示 出特朗普的执政基础已发生动摇。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 特朗普自上任以来，高举"美国优先"大旗采取一系列反市场、反规律的政策举措， 对政治、贸易、经济、金融市场等稳定性带来一系列扰动，随着金融市场、国内政 治和经济前景的变化，一定程度上制约了其"随心所欲"的施政。我们在 4 月 15 日外发的《关税背后"分裂"的美国》对特朗普背后的政治支持力量进行了细致分 析，三个月以来，特朗普关税政策出现摇摆、各国关税谈判逐步落地和 OBBB 法 案的涉险过关，特朗普背后的政治支持力量也开始变化，出现了选民支持率下降、 社会公正性引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in computing power technology, driven by breakthroughs in hardware and software ecosystems, particularly represented by Huawei [5][13] - The introduction of standardized data circulation contracts by the National Data Bureau is expected to enhance transaction efficiency by 30% [4][17] - The establishment of a 6G industry policy in Beijing aims to foster key technology development and standardization efforts [8][18] - The report emphasizes the significant market demand for domestic AI chips and the commercial viability of the HarmonyOS ecosystem [14][15] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Domestic substitution in computing power is entering an accelerated phase, with Huawei's Matrix 384 super node providing 300 PFLOP computing power, significantly outperforming competitors [5][13] - The shipment of Ascend 910 series AI chips has begun, with initial orders for the 910C chip expected to exceed 70,000 units, valued at approximately $2 billion [14] - National funding and local government support are paving the way for opportunities in domestic semiconductor and operating system development [15] Industry News - The National Data Bureau's new contract templates for data circulation are expected to standardize agreements and enhance transaction efficiency [4][17] - Beijing's 6G industry policy focuses on key technology breakthroughs and aims to establish a robust 6G ecosystem by 2030 [8][18] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has formed a leadership group to promote general aviation and low-altitude economy development [20] - China Telecom has launched a full-scenario application for satellite direct connection, marking a significant step in integrated network applications [21] Market Performance Review - The telecommunications sector saw a 2.19% increase this week, outperforming major indices [9][22] - Key sectors such as optical modules and industrial internet showed strong growth, with increases of 5.04% and 2.57% respectively [22][25] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the domestic AI computing chain [22][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]