Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is focusing on AI infrastructure development, aiming to enhance enterprise AI application density and productivity [6][7] - The AI software suite is expected to lower the barriers for enterprise-level AI agent implementation, thereby increasing market opportunities [7] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth driven by AI applications, with projected revenue increases of 14.8%, 16.6%, and 16.1% for 2025-2027 [9] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 26.77 billion, 31.22 billion, and 36.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 16.6%, and 16.1% [9][10] - Net profit is expected to be 2.05 billion, 2.53 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 31.4%, 23.9%, and 25.3% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 58.3% in 2024 to 53.7% by 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, due to rising prices and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand [4] - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with some metals experiencing price declines while trade negotiations between China and the US may provide upward pressure on prices [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the tungsten market driven by manufacturing recovery, despite recent price declines in rare earth elements [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic spot gold prices fell by 1.81% recently, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar [4] 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel changed by -1.6%, 1.1%, -0.2%, -1.3%, -1.9%, and -2.9% respectively [4][27] - The report notes that trade discussions between China and the US may ease trade tensions, potentially benefiting industrial metal prices [4] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have decreased, while tungsten prices have also seen declines, although demand for tungsten is expected to grow in the medium to long term [4][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium and nickel prices have generally declined, with lithium hydroxide prices down by 3.8% and nickel prices down by 1.8% [4][34] 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has declined by 3.57%, with specific segments like metal new materials and precious metals seeing larger drops [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights the escalation of tensions due to US military actions in the Middle East, which may impact market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets like gold [41]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with US indices diverging: Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose, while S&P 500 experienced a slight pullback[3] - Major European indices collectively retreated, while the Asia-Pacific region displayed varied performance[3] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, aligning with expectations, but revealed deepening internal divisions within the committee regarding future rate changes[3] - Votes on potential rate cuts for 2025 showed 7 in favor of no cuts, 2 for one cut, 8 for two cuts, and 2 for three cuts, indicating a median expectation of two cuts being easily overlooked[3] - For 2026, the distribution of votes was more scattered compared to March, with a median expectation shifting from two cuts to one cut[3] Economic Concerns - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic landscape, highlighting persistent inflation concerns due to trade tensions and geopolitical issues[3] - Trump's recent comments about potentially "firing Powell" echo past tensions between presidents and Fed chairs, raising questions about the Fed's independence[3] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a strategy of capitalizing on volatility by selectively shorting volatility assets like SVIX and SVXY, given the uncertain economic environment and potential geopolitical shifts[3] - The upcoming economic negotiations and geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran, may create significant market movements in late June to early July[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 22 日 关注钾肥板块投资机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.《染料行业更新：供给端趋紧态势 延续，重视 H 酸与活性染料弹性》， 2025.6.10 2.《涨价主线！关注氯虫苯甲酰胺、 SAF 等》，2025.6.8 3.《万华化学（600309.SH）：主营 业务保持稳健，减值&报废短期拖 累》，2025.6.4 4.《SAF 企业有望迎来量价齐升阶 段！》，2025.6.4 5.《新一轮化工供给侧改革或将开 启》，2025.6.3 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（6/13-6/20）上证综指涨跌幅 为-0.5%，创业板指 ...

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a steady improvement, with manufacturing investment growing by 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment of -10.7%[5] - The industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, driven by strong performance in the equipment manufacturing sector, which contributed over 50% to industrial production[5][8] Inflation and Price Dynamics - The current economic context is characterized by low inflation, with a focus on driving up core CPI as a key to reversing low prices; the core CPI recovery is crucial for internal demand restoration[5][8] - PPI pressures are monitored through domestic demand and supply dimensions, particularly focusing on domestic demand-driven commodity prices and the "copper-gold ratio" for industrial demand[5][8] Structural Resilience - The dual counteracting forces of "manufacturing nation" and "de-leveraging in real estate" continue to enhance economic resilience, with manufacturing and export strength effectively mitigating the negative impacts of real estate and consumption[5][8] - The economic growth figures may reflect a divergence from microeconomic fundamentals, suggesting a need for patience and confidence in the Chinese economy's recovery[5][8] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, with signs of a turning point in pessimistic narratives; there is an optimistic outlook for RMB assets as external pressures gradually ease[5][8] - The macro policy in 2025 is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[5][8] Risks - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate sector, and delays in the rollout of real estate stimulus measures[5]

Group 1: Budget Process and Structure - The U.S. federal budget process involves collaboration between the executive and legislative branches, starting with the presidential budget proposal and culminating in congressional approval[3] - The federal budget has evolved from a "legislative dominance" model (1789-1921) to a "presidential control" model (1921-1974), and currently operates under a complex interplay of both[4] - Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, has increased from approximately 26% of the federal budget in 1962 to 60.1% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a welfare state[5] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Debt - The U.S. federal budget has been in a persistent deficit, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) could add approximately $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade[8] - Federal debt has been rising due to structural imbalances between mandatory spending and limited tax revenue, leading to a "debt snowball" effect that exacerbates fiscal vulnerability[5] - The 2023 debt ceiling crisis highlighted the political maneuvering between parties, with the House passing a bill to raise the debt limit by about $1.5 trillion while imposing spending cuts[52] Group 3: Revenue Sources - In the 2024 fiscal year, individual income tax is projected to generate $2.426 trillion, accounting for 49.3% of total federal revenue, while corporate income tax is expected to contribute $529.9 billion, or 10.77%[12][14] - The federal government relies heavily on payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, with a uniform tax rate of 6.2% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare[12] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The budget process is characterized by ongoing political negotiations, with the current environment reflecting a divided government that complicates budget approvals and debt ceiling increases[51] - The introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023 was a result of bipartisan negotiations aimed at avoiding a federal default, showcasing the political leverage surrounding budgetary decisions[54]

Loan Data - In May, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, with a total loan balance growing by 7.1% year-on-year[8] - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 74.6 billion yuan[9] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 170 billion yuan[10] Social Financing - In May, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, with a TSF stock growth rate of 8.7%[13] - Government bonds were the main contributor to TSF growth, with net financing of 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan[13] - The TSF pulse improved to -13.3% in May from -15.1% in April, indicating a potential bottoming out[14] Monetary Supply - In May, M2 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 2.3%, with the M2-M1 growth rate difference narrowing to 5.6%[18] - The increase in deposits was 2.18 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 470 billion yuan and corporate deposits decreasing by 417.6 billion yuan[18] Market Signals - The bond market is awaiting key signals from US-China trade negotiations and incremental reserve policies to address low inflation[21] - The central bank's liquidity management aims to maintain ample liquidity, regardless of the method used, including reverse repos and open market operations[23]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级， 坚守贵金属投资 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 16 日 贵金属：金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (6.09 - 6.13), the money market rates showed divergence, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and the fund leverage slightly rose. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yields of CDs at various tenors declined. In terms of cash bond transactions, the main buyers were funds, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds. Rural commercial banks took profits on long - term bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of 15 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds, and large banks continued to buy interest - rate bonds with a tenor of less than 3Y [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Open Market Operations**: This week, there were 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 173.8 billion, 198.6 billion, 164 billion, 119.3 billion, and 202.5 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total of 858.2 billion yuan. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 72.7 billion yuan. Next Tuesday (6/17), there will be 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing [5][10]. - **Funding Rates**: As of June 13, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.46%, 1.58%, 1.41%, and 1.5% respectively, changing by 1.43BP, 2.97BP, - 0.02BP, and - 3.03BP compared to June 6, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively [5][15]. - **Net Funding of Main Lenders**: The net funding of the main lenders (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) was - 428.3 billion yuan for the whole week (6.09 - 6.13), with the net funding scale decreasing by 87 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][18]. - **Repo Transactions**: The trading volume of pledged repos increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.95 trillion yuan and a single - day high of 8.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.98% compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repo transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 89.4% and a single - day high of 91.5%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. As of June 13, it was at the 91.5% percentile [5][27]. - **Leverage Ratios**: As of June 13, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.4%, 212.7%, 128.2%, and 105.8% respectively, changing by 0.13BP, 10.25BP, 1.12BP, and 0.38BP compared to June 6, and were at the 21%, 45%, 70%, and 50% historical percentile levels respectively [5][32]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **CD Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the issuance scale of CDs increased, and the net financing decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 1,039.12 billion yuan, an increase of 453.53 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 1,203.63 billion yuan, an increase of 539.26 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 164.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.73 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. - **CD Issuance by Bank Type**: Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of CDs by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 296.51 billion yuan, 308.9 billion yuan, 356.57 billion yuan, and 71.96 billion yuan respectively, changing by 144.63 billion yuan, 147.34 billion yuan, 133.03 billion yuan, and 27.45 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - **CD Issuance by Tenor**: In terms of tenor, the 1Y CD had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs were 30.66 billion yuan, 295.24 billion yuan, 174.35 billion yuan, 183.47 billion yuan, and 355.4 billion yuan respectively, changing by 26.25 billion yuan, 161.71 billion yuan, - 62.29 billion yuan, 94.89 billion yuan, and 232.97 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - **CD Issuance Rates**: This week, the issuance rates of CDs by different banks and tenors declined. As of June 13, the issuance rates of 1 - year CDs by joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by - 2.6BP, - 3.67BP, - 1.96BP, and - 8.6BP compared to June 6, and were at the 2%, 3%, 1%, and 1% historical percentile levels respectively [43]. - **CD Yields at Maturity**: This week, most of the yields of CDs at maturity declined. As of June 13, the yields at maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated commercial bank CDs were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.67% respectively, changing by 0.28BP, - 1.95BP, - 1BP, - 0.8BP, and - 0.75BP compared to June 6 [48]. - **Bill Rates**: This week, bill rates declined. As of June 13, the 3M straight - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M straight - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - share bills were 1.08%, 0.99%, 1.05%, and 1.04% respectively, changing by - 7BP, - 3BP, - 9BP, and - 5BP compared to June 6 [49]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Cash Bond Transactions**: This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were funds, with a net purchase of 291.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week; the main sellers were city commercial banks, with a net sale of 319.9 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [54]. - **Fund Transactions**: This week, funds net - bought 291.7 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 171.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 45.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 44.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - **Wealth Management Transactions**: This week, wealth management products net - bought 107.4 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 8.2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 14.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 11.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 73.1 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased within 1 year, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year [54]. - **Rural Financial Institution Transactions**: This week, rural financial institutions net - sold 176 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 129 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 2.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and a decrease of 48.4 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - **Insurance Company Transactions**: This week, insurance companies net - bought 69.9 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 29.8 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 6.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, 4.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range [55].

[Table_Main] 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 苏鸿婷 邮箱：suht＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 1.《以逸待劳，重视负债端变化》， 2025.6.11 2.《大行买短债流动性与机构行为 跟踪-》，2025.6.9 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 固定收益点评 社融增速维稳，债券融资发力支撑。5 月社融增速环比持平，整体略低预期。5 月 新增社会融资规模 22,894 亿元，同比多增 2,271 亿元，同比增速为 8.70%，环比 上月持平。整体来看，社融增速较前月表现持平，延续前月较高增速水平，结构上 债券融资形成支撑，贷款端有一定拖累，从今年政府债发行进度来看，整体进度较 快尤其是特别国债发行节奏较快，前置发力特征明显，此外伴随科创债发行企业债 融资亦有改善，对社融整体构成正向贡献。 居民信贷偏稳，企业短贷冲量与中长贷偏弱。5 月信贷低于预期，结构表现分化， 居民 ...