1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (6.09 - 6.13), the money market rates showed divergence, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and the fund leverage slightly rose. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yields of CDs at various tenors declined. In terms of cash bond transactions, the main buyers were funds, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds. Rural commercial banks took profits on long - term bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of 15 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds, and large banks continued to buy interest - rate bonds with a tenor of less than 3Y [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Open Market Operations**: This week, there were 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 173.8 billion, 198.6 billion, 164 billion, 119.3 billion, and 202.5 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total of 858.2 billion yuan. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 72.7 billion yuan. Next Tuesday (6/17), there will be 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing [5][10]. - **Funding Rates**: As of June 13, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.46%, 1.58%, 1.41%, and 1.5% respectively, changing by 1.43BP, 2.97BP, - 0.02BP, and - 3.03BP compared to June 6, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively [5][15]. - **Net Funding of Main Lenders**: The net funding of the main lenders (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) was - 428.3 billion yuan for the whole week (6.09 - 6.13), with the net funding scale decreasing by 87 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][18]. - **Repo Transactions**: The trading volume of pledged repos increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.95 trillion yuan and a single - day high of 8.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.98% compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repo transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 89.4% and a single - day high of 91.5%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. As of June 13, it was at the 91.5% percentile [5][27]. - **Leverage Ratios**: As of June 13, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.4%, 212.7%, 128.2%, and 105.8% respectively, changing by 0.13BP, 10.25BP, 1.12BP, and 0.38BP compared to June 6, and were at the 21%, 45%, 70%, and 50% historical percentile levels respectively [5][32]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **CD Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the issuance scale of CDs increased, and the net financing decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 1,039.12 billion yuan, an increase of 453.53 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 1,203.63 billion yuan, an increase of 539.26 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 164.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.73 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. - **CD Issuance by Bank Type**: Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of CDs by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 296.51 billion yuan, 308.9 billion yuan, 356.57 billion yuan, and 71.96 billion yuan respectively, changing by 144.63 billion yuan, 147.34 billion yuan, 133.03 billion yuan, and 27.45 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - **CD Issuance by Tenor**: In terms of tenor, the 1Y CD had the highest issuance scale. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs were 30.66 billion yuan, 295.24 billion yuan, 174.35 billion yuan, 183.47 billion yuan, and 355.4 billion yuan respectively, changing by 26.25 billion yuan, 161.71 billion yuan, - 62.29 billion yuan, 94.89 billion yuan, and 232.97 billion yuan compared to the previous week [35]. - **CD Issuance Rates**: This week, the issuance rates of CDs by different banks and tenors declined. As of June 13, the issuance rates of 1 - year CDs by joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by - 2.6BP, - 3.67BP, - 1.96BP, and - 8.6BP compared to June 6, and were at the 2%, 3%, 1%, and 1% historical percentile levels respectively [43]. - **CD Yields at Maturity**: This week, most of the yields of CDs at maturity declined. As of June 13, the yields at maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated commercial bank CDs were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.67% respectively, changing by 0.28BP, - 1.95BP, - 1BP, - 0.8BP, and - 0.75BP compared to June 6 [48]. - **Bill Rates**: This week, bill rates declined. As of June 13, the 3M straight - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M straight - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - share bills were 1.08%, 0.99%, 1.05%, and 1.04% respectively, changing by - 7BP, - 3BP, - 9BP, and - 5BP compared to June 6 [49]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Cash Bond Transactions**: This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were funds, with a net purchase of 291.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week; the main sellers were city commercial banks, with a net sale of 319.9 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [54]. - **Fund Transactions**: This week, funds net - bought 291.7 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 171.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 45.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 44.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - **Wealth Management Transactions**: This week, wealth management products net - bought 107.4 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 8.2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 14.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, 11.9 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 73.1 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased within 1 year, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year [54]. - **Rural Financial Institution Transactions**: This week, rural financial institutions net - sold 176 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 129 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 2.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and a decrease of 48.4 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range [54]. - **Insurance Company Transactions**: This week, insurance companies net - bought 69.9 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 29.8 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 6.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, 4.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds), and 29.7 billion yuan in CDs. In terms of tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 7 - 10 - year range [55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the total financial data was relatively stable, but the structure was differentiated, and the credit sub - items were lower than expected. Government bonds were the main contributor to the social financing growth rate, offsetting the weak credit growth. The real estate on the household side was still in the process of recovery and showed stability, while the corporate side was more significantly differentiated. Short - term loans increased due to improved corporate expectations, and medium - and long - term loans were still affected by debt replacement. The M1 growth rate recovered due to the base effect. In the future, attention should be paid to the household consumption recovery path, policy support for the real estate market, and the possible slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half of the year [4] - The bond market is currently in a verification period of multiple factors. Attention should be paid to the main logic of the liability shortage and trading opportunities brought by short - term factor changes. There may be trading opportunities due to the central bank's bond - buying expectations and tariff policy changes, but also technical short - term risks caused by over - buying corrections [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Social Financing Growth Rate Remains Stable, and Bond Financing Provides Support - The social financing growth rate was stable compared with the previous month, continuing the high - growth level of the previous month. Bond financing provided support, while the loan side had some drag. The government bond issuance progress was fast this year, especially the issuance of special treasury bonds. The issuance of enterprise bonds also improved with the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds, which positively contributed to social financing [4][8] - In May, the social financing growth rate was flat month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. The new social financing scale was 228.94 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 22.71 billion yuan and a year - on - year growth rate of 8.70%. Government bonds and enterprise bonds were the main drivers. Government bonds increased by 146.33 billion yuan, contributing 0.06 percentage points to the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale. Enterprise bonds increased by 14.96 billion yuan, also positively contributing to the growth rate. The stock growth rate of off - balance - sheet financing was still positive, at a high level in the past year [4][11] 2. Household Credit is Relatively Stable, with Corporate Short - Term Loans Increasing and Medium - and Long - Term Loans Weak - In May, credit was lower than expected, and the structure was differentiated. Household medium - and long - term loans increased continuously, while debt resolution restricted corporate medium - and long - term loans. The new RMB loans were 62 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 33 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 7.10% [4][19][21] - In the household sector, short - term loans decreased year - on - year, while medium - and long - term loans increased year - on - year. In the corporate sector, short - term loans were higher than the same period in the past two years, possibly due to improved corporate expectations after the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Medium - and long - term loans were weak, possibly due to the lagged effect of debt resolution. Corporate bond issuance also supplemented the medium - and long - term capital needs to some extent [4][19] 3. M1 Recovers Upward under the Low - Base Effect, and New Non - Bank Deposits Remain at a High Level - In May, the M1 growth rate widened to 2.30%, and the growth rate difference between M2 and M1 narrowed. The new RMB deposits were 218 billion yuan. The increase in the new scale of each department's deposits compared with the same period last year may be related to the base effect of the "manual interest compensation" last year. The M1 growth rate was supported by the base effect, financial policies, and the arrival of debt - resolution funds [33]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业点评 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 16 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 点评： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业寡头格局明显，欧洲减产扰动供给。全球钾肥市场呈现寡头垄断特征。根据观 研天下统计，2023 年全球钾矿储量超过 36 亿吨，主要分布在加拿大、白俄罗斯和 俄罗斯，储量（折 K2O）分别 11.0 亿吨、7.5 亿吨、6.5 亿吨，储量占比合计为 69%（按照总储量 36 亿吨计算），这种寡头格局导致龙头企业可通过控制产能释 放调控价格。根据肥料与贸易和农资导报，前苏联三家钾肥公司都先后宣布上半年 的减产计划，合计减少出口 180 万吨以上（考虑了 Uralkali 因国内需求增加而减少 出口的部分）。其中 Eurochem 由于其在俄罗斯的 Usolskiy 和 Volgakaliy 矿的改造 和系统升级将在第二季度减少约 10 万吨的钾肥产量；1 月 22 日白俄罗斯钾肥巨 头 Belaruskali 计划在其索利戈尔斯克 4 号矿区开展大规模设备维护作业，直接导 致公司钾肥产量减少约 90 万~100 万吨；Uralkali 三座矿山 ...

Investment Strategy - The satellite sector is showing a trend of "East rising, West falling," indicating that China may achieve a latecomer advantage in low Earth orbit satellites. The number of Starlink satellites falling has increased significantly, with 316 expected to fall in 2024, compared to only 2 in 2020. This trend correlates with heightened solar activity [12][16] - The "computing satellite" sector is emerging as a new avenue, with China potentially holding a first-mover advantage. The "Star Computing" plan aims to establish a space-based computing network with 2,800 satellites, while the "Three-body Computing Constellation" will achieve a total computing power of 1,000 POPS [13][14] - Four key advantages are expected to establish satellites as a new type of infrastructure: universal connectivity, high-speed communication, large-scale user access, and safety and reliability. Satellite internet can provide access in remote areas, with latency as low as 20-50 milliseconds and peak speeds reaching 500 Mbps [14][15] Industry News - Starlink satellites have been falling at an increasing rate, with over 500 reported to have fallen between 2020 and 2024. This trend provides valuable insights for China's satellite development, helping to avoid similar risks in the future [16][17] - China Mobile has initiated a procurement project for 170,000 data center switches, with Huawei and ZTE among the winning bidders. This reflects ongoing investments in infrastructure to support AI demand [17][18] - China Mobile has successfully launched a trusted data space project for data annotation, which aims to support various sectors including smart vehicles and healthcare, marking a shift towards a more skill-intensive data industry [18][19] - China Post has successfully conducted long-distance cargo transport using fixed-wing drones, marking a significant breakthrough in low-altitude logistics [19] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a slight decline of 0.5% this week, with notable performances in optical modules and low-altitude economy sectors. The satellite internet sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [20][21] - Recommended stocks for next week include companies involved in satellite internet, such as Aerospace Universe and Tianyin Machinery, as well as long-term focus on major telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index showing a year-to-date increase of 5.8%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.1 percentage points [6][17] - The report highlights significant price increases in key raw materials such as H-acid and active dyes, driven by environmental pressures and supply constraints [28][30] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a new long-term growth cycle, supported by government policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [14] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index remained flat week-on-week, ranking 14th among 31 sectors [17] - Year-to-date performance shows the basic chemical index up by 5.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [17][23] Key Events - H-acid prices reached 41,750 CNY/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 22.79% [28] - Active dye prices also increased, with a month-on-month rise of 4.55% [28] Product Price Changes - The report notes significant price increases in various chemical products, with HVO and SAF prices rising by 11.47% and 11.60% respectively [30] - The report identifies a positive feedback loop in the biodiesel supply chain, driven by rising raw material prices [30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong pricing power in the active dye and biodiesel sectors, including Jinji Co., Jihua Group, and Runtao Co. [29][30] - It also suggests that core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical highlighted for potential investment [15]

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced mixed results last week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by -0.4%, -0.6%, and -1.3% respectively[3] - European indices showed varied performance; the UK FTSE 100 rose slightly while the German DAX and French CAC40 retreated[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, market performance was also mixed[3] Economic Indicators - The US May CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8%[3] - Following the CPI data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year remain, although the timing may be delayed[3] Geopolitical Impact - The Israel-Iran conflict has led to a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from $66.5 per barrel on June 10 to a peak of $78.5, closing above $75 on June 13[3] - The geopolitical tensions could significantly impact global markets, particularly US dollar assets previously affected by trade wars[3] Investment Strategies - The report suggests maintaining positions in US stocks and bonds while selectively investing in volatility-related assets like SVIX and SVXY to hedge against market fluctuations[3] - The strategy emphasizes a cautious approach, advocating for a "do not move" stance on core holdings while opportunistically entering volatility trades[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 15 日 一文读懂美国的《国家紧急状态法》 宏观 ABC 系列之七 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年特朗普政府利用 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合，以国家安全和贸易逆差为由，绕 过国会批准程序单方面宣布紧急状态，并对中国、加拿大、墨西哥及其他主要贸易 伙伴征收普遍高额关税。这一行动迅速遭遇法律挑战，美国国际贸易法庭（CIT） 裁定其违宪并颁布禁令，但随后被联邦巡回上诉法院暂时中止执行。本文将全面解 析美国的《国家紧急状态法》，从而了解特朗普是如何通过 NEA 与 IEEPA 组合， 绕开国会实行所谓的"对等关税"政策。 NEA 与 IEEPA：美国总统紧急权力的制度化与扩张。20 世纪 70 年代，美国国会 为防止总统滥用紧急状态权力，通过了《国家紧急状态法》（NEA），设立程序性限 制并规定紧急状态自动失效机制，试图加强国会监督。然 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, down from -2.7%[2][28] - The month-on-month CPI shifted from positive to negative, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month[3][18] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery[5][18] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decrease[4][18] - Seasonal increases in vegetable supply led to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, contributing to the overall decline in CPI[5][18] - Core CPI's increase was supported by rising gold prices, a narrowing decline in energy prices, and increased transportation rental fees due to holiday effects[5][18] Group 3: Future Projections - If pork prices rise unexpectedly to 40 CNY per kilogram and oil prices also increase, the CPI could potentially reach an annual growth of 0.2% in 2025[3][8] - The core CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.2% for the year if utility prices rise again, indicating a potential recovery in consumer prices[9][8] - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure in June 2025, influenced by international input factors and domestic energy price declines[12][14]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "924" policy shift in 2024 significantly improved market risk appetite, leading to increased market activity and valuation recovery in certain sectors[2] - By 2025, the macro economy shows signs of stabilization, with corporate profits beginning to recover from the bottom[2] - Despite improvements, the current macro environment remains complex, leading to increased volatility in some assets[2] Group 2: Industrial Profit Analysis - From January to April 2025, industrial enterprises' profits shifted from decline to growth, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 7.6%[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year[7] - Equipment manufacturing remains a crucial support for profit growth, with a profit increase of 15.5% in the same period[10] Group 3: A-Share Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to reach a "profit bottom" in Q2 or Q3 2025, aligning with industrial profit trends[16] - The predicted cumulative profit growth rates for industrial enterprises in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025 are 0.6%, 3.5%, and 3.3% respectively[16] - The upcoming mid-year reports for listed companies will be critical in assessing the effectiveness of the "924" policy and the resilience of the Chinese economy[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and adoption of AI models, particularly the Doubao model family, which has seen a significant increase in daily token usage, surpassing 16.4 trillion tokens by the end of May 2025, representing a growth of over 137 times since its launch [4][8]. - The Doubao model 1.6 features advanced capabilities, including multi-modal support and a context window of 256k, which enhances its reasoning and understanding abilities [4]. - The Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model has been recognized as a leader in the industry, outperforming many mainstream models in generating video content [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -27% to +67% over the specified periods [3]. AI Model Developments - The Doubao model family includes various models such as Doubao-seed-1.6, which offers a unified pricing model that reduces costs by 63% for most requests [4][6]. - The Seedance 1.0 pro model is priced competitively, costing only 3.67 yuan for generating a 5-second 1080P video, significantly lower than competitors [6]. Industry Adoption - The Doubao model is being adopted by 9 out of the top 10 global smartphone manufacturers and is utilized by 70% of systemically important banks and numerous brokerage firms [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the growing integration of AI models in various sectors, including education, automotive, and finance, with notable increases in token consumption across different applications [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI edge computing, AI agents, multi-modal AI, and AI computing power, listing several key players in each category [10].