Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - **Exploration and Development**: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - **Refining**: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - **Chemicals**: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - **Marketing and Distribution**: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 96,623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: -0.4%) [2] - The national general public budget expenditure during the same period was CNY 112,953 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% (previous value: 4.6%) [2] - The revenue and expenditure are under "dual pressure," primarily due to "low prices," with PPI continuing to decline affecting VAT, corporate income tax, and tariff revenues [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were 2.4%, 1.6%, -2.5%, and 8.2%, respectively [3] - In May, VAT and personal income tax showed improvements, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1% and 12.3%, respectively, supported by high-tech manufacturing [4] - Corporate income tax growth was flat at 0.0%, down from 4.0% in the previous period, influenced by low PPI and tariff frictions [5] Expenditure Insights - The expenditure progress for January to May reached 38.5% of the annual budget, with social security, health, and transportation expenditures showing the fastest progress at 45.5%, 41.6%, and 39.1%, respectively [8] - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure growth was 6.6%, indicating a positive trend supporting Q2 GDP [9] Government Fund Insights - From January to May 2025, government fund budget expenditure was CNY 32,125 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [10] - Land transfer income-related expenditure decreased by 9.3%, reflecting weakened investment enthusiasm from real estate companies [10] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy has room for incremental space and tools to address potential external risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [10] - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately CNY 35,354 billion in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 84% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is focusing on AI infrastructure development, aiming to enhance enterprise AI application density and productivity [6][7] - The AI software suite is expected to lower the barriers for enterprise-level AI agent implementation, thereby increasing market opportunities [7] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth driven by AI applications, with projected revenue increases of 14.8%, 16.6%, and 16.1% for 2025-2027 [9] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 26.77 billion, 31.22 billion, and 36.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 16.6%, and 16.1% [9][10] - Net profit is expected to be 2.05 billion, 2.53 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 31.4%, 23.9%, and 25.3% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 58.3% in 2024 to 53.7% by 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, due to rising prices and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand [4] - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with some metals experiencing price declines while trade negotiations between China and the US may provide upward pressure on prices [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the tungsten market driven by manufacturing recovery, despite recent price declines in rare earth elements [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic spot gold prices fell by 1.81% recently, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar [4] 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel changed by -1.6%, 1.1%, -0.2%, -1.3%, -1.9%, and -2.9% respectively [4][27] - The report notes that trade discussions between China and the US may ease trade tensions, potentially benefiting industrial metal prices [4] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have decreased, while tungsten prices have also seen declines, although demand for tungsten is expected to grow in the medium to long term [4][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium and nickel prices have generally declined, with lithium hydroxide prices down by 3.8% and nickel prices down by 1.8% [4][34] 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has declined by 3.57%, with specific segments like metal new materials and precious metals seeing larger drops [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights the escalation of tensions due to US military actions in the Middle East, which may impact market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets like gold [41]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with US indices diverging: Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose, while S&P 500 experienced a slight pullback[3] - Major European indices collectively retreated, while the Asia-Pacific region displayed varied performance[3] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, aligning with expectations, but revealed deepening internal divisions within the committee regarding future rate changes[3] - Votes on potential rate cuts for 2025 showed 7 in favor of no cuts, 2 for one cut, 8 for two cuts, and 2 for three cuts, indicating a median expectation of two cuts being easily overlooked[3] - For 2026, the distribution of votes was more scattered compared to March, with a median expectation shifting from two cuts to one cut[3] Economic Concerns - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic landscape, highlighting persistent inflation concerns due to trade tensions and geopolitical issues[3] - Trump's recent comments about potentially "firing Powell" echo past tensions between presidents and Fed chairs, raising questions about the Fed's independence[3] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a strategy of capitalizing on volatility by selectively shorting volatility assets like SVIX and SVXY, given the uncertain economic environment and potential geopolitical shifts[3] - The upcoming economic negotiations and geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran, may create significant market movements in late June to early July[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment opportunities in the potassium fertilizer sector, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [6][32] - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by oligopoly, with major reserves concentrated in Canada, Belarus, and Russia, allowing leading companies to control prices through capacity management [33] - The report anticipates a new long-term growth cycle for the chemical industry, supported by recent policy initiatives aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term growth cycle due to recent policy measures aimed at boosting demand and stabilizing the market [17] - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, industries facing supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [18][19] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 2.5% during the week, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [20][21] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 3.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3 percentage points [20] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 74 stocks rose while 345 fell during the week [28] - The top gainers included Ningxin New Materials (+46.7%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.4%), while the largest decliners were Jiangtian Chemical (-19.2%) and Shanshui Technology (-18.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the investment potential in the potassium fertilizer sector, noting recent price increases for various potassium products [32] - Significant supply reductions have been announced by major potassium fertilizer producers, which are expected to support price stability and growth in the sector [33][34]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a steady improvement, with manufacturing investment growing by 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment of -10.7%[5] - The industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, driven by strong performance in the equipment manufacturing sector, which contributed over 50% to industrial production[5][8] Inflation and Price Dynamics - The current economic context is characterized by low inflation, with a focus on driving up core CPI as a key to reversing low prices; the core CPI recovery is crucial for internal demand restoration[5][8] - PPI pressures are monitored through domestic demand and supply dimensions, particularly focusing on domestic demand-driven commodity prices and the "copper-gold ratio" for industrial demand[5][8] Structural Resilience - The dual counteracting forces of "manufacturing nation" and "de-leveraging in real estate" continue to enhance economic resilience, with manufacturing and export strength effectively mitigating the negative impacts of real estate and consumption[5][8] - The economic growth figures may reflect a divergence from microeconomic fundamentals, suggesting a need for patience and confidence in the Chinese economy's recovery[5][8] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, with signs of a turning point in pessimistic narratives; there is an optimistic outlook for RMB assets as external pressures gradually ease[5][8] - The macro policy in 2025 is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[5][8] Risks - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate sector, and delays in the rollout of real estate stimulus measures[5]

Group 1: Budget Process and Structure - The U.S. federal budget process involves collaboration between the executive and legislative branches, starting with the presidential budget proposal and culminating in congressional approval[3] - The federal budget has evolved from a "legislative dominance" model (1789-1921) to a "presidential control" model (1921-1974), and currently operates under a complex interplay of both[4] - Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, has increased from approximately 26% of the federal budget in 1962 to 60.1% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a welfare state[5] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Debt - The U.S. federal budget has been in a persistent deficit, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) could add approximately $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade[8] - Federal debt has been rising due to structural imbalances between mandatory spending and limited tax revenue, leading to a "debt snowball" effect that exacerbates fiscal vulnerability[5] - The 2023 debt ceiling crisis highlighted the political maneuvering between parties, with the House passing a bill to raise the debt limit by about $1.5 trillion while imposing spending cuts[52] Group 3: Revenue Sources - In the 2024 fiscal year, individual income tax is projected to generate $2.426 trillion, accounting for 49.3% of total federal revenue, while corporate income tax is expected to contribute $529.9 billion, or 10.77%[12][14] - The federal government relies heavily on payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, with a uniform tax rate of 6.2% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare[12] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The budget process is characterized by ongoing political negotiations, with the current environment reflecting a divided government that complicates budget approvals and debt ceiling increases[51] - The introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023 was a result of bipartisan negotiations aimed at avoiding a federal default, showcasing the political leverage surrounding budgetary decisions[54]

Loan Data - In May, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, with a total loan balance growing by 7.1% year-on-year[8] - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 74.6 billion yuan[9] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 170 billion yuan[10] Social Financing - In May, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, with a TSF stock growth rate of 8.7%[13] - Government bonds were the main contributor to TSF growth, with net financing of 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan[13] - The TSF pulse improved to -13.3% in May from -15.1% in April, indicating a potential bottoming out[14] Monetary Supply - In May, M2 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 2.3%, with the M2-M1 growth rate difference narrowing to 5.6%[18] - The increase in deposits was 2.18 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 470 billion yuan and corporate deposits decreasing by 417.6 billion yuan[18] Market Signals - The bond market is awaiting key signals from US-China trade negotiations and incremental reserve policies to address low inflation[21] - The central bank's liquidity management aims to maintain ample liquidity, regardless of the method used, including reverse repos and open market operations[23]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级， 坚守贵金属投资 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 16 日 贵金属：金 ...