Market Review - The current bull market has transitioned from a "narrative bull" to an "industry bull," marked by significant policy actions on September 24, which initiated a notable upward trend in the A-share market [5][13][15] - The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model in January 2025 ignited enthusiasm in the domestic AI sector, leading to a substantial increase in the AI index, which saw a maximum rise of 126.08% by December 10, 2025 [5][16] Sector Performance - The AI sector has been a major driver of market performance, with the AI index experiencing a maximum increase of 34.75% from January to March 2025, and a year-to-date increase of 126.08% [5][16] - The robotics sector is expected to see significant growth, with a maximum index increase of 90.72% by December 10, 2025, driven by policy support and new product launches [5][18] - The "new consumption" sector, represented by companies like Pop Mart and others, has shown remarkable growth, with maximum increases of 329.18% and 366.05% respectively, fueled by technological strength and cultural expression [5][19] - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector has also benefited from policy incentives, with a maximum index increase of 121.79% by December 10, 2025, driven by significant business development transactions [5][20] - The cyclical sector has seen an overall increase of 28.8% from July to November 2025, supported by anti-involution policies and improvements in supply chains for new energy sectors [5][23] Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a stable overall economy with a focus on quality and efficiency, transitioning from "promoting stability through progress" to "enhancing quality and efficiency" [5][4.2] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with a moderate easing of monetary policy and a net inflow of funds primarily from long-term investors [5][4.3] - The geopolitical landscape is characterized by a shift in major power dynamics, with the U.S. adopting a more selective approach in its foreign policy, particularly towards Latin America [5][4.1]

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a strong performance with most stocks rising, as the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% to 3890.45 points, the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.66% to 13140.21 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.49% to 3122.24 points, with a total market turnover of 1.75 trillion yuan, up approximately 4.3% from the previous trading day [2][4] - The market's positive momentum was driven by policy and event-related factors, particularly the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which saw a significant increase in related stocks [4] Sector Performance - The consumer services, commercial retail, and light industry manufacturing sectors rose by 3.76%, 2.65%, and 2.25% respectively, indicating a positive outlook on consumer recovery [4] - Conversely, sectors such as banking and coal saw declines of 0.47% and 0.34%, while technology-related indices like optical modules and GPUs fell by 1.84% and 1.76% respectively [4] Bond Market - The government bond futures market experienced a broad recovery, with all contract maturities recording increases, including a 0.22% rise in the 30-year main contract [11] - The People's Bank of China resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting liquidity into the market, which is expected to stabilize short-term liquidity fluctuations [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index slightly declined by 0.18%, with a mixed performance among industrial products; lithium carbonate prices surged by 3.86%, while other commodities like plastic and aluminum oxide faced downward pressure [10][16] - The overall market showed structural differentiation, with some sectors experiencing strong performance while others faced supply excess pressures [10][16] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include the recovery of consumer spending, advancements in commercial aerospace, and the acceleration of nuclear fusion projects, with a focus on monitoring project progress and industry developments [12][14] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced investment strategy in technology and consumer sectors, as external liquidity pressures ease and market sentiment improves [14]

Inflation Data - The November CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[2] Data Collection Issues - Data collection for CPI was disrupted due to a government shutdown, leading to limited reference data for October and November[2] - The Labor Bureau used September data as a base for October due to the lack of survey data, raising concerns about data comparability[2] - The collection window for November data was extended, but this change still affects the reliability of the data[2] Market Expectations - Despite the lower inflation figures, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with a 72.3% probability of no rate change in January 2026[2] - The probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remains below 50%, indicating market skepticism about the inflation data[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could significantly impact foreign trade and financial markets[5] - Geopolitical crises, such as the Israel-Palestine or Russia-Ukraine conflicts, may lead to increased global risk aversion and market volatility[5] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economy, affecting trade and financial markets[5]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 18 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 股市缩量调整，情绪静待催化 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 1）股票市场：市场有所调整，但赚钱效应仍佳 成交量有所下行，中小盘表现更佳。12 月 18 日，A 股大小指数分化，沪指小幅上 涨，创业板指下挫。上证指数收涨 0.16%报 3876.37 点，深证成指跌 1.29%，创 业板指跌 2.17%，北证 50 跌 0.51%，科创 50 跌 1.46%，万得全 A 跌 0.38%，万 得 A500 跌 0.64%，中证 A500 跌 0.63%，中证 2000 涨 0.07%。A 股全天成交 1.68 万亿元，上日成交 1.83 万亿元。市场合计 2413 只个股下跌，2843 只上涨， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength with a rebound in trading volume, with major indices rising significantly on December 17, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19% to close at 3870.28 points, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.39% [5] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.83 trillion yuan, up from 1.75 trillion yuan the previous day, indicating a strong profit-making effect with 3623 stocks rising and 1634 stocks falling [5] Stock Market Analysis - The listing of Muxi Co., the second domestic GPU stock, significantly boosted the technology sector, with its stock price soaring by 693% to 829.90 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding 330 billion yuan [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are recommended for balanced allocation, supported by the central government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a priority for 2026 [6] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market experienced a comprehensive rise, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.63% to 112.140 yuan [11] - The central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan, maintaining a loose liquidity environment, with Shibor rates for short-term maturities mostly declining [11] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate leading the gains at 7.61%. The price of lithium carbonate reached 108,620 yuan per ton due to supply constraints [11] - Precious metals experienced a broad increase, with platinum and palladium prices hitting the limit up, driven by global liquidity expectations and domestic gold reserve increases [11] Trading Hotspots - The report highlights several key sectors for investment, including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with a focus on their growth potential and market dynamics [12][14] - The central economic work conference's direction and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to enhance liquidity and support investment in consumer and technology sectors [12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 谭诗吟 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 平庸的数据，微弱的影响 ——2025 年 11 月美国就业数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 10 月和 11 月就业数据。10 月就业人数下降 10.5 万 人，预期下降 2.5 万人；11 月新增非农 6.4 万人，预期 5 万人；11 月失业率 4.6%， 高于预期值 4.5%。8 月和 9 月新增非农均有下修，合计较修正前减少 3.3 万人。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

[Table_Main] 产业经济周报 证券研究报告 | 产业经济周报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 周天昊 资格编号： S0120525040002 邮箱：zhouth＠tebon.com.cn 徐宇博 资格编号：S0120525090001 邮箱：xuyb5＠tebon.com.cn 徐梓煜 相关研究 关注挖掘机销售超预期和流感持续爆 发后的产业链机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周观点：本周（12/8-12/12）市场高位盘整。全周上证指数下跌 0.34%，深证成 指上涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%。本周市场日均成交 额 1.95 万亿，较上周交易量有所提升（上周 1.70 万亿）。美联储如期降息，A 股 市场延续震荡。 大消费观点：拉美电商崛起但尚未饱和，拉美目前互联网渗透率近 75%，电商渗 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 2025 年 12 月 15 日 相关研究 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 15 日周一，A 股市场缩量调整；国债期货市场全线下跌；商 品指数微跌，贵金属延续强势，工业品反弹。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场再度缩量调整 权益缩量调整，工业品反弹 缩量调整，科技指数领跌。今日 A 股三大指数集体调整，市场呈现"权重护盘、科 技领跌"的结构性特征。上证指数低开后震荡回落，收盘跌 0.55%至 3867.92 点； 深证成指跌 1.10%至 13112.09 点，创业板指跌 1.77%，收于 3137.80 点；科创 50 指数调整幅度达 2.22%；红利指数逆势上涨 0.75%，或反映硬科技板块情绪显著 降温，资金向高股息防 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 相关研究 放量上涨，微盘调整 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 摘要。2025 年 12 月 12 日周五，A 股市场回暖上涨，成交额 2.12 万亿创近一个 月新高；国债期货市场全线调整；商品指数微涨，焦煤延续弱势。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：市场回暖，放量上涨，微盘连续调整 回暖上涨，微盘连续调整。今日 A 股核心指数集体反弹，成长类指数表现更优。 上证指数低开后震荡回升，收盘报 3889.35 点，涨幅 0.41%；深证成指报 13258.33 点，涨幅 0.84%；创业板指收于 3194.36 点，涨幅 0.97%。科创 50 指数表现突 出，上涨 1.74%，或反映硬科技板块情绪升温。 ...