证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 关税落地冲击 TACO 交易 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 07 月 14 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨跌参半。美股三大指数集体回调，纳指、标普 500 和道指涨跌幅 分别为-0.1%、-0.3%和-1.0%；欧洲市场三大主要指数集体上涨，德国 DAX、法国 CAC40 和英国富时 100 指数涨跌幅分别为+2.0%、+1.7%和+1.3%；亚太地区涨 多跌少，越南 VN30 指数领涨，日经 225 和印度 SENSEX30 指数回调。 关税重启，对欧盟的关税超出预期，本轮 TACO 交易可能落空，中长期影响亦存在 较大不确定性。上周美国总统特朗普向多国发送征税函，目前的税率从 25%-50%不 等，自 8 月 1 日开始生效，其中对巴西将征收的关税为公布新对等关税以来最高 水平，主要源于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 2.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能过 剩 行 业 迎 结 构 性 改 善 契 机 》， 2025.7.7 3.《——光引发剂更新②-PCB 需求 复苏+行业集中度提升，光引发剂协 同行情或水到渠成》，2025.7.3 4.《供需关系存在改善预期，光引发 剂景气有望修复》，2025.6.30 5.《SAF 价格持续回升，光引发剂景 气有望修复》，2025.6.30 有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂，有机硅产能有力出清 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 王友舜 建议关注：合盛硅业、新安股份、兴发集团、东岳硅材、三友化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term, with gold prices rising by 1.94% recently. The ongoing tariff issues and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to support gold prices [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with significant increases in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices observed recently [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by the Fed's easing cycle and domestic monetary policies, recommending investments in companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a recent increase in domestic gold prices and discusses the impact of tariff fluctuations on the market [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have shown positive weekly changes, with copper reaching a peak of 10015 USD/ton on the London Metal Exchange [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, have increased, reflecting a growing demand in manufacturing [5][30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend, indicating a mixed outlook for energy metals [5][34]. 2. Market Data - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.03% increase, with various sub-sectors performing differently [36]. 3. Important Events Review - The report discusses recent announcements by US President Trump regarding new tariffs, which are expected to impact the market starting August 1 [42].

郝逸璇 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《PCB 需求复苏+行业集中度提升， 光引发剂协同行情或水到渠成—— 光引发剂更新②》，2025.7.3 2.《供需关系存在改善预期，光引发 剂景气有望修复》，2025.6.30 3.《SAF 价格持续回升，光引发剂景 气有望修复》，2025.6.30 4. 《 关 注 钾 肥 板 块 投 资 机 会 》， 2025.6.22 5.《钾肥大合同落地，关注钾肥景 气！》，2025.6.16 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 07 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 法律声明 本报告仅供德邦证券股份有限公司（以 ...

Investment Strategy - AI application data continues to improve, with high prosperity in edge applications. The monthly active users of ChatGPT reached 655 million in June, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, surpassing X (formerly Twitter). Other notable AI applications include Quark, Baidu Cloud, and Doubao, which have entered the global top ten [12][20] - Initial orders have been released, indicating a resonance in domestic and international computing power demand. China Mobile's AI computing device procurement project for 2025-2026 has been initiated, with bids exceeding 3.2 billion yuan. The establishment of the China Mobile AI Technology Company with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan further supports this trend [13][16] - The supply side is continuously upgrading, with domestic computing power manufacturers entering the IPO stage. Companies like Huida and domestic chip manufacturers are advancing their products, with IPOs for companies like Muxi and Moer Thread being accepted, aiming to raise 3.9 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively [14][18] Industry News - China Mobile's AI server procurement project has been announced, with a total of 7,058 AI servers expected to be procured across six packages, with the largest package exceeding 3.2 billion yuan [16][26] - The "Trusted Data Space Standardization Research Report" seminar was successfully held, emphasizing the importance of standardization in data trading and the development of a robust data space standard system [17] - The demand for AI applications continues to grow, with ByteDance's Cici becoming the fastest-growing overseas application, achieving 24.01 million monthly active users with a growth rate of 17.56% [20][21] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a slight decline of 0.16% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%. The overall performance of the communication sector was weaker than the index, suggesting a focus on AI computing power investment opportunities [21][22] - Recommended focus for the upcoming week includes companies in the AI computing chain such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Shenghong Technology, as well as long-term attention to major operators like China Mobile and China Telecom [25][26]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 07 月 07 日 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn OBBBA 过会与美股新高之后 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨跌参半。美股三大指数集体上涨，道指、标普 500 和纳指涨跌幅 分别为+2.3%、+1.7%和+1.6%；欧洲市场三大主要指数表现分化，英国富时 100 和法国 CAC40 上涨，德国 DAX 指数小幅回调；亚太地区表现分化。 美国制造业表现低迷，服务业略好于预期。根据 ISM 公布的数据显示，美国 6 月 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连续四个月萎缩，显示美国制造业持续低迷。6 月 ISM 非 制造业指数 50.8，略高于预期，美国服务提供商在 6 月份扩张步伐缓慢。 OBBBA 法案过会，引发赤字担忧加剧。7 月 3 日 OBBBA 法案参议院修正版本以 218：214 通过了众议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has lagged behind the broader market, with a weekly increase of +0.8% compared to +1.4% for the Shanghai Composite Index and +1.5% for the ChiNext Index. Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by +7.3%, outperforming both indices by 3.7% and 6.6% respectively [7][19]. - Recent government policies are aimed at addressing excessive competition and promoting structural improvements in the industry. The focus is on enhancing product quality and facilitating the exit of outdated production capacity [7][8]. - The report identifies five key investment themes within the chemical sector, including battery materials, industrial silicon and organic silicon, polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and sucralose, highlighting the potential for structural improvements and demand recovery [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the basic chemical industry is entering a phase of structural improvement due to government policies aimed at reducing excessive competition and promoting quality [7][8]. - It suggests that the industry is likely to experience a new long-term growth cycle, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the exit of outdated production capacity [16][17]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a weekly increase of +0.8%, ranking 16th among 31 sectors, while year-to-date performance is +7.3%, indicating a recovery trend [19]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 224 stocks rose while 194 fell. The top performers included companies like 凯美特气 (+27.5%) and 科拓生物 (+21.9%) [28][29]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report highlights the central government's focus on addressing low-price competition and promoting quality improvements in the chemical industry, which is expected to lead to a more orderly competitive environment [7][8]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The report provides insights into the price movements of various chemical products, indicating significant fluctuations in prices, with some products experiencing notable increases while others faced declines [7][8].

Demand Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total market value of publicly held U.S. Treasury securities is $26.88 trillion, with a face value of $28.45 trillion[15] - The main holders of U.S. Treasuries include overseas investors (33.5%), broad-based mutual funds (18.7%), the Federal Reserve (14.3%), households and nonprofits (10.6%), and state and local governments (6.0%)[17] Overseas Holdings - Since 1996, overseas investors have consistently held over 30% of U.S. Treasuries, but this dropped below 60% for the first time in July 2024[21] - Japan and China have historically been the largest foreign holders, but both have recently reduced their holdings, with Japan's holdings around $1.1 to $1.3 trillion and China's down to $757.2 billion[22][23] Duration Preferences - As of June 2024, foreign official institutions hold U.S. Treasuries with a weighted average maturity (WAM) of approximately 5.3 years, while private investors have a WAM of about 7.3 years[27] - Approximately 28% of overseas holdings are concentrated in the 0-2 year maturity range, with over 60% maturing within 5 years, indicating a preference for shorter durations among foreign official accounts[27] Auction Dynamics - In June 2024, domestic demand supported the 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y maturities, while demand for 3Y, 7Y, and 30Y maturities declined, suggesting a shift in overseas interest towards certain mid- to long-term bonds[6] Future Demand Outlook - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase the U.S. federal deficit significantly, with an estimated $4.1 trillion increase in debt by 2034, potentially raising net supply pressure by several trillion dollars[6] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain structurally stable but may see a retreat from overseas investors, while domestic demand will likely remain passive and stable[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, a resurgence of inflation in the U.S., and deteriorating fiscal prospects leading to unsustainable federal debt levels[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery in demand for photoinitiators driven by the continuous growth in the downstream PCB industry, with various grades of photoinitiators seeing price increases [5] - The global PCB market is expected to recover, with a projected total output value of USD 73.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5] - The concentration of production capacity in the photoinitiator industry is increasing, leading to a more favorable supply-side environment for leading companies [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a significant price increase for various grades of photoinitiators, with the 907 grade price at CNY 88/kg, up 19% year-to-date [5] Demand Side - The demand for photoinitiators is driven by their critical role in photopolymerization systems, with applications in various sectors including electronics, coatings, and healthcare [5] - The global PCB market value was USD 81.74 billion in 2022, declining to USD 69.52 billion in 2023, but is expected to rebound in 2024 [5] Supply Side - China is the world's largest producer and exporter of photoinitiators, with a significant portion of global production capacity concentrated in leading firms [5] - The report notes that leading companies are expanding their production capacities, while weaker firms may face elimination as industry concentration increases [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jiu Ri New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Strongly New Materials as potential investment opportunities [5]