[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 08 月 29 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：17.35 相关研究 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.12 | 6.77 | 7.63 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 0.39 | -7.89 | -9.59 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：内蒙基地 完成产能爬坡，股份回购彰显发展信 心》，2025.5.15 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：内蒙放量 &价差修复，Q1 业绩同比高增》， 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.764 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan, down 29.5% year-on-year [5] - Q2 2025 showed a sequential revenue increase of 2.8% to 7.992 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 11.2% [5][6] - The company is focusing on volume growth and cost improvements, with Q2 performance benefiting from lower coal prices [6] - The report highlights a recovery in certain product prices and a strong cost management strategy, which is expected to strengthen the company's competitive position [6] - The company is advancing multiple projects, including a new amide raw material project and integrated projects nearing completion, which are expected to support long-term growth [6] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.524 billion, 4.203 billion, and 4.739 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.98, and 2.23 yuan [6][8] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 34.025 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 19.5% by 2027, up from 17.1% in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Xin'an Chemical, is positioned as a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with expectations for performance improvement under the backdrop of national policies emphasizing anti-involution [5][8]. - The company has a comprehensive business model that integrates crop protection, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials, leveraging its unique "chlorosilicon-phosphorus" circular economy model [12][5]. - The glyphosate market is expected to see a turning point due to demand recovery and supply disruptions, with the company benefiting from its global market presence and production capacity [5][18]. - The organosilicon sector is anticipated to undergo structural changes in demand, with the company poised to benefit from the end of the expansion cycle and a shift towards high-end applications [5][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xin'an Chemical was established in 1965 and has developed a strong presence in the agricultural chemicals and organosilicon sectors, with a focus on a full-chain integration model in crop protection [12][5]. - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in various industries including electronics and transportation [12][5]. 2. Glyphosate and Organosilicon Market Dynamics - Glyphosate is the world's leading herbicide, with a significant market share, and the company has a production capacity of 80,000 tons per year [5][18]. - The demand for glyphosate is expected to increase due to the growing adoption of genetically modified crops, particularly in China, which is projected to enhance market demand significantly [20][22]. - The organosilicon market is experiencing a shift in demand structure, with the company focusing on high-end applications and innovations in terminal products [5][36]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to see substantial growth in net profit from 388 million yuan in 2025 to 957 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 653.9% and 36.7% respectively [8][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [8][7]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The glyphosate industry is characterized by high concentration, with the company holding a 10% market share in China, benefiting from a favorable supply-side environment [23][26]. - The organosilicon industry is seeing a consolidation of production capacity among leading firms, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its cost advantages and integrated operations [40][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the market recently, with a weekly increase of 2.9% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 3.5% and the ChiNext Index's 5.9% [6][18] - The report highlights the continuous rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases [30] - The organic silicon industry is expected to see a rebound due to collaborative efforts to stabilize prices and reduce low-price competition [31] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics are expected to create investment opportunities in the chemical sector [15] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved domestic supply-side conditions and increased global market share [15] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has increased by 2.9% in the week of August 15-22, 2025, ranking 15th among 31 industry sectors [18] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 22.5%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.4% [18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Out of 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 327 stocks rose while 96 fell during the week [27] - The top-performing stocks included Feilu Co. (+33.2%) and Qide New Materials (+31.8%) [27] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - SAF prices reached $2270 per ton, up 150 USD from the previous week, while UCO prices reached 8000 CNY per ton [30] - The report notes the upcoming organic silicon industry seminar aimed at promoting healthy development within the sector [30]

Investment Strategy - Concerns over Nvidia's security may accelerate the replacement of domestic chips, creating a vacuum in the supply of computing chips in China. Recent advancements in domestic computing cards are expected to drive rapid development in the related industry chain. Nvidia's H20 computing chip has been reported to have serious security issues, which could negatively impact its future orders in the Chinese market. In 2024, over 50% of the data center accelerator cards in China are expected to be inference cards, with domestic computing cards projected to account for over 40% by the first half of 2025. The domestic accelerated computing server market is expected to grow by 97.3% year-on-year in 2024 and by 52.9% in 2025 [10][12][13] - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1 is expected to enhance the usability of domestic computing cards in large model applications. The V3.1 version supports UE8M0 FP8 precision, which significantly reduces storage and improves computational throughput compared to traditional FP16 and FP32 formats. This advancement is anticipated to lead to a qualitative leap in the application of domestic computing cards [11][14] - The demand for computing infrastructure from operators and cloud vendors is clear, with capital expenditures expected to increase in the second half of the year. The three major operators reported good growth in computing-related business revenues, with China Telecom's cloud service revenue at 57.3 billion yuan, China Unicom's at 37.6 billion yuan, and China Mobile's at 56.1 billion yuan. Capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 are projected to be 494 billion yuan for China Telecom, 348 billion yuan for China Unicom, and 928 billion yuan for China Mobile, accounting for 59.1%, 63.3%, and 61.4% of their annual expenditures respectively [12][13][18] Industry News - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite internet 09 group marks a significant step in China's satellite internet development, with the country entering a high-density launch phase. This mission was the 590th flight of the Long March series of rockets, and it is expected to enhance the satellite internet network [15][16] - The budget for the 2025 rocket launch service procurement project by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. is approximately 1.336 billion yuan, with a focus on launching 94 satellites across seven missions. This indicates a growing emphasis on satellite internet and commercial space development in China [16][17] - Capital expenditures by the three major operators in the first half of 2025 were the lowest in recent years, totaling 112.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year. However, there is an expectation of increased investment in AI and computing infrastructure in the second half of the year, which could significantly boost the domestic computing chain [18][19] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a significant increase of 10.47% this week, outperforming major indices. The IDC and optical module sectors continued to lead gains, with increases of 14.59% and 14.41% respectively. The overall performance of the communication sector suggests strong investment opportunities in domestic computing chains and satellite internet [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 分歧终弥合，静待新变量 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 薛威 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 鲍威尔讲话弥合 9 月降息分歧，市场情绪受到提振。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上 的讲话释放鸽派信号，其表示"就业的下行风险正在增加"、"基准前景和不断变化 的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场"，意味着 9 月降息的最后分歧被弥合。整 体来看，鲍威尔此次的放鸽超出市场的预期，在讲话之前，市场大多预期鲍威尔会 继续维持鹰派态度，原因有二：第一，杰克逊霍尔会议前多位美联储官员放出鹰派 风声，似在引导市场预期，CME 模型显示降息 25bp 的概率一度降至 75%；第二， 鲍威尔任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束，在此之前维持谨慎 ...

Consumer Trends - The new consumption sector continues to gain momentum, with A-shares experiencing a valuation increase driven by emotional consumption, channel innovation, and brand expansion overseas[4] - In the first half of 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment volume was 20.63 million units, a year-on-year decline of 6.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6%[28] - The global IP toy market is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2025, with China's market growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.90% from 2019 to 2023, significantly higher than the global rate of 9.30%[8] High-end Manufacturing - Liquid cooling technology is identified as a key solution for data centers to address energy consumption issues, potentially reducing Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to below 1.1[4] - The energy consumption of AI data centers is projected to reach 77.7 TWh in 2025, doubling from 2023, with a CAGR of 44.8% from 2022 to 2027[16] - Liquid cooling solutions can achieve energy savings of over 20%-30%, providing both economic and environmental benefits[18] Hard Technology - The penetration rate of foldable smartphones is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2025 to over 3% by 2027, driven by Apple's entry into the market and ongoing price reductions[31] - The total cost of foldable smartphones is significantly higher than non-foldable models, with display/touch modules and lenses seeing increases of 177% and 28% respectively[38] - In 2025, foldable smartphone shipments are projected to reach 19.8 million units, maintaining the same penetration rate as 2024[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for precious metals due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates as early as September. This is seen as a strong signal for gold prices to rise, supported by a weakening dollar and increasing gold-silver ratios [4][5]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed performance, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel experiencing slight declines. However, significant infrastructure projects in Tibet are anticipated to boost overall demand and metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for small metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are also noted for price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a favorable outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, in light of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have varied, with copper at 78,690 CNY/ton (-0.3%), aluminum at 20,630 CNY/ton (-0.4%), and nickel at 119,610 CNY/ton (-1.3%). The report notes a general decline in prices but anticipates demand recovery from infrastructure projects [27][28]. 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for rare earths, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 15.6% [29]. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, reflecting increased demand in manufacturing [32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have increased, with lithium concentrate priced at 7,155 CNY/ton. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring future demand for energy metals [35]. 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.33% increase, with specific segments like small metals rising by 10.53% [36]. 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights a significant dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, indicating potential interest rate cuts, which could positively impact precious metals [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's main business remains stable, with a short-term impact from impairment and scrapping [5] - The company reported a revenue of 90.901 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom due to improving product prices and demand in Q3 2025 [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 47.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [5] - The sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals increased by 14.5%, 7.8%, and 35.4% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 12.2% and 7.0%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] Future Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its growth in the medium to long term, including a new 700,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion project expected to be operational by Q2 2026 [6] - The company is also involved in a joint venture to build a 1.6 million-ton/year specialty polyolefin project, which will significantly enhance its international presence [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit of 13.876 billion yuan, 17.142 billion yuan, and 19.971 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.43, 5.48, and 6.38 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a traditional steel structure manufacturer to a resource-oriented enterprise, driven by its dual focus on steel structures and potash fertilizer production [4][10]. - The potash fertilizer market is expected to experience price increases due to ongoing supply disruptions and a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4][29]. - The company has significant growth potential in the potash sector, with plans to expand production capacity and explore additional resource opportunities [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Structure and Potash Fertilizer Dual Drive - The company has evolved from a single steel structure focus to a dual business model that includes potash fertilizer, following strategic acquisitions and expansions [4][10]. 2. Potash Fertilizer Supply Disruptions and Price Trends - Global potash supply is constrained, with major producers announcing production cuts, which is likely to sustain upward price pressure [4][44]. - The global potash market is characterized by a significant supply-demand mismatch, with major production concentrated in a few countries [39][40]. 3. Successful Overseas Expansion and Product Diversification - The company has successfully established a presence in the potash market, with production capacity reaching 1 million tons per year and plans for further expansion [12][18]. - The company is also diversifying its product offerings through investments in other mineral resources, such as phosphates [6][12]. 4. Mining Sector Layout and Transition to Resource-Oriented Enterprise - The company has made strategic investments in mining, including acquiring stakes in phosphate projects, to enhance its resource base [6][10]. - The company is actively developing potash resources in Laos, which is expected to contribute significantly to its growth [4][6]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve substantial growth in net profit, with estimates of 1.1 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 95.5% [5][6].