Market Analysis - The A-share market exhibited a mixed performance with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, closing at 4116.94 points, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.70% to 14255.13 points [2] - The overall market turnover was 2.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 6.4% from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in trading activity but still within a historically high range [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market with a gain of 2.91%, driven by rising international gold prices and geopolitical tensions [5] - The technology sector also performed strongly, with significant increases in GPU, advanced packaging, and circuit board indices, reflecting a robust market sentiment [5] - Conversely, financial and consumer sectors faced downward pressure, with declines in banking, coal, food and beverage, and consumer services stocks [5] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a mixed performance, with long-term contracts experiencing significant gains, particularly the 30-year contract which rose by 0.75% [11] - The central bank's net injection of 122.7 billion yuan through reverse repos indicates a continued effort to maintain liquidity in the market [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index increased by 0.40%, with strong performance in new energy metals and precious metals, while real estate-related commodities faced pressure [11] - International gold prices reached a new high, peaking at 4888.43 USD/ounce, reflecting a threefold increase since September 2022 [11] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key investment themes, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all supported by government policies and technological advancements [14] - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the non-ferrous metals sector remains strong due to supply constraints and a weaker dollar [14][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1] Core Insights - The aerospace sector is transitioning from being viewed as a "cost center" driven by national will to a "growth engine" driven by commercial demand, with significant investments and strategic planning from both the US and China [6][9] - The global aerospace economy is projected to reach $613 billion in 2024, with commercial aerospace contributing 78%, and is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2032 [6][9] - The value chain of commercial aerospace is divided into five core levels: "space, ground, terminal, rocket, and application," each presenting unique market opportunities and technical challenges from 2026 to 2030 [10][29] Summary by Sections 1. Space: Satellite Manufacturing - The satellite manufacturing market in China is expected to grow from approximately 7.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 39.4 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a shift from sporadic research models to continuous, batch engineering deliveries [16][18] 2. Ground: Ground Systems - The ground systems market is projected to increase from around 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 39.1 billion yuan by 2030, evolving from a supporting role to a core infrastructure essential for stable satellite constellation operations [21][22] 3. Terminal: Key Variable for Commercial Aerospace - The terminal market is anticipated to grow from 500 million yuan in 2025 to about 141.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by multiple vertical industries and potential consumer scenarios [23][24] 4. Rocket: Core Constraint - The cost of rocket launches is a critical constraint, with reusable technology expected to reduce costs by 80%-90% compared to traditional expendable rockets. The market for rocket launch services is projected to grow from approximately 10.7 billion yuan in 2025 to about 34.3 billion yuan by 2030 [25][26] 5. Application: Final Value Realization - The application market is expected to expand from 200 million yuan in 2025 to 525 billion yuan by 2030, with the revenue share from applications projected to rise from single digits to over 67% by around 2030 [27][28] 6. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in commercial aerospace can be categorized into three main tracks: 1. Launch and manufacturing segments, which are expected to benefit directly from increased orders and visibility 2. Core components and systems, characterized by high technical barriers and critical for long-term competitiveness 3. Downstream applications and operational services, which, while currently limited in scale, hold the greatest long-term potential for value realization [29][30]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced adjustments with a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a shift from high-valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.01% at 4113.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.97% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.79% [6][7]. - The real estate sector showed resilience, with the Real Estate II sector leading gains at 1.54%. The Guangzhou Housing Bureau announced plans to stabilize the real estate market, which may attract funds into the previously undervalued real estate sector [7][8]. - Despite market adjustments, there remains a preference for profitable sectors, with some technology sub-sectors, like robotics, showing significant price increases [7][8]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market saw an overall increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.52% to 111.490 yuan. The 10-year contract increased by 0.13% to 108.180 yuan [11]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 324 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan for the day. Short-term interest rates, such as the overnight Shibor, rose by 5.50 basis points to 1.3740% [11]. - The January LPR remained stable for the eighth consecutive month, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. There is potential for future rate cuts, which could support bond market sentiment [11]. Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with lithium carbonate prices hitting a ceiling, closing at 160,500 yuan per ton, a 9% increase. This surge is attributed to the government's focus on green transition and energy transformation [11][13]. - Precious metals continued to perform strongly, with silver rising nearly 4% and gold prices reaching new highs. The geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. tariffs on imports from several countries, are driving demand for safe-haven assets [11][13]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all supported by government policies and technological advancements [13][15]. - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption upgrades, while brokerage firms may see increased activity as A-share market volumes stabilize around 30 trillion yuan [13][15]. - The precious metals sector is likely to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][15].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced upward volatility on January 19, 2026, with a slight decrease in trading volume, closing at 4114 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, up 0.29% [6][8] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [6][8] - The technology sector showed continued rotation, with strong performance in specific sectors such as ultra-high voltage and aerospace [7][8] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22% to 110.920 yuan [10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 158.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [10] - The release of key economic data, including GDP figures, is expected to influence bond market prices, with a potential for further interest rate cuts in 2026 [10][13] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market saw a majority decline, with notable drops in base metals, particularly tin, which fell by 5.98% [10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, reached new highs due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The recent adjustments in tin futures margin policies and ongoing conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are contributing to supply concerns, potentially keeping tin prices strong [10][11] Investment Themes and Opportunities - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer upgrades, all supported by government policies [11][13] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from increased trading volumes in the A-share market, which recently surpassed 3 trillion yuan [11][13] - The precious metals sector is likely to remain strong due to central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [11][13]

Economic Overview - The GDP for 2025 reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, meeting the initial target of around 5%[1] - The contribution rates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries to GDP growth were 5.8%, 32.8%, and 61.4% respectively, with their respective shares in GDP being 6.7%, 35.6%, and 57.7%[1] Quarterly Performance - GDP growth rates for the four quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5%, indicating a trend of decreasing growth[1] - The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 was 1.2%, slowing down by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[1] Industrial and Service Sector Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.9%, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.4%, both outpacing overall economic growth[5] - Exports from large-scale industrial enterprises reached 15.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 485,186 billion yuan, marking a decline of 3.8%, the lowest since 1992[7] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, and real estate investment fell by 17.2%[8] Consumer and Employment Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 501,202 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the overall economic growth rate[7] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous year[11] Population and Income Insights - By the end of 2025, the national population was 1,404.89 million, reflecting a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year[11] - The per capita disposable income was 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5%, aligning with economic growth[11] Future Economic Projections - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%[13] - Factors such as improved corporate profits and supportive policies are expected to bolster consumption growth in 2026[13]

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to show differentiation with a slight increase in trading volume, as of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26% to 4101.91 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.2% [4][3] - The overall market saw 2370 stocks rise and 2971 stocks fall, indicating a preference for profit-making opportunities [4] Sector Performance - The technology sector remains relatively strong, particularly in chip stocks, with TSMC expected to increase capital expenditure to between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026 [7][8] - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend, supported by ample liquidity of 3 trillion, despite some restrictions from margin policy adjustments [8] Bond Market - The bond market showed a general upward trend, with the 10-year treasury futures rising by 0.01% to 108.065 [11] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to lower the cost of funds for financial institutions [11][17] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced a decline, with lithium carbonate prices dropping by 8.99% on January 16, 2026 [11] - The recent fluctuations in lithium prices are attributed to policy changes regarding the recycling of used batteries, which may positively impact the battery recycling industry [11] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [16] - The report suggests that the market's slow bull trend is likely to continue, with a focus on sectors that have seen less trading activity recently [14]

Monetary Supply and Financing - The growth rate of total social financing (TSF) in December 2025 was 8.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 8.5%[1] - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5% in December 2025, up from 8.0% in November[1] - M1 growth rate fell to 3.8%, down from 4.9% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in active funds[1] - The "scissors difference" between M2 and M1 expanded to 4.7%, compared to 3.1% in November, marking the highest level since June 2025[3] Loan and Deposit Trends - New RMB loans in December 2025 amounted to approximately 0.91 trillion yuan, significantly higher than November's 0.39 trillion yuan, but still down by 800 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - Total new deposits rose to 1.68 trillion yuan in December 2025, up from 1.41 trillion yuan in November, with a year-end deposit balance of 328.64 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth[2] - The proportion of RMB loans to the total social financing stock decreased to 60.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a shift towards direct financing channels[2] Policy Adjustments and Economic Outlook - On January 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, aimed at lowering financing costs in key sectors[3] - The central bank's actions are expected to maintain a loose monetary environment, with further room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in 2026[4] - The focus of monetary policy is shifting towards targeted support for specific sectors, such as technology innovation and private enterprises, rather than broad-based easing[4]

Market Analysis - The A-share market shows a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4112.60, down 0.33%, marking three consecutive days of decline, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 [2] - The overall market turnover decreased significantly to 2.94 trillion yuan, down approximately 1 trillion yuan from the previous day, indicating a contraction in trading activity [2][7] - The market saw a divergence in performance, with 2226 stocks rising and 3121 falling, reflecting a notable reduction in profit-making opportunities compared to earlier periods [2] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors led the gains, with advanced packaging, photolithography machines, semiconductor materials, and HBM index rising by 3.79%, 3.76%, 3.66%, and 3.27% respectively, driven by U.S. tariffs on certain semiconductor imports [5] - Conversely, sectors that had previously surged, such as commercial aerospace and AI applications, faced significant declines, with commercial aerospace down 4.46% and AI application stocks experiencing a drop of 5.78% [5][7] Policy and Economic Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is signaling a loosening monetary policy, with structural interest rate cuts expected to support credit growth and stabilize the market [12] - The PBOC's recent actions include a net injection of liquidity through reverse repos and a reduction in the rates for relending and rediscounting, aimed at enhancing support for key sectors [12] - The M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a widening gap, suggesting that while liquidity is ample, short-term corporate vitality remains weak, necessitating further policy measures to boost economic activity [11][12] Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 0.51%, with a mixed performance across sectors; however, non-ferrous metals showed strength, particularly tin, which surged by 8.30% [15] - Tin prices remain robust due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and production issues in Myanmar, alongside increased demand from the semiconductor industry [15] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [17] - The report suggests a continued bullish trend in non-ferrous metals, indicating potential investment opportunities in this area [20]

2026 年 01 月 15 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 （一）出口连续正增，非美地区提供增量 2025 年 12 月当月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比 6.6%，在上月 5.9%的基础上 继续攀升，外需整体维持韧性的同时，我国产业出口竞争力更是得到凸显。 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 贸易景气延续高企 ——2025 年 12 月进出口数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：2025 年 12 月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比+6.6%，进口金额（美元 计价）同比+5.7%，均显著高于前值；按人民币计价，出口和进口金额同比分别为 5.2%与+4.4%；贸易顺差进一步扩大至 1141.4 亿美元。我们认为外贸整体的回暖 是欧洲及其他非美市场需求强劲叠加我国强大的出口竞争力带来的结果，给我国 经济提供了强大的支撑和坚实 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced significant volatility with a trading volume approaching 4 trillion, indicating sustained trading enthusiasm [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2% to nearly 4200 points before closing down 0.31% at 4126.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw increases of 0.56% and 0.82% respectively [3] - The overall market saw 2742 stocks rise and 2591 stocks fall, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors [3] Policy and Structural Trends - The increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts is a counter-cyclical adjustment aimed at reducing leverage, which may lead to profit-taking in high-leverage stocks [6][7] - The AI application sector remains strong, with significant gains in stocks related to Pinduoduo and Xiaohongshu, supported by government policies promoting innovation in e-commerce and AI [6][7] - The market is currently in a critical window for policy catalysis and industrial rotation, with a slow bull market expected to continue despite short-term adjustments [12] Bond Market Insights - The bond futures market showed mixed performance, with long-term contracts slightly declining while medium and short-term contracts increased [9] - The central bank maintained a net injection of liquidity, indicating a continued "moderately loose" monetary policy stance, which is expected to support long-term bond investments [9][12] Commodity Market Developments - The commodity index rose by 0.97%, with silver and tin prices increasing by approximately 8%, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand in the semiconductor industry [9][11] - The silver price reached a new high, with London silver surpassing $90 per ounce, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand [9][11] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and consumer goods, all supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [11][12] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted due to increased trading volumes in the A-share market, indicating potential growth opportunities [11]