[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 09 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 A 股小幅调整，商品跌多涨少 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 9 日周二，A 股市场小幅缩量调整；国债期货市场回暖；商品 期货普遍下跌，工业品延续承压。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：主要行业板块涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1）股票市场：缩量分化调整，跌多涨少 缩量分化调整，跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现分化格局，主要指数涨跌互现，科 技成长板块逆势走强，周期与地产链深度调整。上证指数低开后震荡下行，收盘报 3909.52 点，下跌 0.37%；深证成指报 13277.36 点，跌 0.39%；创业板指表现亮 眼 ...

资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 12 月 9 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 出口回暖，验证韧性 ——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：2025 年 11 月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比 5.9%，进口金额（美元 计价）同比+1.9%；按人民币计价，出口和进口金额同比分别为 5.7%与+1.7%； 均显著高于前值，我们认为外贸整体的回暖是欧洲与日韩市场需求修复叠加我国 强大的出口竞争力带来的结果，而连续正增的进口凸显内需韧性，高企的顺差凸显 我国的外贸竞争力。 一、对美经贸回落，难阻出口回暖，对欧与日韩出口显著回升 2025 年 11 月当月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比 5.9%，迅速扭转了上月转负的 状态，海外需求修复的背景下，我国产业出口竞 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 1. 政策总基调更加突出"提质增效" 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。与 2024 年 12.9 政治局会议相比，表述已由"稳中求进、以进促稳"调整为"稳中求进、提质 增效"，显示宏观政策的基本取向没有变，但战术重点有所调整。去年提出"实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强 超常规逆周期调节"，工作的重点在于通过一系列政策"组合拳"，推动宏观经 济企稳向好，逆周期调节成为主要着力方向。今年会议在"继续实施更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"的基础上，着重提出"加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能"。会议重提跨周期调节，意味着追 求短期经济增速目标的迫切性有所淡化，兼顾中长期结构优化和改革深化的 必要性有所上升。 2. 更加重视"协同"和"集成" 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 何明洋 邮箱：hemy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 关键词从"以进促稳"到"提质增效" ——12.8 政 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 市场成交额重回 2 万亿 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 8 日周一，A 股市场延续上行，成交额重回 2 万亿；国债期 货市场震荡分化，长债维持弱势；商品指数下跌，双焦大幅下挫。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨 成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨。12 月 8 日 A 股核心指数集体走强，成长风格显著 占优，上证收于 3,924.08 点，上涨 0.54%；深证表现更强，收于 13,329.99 点， 上涨 1.39%；创业板指收于 3,190.27 点，上涨 2.60%，领涨各核心指数；科创 50 收于 1,350.80 点，上涨 1.86%。全市场成交额重回 2 万亿元，量能较上一交易日 显著放大 18%，显示增量资金 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第一期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 过去两周的全球市场主要受流动性层面的影响，特别是FOMC议息会议即将在12月10日进行和美联 储新主席人选即将公布的背景下。 12月FOMC降息的概率在过去两周逐步升高，这也带来了美元指数的弱势和全球风险资产的普遍强势。 日央行行长对于可能加息的言论引发了市场波动，也带来了日元汇率的反弹和全球发达市场无风险 利率的普遍回升，给全球风险资产带来了一定的扰动。 整体来看，过去两周全球股市与商品表现不错，发达市场国债利率迎来回升，美元弱势带来非美 货币涨多跌少。 股市：全球迎普涨行情，其中科技板块强势领涨；A股通信、国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息预期抬升，发达市场无风险利率回升；30Y中债国债利率显著攀升，信用利差走扩； 商品：全球大宗 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 05 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 大金融强势领涨 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 5 日周五，A 股市场午后在大金融带领下强势上涨，成交额 放量至 1.7 万亿以上；国债期货市场震荡回暖；商品指数微涨，工业品延续偏弱。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：放量上涨，大金融领涨 午后拉升，主要指数全线上行。今日 A 股核心指数集体走强，金融、成长与周期 板块形成合力，推动市场情绪持续回暖。上证指数低开高走后震荡回升，午后在金 融带动下突破 3900 点整数关口，收盘报 3902.81 点，涨幅 0.70%；深证成指表现 更强，全天维持上行态势，收报 13147.68 点，涨幅 1.08%；创业板指收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yongtai Energy (600157.SH) [2] Core Views - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan, aiming to buy back A-shares worth between 300 million to 500 million RMB, which is expected to enhance market confidence and optimize the capital structure [9] - Yongtai Energy has been included in the CSI A500 Index, highlighting its leading position and investment value, which may attract more long-term investors [9] - The construction progress of the Haizetan coal mine is ahead of schedule, with expected production capacity reaching 10 million tons per year by 2027 [9] - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 348 million, 972 million, and 1.524 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous forecasts [9] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 21,817.76 million [7] - Current price: 1.61 RMB [2] - Market capitalization: 35,999.31 million RMB [7] - Revenue forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 28,357 million, 25,143 million, 27,193 million, and 28,714 million RMB respectively [7] - Net profit forecast for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 1,561 million, 348 million, 972 million, and 1,524 million RMB respectively [7] - Gross margin for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 25.1%, 19.7%, 23.0%, and 24.2% respectively [7] - Return on equity for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027: 3.3%, 0.7%, 2.0%, and 3.1% respectively [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a weak sentiment with major indices showing a general decline, particularly in the growth sectors which are adjusting more significantly than value sectors [3][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878.00 points, down 0.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78% to 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.12% to 3036.79 points [3] Stock Market Analysis - The market lacks a clear leading sector, with significant fluctuations observed in the commercial aerospace sector, influenced by recent rocket launch news [6][10] - Defensive sectors and some cyclical stocks are showing resilience against the overall market decline, suggesting a rotation in investment strategies [6][7] Bond Market Insights - The bond futures market is characterized by a clear differentiation in performance across maturities, with long-term bonds underperforming while mid to short-term bonds are stabilizing [10] - The 30-year bond contract saw a decline of 0.26%, while the 10-year bond contract increased by 0.06%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the bond market [10] Commodity Market Trends - Financial commodities are outperforming industrial commodities, with the Nanhua Commodity Index down 0.28% while industrial products are under pressure [10][11] - The industrial product index has decreased by 7.19% since the beginning of the year, reflecting weak demand and a contraction in manufacturing activity [10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between technology and dividend stocks to hedge against sector rotation risks [7][12] - Focus on structural opportunities in undervalued defensive sectors and industries aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" trends [7][12] Recent Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include dividend stocks for their attractive yields, AI applications driven by major tech advancements, and consumer sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [12] - The brokerage sector is highlighted due to active trading volumes and potential changes in trading regulations [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3900 points, specifically at 3914.01 points, reflecting a 0.65% rise on December 1, 2025 [3][5] - The total market turnover reached 1.89 trillion yuan, marking an 18.3% increase compared to the previous trading day, indicating a broad recovery in market sentiment [3][5] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors led the market gains, with the consumer electronics sector showing notable performance. Key products like smart speakers and TWS headphones saw increases of 5.86% and 3.37%, respectively [5] - The precious metals sector also performed well, with international silver prices reaching a historical high and copper prices hitting a yearly peak, contributing to a 2.86% rise in the non-ferrous metals sector [8] Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the market is in a policy preheating phase, with expectations for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference to potentially signal stronger economic stimulus measures [5][7] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to over 80%, which could enhance global liquidity and risk appetite [5][7] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a balanced allocation between technology and dividend-paying stocks to hedge against sector rotation risks [11][13] - Key investment themes include AI applications, consumer spending, and brokerage firms, with a focus on monitoring market turnover and potential changes in trading regulations [11][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with short-term government bonds showing strength while long-term bonds may experience slight adjustments due to profit-taking [8][13] - The central bank's liquidity management and the evolution of credit risks in the real estate sector are highlighted as critical factors to watch [8][13] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity index rose by 0.93%, with significant gains in precious metals and basic metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as the anticipated Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [8][14] - The report notes a rebound in the black coal sector after previous declines, with coking coal prices increasing by 2.73% [14]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 全球策略月报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 海外市场：货币政策方面，美联储内部分化加剧，12 月是否降息存在不确定性。 当前 CME 模型预期 12 月降息的概率重新回升至 80%以上，但我们认为 12 月或 明年 1 月降息对于实体经济的影响差异并不大，耐心等待 FOMC 会议中的指引或 是更好的选择。产业方面，谷歌 Gemini 3 或重塑 AI 产业格局，行业内部或迎来 分化。 展望 12 月，我们认为美股 AI 板块整体情绪或阶段性放缓，美股整体缺乏明确方 向，或维持高位震荡。截止 11 月末，美国科技七巨头的市值已经占到标普 500 的 33%，占纳斯达克指数的 48%。资本开支是驱动美股 AI 板块持续上行的重要因 素，但我们认为这个逻辑已经出现松动迹象，原因有三：第一，市场或担忧于资 本开支增速放缓。从七巨头中英伟达的下游公司来看，2025 年微软、谷歌、亚马 逊和 Meta 的资本开支占经营活动 ...