[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2024年05月21日 618 大促首次取消预售，看好国 商贸零售 货美妆持续抢占份额 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 ——美妆&零售板块周报 0521 易丁依 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn  周专题：618大促首次取消预售，国货延续性价比优势+积极推新完善产品矩阵， 看好大促期间排名继续提升，持续验证品牌力。 市场表现 618大促总结：平台取消预售机制，围绕价格力竞争。今年618大促各大平台  取消了预售机制，可能会对品牌方产生以下影响：（1）增加库存备货率，尤其 商贸零售 沪深300 7% 对于服装、生鲜等非标准品；（2）退货率或有提高。此外，平台本次大促延续 0% 23年双十一低价思路，围绕价格力展开竞争。 -7% 李佳琦预售：核心品牌参与力度增长，折扣力度微降。与李佳琦合作力度来看， -15%  -22% 国货核心品牌投入力度持续加大，SKU基本上有所增加或持平，但折扣力度相 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 -29% 较于去 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2024年05月21日 618 大促首次取消预售，看好国 商贸零售 货美妆持续抢占份额 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 ——美妆&零售板块周报 0521 易丁依 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn  周专题：618大促首次取消预售，国货延续性价比优势+积极推新完善产品矩阵， 看好大促期间排名继续提升，持续验证品牌力。 市场表现 618大促总结：平台取消预售机制，围绕价格力竞争。今年618大促各大平台  取消了预售机制，可能会对品牌方产生以下影响：（1）增加库存备货率，尤其 商贸零售 沪深300 7% 对于服装、生鲜等非标准品；（2）退货率或有提高。此外，平台本次大促延续 0% 23年双十一低价思路，围绕价格力展开竞争。 -7% 李佳琦预售：核心品牌参与力度增长，折扣力度微降。与李佳琦合作力度来看， -15%  -22% 国货核心品牌投入力度持续加大，SKU基本上有所增加或持平，但折扣力度相 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 -29% 较于去 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 房地产 2024年05月21日 房地产 政策持续加码，期待行业复苏 房地产行业周报（2024.5.13-5.17） 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 金文曦 资格编号：S0120522100001  市场回顾 邮箱：jinwx＠tebon.com.cn 2024.5.13-5.17，上证综指数下跌0.02%，沪深300指数上涨0.32%，房地产板块上 研究助理 涨12.65%，房地产板块跑赢上证综指12.67个百分点，跑赢沪深300指数12.33个 百分点。年初至今，上证综指上涨 6.02%，沪深 300 指数上涨 7.19%，房地产板块 蔡萌萌 上涨1.85%，房地产板块跑输上证综指4.17个百分点，跑输沪深300指数5.34个百 邮箱：caimm＠tebon.com.cn 分点。 上周，重点关注的A股地产股中特发服务、我爱我家、滨江集团涨幅居前，*ST中迪、 市场表现 广汇物流、万通发展跌幅较大；重点关注的 H 股地产股中花样年控股、德信中国涨 房地产 沪深300 幅居前；重点关注的港股物业及代建公司的彩生活、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The central theme of the report is the positive impact of recent policy adjustments aimed at stimulating demand in the real estate market, including a reduction in housing loan rates and down payment requirements [2][5] - The report anticipates that these measures will gradually restore market confidence and improve sales in the real estate sector [2][5] Summary by Sections Policy Adjustments - On May 17, 2024, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, with new rates set at 2.35% for loans of five years or less and 2.85% for loans over five years for first-time buyers [1] - The minimum down payment for first-time homebuyers was adjusted to no less than 15%, while for second homes, it was set at no less than 25%, both down by 5 percentage points from previous levels [2] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the adjustments are expected to lower the barriers to home purchasing, thereby stimulating potential demand [2] - The central bank's establishment of a 300 billion yuan special loan for affordable housing is projected to facilitate the acquisition of unsold properties by state-owned enterprises, potentially leading to an additional 500 billion yuan in bank loans [2] Inventory Management - The report discusses the government's strategy to address the surplus of unsold properties by encouraging the purchase of these units for affordable housing, which is expected to improve cash flow for developers [3][5] - The report notes that the government aims to collect and construct 8.7 million units of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant construction tasks still ahead in 2024-2025 [2] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from urban village renovations and government purchases of unsold properties, such as Chengjian Development and Tianjian Group [5] - It also recommends developers with land reserves in high-potential cities, like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, as well as intermediary platforms benefiting from property exchanges [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is at a new turning point with significant government support and funding initiatives aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance and innovation [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Government Budget Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to improve with the issuance of long-term special bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, aimed at major national strategies and security capabilities [2] - The Ministry of Finance has outlined plans for 22 issuances of general and special bonds from May to November 2024, focusing on 20, 30, and 50-year maturities [2] - Local governments are accelerating the implementation of financial subsidies for equipment renewal loans, promoting support for technological upgrades [2] Funding Support for Technological Innovation - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending program has been established to support technological innovation and equipment upgrades, with a low interest rate of 1.75% [3] - The central budget for 2024 allocates 468.8 billion yuan for core technology breakthroughs and high-level technological self-reliance [3] Policy Developments in the Industry - Continuous efforts are being made to establish reliable safety standards for procurement in government agencies, with recent updates to procurement requirements for computers [3] - The demand for domestic alternatives in government and various industries is increasing, as evidenced by recent procurement results showing 100% domestic sourcing [3] Investment Recommendations - Key areas of focus include foundational software and hardware, with recommended companies such as China Great Wall, China Software, and Kingsoft [4] - The industry of information technology innovation (信创) is highlighted, with companies like Topoint Software and Zhiyuan Interconnect recommended for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing further sales decline and investment pressure, with April's national commodity housing sales area down 17.12% year-on-year and total sales amount down 29.17% year-on-year [4][6] - Despite the ongoing sales decline, policy adjustments are being made to stimulate demand, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans [6] - The report highlights that the financing environment for real estate developers remains challenging, with total funds received by developers down 24.9% year-on-year [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector has seen a significant decline in sales, with a 23.8% year-on-year drop in sales area from January to April 2024 [7] - The sales amount for the same period decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, indicating a continued downturn in market activity [7] Policy Environment - The report notes that the government has been optimizing policies since January 2024, including the establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism, which has led to a loan approval amount of 935 billion yuan for "white list" projects [4][6] - Recent policy changes include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan rate and the removal of the minimum interest rate for commercial housing loans [4][6] Investment Trends - The report suggests that the market may stabilize and recover as the financing coordination mechanism is implemented and as policies facilitating the exchange of old for new homes are enacted [6] - It recommends focusing on companies with quality land reserves in core urban areas, such as Binjiang Group, Yuexiu Property, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, among others [6]

Industrial Growth - The national industrial added value for January to April increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to January to March[1] - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.7% year-on-year, up by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.97%[1] - The growth is influenced by factors such as holiday timing and high base effects from the previous year, with expectations for internal momentum in industrial enterprises to be stimulated as policies take effect by the end of 2023[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to April saw a cumulative growth rate of 4.2%, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.7% and infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) increasing by 6.0%[31] - Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, with new housing starts, construction, and completions all showing negative growth[31] - High-tech industries are leading the acceleration in manufacturing investment, with high-tech manufacturing and services growing by 9.7% and 14.5% respectively[65] Policy Impact - The government is expected to accelerate the implementation of policies aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades, which will support manufacturing investment[7] - The issuance of an additional 1 trillion yuan in government bonds is anticipated to increase the fiscal deficit rate to approximately 3.8%[10] - Demand-side policies are crucial for restoring industrial enterprise confidence, as highlighted in the central work conference[3] Consumer Behavior - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.1%, accounting for 23.9% of total retail sales of consumer goods[2] - The consumer market is showing signs of recovery, although the automobile market is experiencing a slowdown[37] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate for January to April was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating overall stability in the employment situation[30]

Economic Data Insights - The U.S. April CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates were 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, meeting expectations but lower than previous values[2] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate slowed to 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%[2] - April retail sales growth rate was 0%, falling short of the expected 0.4%[2] - The Conference Board's leading economic index for April dropped to -0.6%, indicating weakening economic strength[2] Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish tone, indicating that multiple inflation data points are needed before considering rate cuts[2] - Powell stated that the first quarter inflation data has weakened confidence, making it difficult for the Fed to decide on rate reductions[2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is currently at 49%, showing a slight increase from the previous week[60] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices have reached new highs, with the three major indices rising between 1% and 2.5%[46] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively[46] - Emerging markets in Asia, such as Vietnam's VN30 and India's SENSEX30, also showed strong performance, rising by 2.6% and 1.7%[46] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict[24][25][61] - The geopolitical situation and U.S. election dynamics are becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to market volatility[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media industry index (SW) declined by 5.23% in April 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.09% [21] - The report highlights the growth potential in AI, VR, and the digital economy, emphasizing the importance of policy support for the cultural and platform economy [2][36] - The gaming market in China saw a year-on-year growth of 7.60% in Q1 2024, with a market size of 726.38 billion yuan [28] - The film industry experienced a decline in box office revenue, with April 2024 box office totaling 2.238 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [30] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In April 2024, the media sector underperformed compared to major indices, with sub-sectors like media and advertising marketing seeing declines of 6.62% and 7.54% respectively [21][25] - The Hong Kong internet sector outperformed, with an 8.36% increase [25] Monthly Data Tracking - The gaming market's mobile segment generated 528.95 billion yuan, growing 8.63% year-on-year, while the client game market reached 167.71 billion yuan, with a 1.48% year-on-year increase [28] - The film industry saw a total of 22.38 billion yuan in box office revenue in April, with a significant drop compared to previous periods [30] Investment Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Tencent, NetEase, and Shanghai Film, among others [2] - Investment themes focus on gaming, AI, VR, education, short dramas, and advertising [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current market conditions present a good opportunity for investment, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI and digital transformation [2][36] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the gaming and film sectors as they adapt to changing market dynamics [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the building materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector is expected to enter an excellent recovery window due to a series of real estate stimulus policies, including reduced down payment ratios and lower loan interest rates [4][5] - The report highlights that leading companies in the sector have significantly reduced operational risks and valuations have returned to historical lows, suggesting a potential for substantial gains as policies stimulate demand [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong alpha attributes and low valuations, such as Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, and Jianlang Hardware, as they are likely to benefit first from the easing of real estate policies [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The building materials sector saw a weekly increase of 3.82%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 0.30% [20] - Key stocks that performed well include Sankeshu, Keshun, Jianlang Hardware, Mona Lisa, and Dongfang Yuhong, while China Jushi and others lagged behind [20] Cement - National cement prices increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with notable price rises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Henan, while some areas like Shanghai and Guangdong saw slight declines [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions reached approximately 56%, reflecting a near 2% increase [27] Glass - The float glass market transitioned from a decline to a slight increase, with an average price of 1706.91 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous week [6] - The report notes that the supply-demand structure remains balanced, with northern regions experiencing reduced inventory levels [6] Fiberglass - The report indicates that fiberglass prices have shown resilience, with the average price for non-alkali roving at approximately 3862.75 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.03% increase week-on-week [5] - The report suggests that the industry is at a turning point, with leading companies likely to see improved performance in Q2 [5] Carbon Fiber - The carbon fiber market is experiencing price declines, with the average price around 91.25 yuan/kg, indicating a need for demand recovery [8] - The report highlights that while prices are under pressure, the long-term outlook remains positive due to emerging markets in low-altitude economies [8]