Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the expected 2.6% and down from the previous 2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[2] Market Implications - The unexpected strength in core inflation has raised the probability of a 25bps rate cut in September to 87%, up from 66%[3] - The likelihood of a 50bps cut decreased from 34% to 13%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices were a major drag, with gasoline and fuel prices falling by 0.6% and 1.9% respectively month-on-month[2] - Housing prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing over 80% to the CPI's month-on-month growth[3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have been on a downward trend for five of the last six months, although the rate of decline has slowed[2] - The prices of used cars have seen a narrowing decline, while new car prices remained stable compared to previous values[2] Economic Outlook - The persistence of inflation, particularly in housing and services, suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends[3] - Changes in political support, particularly related to the presidential election, may influence inflation expectations and asset prices[3]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240911 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.8月外贸数据的"热"与"冷"——国内观察：2024年8月进出口数据 ➢ 2.中非光储领域合作推进，8月电车销量表现优异——电池及储能行业周报（20240902- 20240908） ➢ 3.光伏硅料硅片挺价，风电招开标规模持续增加——新能源电力行业周报（20240902- 20240908) 财经要闻 ➢ 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十一次会议在京举行 ➢ 2.外交部表示坚决反对美众议院通过的生物安全法草案 ➢ 3.习近平在全国教育大会上强调：紧紧围绕立德树人根本任务朝着建成教育强国战略目标 扎实迈进 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推 ...

公 司 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 数据日期 收盘价 | 2024/09/11 4.51 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 9,916,108 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 6,712,240/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 93.87% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 0.44 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 5.72 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 5.22/4.21 | [Table_QuotePic] -21% -16% -10% -5% 1% 6% 12% 17% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 23X, 18X, and 15X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the automotive lighting control segment, with a strong position in global platform projects and a clear trend of increasing market share [4] - The company is benefiting from the trend of vehicle EEA (Electrical/Electronic Architecture) upgrades, with successful expansion into new high-value products such as domain controllers and Efuse [4] - The company is entering a global operational phase, with plans to expand production capacity in key markets such as Japan, Europe, and North America [4] Company Overview - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including lighting control systems, motor control systems, energy management systems, and automotive electronics [11] - The company has a strong relationship with Volkswagen and has expanded its customer base to include BMW, Renault-Nissan, Ford, Toyota, and Suzuki [11] - The company is a family-owned business with a concentrated equity structure, with the controlling family holding a significant portion of the shares [13] Market Position and Growth - The company is a global leader in automotive lighting control, with a strong presence in the LED lighting segment and a growing market share in adaptive lighting systems [11] - The company has successfully expanded into new product areas such as domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to drive future growth [4] - The company is focusing on global expansion, with plans to establish production facilities in Japan, Europe, and North America to serve local customers [14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 37% YoY in 2023 and net profit increasing by 35% YoY [16] - The company's energy management system business has seen rapid growth, driven by the successful launch of new products such as chassis controllers and body domain controllers [17] - The company's gross margin has declined slightly due to increased competition in the domestic passenger vehicle market, but the energy management system business has shown improved profitability [18] Industry Trends - The automotive lighting industry is undergoing a transformation, with LED lighting becoming the dominant technology and adaptive lighting systems gaining popularity [22] - The trend towards vehicle EEA upgrades is driving demand for domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to see rapid growth in the coming years [45] - The shift towards centralized and zonal EEA architectures is creating opportunities for new suppliers, particularly in the areas of body domain control and chassis control [53] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in automotive lighting and EEA upgrades, with a strong product portfolio and a growing customer base [4] - The company's focus on global expansion and new product development is expected to drive continued growth in the coming years [14] - The company's financial performance is expected to remain strong, with revenue and net profit projected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and 27% respectively from 2024 to 2026 [5]

Group 1: Export Data - August exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, up from 7.0% in July, marking a new high for the year[11] - The trade surplus expanded to $91.02 billion, compared to the previous value of $84.65 billion[11] - Exports to the EU and Japan saw significant growth, with increases of 5.4 and 6.5 percentage points respectively[12] Group 2: Import Data - August imports amounted to $217.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, down from 7.2% in July[22] - The market had anticipated a 3.6% increase in imports, indicating a significant shortfall[22] - The decline in import growth reflects weak domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI new orders index falling to 48.9[22] Group 3: Market Outlook - Global manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - The potential for a decline in export growth in Q4 is suggested by recent trends in the U.S. manufacturing PMI and employment data[25] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to be strengthened in response to current economic conditions[25] Group 4: Risks - International geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to unexpected disruptions[26] - Domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, potentially weakening market confidence and economic recovery[26]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights that food prices have driven a slight increase in CPI, while raw material prices have negatively impacted PPI, as observed in the inflation data for August 2024. CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while PPI fell by 1.8% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that the increase in CPI is primarily due to food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and pork, which are expected to continue supporting CPI in the fourth quarter. Conversely, PPI is affected by declining prices of upstream raw materials and weak domestic demand [6][9]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Penghui Energy (300438) - Penghui Energy reported a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in Q2 2024, with revenues of 2.176 billion yuan, a 36.3% increase from the previous quarter, although year-on-year net profit decreased by 63.2% to 25 million yuan [9][10]. - The company is focusing on solid-state battery technology, with plans for mass production by 2026. The first generation of solid-state batteries has been released, featuring an energy density of 280 Wh/kg and a production cost only 15% higher than conventional lithium batteries [9][10]. - Penghui Energy's storage battery business is expected to grow rapidly, supported by strong demand from key clients and a comprehensive product matrix. The company ranked among the top 8 in global energy storage market shipments in 2023 [9][10]. Group 3: Economic and Market Insights - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting high-quality development in the low-altitude industry, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and policy improvement [12]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.06% to 2736 points, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.06% [12][13].

总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月10日 资 产 配 置 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 联系人 高旗胜 gqs@longone.com.cn [海外流动性拐点将至，关注国内政策落 Table_NewTitle] 实 ——资产配置与比较月报（2024年9月） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 关注促消费政策效果。8月国内制造业PMI回落至年内低点，5月以来持续位于收缩区 间，虽然新动能表现较好，但制造业整体供需两端均有放缓。受益于暑期消费带动作 用，服务业指数有所回升。7月政治局会议将"以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求"放在了 主要任务中的第一项，促进服务消费高质量发展以及加大耐用消费品以旧换新的支持力 度是政策着力点。若出口增速回落，内需方面地方财政压力对投资仍有约束，关注促 ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月10日 机 械 设 备 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/09/09 | | 收盘价 | 7.89 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 65,909 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 65,663/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 28.51% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 1.42 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 4.06% | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 18.80/7.83 | [Table_QuotePic] -66% -54% -42% -30% -18% -6% 6% 18% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 国茂股份 沪深 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月09日 [食品提振 Table_NewTitle] CPI，原材料拖累PPI ——国内观察：2024年8月通胀数据 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：9月9日，统计局发布2024年8月通胀数据。8月，CPI当月同比0.6%，前值0.5%； 环比0.4%，前值0.5%。PPI当月同比-1.8%，前值-0.8%；环比-0.7%，前值-0.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：CPI小幅上升，主要是受食品价格的推动，其中受高温天气等短期因素影响鲜 菜涨幅较大，猪价年内可能继续对CPI形成支撑。PPI的拖累主要来自于上游原材料价格， 包括原油、有色等价格回落的影响，也有内需偏弱的影响。基数影响褪去后，内需政策落 地效果，以及未来是否有增量政策，决定PPI能否降幅收窄，这一点仍会影响权益的基本 面定价。 ➢ CPI表现继续强于季节性，食品支撑，非食品拖累。从环比来看，8月CPI环比0.4%，高于 近5年同期均值0.28%。食品（环比3.4%，近5年同期均值1.28%）强于季节性，而非食品 （环比-0.3%，近5年同期均值0% ...

行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月09日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn [相关研究 table_product] 1.千味央厨（001215）：大B积极开 拓腰部客户，小B承压期待后续改善 ——公司简评报告 2.新乳业（002946）：低温业务保持 增长，盈利能力加速提升——公司简 评报告 3.中报披露收官，关注旺季量价表现 ——食品饮料行业周报（2024/8/26- 2024/8/30） [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2024/9/2-2024/9/8） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 二级市场表现：上周食品饮料板块下跌3.53%，跑输沪深300指数0.82个百分点，食品饮料 板块在31个申万一级板块中排名第24位。子板块方面，上周均下跌，其中零食 ...