Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company shows strong revenue growth and high confidence in its development, highlighted by an ambitious equity incentive plan [9]. - The antiviral treatment population is expanding, and the core product, Pegbivac, is expected to continue its sales growth [9]. - The innovative pipeline is gradually entering a harvest period, with several products expected to launch soon [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, is a leader in the development of long-acting recombinant protein drugs, focusing on viral hepatitis, malignant tumors, and immunotherapy [16]. - It has launched five products, all included in the national medical insurance, with Pegbivac showing exceptional performance in the clinical cure of hepatitis B [17]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 448 million to 2.1 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.19%, and net profit increased from 16 million to 555 million yuan, with a CAGR of 103.28% [23]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.68%, and a net profit of 304 million yuan, up 50.53% year-on-year [23]. Market Potential - The chronic hepatitis B patient population in China is substantial, with 79.74 million HBV infected individuals, including 20 to 30 million chronic hepatitis B patients [9][39]. - Pegbivac is the only long-acting interferon product on the market in China, with significant potential for sales growth as the treatment population expands [12]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with several products expected to launch soon, including long-acting G-CSF and long-acting growth hormone, which are anticipated to capture significant market share [10][30]. - The company is actively exploring new treatment options for hepatitis B, including collaborations for new drug development [27]. Equity Incentive Plan - In August 2024, the company announced an equity incentive plan with ambitious performance targets for net profit growth over the next three years, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term development [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the machinery equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing growth driven by improved demand in downstream markets, particularly in the tool sector, with companies like Juxing Technology and Jack Co. showing significant revenue increases [6][19]. - The report highlights the importance of companies' internal growth capabilities alongside macroeconomic factors, emphasizing that firms with strong fundamentals can outperform during industry fluctuations [6][19]. - The trend towards digitalization and smart manufacturing in the textile and apparel sector is driving demand for updated machinery and production lines [19][20]. Summary by Sections Juxing Technology - Juxing Technology is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2024, with Q1 and Q2 revenues increasing by 29.4% and 26.2% year-on-year, respectively [12]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 30% in Q3 2024, driven by improved consumer demand in North America [12][15]. - The proportion of self-owned brands has increased from 30.7% in 2020 to 44.1% in H1 2024, contributing to a 15.1% year-on-year growth in self-owned brand revenue [15][16]. Jack Co. - Jack Co. forecasts a net profit growth of 45.5% to 52.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, supported by a recovery in textile machinery demand [19][21]. - The company has successfully implemented a "fast response" strategy, leading to strong sales of key products like the "Quick Response King" sewing machine [19][21]. LiuGong - LiuGong expects a net profit growth of 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from internal reforms and improved operational efficiency [22][23]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas sales, with a reported 18.8% year-on-year growth in foreign revenue for H1 2024 [23]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a shift in the textile and apparel industry towards smaller batch production and rapid response to market changes, necessitating updates in machinery and production processes [19][20]. - The introduction of new technologies, such as the industrial humanoid robot Walker S1, is expected to enhance operational efficiency in manufacturing [25].

Export Data - In September 2024, exports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in the previous month[3] - The trade surplus was $81.711 billion, a narrowing from previous values[3] - Exports to the US, EU, and Japan saw declines of 2.8%, 12.1%, and 7.6% respectively, with Japan's exports turning negative[4] Import Data - Imports in September 2024 amounted to $222 billion, the highest level in a month but only slightly above the average of $214.3 billion for the year[4] - The year-on-year change in imports improved from -7.2% to -6.3%[4] - The domestic manufacturing PMI new orders index rose to 49.9, indicating potential improvement in domestic demand[4] Market Trends - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8, indicating a contraction in external demand[3] - The export volume for ships and steel remained strong, while automotive exports showed a significant decline in growth rate[4] - The overall external demand is weakening, influenced by both base effects and short-term weather factors[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [7][36]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong resilience despite a 7.47% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support in boosting consumer confidence and improving domestic demand [7]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor segment, as well as premium beer brands and resilient companies in the snack and dairy sectors [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47%, with only soft drinks showing a slight increase of 0.17%. The top five gainers included Western Pastoral, Shede Liquor, Dongpeng Beverage, Tianwei Food, and Lianhua Health, with respective increases of 10.28%, 9.42%, 6.83%, 3.36%, and 2.31%. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in *ST Huangtai, Qinghai Spring, Yili, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Xiangpiaopiao, with decreases of 23.02%, 14.47%, 13.88%, 13.75%, and 13.58% [7][12]. 2. Liquor Segment - The report notes that the sales during the dual festivals met expectations, with fluctuations in prices post-festival. The high-end liquor segment continues to face pressure, while the mid-range products (priced between 100-300 yuan) are performing relatively better. The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to focus on brand building, quality improvement, and strategic reforms [7][8]. 3. Beer Segment - The beer sector is expected to see improved sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and lower base effects. The report indicates that raw material costs, particularly for barley, have decreased, enhancing profitability for beer companies. The long-term trend towards premiumization in the beer market remains intact, with a recommendation to focus on key players like Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Snack and Dairy Segments - In the snack sector, some companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the report anticipates sustained growth for leading firms. The dairy segment is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products. Companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are recommended for investment [8][22]. 5. Raw Material Prices - The report provides insights into the prices of key raw materials, noting that milk prices are at 12.16 yuan/liter, with a slight weekly increase, while pork prices are at 29.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.53% [22][23]. 6. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the ongoing promotion of Chinese liquor culture internationally, highlighting the importance of global outreach for the industry [32]. Additionally, it notes a slight increase in the national liquor price index in September, indicating a potential recovery in the market [33].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2024, M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 6.3% in the previous month[2] - M1 decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 7.3%[2] - New RMB loans totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan[2] - New social financing (社融) reached 3.76 trillion yuan, down by 372.2 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, compared to 8.1% previously[2] Group 2: Key Insights and Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly by 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58 trillion yuan, linked to a strong equity market[3] - Corporate deposits rose sharply by 569 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating fiscal efforts are materializing[3] - Corporate bond financing saw a net decrease of 191.1 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing debt resolution efforts[3] - New government bond financing amounted to 1.5353 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 543.3 billion yuan[3] - The M2-M1 gap widened, indicating a need for improved economic vitality[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal industry Core Insights - LME copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $10,000 per ton in 2024, supported by ongoing demand from major consumers like China and potential easing of U.S. monetary policy [3] - Global copper supply is projected to improve in 2024, with increased production from Peru and recovery in Congo and Chile, leading to a preliminary oversupply in the market [3] - The report highlights a significant decline in global copper inventories, which fell by 31.6% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Section Summaries Metal Price Review and Outlook - The report discusses the historical price trends of copper, aluminum, and lead, noting fluctuations due to global events and economic cycles [4][5] - It anticipates a recovery in metal prices post-2024 as global economic activity improves and supply constraints ease [4] Commodity Supply, Demand, and Production - In 2023, China's copper imports decreased by 2% compared to 2022, but a slight recovery is expected in the first half of 2024 [3] - The report indicates that global copper production is expected to exceed consumption for the first time in years, with 2023 production at approximately 27.01 million tons and consumption at about 26.97 million tons [22] Metal Industry Chain - The report outlines the dynamics of the copper supply chain, including mining, refining, and downstream demand, emphasizing the importance of electric equipment and construction sectors in China [92][102] Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests that investors should monitor the recovery of copper production and the potential for price increases as global economic conditions improve [4][3] - It also highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. interest rates and inflation, in influencing metal prices [5][9]

行 业 研 究 电 子 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月14日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 1. 8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新品— —电子行业周报（20240923- 20240929） 2. 半导体高能氢离子注入技术突 破，存储模组价格承压——电子行 业周报（20240916-20240922） 3. 国产DUV光刻机重大突破，消费 电子新品密集发布有望拉动行业景 气度——电子行业周报 （20240909-20240915） 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] AMD推出新一代GPU MI325X，预计第 四季度存储合约价涨幅收敛 ...

Key Recommendations - The report highlights that a turning point has been reached, favoring equities due to a series of policy measures that significantly boost market confidence. The recent announcements from the State Council and the Politburo indicate a strong commitment to counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting sustained policy support in the future [6][7]. - Global liquidity has reached a turning point, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle. This is expected to alleviate exchange rate constraints and support economic recovery [7]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in profit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by improved fiscal policies and a recovery in demand, despite a weak profit growth outlook for the third quarter [7]. Industry Insights Refrigerant Industry - The report notes an upward trend in refrigerant prices, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024. The price of R22 remained stable, while its price has increased by 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [9][10]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, which is expected to maintain upward price momentum in the long term. The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas is likely to drive prices higher [10]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes expected to grow significantly in the last quarter of 2024 [10]. Oil and Gas Industry - The report emphasizes that oil and gas companies' market values are significantly influenced by their resource reserves and production levels. The correlation between oil reserves and market capitalization is highlighted as a critical factor [11][12]. - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity has surged, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a historical high. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 [12][13]. - Short-term oil prices are projected to remain supported at $65 per barrel, with expectations of Brent crude oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $90 per barrel throughout the year [12][13]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [10]. - For the oil and gas sector, it suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises with strong resource reserves and refining capacities, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are positioned competitively on an international scale [13].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles and key players like BYD and Tesla [6]. Core Insights - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.123 million units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 51% and a month-on-month increase of 10%, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [10][23]. - Tesla announced the launch of its autonomous taxi, Cybercab, expected to be mass-produced by 2026, which will significantly reduce operational costs [11][40]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of domestic brands, with retail sales of 1.349 million units for domestic brands in September, up 25% year-on-year [10][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The retail growth of passenger cars turned positive, with September retail sales at 2.109 million units, up 5% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][21]. - NEVs are rapidly penetrating the market, with significant growth in plug-in and extended-range vehicles [10][23]. 2. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a decline of 4.57% in the stock market, with various segments showing mixed performance [12][16]. - Key players like BYD and Geely reported substantial increases in sales, with BYD's wholesale volume reaching 418,000 units, up 46% year-on-year [10][21]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - NEV wholesale sales in September reached 1.231 million units, with significant growth across different power types [23][27]. - The inventory coefficient for automotive dealers was reported at 1.29, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [33]. 4. Company Announcements - BYD announced its entry into the Tajikistan market, aiming to provide advanced products and services [41]. - Other companies like ZEEKR and NETA are expanding into European and Central Asian markets, respectively, indicating a strategic push for international growth [42][43]. 5. Industry Dynamics - New policies in Heilongjiang Province provide subsidies for electric buses and battery replacements, supporting the growth of the NEV sector [40].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The combination of monetary policy from the central bank on September 24 and fiscal policy from the Ministry of Finance on October 12 is expected to enhance the risk resistance capability of large banks and their ability to serve the real economy, significantly alleviating concerns regarding risks in key areas such as local government financing and real estate [6][7]. - The issuance of special government bonds to supplement the core capital of large state-owned banks is anticipated to improve their risk absorption capacity and sustainability of credit supply. This could potentially increase the core Tier 1 capital of large banks by 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan, supporting an asset increment of 8 to 16 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 4% to 8% [6]. - The increase in debt limits to support local government debt restructuring is expected to alleviate concerns regarding risks in small and medium-sized banks, particularly in regions with high levels of implicit local government debt [6]. - The policies are also aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which will help mitigate risks associated with personal housing loans and operational loans. The measures taken are expected to reduce the non-performing loan ratio in the corporate real estate sector in the first half of 2024 [7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on large state-owned banks and small to medium-sized banks, particularly those in the Midwest regions where implicit local government debt is a significant concern. Specific banks to watch include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and several regional banks [7]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality Concerns - Asset quality concerns are further alleviated due to the recent fiscal and monetary policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of banks and supporting the real economy [6]. Interest Margin Support - The gradual emergence of deposit rate cuts is providing support for interest margins, which is crucial in the current economic environment [5]. Credit Dynamics - The shift from old to new credit dynamics is showing signs of easing pressure on interest margins, indicating a potential stabilization in the banking sector [5].