Economic Data Summary - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.4%[1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 5.4% year-on-year, a slight increase from 5.3% in October[1] Key Economic Insights - Major economic indicators, except for industrial production, showed a decline in November, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand[1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing prices, which will influence the nominal GDP growth rate[1] - The monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately loose," while fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive[1] Sector Performance - Retail sales growth was weaker than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.16%, compared to a five-year average of 0.54%[1] - The catering sector performed better than retail goods, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% compared to 2.8% for retail goods[1] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with the sales area of commercial housing turning positive for the first time since April 2023, although the cumulative decline narrowed to -14.3%[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment growth slightly declined to 9.3%, while infrastructure investment also saw a minor drop to 9.8%[1] - Equipment updates continue to support manufacturing investment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.8% in equipment purchases over the first 11 months[1] - Broad infrastructure investment growth remained stable, with narrow infrastructure investment slightly decreasing to 3.35%[1] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include the possibility of policy implementation falling short of expectations and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market[4] - The U.S. economic recession poses additional risks to the domestic economy[4]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月16日 行 业 周 报 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn 联系人 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 26% 37% 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.CPIA大会召开，行业自律有望推动 行业底部企稳——光伏行业简评 2.聚和材料（688503）：铜浆产业化 加速，公司技术优势凸显 ——公司 简评报告 3.以旧换新政策持续发力，储能市场 增速较高——电池及储能行业周报 （2024/11/25-2024/12/01） 目完成招标 [table_i ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the battery and energy storage sectors [3]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing significant growth, with November 2024 production and sales reaching 1.566 million and 1.512 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 45.8% and 47.4% [4][27]. - The energy storage market is also showing high growth, with cumulative installations reaching 23.42 GW/58.86 GWh by October 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 118% [6][31]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - **Market Performance**: The battery sector saw a decline of 1.72% in the week of December 9-15, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.72 percentage points [36]. - **Production and Sales Growth**: The domestic EV market is expected to reach 12.5 million units in total sales for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% [4][27]. - **Supply Chain Adjustments**: The supply side is adjusting with stable prices for lithium salts and other materials, although some materials are still experiencing price fluctuations [28][29]. Energy Storage Sector - **Tender Projects**: In the week ending December 13, 2024, there were 11 new tender projects and 15 awarded projects in the energy storage market, with a total scale of 3.21 GW/22.52 GWh [30][56]. - **Market Growth**: The energy storage market is maintaining a high growth rate, with new installations in October 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 236% [31]. - **Market Dynamics**: The commercial energy storage market is lagging behind expectations, with new installations showing a decline due to tightening policy environments [31][32]. Recommended Companies - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)**: Expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024 with an estimated profit of approximately 50.5 billion yuan [5][29]. - **Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd.**: The company has achieved a full industry chain layout in energy storage and is leading in inverter shipments [34].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, device materials, and consumer electronics cycle [4][6]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery in demand, with significant advancements in technology and a strong focus on AI applications, particularly with the launch of OpenAI's Sora Turbo and Google's Android XR [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of the AI video generation technology introduced by OpenAI, which is expected to transform content creation processes across various industries [5][20]. - The semiconductor industry is showing resilience, with China's integrated circuit exports surpassing 1 trillion yuan, reflecting its growing international competitiveness [22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry News - OpenAI launched the Sora AI application, enabling users to generate realistic videos from text prompts, marking a significant advancement in AI applications [20]. - Shanghai's government introduced a plan to support mergers and acquisitions in the integrated circuit sector, aiming for a transaction scale of 300 billion yuan by 2027 [20]. - The third Electronic Information Industry Green Development Conference emphasized the importance of green practices in the electronic sector [21]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronic sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenyin Wanguo Electronic Index rising by 0.22% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.01% [6][40]. - As of December 13, 2024, various sub-sectors within electronics showed mixed performance, with optical and consumer electronics segments gaining [40][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for investment: 1. AIOT sector, with specific companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [6]. 2. AI-driven innovations, particularly in computing chips and optical devices [6]. 3. Domestic supply chain replacements in semiconductor equipment and materials [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [92]. Core Insights - The cost side shows a gradual decline in raw material prices and stable shipping costs, which is expected to support the industry's profitability [38][87]. - Production of semi-steel tires remains stable, while full-steel tire production shows signs of recovery, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing capacity [23][28]. - Domestic demand is stable, but overseas demand is slowing down, suggesting a mixed outlook for market growth [41][72]. Cost Side Summary - Raw material prices have decreased, with November 2024 average prices for key materials as follows: - Butadiene: 9978.57 CNY/ton, down 21.00% month-on-month, up 8.79% year-on-year - Natural rubber: 2005.48 USD/ton, down 2.42% month-on-month, up 35.30% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber: 15135.71 CNY/ton, down 8.40% month-on-month, up 26.85% year-on-year - Carbon black: 7683.33 CNY/ton, down 2.84% month-on-month, down 14.94% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric: 21562.50 CNY/ton, down 0.86% month-on-month, down 1.99% year-on-year [5][6]. Production Side Summary - In October 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 94.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.37%, with semi-steel tire production at 56.74 million units, up 3.22% year-on-year [26]. - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires in November 2024 was 79.17%, up 2.70% month-on-month, while full-steel tires had an operating rate of 60.51%, up 6.66% month-on-month [28]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic market demand remains stable, with a focus on replenishing inventory, while overseas demand is affected by tariff policies and a cautious outlook from downstream customers [41][86]. - In October 2024, China's exports of new inflatable rubber tires reached 56.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.47% [34]. Industry News Summary - Key developments include Goodyear's major transformation plan, Sumitomo Rubber's closure of its only U.S. factory, and Zhongce Rubber's production of its first truck tire in Indonesia [76][79]. - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of production capacity by companies like Cheng Shin Rubber in India and Guizhou Tire's new smart manufacturing project [82][81].

Group 1 - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand in the face of external uncertainties, with a GDP growth target set around 5% [12][13][25] - Monetary policy is expected to be "appropriately loose," with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative stance [14][15] - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with an anticipated increase in the deficit ratio to around 4% and the issuance of special bonds expected to rise to approximately 4.7 trillion yuan [15][16] Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is projected to experience significant changes driven by regulatory reforms and a focus on high-quality development, with the securities index rising by 35% and the insurance index by 36% as of November [21][22] - Key trends in the securities sector include deepening investment reforms, cautious equity financing, and accelerated mergers and acquisitions, while the insurance sector is expected to benefit from lower liability costs and a robust growth in new business value [22] - The report highlights the importance of addressing risks in the real estate sector, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting sales through measures such as inventory reduction and easing purchase restrictions [17][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the consumer goods replacement policy has driven sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors [32] - Financial data for November shows a year-on-year decrease in M2 growth to 7.1% and a narrowing decline in M1 to -3.7%, indicating a mixed outlook for liquidity and credit conditions [33] - The A-share market has shown volatility, with major indices experiencing declines, highlighting the need for cautious investment strategies amid fluctuating market conditions [36][38]

Economic Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand due to uncertainties in external demand[1] - The GDP growth target for next year is expected to be around 5%[23] - The focus on residents' income growth and reasonable price increases has been heightened, indicating a shift towards stabilizing growth and employment[21] Monetary Policy - The conference directly mentioned the possibility of timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[25] - This year, the 7-day OMO rate has been cut by 30 basis points, and the RRR has been reduced by 100 basis points, with an additional 25-50 basis points of room for further cuts expected[25] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase to around 4% next year, with the issuance of special long-term bonds expected to rise to approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[27] - Local government special bonds are anticipated to increase to around 4.5 trillion yuan, supporting infrastructure and investment projects[27] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a primary task, with initiatives to boost consumption and investment efficiency[28] - Policies aimed at increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups are expected to enhance consumer capacity and willingness[30] Risk Management - Real estate remains a key focus for risk prevention, with measures to stabilize the market and manage local government debt risks[32] - The conference highlighted the need to address risks in key areas, including real estate and local financial institutions, to prevent systemic risks[32] Technological Innovation - The conference emphasizes the role of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and the need to regulate "involution" competition[31] - Initiatives such as "Artificial Intelligence+" are expected to be prioritized, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like AI and semiconductors[31]

Key Recommendations - The report highlights the restructuring and transformation of the non-bank financial industry under policy guidance, emphasizing the need for adaptation to new regulations and market conditions [7] - It notes that the securities index rose by 35% and the insurance index by 36% as of the end of November 2024, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by over 20 percentage points [7] - The report suggests three major trends in the securities sector: deepening investment reforms, cautious equity financing with opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, and accelerated consolidation in the brokerage industry [8] Export and Domestic Demand Analysis - The report indicates that while export growth has slowed, it remains resilient, with November exports valued at $312.3 billion, the highest since September 2022 [10] - It mentions that the trade surplus expanded to $97.443 billion in November, despite a decline in imports by 3.9% year-on-year [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for policy support to boost domestic demand, as current domestic demand remains weak, with November imports at $214.87 billion [13] Economic Policy Updates - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of maintaining stable economic growth, promoting domestic demand, and implementing proactive fiscal policies [15] - The report discusses the implementation of a personal pension system starting December 15, 2024, aimed at expanding tax incentives and optimizing product offerings [17] - It also notes the European Central Bank's decision to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fourth rate cut of the year [18] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3461 points, up 0.85%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1% [19] - The report highlights that 90% of sectors closed in the green, with significant inflows into consumer sectors such as retail and food processing [20] - It notes that the banking sector also performed well, with a 1.26% increase, supported by a favorable technical outlook [22]

Key Recommendations - Strong downstream demand has led to further price increases in refrigerants, with prices for R32, R125, and R134a rising by 2.56%, 7.04%, and 11.43% respectively as of November 29, 2024 [8][9] - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, suggesting that refrigerant prices will continue to rise in the long term [9] - December saw a continuous increase in household appliance sales and production, supporting strong refrigerant demand, with air conditioning production expected to remain high [10] Asset Allocation Outlook - Domestic asset performance in 2024 has shown equities outperforming commodities, bonds, and other asset classes [11] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a stable RMB exchange rate with limited fluctuations, while the bond market is expected to remain strong [12][13] - The commodity market is anticipated to show resilience, with oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel next year [13] Industry Insights - The chemical industry is at a cyclical low, with cash flow improvements expected to balance capital expenditures and dividends [16] - The high-end manufacturing sector is seeing increased domestic market share due to the gradual realization of domestic substitutes for key components [16] - The financial sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, with a focus on strengthening leading securities firms through mergers and acquisitions [16] Economic and Policy Outlook - The report highlights the Chinese government's strong commitment to economic growth, with expectations for a stable recovery supported by various monetary and fiscal policies [19][20] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with increased corporate profitability likely to enhance the value of listed companies [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of cooperation in building an open global economy, with a focus on innovation and technology as key growth drivers [28]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the non-banking financial industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the restructuring and transformation of the non-banking financial industry under the guidance of policies aimed at strong regulation, risk prevention, and promoting high-quality development [1]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Market and Performance Recap - As of the end of November, the securities sector saw a return of +35% and the insurance sector +36%, with excess returns exceeding 20 percentage points [3]. - Overall performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed a revenue decline of 3% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 6%, with significant pressure on brokerage and investment banking businesses [5][6]. 2. Policy Mainline: Strong Regulation, Risk Prevention, and Promotion of High-Quality Development - The new "National Nine Articles" for capital markets aims to establish a framework for development over the next five years, focusing on direct financing and enhancing market functions [20][21]. - The insurance sector's new "National Ten Articles" expands regulatory focus from scale to quality, emphasizing market access, ongoing supervision, and risk prevention [25]. 3. Trends in the Securities Sector - **Trend 1**: Deepening investment-side reforms, with expectations for increased long-term capital inflows. The number of new A-share accounts opened in October 2024 reached 6.85 million, indicating heightened market activity [32]. - **Trend 2**: Cautious equity financing, with IPO and refinancing volumes down 83.7% and 71.9% respectively, while the M&A market is heating up due to regulatory support [47]. 4. Trends in the Insurance Sector - **Trend 1**: Expansion of new business value (NBV) growth, driven by a surge in new policy sales following interest rate adjustments [10]. - **Trend 2**: Significant improvement in total investment returns, with major insurance companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong regulatory support and potential for high-quality growth, particularly in the context of ongoing reforms and market restructuring [31].