Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [1][16]. Core Insights - The domestic satellite internet industry is entering an industrialization phase, with satellite internet expected to be the most promising growth segment in the communication sector over the next five years [2]. - Key components of low Earth orbit satellite communication include onboard base stations, phased array antenna systems, onboard core networks, and laser inter-satellite links [2]. - The report highlights significant weekly performance, with the communication index rising by 5.20% during the week of October 14-18, 2024, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 45,780.91 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 16,311.98 billion yuan [2]. - The average industry price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is reported at 22.43 [2]. Key Stocks Performance - Notable stock performances during the week include: - Inspur Information: +9.87% - Zhongtian Technology: +2.38% - Guangxun Technology: +14.71% - Huagong Technology: +3.76% - Xinke Mobile: +6.97% - Fenghuo Communication: +4.23% - Zhenyou Technology: +12.65% - Gongjin Co., Ltd.: +8.82% [8][10]. Industry News - The successful launch of the Qianfan Jiguo 02 satellite group marks a significant milestone in China's large-scale satellite internet construction, indicating a shift towards normalization and mass production in the sector [10]. - Longyintong and Changfei Optical Fiber have terminated their framework cooperation agreement, with Longyintong agreeing to a compensation of 15 million yuan due to the high costs associated with purchasing from Changfei [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [1]. Core Insights - New and second-hand housing sales are showing signs of recovery, with second-hand housing sales growth outpacing new housing sales [2]. - Recent policy adjustments across various cities aim to eliminate restrictive measures on housing, signaling a shift towards stabilizing the real estate market [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the week of October 14-20, new housing sales in 23 cities reached 3.586 million square meters, up from 2.487 million square meters the previous week. Year-to-date sales show a decline of 18.41% compared to the previous year, but the monthly growth for October is at 2.19% [2]. - Second-hand housing sales in 10 cities for the same week totaled 1.395 million square meters, an increase from 1.172 million square meters the prior week. Year-to-date, second-hand sales have grown by 4.54% [2]. - The combined sales of new and second-hand homes in 10 cities for the week were 2.498 million square meters, up from 2.173 million square meters the previous week, with a year-to-date decline of 12.14% [2]. Policy Developments - Shanghai has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, reducing the minimum down payment for second homes to 25% and to 20% in specific districts [3]. - Tianjin has removed various housing restrictions, including purchase limits and price caps, standardizing the minimum down payment for first and second homes to 15% [3]. - Chengdu has introduced policies such as "buying a house equals settling down" and increased the maximum loan amount for provident fund loans to 1.2 million yuan [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus is shifting from maintaining stability to promoting recovery in the real estate market, indicating a more proactive approach in future policies [3]. - Continuous attention to investment opportunities within the real estate sector is recommended, as both supply and demand sides are expected to benefit from supportive policies [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [8] Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - Consumer demand is gradually rebounding, indicating resilience in the economy, with significant recovery potential in the future [3][4] - Essential consumption continues to show steady growth, while optional consumption exhibits varied performance [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods from January to September 2024 totaled 353,564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [3] - The online retail sales of physical goods reached 90,721 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales [4] Consumption Trends - Essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 4.5%, and 2.2% respectively in the first half of 2024 [3] - Optional consumption categories like sports and entertainment goods and communication equipment showed strong growth rates of 9.7% and 10% respectively, while categories like automobiles and cosmetics experienced negative growth [3][4] Retail Formats - Online consumption growth outpaced offline, with convenience stores, specialty stores, and supermarkets showing year-on-year increases of 4.7%, 4.0%, and 2.4% respectively [4] - The performance of department stores and brand specialty stores declined by 3.3% and 1.7% respectively, indicating a shift towards high-cost performance consumption [4] Investment Strategy - In the context of overall weak consumer demand, focus on high-prosperity segments and companies with alpha performance within those segments [4] - The structural adjustment trend in the consumer market continues, with consumers becoming more rational in their spending behavior [4]

行 业 研 究 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银行金融行业：互换便利和回购 增持再贷款顺利落地，资本市场再 迎增量资金 事件：10 月 18 日，证监会公告称，央行已创设证券、基金、保险公司互换便 利（SFISF），第一批获批参与的机构包括中信证券等 17 家证券公司和华夏基 金等 3 家基金公司。同日，央行联合国家金融监管总局、证监会发布《关于设 立股票回购增持再贷款有关事宜的通知》，设立股票回购增持再贷款，激励引 导金融机构向符合条件的上市公司和主要股东提供贷款，支持其回购和增持上 市公司股票。 点评： 两大创新货币政策工具是监管层支持股票市场稳定发展，贡献增量资金改善市 场流动性，提振投资者信心的重要举措。其中，创设证券、基金、保险公司互 换便利，支持符合条件的证券、基金、保险公司通过资产质押，从中央银行获 取流动性，这项政策将大幅提升机构的资金获取能力和股票增持能力。而通过 委托中债信用增进公司这一公开市场业务一级交易商进行盯市管理，有利于该 创新工具被相关投资主体安全使用。同时，互换费率由参与机构招投标确定， 确保业务成本的市场化定价，保障了相关参与主体的权益。此 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2024 年 10 月 18 日星期五 A 股港股市场 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------|-----------|--------| | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | | 上证指数 | 3,261.56 | 2.91 | | | 深证成指 | 10,357.68 | 4.71 | | | 创业板 | 2,195.1 | 7.95 | | | 中小板 | 6,377.61 | 3.93 | | | 沪深 300 | 3,925.23 | 3.62 | | | 香港恒生 | 20,804.11 | 3.61 | | | 国企指数 | 7,471.95 | 4.07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|--------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | A | | 股新股日历（本周网上发行新股） | | | 名称 | 价格 | 行业 | 发行日 | | 强达电路 | 28. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Insights - In September, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 41.45 CNY/kg, 19.70 CNY/kg, and 31.42 CNY/kg respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 31.99%, 17.49%, and 16.90% [2][9] - The supply side saw an increase in slaughtering willingness due to previous price declines, leading to a rise in average slaughter weight [2][11] - The report predicts a stable price environment in the fourth quarter, supported by low production capacity and potential profitability for breeding enterprises [2][14] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - September saw a continuous decline in pig prices, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.37% for piglets and 3.18% for live pigs [2][9] - The slaughtering rate increased by 3.60 percentage points to 27.46% in September, indicating a slight recovery in terminal consumption [11] Sales Data - The average sales price for major breeding companies decreased in September, with prices for Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope at 18.65 CNY/kg, 19.05 CNY/kg, and 18.81 CNY/kg, reflecting declines of 5.38%, 6.85%, and 5.58% respectively [18][20] - Total slaughter volume for 17 listed pig companies in September was 12.35 million heads, a decrease of 3.79% month-on-month [20][23] Performance Forecast - Companies are expected to report significant year-on-year improvements in profitability due to cost reductions and price increases, with Muyuan projected to achieve a net profit of 10-11 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 642.79% to 697.07% [27][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the decline in new home sales slightly narrowed, while the decline in funds available to real estate companies expanded [1][4] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to September decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount decreased by 22.7% year-on-year [2] - The cumulative new construction area from January to September decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative investment in development decreased by 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The funds available to real estate developers decreased by 20.0% year-on-year from January to September, with a significant drop in various funding sources in September [4] Summary by Sections Sales - In September, the year-on-year decline in new home sales area was -11.0%, and the sales amount decreased by -16.3% [2] - The average sales price in September saw a year-on-year decline of -5.9% [2] Development Investment - The new construction area in September saw a year-on-year decline of -19.9%, while the completion area decreased by -31.4% [3] - The cumulative development investment from January to September decreased by -10.1% year-on-year [3] Funds Available - The cumulative funds available to real estate developers decreased by -20.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans [4] - In September, the year-on-year decline in domestic loans was -14.4%, and personal mortgage loans decreased by -26.0% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy goals for the real estate market are shifting from stabilization to promotion of stability, which will positively impact core city markets [4] - Quality real estate companies in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, are expected to benefit from this shift [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautiously Optimistic" based on the current market conditions and expected policy support [4][26]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, residential prices in 70 major cities continued to decline month-on-month, with the largest drop observed in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities. The new housing price index for September showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.7% [1][2]. - The year-on-year decline in new housing prices for September was -6.1%, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year decrease of -4.7% [2][3]. - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus is shifting from stabilizing to promoting stability in the real estate market, which is expected to provide ongoing support for core city markets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In September, the new housing price index for 70 major cities decreased by -0.7% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month [1]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of -0.5%, with specific cities like Beijing and Shenzhen showing declines of -0.7% and -1.0% respectively [1][2]. - The second-hand housing price index for first-tier cities dropped by -1.2% month-on-month, with notable declines in cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou [1][2]. Year-on-Year Changes - The year-on-year new housing price index for 70 major cities fell by -6.1%, with first-tier cities at -4.7% [2]. - The second-hand housing price index year-on-year decline was -9.0%, with first-tier cities experiencing a drop of -10.7% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, which are expected to benefit from increased policy support [2][4]. - The report highlights that companies with market-oriented operational capabilities, like Longfor Group, are likely to receive good credit support due to the increased "white list" efforts [2][4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The fiscal policy is expected to continue to strengthen, focusing on reducing systemic risks in the real economy and financial system through increased debt issuance and special government bonds [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance aims to support local governments in addressing hidden debt risks and stabilize the real estate market, with an estimated 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the last three months of the year [1][2] - The overall economic environment remains resilient, with expectations for GDP growth to rebound in the fourth quarter due to the implementation of these fiscal measures [1][2] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, indicating weak demand for loans [3][4] - The government bond issuance accelerated, contributing significantly to the new social financing, while loan demand from both households and enterprises remained weak [3][4] - The banking sector is expected to stabilize credit growth as new policies are implemented, with a focus on improving asset quality and addressing local debt risks [5] Group 3: Copper Consumption Outlook - Global copper consumption is projected to enter a strong growth phase, with an expected increase of 11.3% from 2024 to 2027, driven by green energy infrastructure and production capacity adjustments [9][10] - China's copper consumption is forecasted to grow significantly, particularly in the appliance, transportation, construction, and power sectors, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% anticipated for major copper-consuming industries [10][11] - The copper market is expected to remain in a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and strong demand dynamics supporting price resilience [11] Group 4: Electric Two-Wheeler Industry - The electric two-wheeler industry is experiencing a second wave of growth driven by regulatory changes, with the new national standards expected to boost replacement demand [12][13] - The domestic market still has growth potential, and Southeast Asia presents significant opportunities for expansion, with manufacturers like Yadea already establishing a foothold [12][13] - The industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies gaining market share and improving profitability due to regulatory pressures that favor compliant manufacturers [13] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - Tesla is leading in the smart driving sector, with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology showing significant progress, including over 1.6 billion miles driven under FSD [16][17] - The latest FSD version has been released, and Tesla plans to expand its availability to China and Europe by 2025, pending regulatory approval [16][17] - The evolution of smart driving capabilities is expected to influence market competitiveness, with domestic companies also making strides in this area [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market through a series of policy measures, including the cancellation of various restrictions and the reduction of costs associated with home purchases [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of lowering interest rates, down payment ratios, and tax burdens to alleviate the financial pressure on homebuyers and support housing demand [2] - The introduction of 1 million new housing units through monetary compensation for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations is expected to enhance housing supply and meet potential demand [2] - Increasing the loan allocation for "white list" projects is seen as a way to improve cash flow for real estate companies and optimize their asset structures [2] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - Four cancellations: purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price limits, and classifications of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties [1] - Four reductions: housing provident fund loan interest rates, down payment ratios for housing loans, interest rates on existing loans, and tax burdens for "selling old to buy new" transactions [2] - Two increases: implementation of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations and an increase in the credit scale for "white list" projects from 2.23 trillion to 4 trillion [1][2] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the central government's policy goals are shifting from stabilization to promotion, indicating a more proactive approach to support the real estate market [2] - It is anticipated that the demand-side policies will provide solid support for core city markets, benefiting quality real estate companies such as China Resources Land, Greentown China, and China Merchants Shekou [2]