行 业 研 究 银行行业：净息差持续收窄，资产 2024年6月4日 看好/维持 质量指标平稳 东 银行 行业报告 兴 ——1Q24 行业主要监管数据点评 证 券 事件：5月31日，国家金融监管总局发布2024年一季度商业银行主要监管指 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 标。商业银行1Q24实现净利润6723亿，同比增长0.7%，平均ROE为9.57%， 6月10-15日：5月社融金融数据 份 平均ROA为0.74%，不良贷款率1.59%。 有 资料来源：央行、东兴证券研究所 限  盈利表现：1Q24净利润增速较23Y下降，非息收入贡献提升。 公 一季度商业银行净利润实现同比正增，增速较23Y下降。1Q24商业银行实现 行业基本资料 占比% 司 净利润6723亿元，同比增长0.7%，增速较2023年全年下降2.6pct。（1）量 股票家数 50 1.09% 证 增难抵价降，净利息收入增长承压。一季度商业银行扩表速度有所放缓，季末 行业市值(亿元) 114131.37 13.43% 券 总资产367.9万亿，同比增长9.14%，较23Y放缓1.81pct；一季度净息差较 研 23Y收窄15BP至1.54%。（2）债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The sales decline of the top 100 real estate companies has slightly narrowed, with the top 10 companies experiencing the smallest overall decline [1][3]. - In the first five months of 2023, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 15,414.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 46.0%, which is an improvement from a 48.5% decline in the first four months [2][4]. - The median year-on-year sales growth rate for 36 tracked key real estate companies was -51.2%, with state-owned enterprises performing better than mixed ownership and private enterprises [2][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 10 companies was 7,519.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 39.9% [3][4]. - The sales performance of other groups is as follows: - Top 11-20: 2,588.6 billion yuan, -50.7% - Top 21-30: 1,330.8 billion yuan, -55.8% - Top 31-50: 1,722.2 billion yuan, -51.8% - Top 51-100: 2,253.5 billion yuan, -46.5% [3][4]. Sales Growth Rates - The year-on-year sales growth rates for the first five months of 2024 are as follows: - Top 10: -39.9% - Top 11-20: -50.7% - Top 21-30: -55.8% - Top 31-50: -51.8% - Top 51-100: -46.5% - Overall top 100: -46.0% [4][9]. Key Company Insights - Among the 36 key companies tracked, state-owned enterprises showed a median sales growth rate of -40.3%, while mixed ownership and private enterprises had a median of -55.1% [10][12]. - The report suggests that easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios in core first and second-tier cities may boost demand, leading to a narrowing of sales declines in June [1][3].

市场行情：本周 A 股地产板块表现弱于大盘、H 股地产板块表现弱于大盘。 本周（5.27-5.31）A 股房地产指数（801180.SL）涨幅-4.72%（上周-5.26%）， A 股中证 A 股指数（930903.CSI）涨幅-0.32%（上周-2.77%）；H 股（5.27-5.31） 恒生地产及物业管理指数（HSPDM.HK）涨幅-6.68%（上周-6.87%），H 股恒 生指数（HSI.HK）涨幅-2.84%（上周-4.83%）。 投资建议： A 股新股日历（日内上市新股） 名称 价格 行业 上市日 *价格单位为元/股 后续，消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施将会形成组合拳，持续改善 市场供需结构，对需求形成托底。需求的提升将利好重点布局一二线城市的 优质房企和中介机构，华润置地、招商蛇口、贝壳等有望受益。 生猪养殖行业月度跟踪（20240603） 4 月上市企业销售数据： 东兴晨报 P3 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，上市企业出栏量扩张不及预期，疫情风险， 企业成本控制不及预期等。 东兴晨报 P9 对应费用率 13%，同比提升 1 个百分点；一般行政费用 140.19 亿元，对应费用率 6%，同比持 ...

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：周期拐点已现，企 2024年6月3日 看好/维持 业盈利将持续兑现 东 农林牧渔 行业报告 兴 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 证 券 行业供需表现：4 月猪价环比上行，周期拐点已现。2024 年 4 月仔猪、活猪 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 和猪肉均价分别为36.73元/公斤、15.35元/公斤和25.18元/公斤，同比变化 无 份 分别为-0.43%、4.65%和1.46%，环比变化分别为14.38%、2.66%和0.93%。 有 4月生猪及猪肉价格冲高后小幅调整，均价环比上行，养殖端出栏节奏正常， 限 资料来源：同花顺、东兴证券研究所 清明五一节日提振有限。前期猪价上涨提振下，仔猪补栏积极性提升。5月以 公 行业基本资料 占比% 来，月初猪价整体保持震荡行情，中旬二育入场积极性提高，乐观预期持续推 司 股票家数 100 2.18% 动猪价上涨。 证 行业市值(亿元) 13213.41 1.55% 券 产能变化趋势：能繁母猪去化确认，周期拐点已现。国家统计局数据显示，4 流通市值(亿元) 9792.49 1.43% 研 月全国能繁母猪存栏3986万头，已连续10个月回调，能繁母猪 ...

行 业 研 究 房地产周报 20240603：核心城市降 2024年6月3日 看好/维持 首付、降利率，推动市场需求企稳 东 房地产 行业报告 兴 证 券 市场行情：本周A股地产板块表现弱于大盘、H股地产板块表现弱于大盘。本 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 周（5.27-5.31）A股房地产指数（801180.SL）涨幅-4.72%（上周-5.26%）， 2024年6月中旬，统计局公布5月房地产数 份 A股中证A股指数（930903.CSI）涨幅-0.32%（上周-2.77%）；H股（5.27-5.31） 据。 有 恒生地产及物业管理指数（HSPDM.HK）涨幅-6.68%（上周-6.87%），H股恒 资料来源：国家统计局、东兴证券研究所 限 行业基本资料 占比% 生指数（HSI.HK）涨幅-2.84%（上周-4.83%）。 公 股票家数 118 2.57% 司 行业销售：新房销售维持弱势。从数据来看，23 城商品房年内累计销售面积 证 （1.1~5.31）同比增速为-32.20%，对应前值（1.1~5.24）为-32.52%。其中一 行业市值(亿元) 12183.97 1.43% 券 线城市(4 城) 年内累 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Insights - Kuaishou achieved a revenue of 29.408 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6%, with a net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 0.876 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company's online marketing services revenue reached 16.650 billion yuan, up 27.4% year-on-year, driven by enhanced smart marketing solutions and increased customer engagement [1] - E-commerce revenue surged by 47.6% year-on-year to 4.183 billion yuan, attributed to refined operational strategies and an increase in active paying users and merchants [1] - The average daily active users reached a record high of 394 million, with a daily usage time of 129.5 minutes, indicating strong user engagement [1] - The e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 28.2% year-on-year to 288.1 billion yuan, supported by improved consumer experience and an increase in active merchants [1] Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, Kuaishou's total sales cost was 13.288 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 54.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 3.994 billion yuan, with domestic operations contributing 3.991 billion yuan in profit, a significant increase from 0.963 billion yuan in Q1 2023 [1] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 15.179 billion yuan, 19.952 billion yuan, and 25.576 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba's domestic e-commerce GMV achieved double-digit growth, reflecting a focus on strategic priority businesses [20][46][99] - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 reached 211.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7% [5][43][99] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 24.418 billion yuan, a decline of 11% year-on-year, primarily due to losses from equity investments [4][47][43] Revenue Breakdown - The Chinese commercial segment generated revenue of 93.216 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with customer management revenue at 63.574 billion yuan, increasing by 5% [20][43][99] - The international commercial segment saw revenue of 27.448 billion yuan, a significant increase of 45%, driven by strong performance in cross-border businesses [28][44] - The cloud business reported revenue of 25.595 billion yuan, growing by 3%, focusing on high-quality core public cloud products and AI-related services [29][45] Cost and Profitability - The company's operating cost for Q1 2024 was 148.098 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of 33% [4][47] - Sales and marketing expenses increased to 28.826 billion yuan, with a corresponding expense ratio of 13%, up by 1 percentage point year-on-year [4][47] - The report indicates that the company is actively adjusting and reshaping its competitiveness in e-commerce and cloud computing sectors [11][70] Strategic Focus - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to enhancing user experience in e-commerce, which has led to a significant increase in online GMV and order volume [24][34] - The focus on core products and advanced technology has resulted in accelerated growth in AI-related cloud computing revenue [10][46] - The strategic prioritization of businesses is expected to continue driving growth and improving market competitiveness in the e-commerce and cloud sectors [46][70]

首席周观点：2024 年第 22 周2024 年 5 月 30 日 首席观点 周度观点 海外：美国下半年为传统消费旺季，衰退概率不大。高收入增速显著下降，低收入增速高位 稳定，为典型的后周期特征。实际人均可支配收入同比已低于 CPI，预计消费动能略有减弱。 银行信贷有所放宽，利于投资反弹，企业利息支出占 GDI 处于历史低位。4 月非农不及预期， 主要来自地方政府就业新增下降，而周期性行业就业已持续 4 个月处于低位。一季度新订单 增多，客户库存下降，部分商品补库存逻辑顺畅。根据历史经验，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 低于 45 即为经济危机，目前暂无忧虑。但商品消费有所回落，补库存带来的边际改善可持续性并 不明朗。我们仍认为衰退是推迟而不是没有。最早降息节点可参考核心 CPI 环比跌落 0.4%这 一平台，如连续一个季度稳定在 0.2%~0.3%。欧洲降息先于美国降息几成定局。 国内：去年年底预期的出口回暖带动制造业投资回升的观点正在兑现。但海外数据尚不支持 首席周观点：2024年第22周 P2 DONGXING SECURITIES 宏观：经济微暖，风险偏好回升 配置方面，建议适度增配 2 年期以内的利率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW, indicating an expected performance that is significantly better than the market benchmark index by over 15% [20][30]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 211.9 billion yuan for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 7%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 11% to 24.418 billion yuan [1][21]. - The focus on strategic priority businesses has led to a double-digit growth in domestic e-commerce GMV, driven by improvements in user shopping experience and product efficiency [5][18]. - The international business segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 45%, with international retail business growing by 56% [18]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: - Chinese commercial segment revenue was 93.216 billion yuan, up 4% year-over-year [18]. - International commercial segment revenue reached 27.448 billion yuan, up 45% [18]. - Local life services revenue increased by 19% to 14.628 billion yuan [18]. - Cainiao revenue grew by 30% to 24.557 billion yuan [18]. - Cloud business revenue was 25.595 billion yuan, a 3% increase [18]. - The entertainment segment revenue slightly declined by 1% to 4.945 billion yuan [18]. - The report forecasts net profits for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 140.5 billion yuan, 151.5 billion yuan, and 164.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10X, 9.3X, and 8.6X [22].

经济要闻 1. 国务院：从严控制铜、氧化铝等冶炼新增产能 合理布局硅、锂、镁等 行业新增产能。国务院印发《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》，方 案要求，优化有色金属产能布局。严格落实电解铝产能置换，从严控制 铜、氧化铝等冶炼新增产能，合理布局硅、锂、镁等行业新增产能。大 力发展再生金属产业。到 2025 年底，再生金属供应占比达到 24%以上， 铝水直接合金化比例提高到 90%以上。新建和改扩建电解铝项目须达到 能效标杆水平和环保绩效 A 级水平，新建和改扩建氧化铝项目能效须达 到强制性能耗限额标准先进值。新建多晶硅、锂电池正负极项目能效须 达到行业先进水平。（资料来源：同花顺 7x24 快讯） 2. 央行：人民银行开展 2600 亿元逆回购操作，公开市场实现净投放 2580 亿元。中国人民银行 5 月 30 日公告称，为维护月末流动性平稳，当日 人民银行以利率招标方式开展了 2600 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，中标利 率为 1.80%。由于今日有 20 亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放 2580 亿元。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 财政部：财政部今年将在香港发行 550 亿元人民币国债。经国务院批准 ...