行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：多条监管细 2024年6月14日 看好/维持 则落地，资本市场环境有望持续优 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 化 证 券 证券：6月3日至6月7日一周市场日均成交额环比增加约300亿至0.77万 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 亿；两融余额（6月7日）环比下降约200亿至1.5万亿。继新“国九条”颁 无 份 布后，多部门就发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出，房地产政策效果也 行业基本资料 占比% 有 有望逐步显现。同时，更多的监管细则也在持续落地中，6月7日证监会就《中 限 股票家数 82 1.79% 国证监会行政处罚裁量基本规则(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见，作为事后监管 公 行业市值(亿元) 52958.52 6.32% 的重要指导性文件，明确处罚细则能起到震慑违法违规行为的作用，有望降低 司 流通市值(亿元) 40968.47 6.08% 相关行为的发生率。而三大交易所起草《程序化交易管理实施细则（征求意见 证 稿）》，则是对交易行为加强管理，通过监管规范和实时监控等方式严控交易风 行业平均市盈率 17.52 / 券 险，降低资本市场无序波动，市场环境有望持续优化。 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, specifically the analog chip sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The analog chip industry serves as a bridge between the digital and physical worlds, with a high design threshold and longer product lifecycle compared to digital integrated circuits [1][14]. - The global analog chip market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by growth in sectors such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and electric vehicles [3][27]. - Major applications for analog chips include communications, industrial, and automotive sectors, each accounting for over 20% of the market [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Analog Chips: Bridging Digital and Physical Worlds - Analog chips are composed of resistors, capacitors, and transistors, processing continuous analog signals [1][14]. - They can be categorized into general-purpose and application-specific analog chips, with the latter having a higher complexity and integration level [17]. 2. Global Analog Chip Industry Growth Prospects - The analog IC market is projected to grow from $83.91 billion in 2023 to $91.26 billion in 2024, with a long-term forecast of reaching $129.69 billion by 2029 [3][27]. - The automotive sector, particularly the electric vehicle market, is expected to be a significant growth driver, with 2023 sales of 9.495 million units in China, a 37.9% year-on-year increase [2][23]. 3. Insights from Leading Companies: Texas Instruments and Analog Devices - Texas Instruments (TI) holds a 19% market share, while Analog Devices (ADI) has approximately 9% [3][28]. - Both companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures over the past decade, with TI's CAPEX rising from $410 million in 2013 to $5.07 billion in 2023 [3][34]. 4. Domestic Analog Chip Market Dynamics - Domestic companies like 圣邦股份 (Silan Microelectronics) and 希荻微 (Higreen) are leading in the analog chip design sector, with significant revenue growth reported in Q1 2024 [6]. - The domestic market is characterized by a competitive landscape, with various companies focusing on different segments such as power management and signal chain chips [6][21]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies in the analog IC sector, including 圣邦股份, 思瑞浦, 希荻微, 南芯科技, 艾为电子, and 芯海科技, to capitalize on growth opportunities [7].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴宏观】点阵图符合市场预期——6 月美国 FOMC 点评（20240613） 摘要： 主要观点： 点阵图收紧明显，降息中位数降至一次。 降息节点：参考时间节点可为核心 CPI 环比跌落 0.3%平台保持 2~3 个月，若 保持 5 月通胀态势，9 月降息概率不低。 降息幅度：美联储降息诉求为政策利率匹配回落的通胀水平，本轮预防性降 息幅度有限，首先考虑 50bp。 降息窗口：窗口较窄，三四季度为传统消费旺季，降息过晚可能会遇到经济 尚可但通胀回落放缓的不利降息的局面。 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.65~3.85%，上限 4.6~4.85%；美股维持短期 没有明显风险点，长期中性。 风险提示：海外通胀超预期，海外经济衰退。 （分析师：康明怡 执业编码：S1480519090001 电话：021-25102911） 事件：美团发布 2024Q1 业绩公告。2024Q1，公司实现营业收入 732.8 亿元 （yoy+25.0%），净利润 53.7 亿元，去年同期盈利 33.6 亿元，经调整净利润 74.9 亿元，去年同期盈利 ...

Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in September is significant if the core CPI shows a month-on-month decline of 0.3% for 2-3 consecutive months[1] - The median forecast for rate cuts has decreased from 75 basis points (bp) to 25 bp, indicating a tightening in the dot plot[2] - The dot plot reflects the current economic data and may change with future data, serving as a confirmation of market expectations rather than a definitive plan[2] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is 2.84% year-on-year, which is above the 2% threshold, suggesting a stable economic environment[3] - April's CPI year-on-year is at 3.3%, remaining within the historical normal range of 3-3.8% for 11 consecutive months[3] - A preventive rate cut is deemed reasonable due to the current economic cycle characteristics, including a decline in income growth for middle and high-income groups[4] Bond Market Insights - The lower limit for the US 10-year Treasury yield is maintained at 3.65-3.85%, with an upper limit of 4.6-4.85%[6] - The likelihood of the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5% again this year is low, as the market does not anticipate further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected inflation abroad and the possibility of an economic recession[7] - The current economic environment suggests that while short-term recession risks are low, long-term market bubbles may re-emerge, similar to the tech bubble of 1997-2000[26]

行 业 研 究 食品饮料行业：关注价格回升对酒 2024年6月13日 看好/维持 类价格影响 东 食品饮料 行业报告 兴 证 券 再通胀发生积极变化。5月CPI 环比小幅回落 0.1%，同比稳定在 0.3%，扣 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，继续保持温和上涨。受部分国 无 份 际大宗商品价格上行及国内工业品市场供需关系改善等因素影响，全国 PPI 有 环比由降转涨，同比降幅收窄。从环比看，PPI由上月下降0.2%转为上涨0.2%， 行业基本资料 占比% 限 改变了前6个月连续下降趋势。同比回暖至-1.4%。 股票家数 126 2.74% 公 司 食品价格涨跌互现，CPI渐企稳。从同比看，5月CPI上涨0.3%，其中食品 行业市值(亿元) 49132.39 5.86% 证 价格下降2.0%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.37个 流通市值(亿元) 47451.26 7.04% 券 百分点。食品中，猪肉、淡水鱼和鲜菜价格分别上涨 4.6%、3.3%和 2.3%， 行业平均市盈率 22.59 / 研 涨幅均有扩大；鸡蛋、鲜果和食用油价格分别下降 8 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company Involved - Mingde Software Key Points and Arguments - Mingde Software was acquired by the company through an investment of 15.3 million RMB, which represents a 55% equity stake, allowing the company to gain control over Mingde Software [1] - Mingde Software has been included in the company's consolidated financial statements since January 2012, marking it as a subsidiary [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The acquisition reflects the company's strategy to expand its portfolio and strengthen its market position through strategic investments in software companies [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry as it only contains a statement indicating that the meeting is ready to start [1]. Core Points and Arguments - No core points or arguments are provided in the document as it does not contain substantive content [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document does not include any additional information or context that could be considered important [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [15][19]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Meituan achieved a revenue of 732.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.0%. The net profit was 53.7 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit of 74.9 billion CNY, up from 54.9 billion CNY in the same period last year [15][16]. - The core local business revenue reached 546.3 billion CNY, growing by 27.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in delivery services, commission income, and online marketing services [16][19]. - New business revenue was 186.5 billion CNY, an increase of 18.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in operational losses due to improved warehouse operations and marketing efficiency [16][19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2022A Revenue: 2199.5 billion CNY, 2023A Revenue: 2767.4 billion CNY, 2024E Revenue: 3186.7 billion CNY [7]. - 2022A Net Profit: -66.9 billion CNY, 2023A Net Profit: 138.6 billion CNY, 2024E Net Profit: 265.8 billion CNY [7]. - Operating Metrics: - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was 52.1 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 7.1% [16]. - The gross margin improved to 35.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [16][19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the core local business and improvements in new business operations, with projected net profits of 265.8 billion CNY, 385.4 billion CNY, and 492.3 billion CNY for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [19].

Core Insights - The introduction of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" aims to enforce strict new project approvals, requiring new lithium battery anode and cathode projects to meet industry-leading efficiency standards [1][9][22] - The plan will gradually lift restrictions on new energy vehicle purchases across various regions, promote electrification in public sector vehicles, and initiate pilot projects for the electrification of coastal and inland river vessels [1][9][22] Investment Strategy - In the photovoltaic sector, as the process of eliminating excess capacity accelerates, industry chain prices are expected to bottom out in Q2. It is recommended to focus on auxiliary materials, integrated component companies, and inverters, with key stocks including Tongling Co. and Sunshine Power [2][23] - In the lithium battery sector, attention should be given to the resilient profitability of battery segments and the potential profitability turning point in the anode and cathode materials segment. Recommended stocks include Guoxuan High-Tech, benefiting companies include CATL, Longpan Technology, and Shantou Technology [2][23] Important Company News - The report highlights the active promotion of higher quality development in the new energy vehicle industry, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing industry competitiveness and sustainability [3][41] Monthly Industry News - In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870,000 and 850,000 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.9% and 33.5%. Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 114,000 units, up 13.3% year-on-year [10][35] - The overall performance of the energy storage market in Q1 2024 was relatively weak, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%. However, the second quarter is expected to see a rebound in energy storage cell shipments based on production plans from energy storage cell companies [10][35] Industry Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed measures to consolidate and expand the advantages of the new energy vehicle industry, actively promoting higher quality development [41]

行 业 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业：节能降碳 2024年6月12日 看好/维持 方案推出，锂电行业供需两侧有望 东 电力设备及新 行业报告 兴 迎来量利改善 能源 证 券 摘要： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 无 份 市场回顾：2024年5月，电力设备及新能源板块（CI005011）上涨0.18%， 行业基本资料 占比% 有 同期沪深300指数下跌0.68%。 限 行业重要事件：《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》提出严格新增项目准入， 股票家数 242 5.27% 公 新建锂电池正负极项目能效须达到行业先进水平；逐步取消各地新能源汽车购 行业市值(亿元) 41150.48 4.9% 司 买限制，推动公共领域车辆电动化，有序推广新能源中重型货车，推动开展沿 流通市值(亿元) 35259.26 5.23% 证 海内河船舶电气化改造工程试点。 行业平均市盈率 24.42 / 券 我们认为《方案》的推出，有望引导锂电产业链高质量发展，对产业链的量利 行业指数走势图 研 边际改善均存在较为积极的作用，从量的维度，有望在进一步提振现有乘用车 究 需求的同时，延伸锂电应用场景，引导释放商用车与船舶领域的电动化需求， ...