东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------------|--------------------------------|----------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 | 2024 年 | 11 月 15 | 日星期五 | | 【东兴宏观】核心通胀粘性仍在，但无碍年内降息节奏——美国 10 月 CPI | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 数据点评（ 20241115 ） | 上证指数 | | 3,330.73 | -1.45 | | 主要观点： | 深证成指 | | 10,748.97 | -2.62 | | | 创业板 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival saw a significant sales increase, with total sales reaching 14,418 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 26.6%, reversing the previous year's low growth [2] - E-commerce platforms remain the primary sales channels, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms achieving sales of 11,093 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, while live e-commerce platforms grew by 54.6% to 3,325 billion yuan [2] - The beauty and personal care sector showed a strong recovery during the Double Eleven event, with sales on comprehensive e-commerce platforms reaching 963 billion yuan, a growth of 22.5% [2][4] - Domestic beauty brands are gaining market share, with several achieving significant sales growth during the event, while international brands are increasing discounts to maintain competitiveness [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail industry has a total of 93 listed companies with a market value of 768.77 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 677.85 billion yuan [1] - The average industry price-to-earnings ratio is 61.59 [1] Sales Performance - Major product categories during the Double Eleven included home appliances, mobile devices, clothing, personal care, and shoes/bags, with home appliances and mobile devices leading in both scale and growth [2] - The top five categories by sales growth were home appliances (26.5%), mobile devices (23.1%), personal care (22.5%), clothing (21.4%), and sports/outdoor (18.6%) [2] Key Companies - Notable domestic beauty brands such as Perlay, Juzibio, and Shangmei reported impressive sales during the Double Eleven, with Perlay achieving top sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [4] - Perlay's main brand saw sales growth of over 10% on Tmall and over 60% on Douyin, while its sub-brand ranked second on Tmall with a growth of over 30% [4] - Juzibio's sales increased by 80% across all channels, with significant growth on Tmall and Douyin [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic beauty brands with strong product capabilities and brand strength, such as Perlay and Beitaini, as well as companies like Juzibio and Marumi that are positioned in high-potential market segments [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - In October 2024, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase, while the decline in second and third-tier cities narrowed [2][3] - The new residential sales price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month in October, an improvement from the previous decline of 0.7% [2] - The year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for first-tier cities narrowed to 4.6%, while second-tier cities saw an increase in the decline to 6.0% [4] Summary by Sections Month-on-Month Data - In October, first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, with a growth rate of 0.4%, compared to a previous decline of 1.2% [3] - The month-on-month growth rates for new residential sales prices in first-tier cities were -0.2%, while second and third-tier cities both recorded -0.5% [2] Year-on-Year Data - The year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for 70 cities was -6.2%, slightly worse than the previous -6.1% [4] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices for first-tier cities was -9.6%, an improvement from -10.7% previously [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus has shifted from stabilizing to promoting stability in the real estate market, indicating a positive outlook for core city markets [5] - Key real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, and Greentown China are expected to benefit from the supportive policies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - In October, the year-on-year decline in new home sales and funds received significantly narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [3][4] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2024 showed a year-on-year growth rate of -15.8%, an improvement from -17.1% in the previous period [1] - The cumulative sales amount for the same period decreased by -20.9%, compared to -22.7% previously, with October's sales area and amount showing declines of -1.6% and -1.0% respectively [1] - The average sales price in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of -5.9% in the previous month [1] Summary by Sections Sales - The cumulative sales area for January to October 2024 is -15.8%, improving from -17.1% [1] - October's sales area decline was -1.6%, compared to -11.0% previously [1] - The cumulative sales amount decreased by -20.9%, with October showing a decline of -1.0% [1] - The average sales price in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year [1] Development Investment - The cumulative new construction area from January to October 2024 decreased by -22.6%, slightly worsening from -22.2% [2] - The cumulative completion area showed a year-on-year decline of -23.9%, an improvement from -24.4% [2] - Development investment decreased by -10.3% cumulatively, compared to -10.1% previously [2] - In October, the new construction area declined by -26.7%, while the completion area decreased by -20.1% [2] Funds Received - The cumulative funds received by real estate developers decreased by -19.2%, improving from -20.0% [3] - In October, the year-on-year decline in funds received was -10.8%, compared to -18.4% previously [3] - Domestic loans showed a decline of -8.8%, improving from -14.4% [3] - Personal mortgage loans also decreased by -8.8%, an improvement from -26.0% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus has shifted from stabilization to promoting stability, which is expected to positively impact the core city markets [3] - High-quality real estate companies in core cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, are likely to benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights that the increased support for high-quality real estate companies with market capabilities will provide good credit support [3]

Inflation Data - The US October CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and remained at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with forecasts[2] Interest Rate Outlook - The anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December remains unaffected by inflation trends, with potential for rates to approach 4% if inflation risks decline[2][4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with models indicating it will not breach 5%[6] Market Sentiment - The stock market outlook is neutral to slightly positive, with long-term positions unchanged and short-term positions to be considered post-election[7] - The current economic environment suggests a stable inflation level, which supports the ongoing interest rate cut cycle without significant pressure[5] Economic Indicators - Housing prices contributed over 50% to inflation in October, indicating a tight housing market despite slight month-on-month easing[3] - Core inflation's seasonal rebound is viewed positively, reflecting a healthy economic state, particularly as the economy enters the traditional consumption peak in Q3 and Q4[3][5]

东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2024年第46周 P1 首席周观点：2024 年第 46 周2024 年 11 月 14 日 首席观点 周度观点 刘航 | 东兴证券电子行业首席分析师 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 电子行业：智驾芯片行业的春天 Q1：智能驾驶芯片是什么？MCU 及 SoC 是两种典型的计算芯片。MCU 是指一种只包含单个 CPU （中央处理器）作为处理器的传统电路设计。SoC 指片上系统，即一种集成电路设计，将特 定应用或功能所需的所有必要组件及子系统集成到单个微芯片，包括将 CPU、GPU（图形处理 器）、ASIC（专用集成电路）及其他组件集成到单个芯片。SoC 凭借计算能力提升、数据传 输效率提高、芯片使用量减少、软件升级更灵活等多项优势，已成为汽车芯片设计及应用的 主流趋势。 Q2：智驾 SOC 芯片的优点与挑战? SOC 具有减少体积、减少成本、低功耗高性能、提升系统 功能的优点；但面临了制造瓶颈、封装瓶颈、测试瓶颈等方便的挑战。 Q3：智能芯片的技术趋势是怎样的? 去 MCU 需要一定时间，立即去除 MCU 可 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴金属及金属新材料】西部矿业（601168.SH）：持续优化的多金属采选 冶一体化西部龙头（II）-冶炼及多元板块拆分梳理（20241113） 投资要点： 铜冶炼产能受益于项目技改升级而逐步提高,。公司旗下青海铜业与西部铜材 负责铜冶炼的生产运营。2024 年西部铜材实施节能环保升级改造项目，采用 大极板和永久阴极的电解生产工艺，增加 10 万吨阴极铜年产能，实现铜电解 提质降耗及环保节能升级。预计 2024 年末，公司将形成电解铜产能 30 万吨/ 年（青海铜业与西部铜材各 15 万吨）。2019-2023 年期间，公司电解铜产量 CAGR 为 6.8%，由 2019 年的 14.04 万吨升至 2023 年的 18. 3 万吨。我们预计 2024 年公司或生产电解铜 21.79 万吨，同比增长 19.1%。 多金属改造项目助力铅锌冶炼产能升级。西豫金属与青海湘和分别负责铅与 锌的冶炼生产运营。2024 年，西豫金属开展环保升级及多金属综合循环利用 改造项目，计划于 9 月末试生产，投产后将形成电铅 20 万吨/年、金锭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 652 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.03%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -99.09 million yuan, a decline of 229.47% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Mini-LED backlight display module market, particularly in the automotive sector, which is expected to grow significantly [3][4]. - The company is optimizing its product structure and investing in new energy vehicles and smart connected vehicles, aiming to enhance profitability through diversified product offerings [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 10.25%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 0.80 percentage points. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 10.67%, down 3.74 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was -31.41 million yuan, which is a reduction in loss compared to Q2 2024. The operating cash flow was -9.63 million yuan, a decline of 112.04% year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The global Mini-LED backlight module market is projected to reach 5.7 billion USD by 2026, with the automotive Mini-LED products already in mass production as of June 2024 [3]. - The personal computer market is expected to recover, with an estimated shipment of 267 million units in 2024, a growth of 8% from 2023 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is strategically investing 170 million yuan to establish a fund focused on new energy vehicles and smart connected vehicles, aiming to strengthen its supply chain [4]. - The company is enhancing its operational management to reduce costs and improve efficiency, thereby increasing production yield and developing high-value-added products [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has shown significant growth in oil and gas production, with a healthy cash flow and promising growth potential for the future [1][2][3] - In the first three quarters of 2024, CNOOC achieved total operating revenue of RMB 326.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 116.66 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company signed four new offshore oil exploration contracts in Brazil, expanding its overseas exploration potential [1][6] Group 2 - Oil and gas sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately RMB 271.43 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved net production of 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [2][3] - The company maintained a competitive cost advantage, with the main cost per barrel of oil at USD 28.14, remaining stable year-on-year [3] Group 3 - CNOOC's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.9% year-on-year to RMB 182.77 billion, indicating stable cash flow [3][6] - The company has increased capital expenditures, with capital spending of approximately RMB 95.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [6][7] - The report forecasts that CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 will be RMB 434.99 billion, RMB 461.22 billion, and RMB 487.60 billion, with net profits of RMB 145.94 billion, RMB 155.04 billion, and RMB 167.93 billion respectively [8] Group 4 - CNOOC's dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 43.5%, and the expected average dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be 4.34% [8] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for CNOOC, emphasizing its strong cost control capabilities and stable performance [8] Group 5 - The report indicates that CNOOC's new projects, including the development of the Bohai Zhong 19-2 oil field and the Payara project in Guyana, are expected to contribute to its long-term growth [7][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the global economic outlook, which is expected to maintain weak growth, while China's economy shows a long-term positive trend [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has established a stable mining operation and a vertically integrated industrial chain, covering mining, non-ferrous metallurgy, financial trading, and salt lake chemicals, making it a significant player in the western region of China [2][14] - The copper smelting capacity is expected to increase due to technological upgrades, with a projected production of 217,900 tons of electrolytic copper in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [2][19] - The multi-metal transformation projects are enhancing lead and zinc smelting capacities, with expected production of 128,800 tons of zinc ingots in 2024, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year [3][23] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in May 2000 and has successfully achieved a vertically integrated layout across its operations, focusing on copper, lead, zinc, and iron resources [14] - The company has a strong research capability, with 36 national patents filed, including 5 invention patents [14] 2. Smelting Capacity Upgrades - The copper smelting segment is seeing improvements through energy-saving upgrades, with a total electrolytic copper capacity expected to reach 300,000 tons per year by the end of 2024 [19] - The lead and zinc smelting segment is undergoing multi-metal recycling upgrades, with lead production capacity expected to double to 200,000 tons per year [3][23] 3. Salt Lake Chemical Industry - The company is actively involved in the construction of a world-class salt lake industry base, with significant magnesium salt resources and a projected annual production of 500,000 tons [4][27] - In 2023, the company's magnesium products generated revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.29% [4][27] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 49.62 billion yuan, 55.08 billion yuan, and 60.92 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.84 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan, and 5.49 billion yuan [4][7] - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.61 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.30 yuan, with PE ratios of 9.49X, 7.86X, and 6.65X [4][7] 5. Trading and Financial Services - The company has subsidiaries focused on metal trading and financial services, contributing to risk management and market opportunities [33][34] - In 2023, the metal trading segment generated revenue of 13.02 billion yuan, accounting for 30.7% of total revenue, while the financial services segment had a revenue of 250 million yuan, with a high gross margin of 88.86% [33][34]