[Table_Page] 中报点评|保险Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 | | & | 海 外 】 友 邦 保 险 | | | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 303.4 HKD per share, reflecting a potential upside based on expected market recovery and valuation adjustments [3][13]. Core Insights - The company reported stable overall performance for the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 10.621 billion HKD, remaining flat compared to the same period last year. The core average daily turnover (ADT) was 1,104 billion HKD, down 3% year-on-year, indicating a stagnation in trading activity [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for LME contracts, which offset declines in spot market revenues. The investment income continued to provide a hedge against market fluctuations, with net returns from margin and settlement funds rising to 1.64% [6][13]. - The ETF and benchmark derivatives segments showed continued growth, with average daily trading volumes for ETPs reaching a new high of 144 billion HKD, up 4% year-on-year. The report also notes the introduction of new ETPs, including the first covered call options ETF and the first virtual asset spot ETF in Asia [6][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million HKD): - 2022: 18,456 - 2023: 20,516 - 2024E: 22,177 - 2025E: 23,682 - 2026E: 25,452 - Growth Rate (%): - 2023: 11.2% - 2024E: 8.1% - 2025E: 6.8% - 2026E: 7.5% [2][6]. - Net Profit (million HKD): - 2022: 10,078 - 2023: 11,862 - 2024E: 12,798 - 2025E: 13,669 - 2026E: 14,694 - EPS (HKD/share): - 2022: 7.96 - 2023: 9.37 - 2024E: 10.11 - 2025E: 10.80 - 2026E: 11.61 [2][6]. Business Segment Performance - The report indicates a decline in trading fees and listing revenues, with trading fees from stock products at 1.424 billion HKD, down 7% year-on-year. However, LME trading fees increased significantly, with a 30% rise in trading volumes for fee-based metal contracts [8][10]. - The derivatives segment saw a 16% decrease in trading fees, but the average daily contract volume for key products like the Hang Seng Tech Index futures increased by 15% [10][12]. - The investment income from the company's projects rose from 4.80% in 2023H1 to 5.33% in 2024H1, contributing positively to overall financial performance despite a decline in margin levels [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 10.54 CNY and a target value of 13.27 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.13 billion CNY in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit of 140 million CNY, up 72.4% year-on-year [6]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 25.1 billion CNY, 30.2 billion CNY, and 35.4 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 3.0 billion CNY, 3.8 billion CNY, and 4.4 billion CNY [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 1462 - 2023A: 2065 - 2024E: 2513 - 2025E: 3016 - 2026E: 3544 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2022A: 31.6% - 2023A: 41.3% - 2024E: 21.7% - 2025E: 20.0% - 2026E: 17.5% [2][9]. - EBITDA (in million CNY): - 2022A: 165 - 2023A: 304 - 2024E: 412 - 2025E: 516 - 2026E: 594 [2]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 125 - 2023A: 210 - 2024E: 299 - 2025E: 379 - 2026E: 441 [2]. - EPS (CNY/share): - 2022A: 0.31 - 2023A: 0.48 - 2024E: 0.66 - 2025E: 0.84 - 2026E: 0.98 [2][9]. - P/E Ratio: - 2022A: 38.01 - 2023A: 25.61 - 2024E: 15.88 - 2025E: 12.55 - 2026E: 10.77 [2][9]. - ROE (%): - 2022A: 12.9% - 2023A: 16.0% - 2024E: 20.3% - 2025E: 20.5% - 2026E: 20.1% [2][9].

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 税友股份（603171.SH） B 端进展较好，G 端减亏预期不变 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司披露 2024H1 财报。24H1 公司实现营收 8.14 亿元，同比+7.5%， 归母净利润 8824 万元，同比+0.9%，扣非归母净利润 8288 万元，同 比+17.8%；其中 24Q2 营收 4.52 亿元，同比+5.7%，归母净利润 5546 万元，同比-0.04%，扣非归母净利润-5586 万元，同比+20.2%。 ⚫ B 端经营较好，付费客户数稳健增长，合同负债同比增长 9.8%。（1） 上半年 B 端实现营收 5.5 亿元，同比+10.4%，实现净利润 1.5 亿元， 同比+11.0%，整体净利率 26.5%，较 2023 年提升 3.9pct；（2）用户 数保持稳健增长，活跃用户数较 23 年底增长 9.8%至 900 万户，付费 用户数较 23 年底增长 8.3%至 615 万户；（3）合同负债层面，以数智 财税服务云业务为主，24H1 合同负债总额为 7.1 亿元，同比增长 9.8%。 ⚫ G 端维持 24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $14.96 per ADS based on a 6X PE valuation for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of 26.9 billion RMB in Q2 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, while the non-GAAP net profit was 2.2 billion RMB, down 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 23.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost control and improved operational efficiency [1]. - The company’s active customer base decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to 44.3 million, while the GMV remained flat at 50.6 billion RMB [1]. - The company has initiated a stock buyback of $2 billion and announced a new $1 billion stock repurchase plan, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 110.3 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 2.2% compared to 2023 [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.48 billion RMB, 9.78 billion RMB, and 10.12 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.3%, +3.1%, and +3.4% [2]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be 10.59 billion RMB, with a P/E ratio of 4.6 [2].

[Table_Title] 富途控股（FUTU） 入金强劲驱动增长，全球化布局持续深化 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 交投活跃及入金强劲驱动业绩超预期增长。富途控股发布 2024 年中期 业绩，2024Q2 单季度营收 31.29 亿港元，同比+26%，环比+21%；单 季度净利润 12.09 亿港元，同比+8%，环比+17%。主要系客户资产增 长带动经纪佣金收入高增，24Q2 新增客户 15.5 万户，同比+167.8%， 环比-12%；客户资产同比+24.3%达到 5793 亿港元，主因马来西亚、 日本、新加坡及香港获客增长强劲；Q2 户均客户资产 28.4 万港元， 同比-4%，环比+3%；Q2 客户成交额同比+69%至 1.62 万亿港元，主 因其中美股成交同比+83%。 ⚫ 公司持续深化全球化布局并持续优化产品品类。公司 Q2 经纪佣金收 入 13.76 亿港元，同比+44%，佣金率环比略有回升。据公司披露，日 本计划上线 NISA 账户、共同基金等，马来西亚三季度计划上线马股 IPO 打新、货币基金产品，香港新加坡的加密货币渗透率仍有增长空 间。公司 Q2 末融资融券余额 438 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health, with a target price of HKD 35.34 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 21.40 [3]. Core Views - JD Health reported a strong performance in H1 2024, achieving revenue of RMB 28.344 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The pharmaceutical and health product sales segment generated RMB 23.910 billion, up 3.2%, while platform, advertising, and other services saw revenue of RMB 4.434 billion, growing by 12.5% [2][3]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 2.037 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 30.5%. The Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 2.644 billion, up 8.5%, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 9.3% [2]. - JD Health is actively attracting third-party merchants, which has positively impacted its 3P business and advertising revenue. The number of platform merchants has increased to 80,000, and the JD Medicine delivery service now covers over 490 cities [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are estimated at RMB 57.380 billion and RMB 62.651 billion, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 7.2% and 9.2% [5]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching RMB 2.245 billion in 2024 and RMB 2.977 billion in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 2.783 billion in 2024 and RMB 3.609 billion in 2025, with growth rates of 29.9% and 29.7% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 168.30 and a fair value of HKD 204.49 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.383 billion for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.2%. The profit for the period was RMB 310 million, marking a turnaround from losses, with an adjusted profit of RMB 386 million, up 1068% year-over-year. The company holds cash and financial assets totaling RMB 2.885 billion, a 15.9% increase from the previous year [2]. - The drug SKB264 is expected to receive domestic approval within the year, with Merck having initiated 10 global Phase III trials. The company has several ongoing clinical trials for various indications, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline of Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs), with A166 having submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) in China, and other candidates in various stages of development [2]. - The financial forecast estimates revenues of RMB 1.655 billion, RMB 1.786 billion, and RMB 2.366 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The ADC platform is considered globally competitive, and a DCF valuation yields a fair value of HKD 204.49 per share [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.383 billion, with a profit of RMB 310 million, compared to a loss in the previous year. The adjusted profit was RMB 386 million [2]. - The revenue growth rates for the years 2022 to 2026 are projected at 2387.3%, 91.6%, 7.4%, 7.9%, and 32.5%, respectively [2][6]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be negative in the coming years, with a projected net profit of RMB -728 million in 2024 and improving to RMB -663 million by 2026 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Gushengtang (02273 HK) with a target price of HKD 48 11 per share based on a 25X PE multiple for its 2024 NonGaap net profit [2][4] Core Views - Gushengtang achieved rapid growth in H1 2024 with revenue of RMB 1 365 billion (+38 4% YoY) and adjusted net profit of RMB 148 million (+45 3% YoY) demonstrating strong operational capabilities and the vast potential of the TCM chain clinic model [2] - The company is expanding rapidly through both self-built and M&A strategies adding 4 new self-built clinics and acquiring dozens of offline medical institutions including Kunshan Laien and Beijing Asian Games Village TCM Hospital It has also entered new cities like Changsha and Xuzhou and expanded internationally with the acquisition of Singapore-based Baozhongtang [2] - Gushengtang announced its first interim dividend of HKD 0 13 per share to be distributed on September 25 2024 and repurchased approximately 860 000 shares for HKD 33 77 million in June 2024 to boost investor confidence [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 2 323 billion in 2023 to RMB 5 594 billion in 2026 with a CAGR of 32 7% [3][8] - NonGaap net profit is expected to increase from RMB 305 million in 2023 to RMB 763 million in 2026 with a CAGR of 32 4% [3][8] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 30 6%-31 4% from 2024 to 2026 [9] Expansion and Strategy - Gushengtang's offline TCM clinics now cover 19 cities domestically and internationally with 72 branches as of June 2024 [2] - The company is accelerating its city-level penetration and new city expansion while also pursuing international growth through acquisitions [2] Valuation and Metrics - The report values Gushengtang at a 25X PE multiple for its 2024 NonGaap net profit resulting in a target price of HKD 48 11 per share [2] - Key valuation metrics include a projected NonGaap PE of 18 7X for 2024 and an EV/EBITDA of 11 5X for the same year [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Telecom, with a target price of 7.34 CNY per share for A-shares and 4.98 HKD per share for H-shares [2][6]. Core Views - China Telecom reported a revenue of 266 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. Service revenue reached 246.2 billion CNY, up 4.3% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.8 billion CNY, reflecting an 8.2% YoY growth. The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 70% [1][6]. - The mobile communication service revenue grew against the trend, with a revenue of 105.2 billion CNY, up 3.6% YoY. The value-added services and applications segment saw a significant increase of 17.1% YoY, generating 18.1 billion CNY. The penetration rate of 5G users increased by 14.3 percentage points YoY, and the average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile users rose to 46.3 CNY [1][6]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its digital information infrastructure, with capital expenditures amounting to 47.2 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, which is 49.2% of the annual guidance. Investments in industrial digitalization reached 16.1 billion CNY, accounting for 34% of total capital expenditures [1][6]. - The report forecasts net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 to be 33.0 billion CNY, 35.5 billion CNY, and 38.1 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.36 CNY, 0.39 CNY, and 0.42 CNY [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2024: 266 billion CNY (YoY +2.8%) - Service Revenue: 246.2 billion CNY (YoY +4.3%) - Net Profit: 21.8 billion CNY (YoY +8.2%) - Capital Expenditure: 47.2 billion CNY (YoY +13.5%) [1][6]. Business Segments - Mobile Communication Revenue: 105.2 billion CNY (YoY +3.6%) - Value-added Services Revenue: 18.1 billion CNY (YoY +17.1%) - Fixed-line Smart Home Revenue: 64 billion CNY (YoY +3.2%) - Cloud Services Revenue: 55.2 billion CNY (YoY +20.4%) [1][6]. Investment Outlook - Expected Net Profit: 33.0 billion CNY in 2024, 35.5 billion CNY in 2025, 38.1 billion CNY in 2026 - Target Price: 7.34 CNY for A-shares, 4.98 HKD for H-shares - Maintained "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [2][6].