[Table_Title] 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 2 季度业绩表现亮眼，高质量发展稳步推进 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 业绩表现略超市场预期，上半年实现扭亏为盈。2024 年上半年，公司 实现营收 568.66 亿元（yoy+9.63%）；归母净利润为 8.29 亿元 （yoy+129.84%），业绩大幅增长主要源于猪价上涨以及养殖成本下行 等；扣非后归母净利润为 8.79 亿元，非经常性损益主要为资产处置损 益等。截至 6 月底，公司资产负债率为 61.8%，较 1 季度末下降 1.8 个百分点。单 2 季度，公司归母净利润为 32.08 亿元，实现扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 24 年上半年生猪出栏同比增长，养殖成本持续下行。24 年上半年，公 司累计销售生猪 3238.8 万头（yoy+7.0%）；其中商品猪/仔猪/种猪出 栏量分别为 2898/309/31 万头；估算上半年头均利润为 30-40 元/头。 单 2 季度，公司出栏生猪 1637.8 万头（yoy-0.3%）；估算 2 季度公司 养殖完全成本约 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，头均利润约 220-240 元/头。公司 养殖管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.17 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 15.65 CNY [3]. Core Insights - SANY Heavy Industry has demonstrated a long-term return that outperforms Caterpillar, with annualized returns of 19% and 13% respectively from 2004 to present [12]. - The company has successfully navigated multiple industry cycles, enhancing its market capitalization to consistently exceed 100 billion CNY [12]. - SANY's strategic focus on high-margin markets has allowed it to expand its product offerings from concrete machinery to excavators and international markets, achieving significant market share [12]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic excavator market and has achieved the highest export volume among domestic construction machinery manufacturers in 2023 [12]. - SANY's operational quality is highlighted by its ability to generate high gross margins through lifecycle cost savings for customers and a focus on suitable market segments [12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The domestic market for construction machinery is entering a replacement phase, with a projected recovery in demand [12]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8 billion, and 10.1 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 30%, and 26% respectively [2]. - The report suggests a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2024, leading to a reasonable valuation of 18.17 CNY per share [12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - SANY Heavy Industry has undergone three significant phases of development, transitioning from a focus on concrete machinery to becoming a leader in excavators and expanding into international markets [16][18]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has achieved a dominant position in the domestic market for excavators and concrete pumps, with market shares exceeding 25% and 50% respectively [13][19]. - SANY's acquisition of Putzmeister has significantly enhanced its global presence and product offerings, allowing it to leverage Putzmeister's established market networks [21][22]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022 was 80.839 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 81.123 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9.6% [2]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from 8.196 billion CNY in 2023 to 10.246 billion CNY in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [2]. Strategic Initiatives - SANY has implemented a combination of strategies to optimize its asset structure and improve cash flow, including the transfer of equity and receivables [29][30]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain and digital transformation to reduce costs and improve competitiveness [12].

[公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 6.33 元 合理价值 8.08 元 报告日期 2024-08-03 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 1989.20/1989.20 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 12591.7/12591.7 一年内最高/最低（元） 8.48/5.61 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） 9.35/58.15 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） -11.07/6.20 盈利预测： [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 11687 11244 11161 11334 11542 增长率（%） 15.6% -3.8% -0.7% 1.6% 1.8% EBITDA（百万元） 841 927 1204 1401 1543 归母净利润（百万元） 708 936 893 1044 1152 增长率（%） 10.6% 32.2% -4.6% 16.8% 10.4% EPS（元/股） 0.36 0.47 0.45 0.52 0.58 市盈率（P/E） 14.47 14.79 14.10 12.06 10.93 ROE ...

Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 Meta 上调 24 年 AI 投入，OpenAI 测试新语音模式 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪：根据 SimilarWeb，上周（2024/7/22 - 2024/7/28） 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi 533.94 万次，环比 下降 9.22%；文心一言 456.82 万次，环比上升 24.92%；通义 188.12 万次，环比下降 12.99%；豆包 211.62 万次，环比上升 14.06%；智谱 清言 90.96 万次，环比上升 7.38%；讯飞星火 54.60 万次，环比下 降 24.67%；天工 AI 56.38 万次，环比下降 21.30%；腾讯元宝 16.56 万次，环比下降 11.76%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，kimi 12.41 万次，环比上升 3.37%；文心一言 11.81 万次，环比下降 7.21%；通 义千问 37.83 万次，环比上升 14.23%；豆包 200.69 万次，环比下降 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业：24 年数据点评系列之十 24H1 重卡批发销量同比+3.3%，政策有望拉动下半年销量提升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 销量：24H1 重卡批发、终端、出口分别同比+3.3%、-5.5%、+8.4%。 据中汽协，6 月重卡批发销量 7.1 万辆，同比-17.5%，环比-8.7%；1- 6 月重卡累计批发销量 50.4 万辆，同比+3.3%。据交强险，6 月重卡终 端销量 4.7 万辆，同比-4.3%，环比-12.3%：1-6 月重卡累计终端销量 30.1 万辆，同比-5.5%。据海关总署，6 月重卡出口 2.6 万辆，同比 -10.8%，环比-24.9%；1-6 月重卡累计出口 16.9 万辆，同比+8.4%。 6 月重卡出口俄罗斯以外地区 1.9 万辆，同比+6.4%、环比-20.2%；1- 6 月重卡累计出口俄罗斯以外地区 12.7 万辆，同比+28.6%。6 月重卡 出口俄罗斯 0.7 万辆，同比-38.9%、环比-35.7%；1-6 月重卡累计出口 俄罗斯 4.2 万辆，同比-26.8%。7 ...

[Table_Title] 房地产行业 发改投资〔2024〕1014 号文点评 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： C-REITs 试点范围继续扩容，简化申报流程推动常态化发行。其中试 点行业范围在原行业范围的基础上横向扩展，新增储能项目、燃煤发电 项目、公租房、长租公寓、4A 景区、养老设施等领域。简化审批流程 方面取消了项目前期辅导，将更多的前期准备工作下放至发行人；审 批要求从收益率导向（不动产 REITs 分派率不低于 3.8%，特许经营权 IRR 不低于 5%）变更为现金流导向（发行前 NOI 或 EBITDA 不低于 发行后的 70%），强调了 C-REITs 的权益属性，也对基础设施资产经 营稳定性提出了要求。另针对部分能源项目国补占比较大的问题，提 出近 3 年每年补贴金额占收入比例不超过 15%。最后，对于基础设施 难以切分的部分可一并纳入入池资产，拓宽了原始权益人的发行选择。 同时暂未处于试点行业的酒店可首次以附属设施的身份参与发行。 根据 Wind 数据，目前中国 C-REITs 数量上已超过新加坡，但相对市 场规模（市场规模占 GDP 的比例）仅为 0.09%，同发达市场相比仍 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|传媒 2024 年 8 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业 Meta：量价角度拆解全球社交龙头增长，深度布局 AI 构建新增长引擎 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 旷实 | 分析师： | 叶敏婷 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519110001 | SFC CE.no: BNV294 010-59136610 021-38003665 kuangshi@gf.com.cn yeminting@gf.com.cn 请注意，叶敏婷并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ Meta：全球社交龙头，产品矩阵丰富，持续迭代算法和产品功能。发展历程来看，Meta 以 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 7 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 微软财报显示，ROI 加速下探将加剧供应链预期波动 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 周源 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | SFC CE.no: BNX004 021-38003675 0755-23948351 gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 微软发布 FY24Q4 财报，业绩基本符合预期。根据财报，FY24 全年（截止至 2024 年 6 月 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 上 美 股 份 （02145.HK） 供应链+强运营难以复制，二三品牌起势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司发布盈利预告，24H1 预计收入 34-36 亿元，同比增长 114- 127%，预计 24H1 净利润 3.9-4.1 亿元，同比增长 286-306%。 ⚫ 点评：上半年业绩如期兑现，收入及利润增加主要由于公司主力品牌韩 束产生的收入多渠道快速增长及公司第二品牌梯队newpage一页的销 售业绩同比大幅增长。 ⚫ 业绩拆分：预计韩束翻倍以上增长，一页表现亮眼。24H1 预计韩束收 入翻倍以上增长，一页 2 倍以上增长，红色小象和一叶子仍下滑。根 据蝉妈妈数据，24H1 韩束抖音 GMV 同比+279%、一叶子抖音 GMV 同比+18%、红色小象抖音 GMV 同比+222%、一页抖音 GMV 同比 +209%。韩束抖音短剧独家运营模式，强供应链下套组高性价比，难 以被复制。董事长吕总给激励充分，公司新品牌多采取与创始人分享股 权的方式，以 new page 为例，30%的股权为章子怡持有。 ⚫ 盈利预测和投资建议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.74 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 25.38 CNY [3][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 1.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million CNY, up 104.5% year-on-year [1][9]. - The growth is driven by the expansion of the charging pile business and the recovery of traditional business segments, with expectations for continued robust performance in 2024 [1][10]. - The company has officially launched its factory in the United States, which is expected to enhance its charging pile business and meet local regulatory requirements [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.84 billion CNY, a 27.2% increase from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million CNY, reflecting a 104.5% increase [1][9]. - **Segment Performance**: The charging pile business continues to grow rapidly, while traditional business segments are expected to maintain steady growth. For instance, the software upgrade service generated 211 million CNY in revenue, a 26.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - **Future Projections**: The company forecasts net profits of 574 million CNY, 649 million CNY, and 783 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.27 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.73 CNY [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a reasonable valuation multiple of 25x PE for 2024, leading to a target price of 31.74 CNY per share [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 15.1% in 2024, increasing to 15.0% by 2026 [2][11].